Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

A good HYP return

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
Forum rules
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
idpickering
The full Lemon
Posts: 11276
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 2468 times
Been thanked: 5763 times

A good HYP return

#18939

Postby idpickering » December 31st, 2016, 9:32 am

Good morning all,

The figures are in for 2016 now and look like this;

FTSE 2016 start 6242 and finish 7142. Up 14.4%.

My HYP on invested capital value in Jan 2016 to year end, ie ignoring capital invested throughout 2016, is up 17.6%

I overestimated my average HYP yield in a post some time ago it seems so sorry to have mislead you there. Wishful thinking on my part, but my return in income terms is 4.3%. Therefore my total HYP return for 2016, ignoring monies invested during the year, is 21.9% up.

Happy with that.

HYP New Year to all here.

Regards,

Ian.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10377
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3604 times
Been thanked: 5233 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18947

Postby Arborbridge » December 31st, 2016, 10:17 am

Well done for a sparkling performance - you must give me your secret some time 8-)


If I take my investments at end of year 2015, and run the spreadsheet at today's prices, the increase is just 2.5%. A slight complication is Amlin which was taken over during the year, but I've just added back the capital as though it had stayed fixed in value.

Given that we have many of the shares in common, and some of my "duffers" have done particularly well this year (eg Tesco and BLT), my performance is distinctly out of kilter. I will check my spreadsheet for any "funnies" - one I need to correct for is the UBM return of capital, but I suspect the difference is minor.

Arb.

pendas
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 175
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:46 am
Has thanked: 24 times
Been thanked: 36 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18950

Postby pendas » December 31st, 2016, 10:45 am

Well done Ian.

My total return for the year is 9.44% with dividends reinvested and extra cash added. Annualised return is 11.2%.

Letting the side down on a TR basis, I hold Money Supermarket, Provident Financial, William Hill, BT Group, Marstons, Carillion, Taylor Wimpey and a few others in negative territory.

Income has increased year on year and I'm noticing the snowball effect as reinvested dividends produce more dividends.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10377
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3604 times
Been thanked: 5233 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18951

Postby Arborbridge » December 31st, 2016, 10:46 am

To answer my own question, the explanation must simply be avoidance of this year's duffers, or otherwise.

My previous years duffers have shone on capital: Morrisons, Tesco, BLT, RDSB, BP and others grew from 25% to 70% too many others - previously high flyers - came to earth. Seven shares dropped around 20% or more. Not surprising, companies such as IGG dropped 38%, but more so are stalwart shares like Greene King, down 25% and BLND down 19% both due to Brexit fears.

The average change of the portfolio, if equal weighted, would have been +3.6%.

Arb.

idpickering
The full Lemon
Posts: 11276
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 2468 times
Been thanked: 5763 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18958

Postby idpickering » December 31st, 2016, 11:09 am

pendas wrote:Well done Ian.

My total return for the year is 9.44% with dividends reinvested and extra cash added. Annualised return is 11.2%.

Letting the side down on a TR basis, I hold Money Supermarket, Provident Financial, William Hill, BT Group, Marstons, Carillion, Taylor Wimpey and a few others in negative territory.

Income has increased year on year and I'm noticing the snowball effect as reinvested dividends produce more dividends.


Thanks for your replies guys. I deliberately ignored the new monies invested, including dividends, received throughout 2016 in my calculation, as I add new money every month, as you know, and it would've been to complicated for my feeble mind to work out. :lol:

The bottom line for us here is the income, and as mentioned in another thread recently, I'm up 13.6% on 2115, but that's probably down to the new money invested over 2016 buying more income anyway.

Regards,

Ian.

kempiejon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3488
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:30 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18964

Postby kempiejon » December 31st, 2016, 11:39 am

Snorvey wrote:It's really nice watching a mass of dividends start to generate it's own income that in turn generates it's own etc.

When does it reach critical mass? For me, it's the day when the HYP is generating a minimum amount for me to live off.

My HYP gets the full ISA allowance each year from selling unsheltered holdings for any gains and moving across - extra cash throughout the year goes to the unsheltered account and I repeat annually.
I'm with you snorvey when the income reaches my living expenses work is optional. I measure my income monthly comparing with last year. Ian said it's the income that matters, come April I'll have a double check on last year's income and expenses and see how we're doing.

idpickering
The full Lemon
Posts: 11276
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 2468 times
Been thanked: 5763 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18966

Postby idpickering » December 31st, 2016, 11:57 am

kempiejon wrote: I measure my income monthly comparing with last year. Ian said it's the income that matters, come April I'll have a double check on last year's income and expenses and see how we're doing.


