Crypto Bubble

[NotSure]

Radical man!

The salary will be converted to Ethereum and Bitcoin, the statement added.

Then presumably converted straight back into dollars so he can pay his mortgage, taxes etc?

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Radical man!

The salary will be converted to Ethereum and Bitcoin, the statement added.

Then presumably converted straight back into dollars so he can pay his mortgage, taxes etc?

I guess so. Depends how persuasive he is. I certainly wouldn't want to mess with him.

[Clitheroekid]

NYC Mayor Eric Adams to receive first paycheck in cryptocurrency via Coinbase
Jan 20 (Reuters) - New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Thursday said his first paycheck, to arrive on Friday, will be automatically converted into cryptocurrency via Coinbase Global Inc (COIN.O).

The salary will be converted to Ethereum and Bitcoin, the statement added.

Well I hope he converted it quickly!

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/bitcoin-price/

[Pendrainllwyn]

Well I hope he converted it quickly!

Indeed.

I would be a wealthier man if I had allocated some of my financial resources to cryptocurrencies but investing in a "currency" that can lose 26.7% (Bitcoin) or 36.3% (Ethereum) of its value in 3 weeks (these are 2022 YTD price movements) for no too obvious a reason is too speculative for me even if it might double in the next 3 weeks. The same goes for non fungible tokens.

According to Coinbase, SpongeBob Square (SPONGS / HKD) meme token's price is down 74.6% in the last 24 hours and down 91.4% in the last week. At a price of only 0.0000000008 HKD per token how could it be anything other than a bargain?

Pendrainllwyn

[1nvest]

2018 and GBTC in US$ terms lost over -82%

Much of Btc seems to be ramping/dumping 'insider trading' that regulation would otherwise prohibit. Many of the plebs are enticed in after large up-runs, and bear the cost during the down-runs (sell out in despair after large losses).

[seekingbalance]

but investing in a "currency" that can lose 26.7% (Bitcoin) or 36.3% (Ethereum) of its value in 3 weeks (these are 2022 YTD price movements) for no too obvious a reason is too speculative for me even if it might double in the next 3 weeks. The same goes for non fungible tokens.

Pendrainllwyn

I don't entirely disagree, but as with many other posts on this sort of thing, you probably should look at other things in context. For example, I own shares in Fevertree, who just reported pretty good earnings (albeit their guidance was uncertain due to Covid) and they fell 20% yesterday and are down a further *% today - going from £28 to £20 in two days, or almost 30%. Similarly I have shares in ITM Power who just reported great results and a new contract signed just today - 5 days ago their shares were £3.20 - today they hit £2.30. At the beginning of January they were £4.12.

Three weeks ago Tesla was $1200 a share, and they just reported stellar earnings - today they are $800 - a 33% drop for one of the biggest companies in the world.

In risk off times, even good news is not enough to stop speculative shares, and indeed Cryptos, form being murdered if the market is in the process of a bit of panic and rotation. Blaming Crypto for that is unfair.

[seekingbalance]

Much of Btc seems to be ramping/dumping 'insider trading' that regulation would otherwise prohibit.

How can a crypto currency, with no business, no company running it, no "owners", no employees, have "insider trading"?

[NotSure]

Much of Btc seems to be ramping/dumping 'insider trading' that regulation would otherwise prohibit.

How can a crypto currency, with no business, no company running it, no "owners", no employees, have "insider trading"?

I cannot speak for 1nvest, but I assumed he was referring to the fact that there are a small number of individuals who hold vast amounts of BTC (known as 'whales'). They can trade between themselves and drive (manipulate) the market direction if they choose. This is apparently known to have happened in the past. Not sure if that is legal with shares? I would imagine this is even more true for 'altcoins', but I am speculating (no pun intended....).

[dealtn]

Much of Btc seems to be ramping/dumping 'insider trading' that regulation would otherwise prohibit.

How can a crypto currency, with no business, no company running it, no "owners", no employees, have "insider trading"?

I cannot speak for 1nvest, but I assumed he was referring to the fact that there are a small number of individuals who hold vast amounts of BTC (known as 'whales'). They can trade between themselves and drive (manipulate) the market direction if they choose. This is apparently known to have happened in the past. Not sure if that is legal with shares? I would imagine this is even more true for 'altcoins', but I am speculating (no pun intended....).

If "manipulation" was possible as you describe, and they are trading amongst themselves, and each own large holdings, why would one side of that trade "allow" themselves to be manipulated against?

[NotSure]

If "manipulation" was possible as you describe, and they are trading amongst themselves, and each own large holdings, why would one side of that trade "allow" themselves to be manipulated against?

AIUI, to start a cascade of panicky sellers so they can (both) mop up cheaper BTC. (Or vice versa - to generate FOMO so they can offload).


Hardly authoritative, but edited to add: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-crypto-whales-move-markets-nitin-kumar-/

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Two years on from the last post on this thread.....hmmm......

Is BTC still a bubble?

Cos it's rocketed of late. I'm assuming this is due of the launch of some ETFs to aimed as a simple vehicle to get a position.

Matt

[JohnB]

Er rocketing is a key feature of bubbles...

