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I see VOD is now below 200p

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Wizard
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I see VOD is now below 200p

#8518

Postby Wizard » November 24th, 2016, 11:32 am

There seemed to be a few who, not withstanding cover questions, saw that as a level that may make VOD worth thinking about again.

Terry.

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8521

Postby staffordian » November 24th, 2016, 11:38 am

I recall similar posts on TMF a while back from some who were waiting to buy when it dipped below 100. Don't think it ever quite did.

Staffordian

ian56
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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8532

Postby ian56 » November 24th, 2016, 12:07 pm

Wizard wrote:There seemed to be a few who, not withstanding cover questions, saw that as a level that may make VOD worth thinking about again.

Terry.


Ex-dividend today has pushed the price below 200. I topped up last week at about 203 to get the dividend which will be enhanced by the drop in Sterling (provided it doesn't recover by February!).

Edit: Just to clarify that wasn't the only reason for topping up, they were at the top of HYPTUSS for more funds also.

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8539

Postby toofast2live » November 24th, 2016, 12:34 pm

There is, of course, nothing wrong with setting a price target for a share, at which yield the punter would be satisfied with the risks he sees. It's irrelevant that the share never "hit" the target price - the punter merely moves on to the next candidate on his list.

I am not particularly comfortable with the likelihood of increases in the dividend on shares such as VOD and GSK. Therefore I will wait until a buying opportunity arises. If it doesn't arise I'm not too fussed as there are plenty of other shares with better dividend prospects and better cover as well, following today's results I would rather nibble on Marstons for example than VOD or GSK. I may of course be astonishingly wrong in my judgement, but hey ho, thats life - innit.

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8551

Postby Garudadri » November 24th, 2016, 1:07 pm

Vodafone fortunes will now be driven by revenue from India and similar markets. The opportunities lie in data usage driven increase in ARPU. The competition in those markets us equally fierce and it is still a worthwhile punt to TOP up in small bites. The market has already at least partially factored in this recent quarter in India that was tough. European revenues from project spring will only partially mitigate this

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8608

Postby Gengulphus » November 24th, 2016, 3:14 pm

staffordian wrote:I recall similar posts on TMF a while back from some who were waiting to buy when it dipped below 100. Don't think it ever quite did.


Actually it did - but only just! I don't think it has been below 100p at the market close since 2002, which is long before the posts concerned, but its intraday lows on 24 and 27 October 2008 were 96.8p and 96.4p respectively. I don't remember exactly when the posts were made about waiting to buy until it dipped below 100p, but I'm fairly certain they're before then, partly just on general memory, partly because looking at a long-term share price chart says that Vodafone hasn't really given potential holders any reason to think its price is falling and might plausibly get down to below 100p since then, and partly because of a specific memory that I posted the same information on TMF much closer to the time. I haven't tried to locate the post on TMF, though: re-researching and re-writing this is far quicker and easier!

Gengulphus

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8622

Postby Breelander » November 24th, 2016, 3:41 pm

Gengulphus wrote: I don't remember exactly when the posts were made about waiting to buy until it dipped below 100p, but I'm fairly certain they're before then... I haven't tried to locate the post on TMF, though: re-researching and re-writing this is far quicker and easier!


Not too onerous to find the origins - nuages0 in 2006 on the HYSS board (or HYP as it was then named)...

nuages0 on TMF wrote:I hereby claim credit for the now infamous "buy VOD at 100p" remark.

At least it has furnished PYAD with a theme for an article!
http://boards.fool.co.uk/in-case-anyone ... e#10196200

The article in question being here. Though it doesn't specifically name VOD, it does say...

Stephen Bland wrote:...you see a share which at say 100p would have fundamentals that meet your filters. At present it is 120p and thus too far outside your limits. You say to yourself at 100 I'd buy it. The price falls on unchanged fundamentals down to say 105. Should you then buy it? Probably yes, especially for an HYP where because you are not looking for short-term capital gains but long-term income with the secondary desire of gains, it makes little difference at 105 against 100. ... So in conclusion, try to cut price from your thinking. Forget about it.

http://web.archive.org/web/200711031737 ... e-cut.aspx

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8651

Postby Gengulphus » November 24th, 2016, 4:41 pm

Breelander wrote:Not too onerous to find the origins - nuages0 in 2006 on the HYSS board (or HYP as it was then named)...

nuages0 on TMF wrote:I hereby claim credit for the now infamous "buy VOD at 100p" remark.

At least it has furnished PYAD with a theme for an article!
http://boards.fool.co.uk/in-case-anyone ... e#10196200


Thanks, Bree! I was actually thinking about finding my own post(s) on TMF pointing out that the objective had been achieved but had taken a very long time and the opportunity had only lasted a very short time - but what you've found is better, as it gives a more direct link to the original remark!

Here's an archived version of the same in case someone (such as me!) wants to find it in another few years' time:

https://web.archive.org/web/20161124163 ... e#10196200

Gengulphus

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8664

Postby jackdaww » November 24th, 2016, 5:14 pm

closing price today 199xd .

perhaps worth noting , there were fairly substantial director buys earlier this year at around 222.

and others recently at 206 and 202.

outlook (15/11/2016)

"The overall performance of the group in the first half of the current financial year has been modestly ahead of our expectations .

so nothing too ominous there then.

and neil woodford apparently said he would consider it at the right price !

. :|

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8680

Postby Arborbridge » November 24th, 2016, 5:52 pm

I'm still feeling fairly bervous about my holding in VOD and have resisted the temptation to top up.

Isn't anyone else worried about a half covered dividend and sky high PE? When, if at all, are these numbers likely to come into some reasonable area? Can we have faith in a company which has had some very dodgy periods and significant shareholder disatisfaction in the moderately recent past for paying way over the odds for acquisitions?


Arb

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8684

Postby Raptor » November 24th, 2016, 5:56 pm

Arborbridge wrote:I'm still feeling fairly bervous about my holding in VOD and have resisted the temptation to top up.

Isn't anyone else worried about a half covered dividend and sky high PE? When, if at all, are these numbers likely to come into some reasonable area? Can we have faith in a company which has had some very dodgy periods and significant shareholder disatisfaction in the moderately recent past for paying way over the odds for acquisitions?


Arb


I would for most shares but this has been the "norm" with VOD for so long. I must admit that I had expected it to change by now but will hold and watch but no top-up.

Raptor

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8692

Postby Markblox » November 24th, 2016, 6:12 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
staffordian wrote:I recall similar posts on TMF a while back from some who were waiting to buy when it dipped below 100. Don't think it ever quite did.


Actually it did - but only just! I don't think it has been below 100p at the market close since 2002, which is long before the posts concerned, but its intraday lows on 24 and 27 October 2008 were 96.8p and 96.4p respectively. I don't remember exactly when the posts were made about waiting to buy until it dipped below 100p, but I'm fairly certain they're before then, partly just on general memory, partly because looking at a long-term share price chart says that Vodafone hasn't really given potential holders any reason to think its price is falling and might plausibly get down to below 100p since then, and partly because of a specific memory that I posted the same information on TMF much closer to the time. I haven't tried to locate the post on TMF, though: re-researching and re-writing this is far quicker and easier!

Gengulphus


According to my records I bought 2008 shares @ 98.48p on the 24/10/2008. They were strange days and I sold five days later @ 117.6p!

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Re: I see VOD yield is now above 5.8%

#8741

Postby moorfield » November 24th, 2016, 8:44 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Isn't anyone else worried about a half covered dividend and sky high PE? When, if at all, are these numbers likely to come into some reasonable area? Can we have faith in a company which has had some very dodgy periods and significant shareholder disatisfaction in the moderately recent past for paying way over the odds for acquisitions?


Arb


Not really, no. The overall income produced by my whole HYP continues to meet it's targets (+7.2% growth p/a). I have much lower yielding shares that can be tinkered away first to sustain that if the VOD dividend fails drastically.
Last edited by moorfield on November 24th, 2016, 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

CommissarJones
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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8743

Postby CommissarJones » November 24th, 2016, 8:46 pm

Arborbridge wrote:I'm still feeling fairly bervous about my holding in VOD and have resisted the temptation to top up.


That is a perfectly reasonable reaction. I have mixed feelings as well, to say the least, and also have held off buying VOD for the moment. In fact, several of my holdings are giving me coverage-related concerns, as I also have BP, GSK and RDSB.

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8746

Postby moorfield » November 24th, 2016, 8:51 pm

I have mixed feelings as well, to say the least, and also have held off buying VOD for the moment.


Presumeably one of the aims of TJH's excellent ranking system was to try and remove such emotions from top-up decisions?

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8793

Postby Arborbridge » November 24th, 2016, 10:44 pm

This is a serious question about asking whether those cover and PE numbers for VOD are genuine or whether there is some legacy from Verizen which has yet to be unwound, affecting the ratios, or alternatively, whether it was only Verizen which made VOD suitable in the first instance.

I have much lower yielding shares that can be tinkered away first to sustain that if the VOD dividend fails drastically.


So, you'll wait for a weak share to fall over and then sell some slightly less weak shares and buy some better ones as a belated reaction....hmm.

Presumeably one of the aims of TJH's excellent ranking system was to try and remove such emotions from top-up decisions?

TJH's ranking system does not help you determine anything about the suitability of the shares, does it? and looking at the consistently poor PE and cover ratios which VOD displays is the very opposite of emotion. It has been a problem with VOD ever since the Verizen uncoupling.
To put it another way: would VOD pass the safety requirements of a pyadic HYP now? If not, there's a good reason for questioning it's continued inclusion in a HYP. That is also true of other shares, of course, and a HYP is a sum of its components: there's a valid argument that each component should be examined from time to time, especially so within a tinkering HYP.

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8837

Postby YeeWo » November 25th, 2016, 8:59 am

CommissarJones wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:In fact, several of my holdings are giving me coverage-related concerns, as I also have BP, GSK and RDSB.

As things stand BP - 7%, GSK - 5%, RDSB - 9% & VOD - 5% of my portfolio. If it becomes modish for Management to justify rebasing I guess I'm quite vulnerable! That said Equity Investing has to be rationally optimistic and I remain so! I topped-up Vodafone this morning. ;)

Talking of "The Oilies" : http://www.standard.co.uk/business/simo ... 01831.html

Opinions gratefully sought on Simon English's opinion(s)!!

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8849

Postby Arborbridge » November 25th, 2016, 9:23 am

Arborbridge wrote:
In fact, several of my holdings are giving me coverage-related concerns, as I also have BP, GSK and RDSB.


We have to be little careful using the Lemon Fool quote system and to make sure we edit the result: I did not say that, as far as I know 8-)

(Although I do have all three)

My point about VOD is that it has been a particularly "stand out" case of lack of coverage and high P/E for a long time which prompted me to ask if it genuine, and if so whether we should take the risk. BP and RDSB also come with the same problem but I only mentioned VOD as it was the subject of this thread, and happens to be top of my HYPTUSS table.

I have no particular attachment to VOD but it would be difficult to sell and get somewhere near the same yield without topping up shares which I'm already well endowed with. A real first world problem.

Arb.

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Re: I see VOD yield is now above 5.8%

#8852

Postby moorfield » November 25th, 2016, 9:30 am

Arborbridge wrote:This is a serious question about asking whether those cover and PE numbers for VOD are genuine or whether there is some legacy from Verizen which has yet to be unwound, affecting the ratios, or alternatively, whether it was only Verizen which made VOD suitable in the first instance.


Yes since Verizon was a significant component of "old" VOD for a long time, I think we need to see at least 3 years of annual accounts before we can divine any comparison from the ratios with "new" VOD.

So, you'll wait for a weak share to fall over and then sell some slightly less weak shares and buy some better ones as a belated reaction....hmm.


Absolutely, yes, if circumstances demanded it, although I haven't had to do this yet. In practice though the weak share would likely go first if its dividend was cut completely. My HYP comfortably absorbed the Centrica (CNA) cut a couple of years ago and indeed beat its income target for that year without me needing to change anything.

To put it another way: would VOD pass the safety requirements of a pyadic HYP now? If not, there's a good reason for questioning it's continued inclusion in a HYP.


Ask 99 HYPsters here and you'll get 100 different answers .... Personally I would select VOD into a new HYP now on its yield (5.8%) and industry (telecoms).

That is also true of other shares, of course, and a HYP is a sum of its components: there's a valid argument that each component should be examined from time to time, especially so within a tinkering HYP.


This is why I like to track an overall target income curve. It prevents me from over-tinkering individual components and has an added usefulness in that I can use it to guesstimate the present value of my retirement income 15-20 years forward (which is currently about £44k).

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Re: I see VOD is now below 200p

#8872

Postby Arborbridge » November 25th, 2016, 10:17 am

Personally I would select VOD into a new HYP now on its yield (5.8%) and industry (telecoms).


With no reference to safety factors? I doubt whether many of your 100 HYPers would do the same :)
I also doubt whether many would suggest VOD as a new pick right now owing to those safety factors. As I remember it, pyad wrote that when topping up, one should look at the safety factors in the same way as you would for a new share. (Not that I always do, BTW! )

As for over-tinkering - I don't believe I do that, but I guess it's all a question of degree. My last voluntary complete sells were RSA and BBY in July 2015. I'd been quite patient with both and eventually decided to move elsewhere.
So, I would say I am a slow tinkerer.

Arb.


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