Greene King
Sector: Booze (duplicates sector of existing holding in Marston's)
Share price: 672.00p
Forecast yield and cover: 5.0%, covered 2.13 times.
Historical yield and cover: 4.8%, covered 2.18 times by adjusted EPS and 2.01 times by basic EPS.
Dividend growth record: a bit static back in 2009/10, but good and steady since then - last increase 7.7%, annualised over eight increases 5.5%
based on declared sterling amounts 20.9p*, 21.0p*, 21.5p , 23.1p, 24.8p, 26.6p, 28.4p, 29.75p, 32.05p (* = adjusted for rights issue)
Market cap: £2,082m
Net debt: £2,200m
Gearing: 122% based on NAV, 326% based on NAVXG, 435% based on NTAV
Debt multiple: 10.6 times
Interest cover: 2.1 times
Note: Net debt and gearing figures are from the interims; interest cover is from the finals earlier this year (to get a full year's figures and eliminate any seasonal effects); debt multiple uses the net debt from the interims and the adjusted earnings from the finals earlier this year.
Note: The debt should be looked at in the light of the fact that Greene King has substantial property assets in the form of pubs.
Pennon
Sector: Water Utilities (new sector for GDHYP)
Share price: 793.00p
Forecast yield and cover: 4.5%, covered 1.14 times
Historical yield and cover: 4.2%, covered 1.18 times by adjusted EPS and 1.10 times by basic EPS
Dividend growth record: good, steady growth over many years - last increase 5.6%, annualised over eight increases 6.8%
based on declared sterling amounts 19.81p, 21.00p, 22.55p, 24.65p, 26.52p, 28.46p, 30.31p, 31.80p, 33.58p
Market cap: £3,282m
Net debt: £2,566m
Gearing: 240% based on NAV, 375% based on NAVXG, 414% based on NTAV
Debt multiple: 15.8 times
Interest cover: 4.8 times
Note: Net debt and gearing figures are from the interims; interest cover is from the finals earlier this year (to get a full year's figures and eliminate any seasonal effects); debt multiple uses the net debt from the interims and the adjusted earnings from the finals earlier this year.
Note: The debt should be looked at in the light of the fact that Pennon is a utility.
Vodafone
Sector: Telecoms (mobile) (top-up of existing holding)
Share price: 191.40p
Forecast yield and cover: 6.6%, covered 0.48 times
Historical yield and cover: 6.0%, covered 0.44 times by adjusted EPS and -1.32 times by basic EPS (see note)
Dividend growth record: Good but slowing - last increase 2.0%, annualised over eight increases 5.4%
based on declared sterling amounts 7.51p, 7.77p, 8.31p, 8.90p, 9.52p*, 10.19p, 11.00p*, 11.22p, 11.45p (* = see note)
Market cap: £50,945m
Net debt: £34,045m
Gearing: 55% based on NAV, 86% based on NAVXG, 186% based on NTAV
Debt multiple: 30.3 times
Interest cover: 0.8 times (see note)
Note: Dividend record omits the special dividend of 4p paid in 2012 and the technically-a-dividend return of the Verizon deal proceeds in 2014.
Note: The company made a substantial loss on a "basic earnings" basis and so dividend cover by basic EPS really was negative.
Note: Net debt and gearing figures are from the interims, with net debt being translated at the current exchange rate; interest cover is from the finals earlier this year (to get a full year's figures and eliminate any seasonal effects); debt multiple uses the net debt from the interims and the adjusted earnings from the finals earlier this year.
Note: Interest cover is 0.8 times calculated on a "basic earnings" basis. On an "adjusted earnings" basis, I think it's 2.3 times - though that does depend on me having applied the adjustments listed in one section of the annual report correctly to another, and it isn't entirely obvious to me that I have. I haven't really decided which is the better one to use in principle, but my assessment is not good either way: 0.8 times is pretty bad, 2.3 times at best describable as poor IMHO...
As usual at this stage, if you don't think any of the remaining candidates is at all suitable, please either vote for the one that you think is least bad or don't vote in this poll. Voting will close two days after I post this poll, in the mid-to-late afternoon of Tuesday December 6th - see the top of the poll options for the exact deadline. Unless anything untoward happens, I will then enter a purchase order for the winner into the Halifax ShareBuilder account, ready for its 'investment day' on Wednesday December 7th.