I look forward to it kempiejon. I run a spread sheet to keep a record of my dividends received, this since 2005. Also a bar chart showing a pretty picture of my raising or lowering income on an annual basis.

Regards,

Ian.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8209
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 913 times
Been thanked: 4097 times

Re: A good HYP return

#18980

Postby tjh290633 » December 31st, 2016, 12:39 pm

I always find it a problem to give calendar year end reports, because I am organised to work on a Tax year basis. That means I have to create a new report from the data which I have. As you know, I like to work on a unitised basis, to avoid the problems of adding capital and withdrawing income. I was able to add some capital this year, having decided to cash in a policy which was going to cost me more money than it was worth, the problem of age-related premiums. That makes the unitised data even more essential.

Looking at the two versions, I get the following annual changes over the year:

For the Income unit:
Unit    8.69%
FTSE 14.43%

For the Accumulation Unit: 13.74%

I don't have a figure for the TR version of the FTSE, although I must have the figures in the relevant FT pages. Ah, here we are:
31-Dec-15    4,890.97
30-Dec-16 5,823.91
Change 19.07%

So in terms of capital I have underperformed both. Regarding dividend income/unit, that rose by 5.72% including special dividends. The yield is just about 4.0%.

TJH

Gengulphus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4255
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:17 am
Been thanked: 2628 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19050

Postby Gengulphus » December 31st, 2016, 4:20 pm

Snorvey wrote:When does it reach critical mass? For me, it's the day when the HYP is generating a minimum amount for me to live off.

I'd suggest another point that might also be regarded as 'critical mass': when the HYP is generating cash as dividends at a higher rate than one is adding it as extra savings. The interesting aspect of that is that if you stopped adding any extra savings to your HYP at that point and just reinvest all the dividends you receive, and another HYPer started a HYP at the same time as you stopped, using your level of savings, that HYPer is never expected (*) to catch you up on income or capital.

As an example, GDHYP is saving £7,200 per year (in its full-scale version). It went past half that amount of forecast income as a result of its 37th purchase (which was of Aberdeen Asset Management) last April, after about 8 years of saving and purchasing. So it's past 50% of that alternative 'critical mass' concept - and it's definitely accelerating: after its recent 41st selection, its forecast income was up to just over 60% of £7,200 per year.

Not suggesting it's a better concept of 'critical mass', nor a worse one - just different. In particular, for someone able to save into their HYP at the same sort of rate they eventually want to take out of it to live on or higher, it's irrelevant - they'll stop saving into it before they reach that stage. But for someone only able to save at a lower rate, it's a very encouraging sign that their HYP is making a bigger contribution to its own growth through dividend reinvestment than they're making by investing 'new' money, and that stage could be reached years ahead of the HYP being big enough to live off...

One final comment is that I would personally put your concept of 'critical mass' at least a bit above the minimum of generating enough dividend income to live off - just because only being at that point is a bit too precarious, as it means one is rather too much at the mercy of dividend cuts...

(*) That's basically on a statistical basis: your HYP could suffer a whole lot of dividend cuts that the other HYP misses out on because they're shares that were HYP candidates in the past but are no longer. But assuming that the HYPs concerned are constructed in a well-diversified manner, that's not particularly likely to happen, and statistically it's counterbalanced by the chance that your HYP could benefit from a whole lot of exceptionally good dividend rises that the other HYP misses out on (quite possibly for the same reason!).

Gengulphus

YeeWo
Lemon Slice
Posts: 424
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:12 am
Has thanked: 297 times
Been thanked: 118 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19081

Postby YeeWo » December 31st, 2016, 6:05 pm

idpickering wrote:HYP New Year to all here. Regards, Ian.


I second the above. I've just run my numbers viewtopic.php?f=56&t=2106

Good Luck to All for 2017! :D

bulltraderpt
Lemon Slice
Posts: 312
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 6:46 am
Has thanked: 27 times
Been thanked: 15 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19083

Postby bulltraderpt » December 31st, 2016, 6:17 pm

OK, not HYP, but (as I) actively trade, we have a total return after dealing costs of 57.44% in year four of day trading for a living, the devil's brew, as some might call it.

As of 2013, if you'd have had the same fills as me but not withdrawn any cash not only would you have your original X, but you'd now be sitting on 4.3 times X (as well).

Unfortunately I have withdrawn cash for living expenses etc, so don't have the total returns ( as detailed above) I have been able to glean from Mr market, but with that said, it's still a good pot size to trade with as I look forward to 2017 with a mixture of trepidation and excitement as to the new opportunities which will present themselves.

Good luck all.

