The Lemon Fool

Posted: **April 9th, 2017, 5:15 pm**

There's Galliford Try (GFRD) which I am happy to hold, a bit more diversified than other housebuilders with a good record of dividend increases. Historic yield c. 5.5%, looks like rather more this year.

RC

Posted: **April 9th, 2017, 6:36 pm**

Haven't BKG been buying back their own shares at the expense of Dividends? (Is the 6% yield real / valid?) Just check that out - I've seen discussions on BKG on this board.

Posted: **April 9th, 2017, 6:41 pm**

Snorvey wrote:I'm looking at adding a new sector to my HYP - housebuilders.

I haven't looked at the sector since I got over the traumatic experience of holding Taylor Wimpey in my old Hoodless Brennan (remember them?) account over the credit crunch. That worked out ok in the end, but things were dire for a good while. But in a post Brexit / shortage of houses / looking to get the economy moving type of way, I think it might be a fairly good time to diversify into the sector.

...and whether it makes a difference or not, I think I'd rather split the sector 'unit' down - in this case to 4 holdings

Berkley at 6.3%

http://www.bankofscotlandhalifaxmarketw ... =div_yield

Bovis @ 5.5%

http://www.bankofscotlandhalifaxmarketw ... =div_yield

Crest Nicolson 6.8%

http://www.bankofscotlandhalifaxmarketw ... =div_yield

and Persimmon @ 6.2%

http://www.bankofscotlandhalifaxmarketw ... =div_yield

Berkely's cover failed the x1.5 filter for dividend cover, but only by a thick-ish ball hair. So I'm making a small allowance & it's in.

I know they don't all meet the strict classic hyp rules and I know the juciest gains have gone AND interest ratest will have to go up at some point (but who knows when?) and who the hell knows what Brexit will actually bring (11 billion pensioners being deported from Spain looking for a house)....but then who knows anything?

The future's not ours to see.

Any thoughts?

Interesting post Snorvey. I hold Taylor Wimpey and am toying with doubling up in the sector by bringing Persimmon on board.

I also hold British Land, similar sector but different.

Regards,

Ian

Posted: **April 9th, 2017, 7:33 pm**

Snorvey wrote:I'm looking at adding a new sector to my HYP - housebuilders.

Crest Nicolson 6.8%

http://www.bankofscotlandhalifaxmarketw ... =div_yield

Any thoughts?

Yes. Stop using this data source!

Crest Nicholson is a recent addition to my holdings, and I think it a worthy candidate. But at the current share price of 546p, the yield is 5.05%. I entertain hopes that it will go up to over 6% next year, which is why I bought, but 6.8% is just plain wrong.

Posted: **April 9th, 2017, 8:00 pm**

Dividends (in pence) based on a trailing 12 month basis are

Info above sourced from "Dividend Data" (A cross-check on ADVFN indicates CRST at 5.05%).

The Forecast yield from HYPTUSS for CRST,GFRD,BKG,PSN is reported as 6.3%, 6.6%,6.4 and 5.8% respectively.

Posted: **April 18th, 2017, 6:25 pm**

I like BKG. Bit hard to est the div now, prior to buy-backs at 200p/pa [gross] = 6.23% tonight. Yes this cash div is reduced by buy-backs. But the forecast div/per share likely does not reflect, real-time, the reduced 'Shares in issue', ie. reduced div per share, yes; reduced shares it issue that div will be paid on, no. So some element of swings+roundabouts?
Also like how BKG have a published div payment schedule published @200p/pa [gross of any buy-backs], currently running to Sep-2021.
Also like their Broker Rating: http://www.digitallook.com/equity/Berke ... ldings_The 12 ratings = 8 'Strong buy', 2 'Neutral', 2 'Strong Sell'. I'd love to know the reasoning behind the Strong Sells, but 8/12 Strong Buy is hard to ignore IMHO....

- ps. ADVFN forum, despite the chaff that can crop up there, also has some insightful posts on this stock.

Posted: **April 19th, 2017, 8:52 am**

DiamondEcho wrote:Also like their Broker Rating: http://www.digitallook.com/equity/Berke ... ldings_The 12 ratings = 8 'Strong buy', 2 'Neutral', 2 'Strong Sell'. I'd love to know the reasoning behind the Strong Sells, but 8/12 Strong Buy is hard to ignore IMHO....

Really.

What were the broker recs when the SP was 23 quid one and a half years ago and when the SP was 12 quid five years ago?

Or how about when the SP was 36 quid two and a half years ago?

Vision25

Posted: **April 19th, 2017, 9:05 am**

Perhaps you will tell us?

Posted: **April 19th, 2017, 10:41 am**

DiamondEcho wrote:Perhaps you will tell us?

https://www.brokerforecasts.com/companies/BKG

Vision25

Posted: **April 19th, 2017, 12:39 pm**

I can't get the page to load, shame as that might have been interesting to see.

I keep track of the aggregate rating score of my core stocks incl BKG. I find it useful when sifting candidates at top-up or trim times, it gives a small added sense of direction. So I have that running score history for BKG in my spreadsheets but not dated vs a timeline, I just re-check the ratings every 2-3 months or so and add the current score to the list.
I could post the resulting string of numbers but it won't mean much without me explaining how the figures are derived, and I haven't the time right now. Those figures go back over at least 5 years IIRC. I'll try your linked site again later and see whether it loads. If no joy, then perhaps I can post my historic findings later and elaborate how they're derived...