To help in making the decision, here's an update of GDHYP's current composition - prices taken this weekend, as that's very quick and easy for me; forecasts still from the start of this selection process on Wednesday November 30th, as I don't regard it as worth updating them for just a few days of changes.
Code: Select all
Company (with EPIC Shares Purchase Current Current Sector F/cast Rank
top-up indicator) cost price value income yield Yld Cap Sum
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+ Lloyds LLOY 673 £1,800.00 57.55p £387.04 Banks £20.98 5.42% 14 1 15
- BP BP. 421 £1,875.12 466.65p £1,966.16 Oil & Gas Producers £133.31 6.78% 5 9 14
+ Vodafone VOD 1588 £3,056.56 191.40p £3,039.20 Telecoms (mobile) £199.12 6.55% 6 13 19
+ AstraZeneca AZN 77 £1,841.68 4055.00p £3,116.40 Pharmaceuticals £171.86 5.51% 13 14 27
+ Tate & Lyle TATE 650 £1,930.24 667.00p £4,338.24 Food Producers £184.26 4.25% 21 26 47
+ Br.Amer.Tobacco BATS 98 £1,937.68 4347.00p £4,240.32 Tobacco £160.51 3.79% 22 24 46
- SSE SSE 290 £3,598.00 1478.00p £4,288.80 Energy Utilities £261.94 6.11% 9 25 34
+ Aviva AV. 516 £1,999.76 443.40p £2,289.76 Life Assurance £119.91 5.24% 15 10 25
+ BAE Systems BA. 593 £1,869.84 594.00p £3,519.84 Defence & Aerospace £126.16 3.58% 23 21 44
+ British Land BLND 428 £2,138.40 587.00p £2,512.80 Property (REIT) £125.34 4.99% 17 12 29
+ RSA Insurance RSA 295 £1,890.48 529.00p £1,562.16 Non-life Insurance £42.61 2.73% 26 5 31
+ FirstGroup FGP 635 £2,060.00 100.80p £640.32 Travel £3.56 0.56% 27 2 29
+ Tesco TSCO 523 £2,148.32 206.75p £1,081.28 Supermarkets £0.47 0.04% 28 3 31
+ BHP Billiton BLT 124 £2,138.56 1304.00p £1,621.60 Mining £51.77 3.19% 25 6 31
- Carillion CLLN 1303 £4,213.28 244.90p £3,190.00 Constr'n / Prop.Serv. £245.14 7.68% 1 17 18
+ National Grid NG. 350 £2,224.64 902.80p £3,160.48 Energy Utilities £155.43 4.92% 18 16 34
+ Unilever ULVR 107 £2,299.52 3110.50p £3,318.00 Househ.Gds/Food Prod. £114.60 3.45% 24 18 42
- GlaxoSmithKline GSK 285 £4,093.60 1467.00p £4,173.84 Pharmaceuticals £234.02 5.61% 12 23 35
- Shell "B" RDSB 218 £4,740.64 2152.00p £4,685.52 Oil & Gas Producers £321.91 6.87% 4 28 32
- Pearson PSON 396 £4,058.24 787.50p £3,116.48 Media £203.81 6.54% 7 15 22
- HSBC HSBA 649 £4,405.76 627.10p £4,072.48 Banks £258.98 6.36% 8 22 30
+ Sainsbury SBRY 799 £2,609.68 229.00p £1,830.24 Supermarkets £82.56 4.51% 20 7 27
- Amec Foster Wh. AMFW 521 £4,794.48 443.70p £2,310.40 Oil & Gas Services £109.97 4.76% 19 11 30
- Marston's MARS 2562 £4,232.48 132.00p £3,381.68 Booze £194.70 5.76% 11 19 30
+ Imperial Brands IMB 56 £1,790.40 3395.50p £1,912.08 Tobacco £97.52 5.10% 16 8 24
+ Legal & General LGEN 1402 £3,338.24 242.50p £3,400.72 Life Assurance £201.10 5.91% 10 20 30
+ Aberdeen ADN 545 £1,719.12 272.40p £1,485.44 Other Financials £106.72 7.18% 3 4 7
- Galliford Try GFRD 359 £4,128.56 1293.00p £4,641.76 Constr'n / Housebldr £338.17 7.29% 2 27 29
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Subtotal £78,933.28 £79,283.04
Cash £1,788.72 £1,788.72
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Total £80,722.00 £81,071.76 £4,266.43
Gengulphus