FEEDs

youfoolishboy
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Re: FEEDs

Postby youfoolishboy » December 20th, 2016, 8:27 am

Fred
more info on the FEEDs at AMECFW the jobs are for Dhabi Oil Refining Company (TAKREER) and the other with Al Hosn Gas and are being done out of India and UAE as expected, they are not however even going with the pretense of running them out of London it would appear.

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » December 20th, 2016, 1:03 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:Fred
more info on the FEEDs at AMECFW the jobs are for Dhabi Oil Refining Company (TAKREER) and the other with Al Hosn Gas and are being done out of India and UAE as expected, they are not however even going with the pretense of running them out of London it would appear.
Thanks for the feedback. Appreciated. For sure, the office I am in in Seoul acts as little more than a post box to Mumbai.

mearnsfool
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Re: FEEDs

Postby mearnsfool » December 31st, 2016, 7:14 pm

Most of the recent FEED work for UK projects is for quite small projects i.e. a couple of subsea wells tied back to an existing platform.

No real increase in work at all in the small design houses that tend to get the FEEDs.

Rates are also cut back and manhour budgets are quite small.

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » December 31st, 2016, 7:19 pm

Thanks. Judging by the complete absence of emails about work that seems correct.

JPGH
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Re: FEEDs

Postby JPGH » January 1st, 2017, 8:45 pm

Couple of fairly big FEEDs 2027 that I am aware of namely Lake Albert/Buliisa (onshore Uganda, export pipeline FEED also) and also Lokichar (onshore Kenya, including export pipeline).
Some of this work may end up in London, but Paris a likely location for Uganda studies. Deep water projects are mainly tieback type stuff, am aware of an FPSO FEED for SBM in Guyana for Exxon and usual FLNG/LNG (rumours of) FEED study work bin Mozambique/Tanzania.
London based FEED Contractors all plan to be even more quiet (than H2 2016) for H1 2017. Also due to downturn many have left industry permanently so the critical skill "mass" (of expertise needed for execution of numerous large FEEDs all happening in parallel) is also significantly diminished. O&G Companies will go elsewhere (Far East or Houston) or keep work in "favourite" locations e.g. ENI tend to retain work in Milan, Total in Paris.
BREXIT may bring in some scraps of unexpected work to London/South East Contracting companies due to lower manhour rates.

Small to medium Oilies are loaded up to the gills with debt, so struggling with this burden to commit to too much expenditure (FEED studies are sometimes only a small part of the huge expenditure commitments required to deliver the DEFINE phase, which assuing success will eventually leads to Final Investment Decision FID (proposal for board to sanction project). In parallel Partners and numerous other stakeholders will also need to be brought over the line for their respective FIDs/development plan approvals/permitting...etc. All costs money. Subsurface appraisal work expenditure also continues in parallel to FEED studies....hence even though the FEED study component a Contractor sees may not costseem to cost a lot to execute, the Project stage overall expenditure can be very high. Big Oilies can afford to do DEFINE phase greenfield projects including FEED studies in 2017 and all the parallel work, rest of us are really struggling.
JPGH

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » January 1st, 2017, 9:14 pm

Thanks for the thoughts. No Gorgon LNG on the immediate horizon, obviously. It seems to me I'm better off in my own long term niche of petrochem/downstream. Seoul until maybe March 2018 looks a good place for me to be.