Moderator Message:
off topic for the hyp practical forum. Raptor


edited 1.1.17 to add my id

bulltraderpt
Lemon Slice
Posts: 312
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 6:46 am
Has thanked: 27 times
Been thanked: 15 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19108

Postby bulltraderpt » December 31st, 2016, 9:15 pm

"Moderator Message:
off topic for the hyp practical forum"

It might be (as I stated initially in my reply), but as this forum seems to e only interested in investing for the lonnnggg term, I thought a little spice might liven things up a bit. :)

kempiejon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3488
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:30 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19178

Postby kempiejon » January 1st, 2017, 11:52 am

Moderator Message:
off topic for the hyp practical forum

Quite agree, but is this question on topic?
Did I miss the "on topics" for this board? I understand that trading does not count as per the old TMF HYP FAQs and I read the debates for allowed topics on high yield boards on the Lemon but I thought there's not been a conclusion, could someone share a pointer please.

JohnnyCyclops
Lemon Slice
Posts: 301
Joined: November 15th, 2016, 9:19 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 124 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19216

Postby JohnnyCyclops » January 1st, 2017, 2:40 pm

Ahoy shipmates. Thought I'd put in an appearance on the LemonFool boards finally.

Our HYP has its annual year through to 31 March, but I've been tidying up the spreadsheets today, including catching up on unitisation, so was able to fairly quickly get some end of December numbers for the calendar years.

2016 income is up 1.67% on the 2015 figures on a dividend per accumulation unit basis. The figure to March 2016 had been up 1.16%, so this is a step up for us, and (depends on your choice of inflation indice) broadly pacing it.

Running XIRR lifetime over the last five and three-quarter years is 7.97%.

Slightly more worryingly the Accumulation Unit values still track under the FTSE100 TR, and this last 12 months the gap has widened by around 4% - i.e. the HYP TR is doing worse than the FTSE100 TR by that amount.

JC

kempiejon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3488
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:30 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19227

Postby kempiejon » January 1st, 2017, 3:43 pm

JohnnyCyclops wrote:
2016 income is up 1.67% on the 2015 figures on a dividend per accumulation unit basis. The figure to March 2016 had been up 1.16%, so this is a step up for us, and (depends on your choice of inflation indice) broadly pacing it.

Running XIRR lifetime over the last five and three-quarter years is 7.97%.

Slightly more worryingly the Accumulation Unit values still track under the FTSE100 TR, and this last 12 months the gap has widened by around 4% - i.e. the HYP TR is doing worse than the FTSE100 TR by that amount.

JC


Hello JC, I wondered if you were still about, I noticed your TMF post rate fall off and this is your first foray to the new boards I think.
So, your income growth about matching inflation this year - good enough
your IRR is a little below mine own, I'm running around 10% since 2004 but I've not update for a couple of months, start dates will affect mileage as discussed.
We know the HYP is not set up to outperform the FTSE TR but provide a growing sustainable income so I wouldn't get too hung up on the difference especially over the shorter term but if it looks like a longer term trend for peace of mind the a FTSE all share accumulator tracker could look more attractive. Of course your FTSE TR amount if pulled from an index rather than a real life bought product then spread and fees and taxes will cause the HYP to lag a little.

Gengulphus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4255
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:17 am
Been thanked: 2628 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19229

Postby Gengulphus » January 1st, 2017, 4:13 pm

kempiejon wrote:Did I miss the "on topics" for this board? I understand that trading does not count as per the old TMF HYP FAQs and I read the debates for allowed topics on high yield boards on the Lemon but I thought there's not been a conclusion, could someone share a pointer please.

As far as I am aware, the distinction between what's on-topic for this board and for High Yield - Strategies started off as the same as it was on the similarly-named boards on TMF - it really couldn't have been anything else. And no statement has been made changing it, so it's still the same as it was there.

Moderation policy about how to enforce that distinction has clearly changed to some extent, if only because of the different technical facilities available to the moderators and the very different nature of the moderation team. I haven't seen enough of its results yet to have got a clear impression of exactly what it is or how much it differs from TMF's moderation policy - and I'm not certain such an impression is even possible at present, as moderation policy may well still be being formed as the moderation team settles in.

Please note that this is not intended to say that I think the topic distinction ought to remain the same as it was on TMF - on the contrary, I think there were "cracks" in that distinction which were only papered over, not dealt with properly. A major one was that it put quite a few posts that were of interest to anyone running a high-yield strategy into the HYP-specific "High Yield - HYP Practical" board - for instance, results and major news items from high-yield companies generally went there despite there being nothing HYP-specific about them. That attracted users to the board who weren't really interested in HYP-specific stuff, wanting instead to discuss high-yield strategies more generally, and so undermined the intended board distinction.