[Urbandreamer]

Two years on from the last post on this thread.....hmmm......

Is BTC still a bubble?

Cos it's rocketed of late. I'm assuming this is due of the launch of some ETFs to aimed as a simple vehicle to get a position.

Matt

Could be.
Isn't the size of those ETF's quite large. They are also continuing to see large inflows.
https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-etfs-c ... bloomberg/

The Bitcoin ETFs, though barely six weeks old, have taken in over $8 billion more than gold peers, already have 40% as much in assets and could pass them in size in less than two years.

I confess that I'm not as happy about the price increase as some may think.
It's causing me to give serious thought to CGT and accounting for my gains.

I've decided that I must spend some as a means to crystalize some of those gains.
Naturally I'll likely buy the bitcoin back again after a month.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Er rocketing is a key feature of bubbles...

Hmmm..... but from where I'm from they only deflate once

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

One only needs to look at BTC price from it's inception to now, to observe that, love it or hate it, the chart doesn't anything like a bubble (e.g. the tulip bulb craze).

(I hold zero crypto assets).

Matt

[scrumpyjack]

Talking this afternoon with an old friend of ours, who is a very hard working nurse. Her 19 yr old, a very nice, modest and level headed lad, is heavily into the crypto world, jetting around the world for meetings and conferences. She mentioned he had 10 bitcoin. Her reaction when I pointed out that was worth $600,000! wow. They are a family that thoroughly deserves some good fortune! Perhaps I should not have said anything?

[Scottex99]

Hi All,

Found myself here after a user posted a link in an MSE forum (not the Bitcoin thread) - cheers to whoever that was.

That Bitcoin thread is 300+ pages long filled with some very polarising views, as you can imagine.

I could do with brushing up on some TradFi things so I'm going to have a look around. I have an old work pension from UK, a private pension in Gibraltar (where I live now) and an HL account where I do some dabbling in S&S ISA stuff.

Probably more interesting, I've been working in Crypto since early 2018 and I'm the COO of a Gibraltar regulated crypto trading firm.

Looking forward to some heated debates with a fresh group of "Boomers"

[Urbandreamer]

Hi All,

Found myself here after a user posted a link in an MSE forum (not the Bitcoin thread) - cheers to whoever that was.

That Bitcoin thread is 300+ pages long filled with some very polarising views, as you can imagine.

I could do with brushing up on some TradFi things so I'm going to have a look around. I have an old work pension from UK, a private pension in Gibraltar (where I live now) and an HL account where I do some dabbling in S&S ISA stuff.

Probably more interesting, I've been working in Crypto since early 2018 and I'm the COO of a Gibraltar regulated crypto trading firm.

Looking forward to some heated debates with a fresh group of "Boomers"

Welcome to TLF.

Most on TLF are very TradFi, but a great bunch. You will find lots of helpful opinions with respect to equity investment and there are a couple of expats dealing with cross jurisdiction pensions and investments.

Things on this board have quieted down a bit as Bitcoin has moved from "whatever the media claims" to something some can invest in via an ETF (I said that they are TradFi). There are a few committed to the views expressed by Mr de Vries in the mainstream media, but for the most part we have accepted that debate on crypto serves no purpose. Hence you may find the debate a bit less heated or even present than you expect.

[Scottex99]

Thanks man.

Yep, I'll have a look around, I know the basics but have only ever really used HL so I guess I should educate myself on fees and different types of Funds etc.

Agreed on the crypto debate, and I see most of the threads are from at least a couple of months ago.

I quite like the discussions with the caveat that it needs a bit more substance than -

It's only used to money launder, and to buy drugs and guns vs it's going to 1m, HFSP.

How to you find the CGT aspect of it? I know plenty of people in the UK struggle with it but I do know there is a lot more knowledge and software than there was a couple of cycles ago, Koinly being one I think.

No CGT in Gib, luckily.

[Urbandreamer]

How to you find the CGT aspect of it? I know plenty of people in the UK struggle with it but I do know there is a lot more knowledge and software than there was a couple of cycles ago, Koinly being one I think.

No CGT in Gib, luckily.

The trouble with CGT is very much that you have a tendency not to keep records until you actually need them. I'm not in too bad a position as CGT was known to be applicable when I started. Early records though are spotty as I didn't own as much as the personal allowance for CGT at the time so thought it would never be an issue.

I intend posting significantly more on the subject in a couple of month's, BTC price willing.

However record keeping and running said records through a calculator is the big thing. Fortunately I come from the LBYM (Living Below Your Means) tradition of recording spending. Hence it's a simple matter to squirt the records through BittyTax to establish my CGT position. I'm not using Koinly as their costs relate to the number of transactions, and I intend having a very significant number of transactions. BittyTax claims an example of 130,908 transactions with no problems.
https://x.com/bitty_tax?lang=en

A quick word about TLF. Many older members here started on TMF uk (The Motley Fool). They had a BBS which they closed down. A couple of long standing members got together and created TLF for us all to hang out upon. Hence the HYP board a method of investing that was at one time pushed by many on TMF, and LBYM mostly for the very frugal.