youfoolishboy
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Re: FEEDs

Postby youfoolishboy » January 2nd, 2017, 2:43 pm

JPGH wrote:Couple of fairly big FEEDs 2027 that I am aware of namely Lake Albert/Buliisa (onshore Uganda, export pipeline FEED also) and also Lokichar (onshore Kenya, including export pipeline).
Some of this work may end up in London, but Paris a likely location for Uganda studies. Deep water projects are mainly tieback type stuff, am aware of an FPSO FEED for SBM in Guyana for Exxon and usual FLNG/LNG (rumours of) FEED study work bin Mozambique/Tanzania.
London based FEED Contractors all plan to be even more quiet (than H2 2016) for H1 2017. Also due to downturn many have left industry permanently so the critical skill "mass" (of expertise needed for execution of numerous large FEEDs all happening in parallel) is also significantly diminished. O&G Companies will go elsewhere (Far East or Houston) or keep work in "favourite" locations e.g. ENI tend to retain work in Milan, Total in Paris.
BREXIT may bring in some scraps of unexpected work to London/South East Contracting companies due to lower manhour rates.
JPGH


Not sure I agree that contractors have left the industry never to return. The rates in O&G are normally the best going so people migrate back when there is work, mind you the government is doing its best to discourage anyone working contract at the moment so that will have an impact. I know no one who has changed industry but know a few doing nothing and a few overseas. Regards using Paris and Milan I suspect they may choose UK offices in the future as the reason they keep the EU offices is that it costs too much to fire the staff and then rehire when there is work. If things continue as is i.e. very little work in Europe then they may decide to relocate to UK where workforce is fully flexable. All food for thought but as usual in O&G things only become obvious in hindsight. Currently I see no real work going to the UK but increased FEED work is green shoots where ever its done but I think I may keep out of UK for another year if you hear of any big design contracts hitting London let me know I will get the first flight back!

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » January 2nd, 2017, 4:27 pm

In fact, I tried migrating into nuclear new build but gave up inthe early part of this year and went back to my petrochem roots at the first available (albeit overseas) opportunity. I do know quite a few UK London centric staff and contractors who have retired the last year or 18 months, so at the first sign of a pick up, the talent pool may be shallower than it has been for quite some time. For me, I see no return before Q2 2018 at the earliest and even then only if the project was interesting enough and Mr Hammond not made MyCo Ltd untenable as it soon will be in the public sector.

youfoolishboy
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Re: FEEDs

Postby youfoolishboy » January 2nd, 2017, 4:59 pm

FredBloggs wrote: For me, I see no return before Q2 2018 at the earliest and even then only if the project was interesting enough and Mr Hammond not made MyCo Ltd untenable as it soon will be in the public sector.


I am hoping the subsequent shortage of workers in the public sector may cause Mr Hammond to revise his theory.

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » January 2nd, 2017, 5:09 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:
FredBloggs wrote: For me, I see no return before Q2 2018 at the earliest and even then only if the project was interesting enough and Mr Hammond not made MyCo Ltd untenable as it soon will be in the public sector.


I am hoping the subsequent shortage of workers in the public sector may cause Mr Hammond to revise his theory.

Hmmm, a couple of things make me doubt that outcome.

1 Big service firms are ready and will fill the gap quite easily, I think. Plenty of on shore and off shore solutions are open to them when offering tenders to HMG depts.

2 The voracious and hugely out of control public spending machine demands ever increasing proportions of GDP. As you know, this market sector has been a target since 2000 and I think the scene is set for it to finally bite. The public sector roll out is the first step along that path.

But then, I could be wrong.............

PeterGray
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Re: FEEDs

Postby PeterGray » January 2nd, 2017, 6:49 pm

The voracious and hugely out of control public spending machine demands ever increasing proportions of GDP.

Public spending as % GDP has been broadly flat since the peak during WW2. Slightly lower than now till the mid 60s, a bit higher than now for the next 20 years to the mid 80's, then slightly lower until a rise following the 2008 crash, which has now subsided to the long term baseline.

Peter

FredBloggs
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Re: FEEDs

Postby FredBloggs » January 2nd, 2017, 7:13 pm

Yes, Peter my choice of GDP was perhaps unwise. The low point was under Mrs Thatcher and Mr Brown destroyed that with his "investments". A more suitable term for me to use would have been - "An ever increasing slice of your income". Mainly WRT the UK's flexible workforce, relevant to this thread.


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