The Lemon Fool

Updated 1Q24 guidancea

• Upstream productionb in the first quarter is expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, with production higher in oil production & operations and slightly higher in gas & low carbon energy.

• In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizationsc compared to the prior quarter are expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.2-0.4 billion, including declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. There is also expected to be an adverse impact of around $0.2 billion as a result of the devaluation of the Egyptian Pound. In addition, the gas marketing and trading result is expected to be strong following a strong result in the fourth quarter 2023.

• In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc compared to the prior quarter are expected to have an adverse impact in the range of $0.3-0.6 billion, including price lags on bp's production in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE and also declines in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices.

• The customers and products segment, compared to the prior quarter, is expected to be impacted by the following factors: in products, improving realized refining margins, expected to result in a benefit in the range of $0.1-0.2 billion; a significantly lower level of turnaround activity than the prior quarter, offset by the impacts of the 1 February plant-wide power outage at the Whiting refinery which, after a phased start-up, resumed normal operations on 15 March; the oil trading result is expected to be strong following a weak result in the fourth quarter 2023; and in customers, significantly weaker fuel margins, seasonally lower volumes, and the absence of one-off positive effects that impacted the prior quarter.

• Other items: Net debt is expected to increase in the first quarter mainly reflecting a working capital build plus phasing of capex and divestment and other proceeds as previously guided.