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 10:55 am**

Brokers' opinions are worthless. No HYPer should give them any credence. There is a fair amount of research on this, for example:

http://www.stockopedia.com/content/why- ... nt-142379/

Whilst I use them to get a quantitative idea of very near term dividend forecasts in making HYP selections, no further than than the current or following year and with the full knowledge that there is a degree of uncertainty in those figures, I certainly pay no attention to their qualitative opinions on a company. I'm surprised anyone here does so.

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 11:11 am**

[quote="pyad"]
Brokers' opinions are worthless.
/quote]

Thanks Stephen - really enjoyed this quote: “If brokers really knew what they were talking about do you think they would (a) continue commuting into the office every day, or (b) take their laptop to Barbados and stay there? (P.S. it’s ‘b’).”

Cheers, OLTB.

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 11:23 am**

ReformedCharacter wrote:There's Galliford Try (GFRD) which I am happy to hold, a bit more diversified than other housebuilders with a good record of dividend increases. Historic yield c. 5.5%, looks like rather more this year.

RC

galliford is the only HYP type builder i hold, partly because of its diversity .

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 8:13 pm**

pyad wrote:Brokers' opinions are worthless. No HYPer should give them any credence.

Disagree. If you've worked in the industry, discarding the 'Advertiser content' chaff is second nature in it's simplicity.
Sure, 'Sid' might not care. But Sid+25 years is perhaps more sophisticated and considers wider metrics.

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 8:23 pm**

OLTB wrote:
pyad wrote: Brokers' opinions are worthless. /quote]
Thanks Stephen - really enjoyed this quote: “If brokers really knew what they were talking about do you think they would (a) continue commuting into the office every day, or (b) take their laptop to Barbados and stay there? (P.S. it’s ‘b’).” Cheers, OLTB.

Strange idea. Er.... brokers have no idea... because I think they don't all move to Barbados.
Seriously?

[Never been a broker, though was a trader. A futures/commodities trader - I know, don't laugh

How about you? How directly informed is your view?]

Posted: **April 20th, 2017, 11:03 pm**

DiamondEcho wrote:
OLTB wrote:
pyad wrote: Brokers' opinions are worthless. /quote]
Thanks Stephen - really enjoyed this quote: “If brokers really knew what they were talking about do you think they would (a) continue commuting into the office every day, or (b) take their laptop to Barbados and stay there? (P.S. it’s ‘b’).” Cheers, OLTB.

Strange idea. Er.... brokers have no idea... because I think they don't all move to Barbados.
Seriously?

[Never been a broker, though was a trader. A futures/commodities trader - I know, don't laugh How about you? How directly informed is your view?]

I take that is meant in the same way as the football pools and horse racing tipsters. If they were any good, they would win big by betting and move to their mythical paradise (and continue to win big with their laptop). They would not be grafting a living by telling others where to put their x in the tabloids.

Posted: **April 21st, 2017, 8:32 am**

mike wrote:I take that is meant in the same way as the football pools and horse racing tipsters. If they were any good, they would win big by betting and move to their mythical paradise (and continue to win big with their laptop). They would not be grafting a living by telling others where to put their x in the tabloids.

It's the absolutism of the suggestion - if a resource doesn't help you make it big then it's of no value. I appreciate that ratings are an aggregate of opinions, amongst which might be some self-interest and perhaps less informed, but if I've two candidates for a top-up and one is 'Strong Sell' vs the other at 'Buy' I'd wish to dig deeper into that divergence. The 'Broker Rec' is not obscure info, for example you can find it at Digitallook. Here's the FTSE-100 index with the Broker Rec of each stock indicated https://www.digitallook.com/index/FTSE_100

Look into individual stocks and on the summary page you'll see how the aggregate Rec is arrived at. I use such pages before a top-up, to get a recap of recent div history, earnings forecasts, scan recent headlines and so on, just to get the current 'feel' on a stock. I appreciate that HYP is more of a minimalist/macro approach, perhaps in part because such^ info was unavailable, costly or hard to access when the strategy was originally devised.

Posted: **April 21st, 2017, 5:10 pm**

DiamondEcho wrote:It's the absolutism of the suggestion...

Recent experience suggests to me that the views expressed are invariably both absolute and utterly resolute, even in the face of compelling evidence to the contrary.

Terry.

Posted: **April 21st, 2017, 6:34 pm**

You've lost me there...

The world has changed since the original HYP strategy was devised. Back then we were taking base data from newspapers and few of us had the advantage of home computers + the internet. The HYP strategy does not appear to have similarly evolved. I understand and agree with it having core principles, but in some ways the tenets are like requiring us to live in a world before domestic power tools.

So suggestions as to current HYP candidate metrics anyone?

Or if they are published and up to date, a link would be do and be appreciated.

Posted: **April 21st, 2017, 6:55 pm**

Snorvey wrote:Eh?

When the original HYP was devised i was getting my data from the Fool, iii, advfn.... And various other online sources.

DigitalLook's screener was the usual source back in the early 2000s.

You had to check what they said with the subject company's web site to be certain.

TJH

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