Dod1010 wrote:monabri wrote:Only Liberum Capital called it !
Goldman Sachs view was 808p on 13 Jan 17.
Alphavalue view 986p today!!
Numis view 710p today
Investec 835p on 5th Jan.
It seems pointless looking at most broker's views!
It is pointless looking at most broker's views. They know little more than you or I and for the most part it is not their money they are considering anyway. You need to look, think and act (even if 'act' means moving on to the next opportunity, that is, not buying) You need to decide for yourself and in order to do that you need to be in the market getting a feel for what is happening.
Dod
Liberium were not the only people who called it. I'm too lazy to look back through the old TMF posts. Somebody will probably do it now. However, I recall that the poor outlook for Pearson was discussed and anticipated by others at one time. I can't remember what I said but I was one of the posters reluctant to hold them.
For some time I worked at the literal chalk face for a cutting edge educational provider. It was obvious many years ago that educational delivery was changing with the use of various types of digital gizmos such as interactive white boards, desktop computers overhead projectors, etc. and online resources at home. Hard copy textbooks were still essential but no longer the sole medium.
As noted in the above correspondence, when Pearson sold its newspapers it was thought to be over-concentrating on a declining but nevertheless highly competitive market. I think some on TMF got it right.
All of the above raises perennial questions for we LTBH types. How can we avoid getting sucked into the TESCOs and Pearsons of this world? Since we can't have inside knowledge of every industry we need to rely on the old standbys of diversification and basic financial scrutiny of potential holdings. Those few of us who are lucky enough to be familiar with a particular field may occasionally buy or avoid a company we know. However, I personally believe that a wary eye on the macro side of the economy is very helpful if you happen to have an interest in such things. Most don't of course.
I sell vary rarely but have no hesitation if I think I see a lemon growing. I'm also suspicious of very high dividends and try to keep an occasional eye on such companies.
The only incey wincey downside is that I am just a tad crap at timing the whole thing.