Instead, what I am saying is merely what I believe the situation currently is. I.e. that basically, I don't believe there has been anything saying that what's on-topic for this board has changed from what it was on TMF, and so no, you haven't missed any such thing. There have been debates about changing it, but there is a bit of a mice-voting-to-bell-the-cat issue about drawing any conclusions from such debates: any topic distinction we end up with does have to be one that the moderators can work with. Not helped by the fact that it's all a new system to most of us, with not just the mice but also (I suspect) most of the cats needing to learn what the cats can work with in practice... For example, TLF moderators can move off-topic posts to somewhere where they're on-topic, but the few instances I've seen of that being attempted so far say to me that doing so in a way that doesn't provoke more off-topic debate than it gets rid of is easier said than done!

But helped by the fact that we're dealing with mouse-friendly cats - i.e. yes, I know the analogy is nowhere near perfect!

Gengulphus

JohnnyCyclops
Lemon Slice
Posts: 301
Joined: November 15th, 2016, 9:19 pm
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 124 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19230

Postby JohnnyCyclops » January 1st, 2017, 4:22 pm

kempiejon wrote:Hello JC, I wondered if you were still about, I noticed your TMF post rate fall off and this is your first foray to the new boards I think.
So, your income growth about matching inflation this year - good enough
your IRR is a little below mine own, I'm running around 10% since 2004 but I've not update for a couple of months, start dates will affect mileage as discussed.
We know the HYP is not set up to outperform the FTSE TR but provide a growing sustainable income so I wouldn't get too hung up on the difference especially over the shorter term but if it looks like a longer term trend for peace of mind the a FTSE all share accumulator tracker could look more attractive. Of course your FTSE TR amount if pulled from an index rather than a real life bought product then spread and fees and taxes will cause the HYP to lag a little.


Kempiejon, many thanks. Yes, my TMF productivity fell away for two reasons. 1 - got quite busy elsewhere in life. 2 - the HYP seemed to have settled down into a routine, and didn't merit much posting or swotting up here. But I did get notice of the TMF switch-off, and have poked into the Lemon a few times, but I think today's was a first post. Who knows - in 2017 I might be back (but in search of advice other than HYP, I think).

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10377
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3604 times
Been thanked: 5233 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19246

Postby Arborbridge » January 1st, 2017, 5:19 pm

JC,

A welcome back from me, and I hope your 2017 will be a successful one.


Arb.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18681
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6564 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19272

Postby Lootman » January 1st, 2017, 7:09 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
kempiejon wrote:Did I miss the "on topics" for this board? I understand that trading does not count as per the old TMF HYP FAQs and I read the debates for allowed topics on high yield boards on the Lemon but I thought there's not been a conclusion, could someone share a pointer please.

As far as I am aware, the distinction between what's on-topic for this board and for High Yield - Strategies started off as the same as it was on the similarly-named boards on TMF - it really couldn't have been anything else. And no statement has been made changing it, so it's still the same as it was there.

. .what I am saying is merely what I believe the situation currently is. I.e. that basically, I don't believe there has been anything saying that what's on-topic for this board has changed from what it was on TMF, and so no, you haven't missed any such thing.

I see it differently. In the absence of any definitive statement about scope, which may never arrive anyway, I think people have tended to assume what they personally prefer. So you are clearly assuming that, absent any scope statement, the scope of the two boards is the same as TMF. Whereas I have chosen to assume that the scope is now broader, in line with the fact that boards generally have been reduced in number and therefore inevitably increased in scope.

Moreover, as a practical matter, moderation appears to be more modest here, which means there is a de facto change of scope, if not an explicit one. For instance, in this thread, the moderator added commentary whilst (I assume) leaving the comment as-is and in situ.

There is also no "civil discussion" board on TLF where meta-discussion about a board, like this discussion, can take place. So it takes place here - something not allowed on TMF.

By the way, I think when a moderator adds a message in the way shown above, they should include their name so we all know who did that.

Raptor
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1621
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 139 times
Been thanked: 306 times

Re: A good HYP return

#19277

Postby Raptor » January 1st, 2017, 7:35 pm

My apologies for leaving my name off, but the flu laid me low and was not fully back to speed.
.
As to what is on topic and what is not. Currently the moderators are following the TMF guidelines but as we have better tools here it is easier to move, merge, lock topics and posts. The mod box also helps to "police " topics rather than delete everything.

Maybe we are also not as pedantic as TMF and will let the discussion flow to see how it goes.

Raptor


Return to “HYP Practical (See Group Guidelines)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests