Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to eyeball08,Wondergirly,bofh,johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva, for Donating to support the site

Tidal Lagoons

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Tidal Lagoons

#22522

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 12th, 2017, 3:35 pm

The long-awaited Hendry report has been published at https://hendryreview.wordpress.com/

He seems to be in favour of moving as fast as possible on Swansea Bay, and then on to bigger projects. Those who followed discussion on TMF's renewables board will find this conclusion unsurprising:
I conclude that tidal lagoons would help deliver security of supply; they would assist in delivering our decarbonisation commitments; and they would bring real and substantial opportunities for the UK supply chain. Most importantly, it is clear that tidal lagoons at scale could deliver low carbon power in a way that is very competitive with other low carbon sources. The aim now is that we should move to secure the pathfinder project as swiftly as possible, so the learning opportunities it offers can be maximised.

jackdaww
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2081
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:53 am
Has thanked: 3203 times
Been thanked: 417 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22581

Postby jackdaww » January 12th, 2017, 5:56 pm

i dream of driving from west wales to devon via the severn barrage motorway from newport to brean or thereabouts.

it surely cant be impossible to preserve the wildlife wetlands along the estuary .

the tidal power available must be enormous .

i doubt i will see it though.

. 8-)

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22697

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 12th, 2017, 11:53 pm

jackdaww wrote:i dream of driving from west wales to devon via the severn barrage motorway from newport to brean or thereabouts.

it surely cant be impossible to preserve the wildlife wetlands along the estuary .

the tidal power available must be enormous .

i doubt i will see it though.

. 8-)

This may be out of date, but ..

I recollect a time when the only voice not in favour of the Swansea lagoon was Neath MP Peter Hain. His objection was that it's not the Severn Barrage, which he supports.

One small advantage of the Swansea lagoon is that it doesn't affect the Severn Barrage if that (or a successor proposal) ever gets approval. It's well outside the barrage.

Nimrod103
Lemon Half
Posts: 6602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 969 times
Been thanked: 2315 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22743

Postby Nimrod103 » January 13th, 2017, 9:09 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:The long-awaited Hendry report has been published at https://hendryreview.wordpress.com/

He seems to be in favour of moving as fast as possible on Swansea Bay, and then on to bigger projects. Those who followed discussion on TMF's renewables board will find this conclusion unsurprising:
I conclude that tidal lagoons would help deliver security of supply; they would assist in delivering our decarbonisation commitments; and they would bring real and substantial opportunities for the UK supply chain. Most importantly, it is clear that tidal lagoons at scale could deliver low carbon power in a way that is very competitive with other low carbon sources. The aim now is that we should move to secure the pathfinder project as swiftly as possible, so the learning opportunities it offers can be maximised.


I looked in vain through the Hendry report for a summary of the profits to be made from tidal lagoon power generation - there only seemed to be discussion of the subsidy required.

However, this statement did catch my eye:
For a pathfinder tidal lagoon, the Review estimates the average additional cost on a household’s annual electricity bill to be:
• c.35-45p in earlier periods (first 15 years)
• c.20-30p in later periods (Year 30 to Year 60)

I understand from the radio news that this lagoon will provide electricity for 150,000 households, so the additional cost per year will be 150,000 x £0.4 (average) = £60,000. Hmm, a bargain. Hendry doesn't say, but I think he means the cost will be levied on all UK households i.e. 26,700,000 x £0.4 = £10.7 MM. So £10.7MM more than necessary for providing electricity to 0.56% of the nations households. This is the economics of the madhouse.

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22787

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 13th, 2017, 10:42 am

Nimrod103 wrote:This is the economics of the madhouse.

I don't entirely follow your numbers, but if you compare to the first households to get FITs it's an obvious bargain. Of course, FITs have come down, along with costs, in a now-much-more-mature industry. Yet even at today's levels, FITs are on a calculation like yours, the economics of the madhouse.

If the Victorians had thought like you, we wouldn't have railways, sewers, nor the national grid.

One thing altogether more mad than any economics is the effectively-infinite subsidy to fossil fuels implied in their unlimited license to pollute. And indeed some of the worse alternatives, notably the accelerated-fossil-fuel cycle of depleting organic combustibles ranging from wood to peat, or of growing crops to burn.

Nimrod103
Lemon Half
Posts: 6602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 969 times
Been thanked: 2315 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22807

Postby Nimrod103 » January 13th, 2017, 11:11 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:This is the economics of the madhouse.

I don't entirely follow your numbers, but if you compare to the first households to get FITs it's an obvious bargain. Of course, FITs have come down, along with costs, in a now-much-more-mature industry. Yet even at today's levels, FITs are on a calculation like yours, the economics of the madhouse.

If the Victorians had thought like you, we wouldn't have railways, sewers, nor the national grid.

One thing altogether more mad than any economics is the effectively-infinite subsidy to fossil fuels implied in their unlimited license to pollute. And indeed some of the worse alternatives, notably the accelerated-fossil-fuel cycle of depleting organic combustibles ranging from wood to peat, or of growing crops to burn.


Which part of my calculation don't you follow?

Contrariwise, the Victorians were committed to privately funded, profit making railways. The Midland Railway and the LNWR were some of the most reliable dividend payers in the 19th century. Sewers are slightly different as they provided a public good, but were still paid for by the users through the rates.
As to the 'fossil fuel subsidy', can you put figures on that? And if it exists, why should only us, rather than the whole World pay it?

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22928

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 13th, 2017, 5:01 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Which part of my calculation don't you follow?

Contrariwise, the Victorians were committed to privately funded, profit making railways. The Midland Railway and the LNWR were some of the most reliable dividend payers in the 19th century. Sewers are slightly different as they provided a public good, but were still paid for by the users through the rates.

Some of the railways were profitable, but only after vast up-front investment and a lot of busts.

In some ways the sewers are a better analogy: they save everyone from something nasty which, as population densities grew, had become a huge problem. Clean energy today is necessary for the same reasons.
As to the 'fossil fuel subsidy', can you put figures on that? And if it exists, why should only us, rather than the whole World pay it?

A figure on that would be a price at which world consumption falls to an equilibrium state. As regards your second question, see https://bahumbug.wordpress.com/2006/10/30/green-taxes/ .

Nimrod103
Lemon Half
Posts: 6602
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 969 times
Been thanked: 2315 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#22948

Postby Nimrod103 » January 13th, 2017, 6:39 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Some of the railways were profitable, but only after vast up-front investment and a lot of busts.
That is why potential investors put together a firm business case, to justify the investment. Victorian railways were no different. Almost all the existing network of mainlines was in place by 1860, and the high profitability of these early lines encouraged over-investment in some competing lines - and the profitability of all began to suffer. The main companies which went bust were casualties of the colossal Overend Gurney Bank collapse of 1866. But the point remains, if we invest in projects which are designed to lose money, we will all be poorer quite quickly.
As to the 'fossil fuel subsidy', can you put figures on that? And if it exists, why should only us, rather than the whole World pay it?

A figure on that would be a price at which world consumption falls to an equilibrium state.
What penalty should we impose on developing countries who want to increase fossil fuel export and consumption

Hallucigenia
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2672
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 3:03 am
Has thanked: 170 times
Been thanked: 1753 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#24847

Postby Hallucigenia » January 20th, 2017, 8:09 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:the effectively-infinite subsidy to fossil fuels implied in their unlimited license to pollute.


It's not an infinite subsidy though, because we only burn finite amounts of fossil fuel. If you look at the IMF study of fossil-fuel subsidies (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sur ... 70215A.htm ) they reckoned UK subsidies (almost all in terms of tolerating either local pollution or greenhouse contributions, whereas eg Saudi has direct cash subsidies on petrol) amounted to US$276m for "petroleum", US$12.339bn for gas and US$28.619bn for coal in 2015.

From memory that worked out at about £15/MWh for electricity generated from gas, and about £60/MWh for coal - but if you're going to include that then you need to include all the health and environmental effects of renewables as well, it's not a free shot.

As an aside, the peak of railway mania was earlier, 1845-7 based on the success of the companies in the 1830s - but that led to the likes of George Hudson paying big dividends from a Ponzi scheme. Around a third of the railways authorised at that time were never built.

stockton
Lemon Slice
Posts: 326
Joined: November 30th, 2016, 7:19 pm
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 58 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26162

Postby stockton » January 25th, 2017, 6:30 pm

A fine example of what is wrong with this country's infrastructure. Instead of talking about it for the last 40 or more years, should it not simply have been built in the first place? Then worry about it later? Such a project has a useful life well exceeding 100 years at least. The energy provided in that time would be enormous.


The French had a go fifty years ago. I dont think the project was ever regarded as a great success.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rance_Tidal_Power_Station

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8267
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 919 times
Been thanked: 4130 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26221

Postby tjh290633 » January 25th, 2017, 11:04 pm

Quite true. The problem with barrages is that they destroy the tidal flow they were built to use. Small lagoons may have less effect unless they block off estuaries.

TJH

Hallucigenia
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2672
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 3:03 am
Has thanked: 170 times
Been thanked: 1753 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26556

Postby Hallucigenia » January 27th, 2017, 3:52 am

stockton wrote:The French had a go fifty years ago. I dont think the project was ever regarded as a great success.


La Rance paid off its capex in 20 years and is now producing the cheapest electricity in France at around £15/MWh some 50 years later. That hardly counts as a failure, although EDF got distracted by nuclear.

Part of the problem is that people struggle to think on a 100-year timescale, and usual funding solutions don't really work at that level. On the other hand, if you're ever going to build something that's a big upfront cost and low opex, then you want to do it when interest rates are 0.25%...

jackdaww
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2081
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:53 am
Has thanked: 3203 times
Been thanked: 417 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26574

Postby jackdaww » January 27th, 2017, 7:56 am

Hallucigenia wrote:
stockton wrote:The French had a go fifty years ago. I dont think the project was ever regarded as a great success.


La Rance paid off its capex in 20 years and is now producing the cheapest electricity in France at around £15/MWh some 50 years later. That hardly counts as a failure, although EDF got distracted by nuclear.

Part of the problem is that people struggle to think on a 100-year timescale,...........


================================

... which is dwarfed by many people's inability to contemplate the 10,000 (ten thousand) years , being the HALF life of nuclear extremely toxic end products .

:x

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26616

Postby dspp » January 27th, 2017, 10:15 am

The reason EDF said they would never do another La Rance was because of the landwards/upstream ecological impacts.
regards, dspp

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26656

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 27th, 2017, 11:38 am

dspp wrote:The reason EDF said they would never do another La Rance was because of the landwards/upstream ecological impacts.
regards, dspp

The estuary barrage is a strange hybrid: you have two separate movements of water. It's a hydro power station superimposed on a tidal enclosure. The two power sources add to each other as water flows out at low tide, but subtract from each other on the high tide as water flows in from both river and ocean. Overall, not an optimal configuration. And that's before even considering estuary mud and silt, which is of course constantly fed by the river.

The new generation of lagoons, starting with Swansea, are a rather different proposition. They're not estuaries and mudbanks, they're areas of sea on stretches of coast without significant water outlets. So a better proposition for energy generation over both rising and falling tide, and indeed, part of the R&D work for Swansea has been the design of new turbines optimised for generation from flows in both directions.

And of course, less ecological impact than a barrage or a hydro power dam. That is to say, both intuitively and in that the ecological impact studies for Swansea have been extremely comprehensive: more so than for any remotely comparable infrastructure project I'm aware of.

An exception to very-low-ecological-impact is the proposed lagoon for the Bridgewater bay, where it will serve a dual purpose. In normal conditions it will generate power like Swansea and the others. But with a hinterland prone to major flooding, it'll also serve as flood defence when necessary, maintaining a low-tide water level inside the lagoon and thus helping floodwater to drain more easily from the land.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26667

Postby dspp » January 27th, 2017, 12:07 pm

UE,

1. You may well be right re this aspect of the lagoon schemes, I was merely commenting on what I knew re the ecological bad outcome of La Rance,

2. I have had some experience in the design of low head turbines (1.5m - 2.5m). What do you know about how they are optimising bidirectionality ?

regards, dspp

UncleEbenezer
The full Lemon
Posts: 10783
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:17 pm
Has thanked: 1470 times
Been thanked: 2993 times

Re: Tidal Lagoons

#26694

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 27th, 2017, 1:57 pm

dspp wrote:2. I have had some experience in the design of low head turbines (1.5m - 2.5m). What do you know about how they are optimising bidirectionality ?

Only what I've gleaned from the Swansea folks' website and literature. From memory, there was some discussion of different turbine options and limitations in existing technology, and the conclusion was that they should look to design something optimised for their bidirectional setup.

Couldn't tell you anything on an engineering level, even if I had perfect recollection of what I'd seen/read.


Return to “Oil & Gas & Energy (Sector & Companies)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: PeterGray and 29 guests