PO scandal redux

[XFool]

The US has the right idea. A PO does mail and NOTHING ELSE. All the grannies cashing their pension cheques should go to a bank. (I always avoid going to a PO at 9 a.m. as that is peak time for grannies.

Surely that hasn't been a thing for years?

[didds]

Pubs are losing custom almost everywhere and that means that they are likely to go the same way as the post ofices.

.

They are.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

[UncleEbenezer]

Pubs are losing custom almost everywhere and that means that they are likely to go the same way as the post ofices.

.

They are.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

On the one hand, pubs have been losing out to coffee shops for a generation, and were already losing before even that. Obviously that affects some types of pub more than others.
On the other hand, the years in question will've been influenced by the one-off troubles of lockdown.
But against that, those figures appear spun. Surely many (the majority of) pubs that close subsequently re-open? The more relevant figure would be net closures.

[tjh290633]

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

51+77=128.

Was that 2022?

TJH

[Oggy]

didds wrote:

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

51+77=128.

Was that 2022?

Doubtless the figures were compiled after an in-depth examination of the atmosphere and conviviality of one of the pubs which did not close - purely in the spirit of research naturally......

[Lootman]

They are.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

On the one hand, pubs have been losing out to coffee shops for a generation, and were already losing before even that. Obviously that affects some types of pub more than others.

On the other hand, the years in question will've been influenced by the one-off troubles of lockdown. But against that, those figures appear spun. Surely many (the majority of) pubs that close subsequently re-open? The more relevant figure would be net closures.

I can agree that pubs have been in decline for decades but I am less sure that it is the growth of coffee places that is the cause.

For a start coffee places open early and many are closed by 5 p.m. They do most of their business in the mornings, before most pubs are open. Pubs get busier as the days moves on, especially in the evenings. I doubt that many people go to Starbucks for a night out, or even for a lunch out. They are more places to take a break whilst out doing other things and not a destination in themselves like pubs are or can be.

I frequently visit both coffee places and pubs, and I do not see them as competing with each other. Then again I can afford to go to both.

[UncleEbenezer]

On the one hand, pubs have been losing out to coffee shops for a generation, and were already losing before even that. Obviously that affects some types of pub more than others.

On the other hand, the years in question will've been influenced by the one-off troubles of lockdown. But against that, those figures appear spun. Surely many (the majority of) pubs that close subsequently re-open? The more relevant figure would be net closures.

I can agree that pubs have been in decline for decades but I am less sure that it is the growth of coffee places that is the cause.

For a start coffee places open early and many are closed by 5 p.m. They do most of their business in the mornings, before most pubs are open. Pubs get busier as the days moves on, especially in the evenings. I doubt that many people go to Starbucks for a night out, or even for a lunch out. They are more places to take a break whilst out doing other things and not a destination in themselves like pubs are or can be.

I frequently visit both coffee places and pubs, and I do not see them as competing with each other. Then again I can afford to go to both.

The rise of coffee shops is one cause. There's a market for going out for a daytime informal social meeting with refreshments, or just grabbing sustenance somewhere you can sit down, and that's been moving from the pub to the coffee shop.

Whitbread got it right around the turn of the century, when they got out of brewing beer and bought the Costa chain (which they've now of course sold). Out of a struggling market and in to a good growth one. I felt rather smug about it back in TMF days when one of David Kuo's guests spoke of GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) investing, and gave (IIRC) eight suggestions over the course of the interview. My suggestion in the comments was WTB. Over one, two, and three years from that piece it substantially outperformed all the guest's picks, the best of which had been Compass Group.

[Lootman]

I can agree that pubs have been in decline for decades but I am less sure that it is the growth of coffee places that is the cause.

For a start coffee places open early and many are closed by 5 p.m. They do most of their business in the mornings, before most pubs are open. Pubs get busier as the days moves on, especially in the evenings. I doubt that many people go to Starbucks for a night out, or even for a lunch out. They are more places to take a break whilst out doing other things and not a destination in themselves like pubs are or can be.

I frequently visit both coffee places and pubs, and I do not see them as competing with each other. Then again I can afford to go to both.

The rise of coffee shops is one cause. There's a market for going out for a daytime informal social meeting with refreshments, or just grabbing sustenance somewhere you can sit down, and that's been moving from the pub to the coffee shop.

Whitbread got it right around the turn of the century, when they got out of brewing beer and bought the Costa chain (which they've now of course sold). Out of a struggling market and in to a good growth one. I felt rather smug about it back in TMF days when one of David Kuo's guests spoke of GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) investing, and gave (IIRC) eight suggestions over the course of the interview. My suggestion in the comments was WTB. Over one, two, and three years from that piece it substantially outperformed all the guest's picks, the best of which had been Compass Group.

To some extent perhaps. Some pubs and pub chains now open at 7 or 8 in the morning to capture the coffee and breakfast trade, even though they do not serve alcohol until 9 a.m. Even so, not many coffee places stay open late.

As for Whitbread, they also own Premier Inn hotels and various restaurant chains, and so are probably best seen as a hospitality company rather than a brewer or pubco these days.

[didds]

[ Surely many (the majority of) pubs that close subsequently re-open? The more relevant figure would be net closures.

Id have to say in my admittedly limited exposure to this over the last couple of decades in central wiltshire, Id say when pubs CLOSE they close for good. By CLOSE I don't mean "tenants move on, somebody comes in a couple of weeks later". Its more "several tenants have tried and failed over a number of years and now the last one has left and the place is up for sale". There's a pub in town that fits that bill aside for the last "up for sale" step... which has to be imminent. In the last 18 months its been not open for businesses longer than its been open for business. Not helped I am sure by the brewery that its tied to extending its visitors centre and tap room hours to be open on Friday night and Saturday night and then getting a pizza van on site to the visitor centre on Friday evenings (and jolly nice pizza it is too!). Its as if the brewery didn't understand they were shooting their own tenants - located 100m from the visitor's centre - in the foot.... or did they...? There's quite a lot of redevelopment happening in that immediate area of town...

I can think of only ONE pub that's closed in the past twenty years around here that has reopened, after the above scenario having played out, and that is now really a finer-dining establishment with a bar in reality.

[didds]

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/ ... -to-climb/

2023 report:
"The research revealed that from the beginning of January to the end of June this year, 383 pubs closed across the UK, compared to 386 throughout 2022. The average number of closures during the first three months of 2023 was 51, and for the second quarter it was a staggering 77."

51+77=128.

Was that 2022?

TJH

isnt that

3 months @ 51 = 153
3 months @ 77 = 241

Total over 6 months = 394

its a mess of averages here versus real actual numbers(mean/median/mode?) but I read that "average" being EACH month, so 394 over 6 months being all but 383 etc etc

didds

[didds]

I frequently visit both coffee places and pubs, and I do not see them as competing with each other. .

Id agree.

If anything the annoying thing - despite Blairs witterings about European cafe cultures, is that cafes of an evening just don't exist in the UK on the whole. Certainly not outside of city and large town centres anyway (if they even exist there).

Want a coffee and a sandwich after 7pm? Forget it. After 6pm ? forget it. After 5pm - maybe Costa is still open?


But I agree with Lootman. They aren't in competition - least not in market town and village UK. Pubs competition is super cheap supermarket booze and Netflix et al, maybe enforced with smoking bans and the paucity of public transport and the social view of drink driving (not that that very last is wrong I hasten to add! Its just proffered often a reason why pub habits have changed ). WRT smoking bans ... as Ive never been a smoker I cant really comment but if people stopped going to the pub JUST because they had to puff away outside for 5 minutes that seems a tad ... spurious. But as a non smoker what do I know!?!

Going back to a comment elsewhere about lockdown etc ... its certainly exacerbated a trend but the slump in pub attendance and subsequent closure rates was well under way before covid was a twinkle in a Wuhan lab technicians eye...

[Lootman]

I frequently visit both coffee places and pubs, and I do not see them as competing with each other. .

Id agree.

If anything the annoying thing - despite Blairs witterings about European cafe cultures, is that cafes of an evening just don't exist in the UK on the whole. Certainly not outside of city and large town centres anyway (if they even exist there).

Want a coffee and a sandwich after 7pm? Forget it. After 6pm ? forget it. After 5pm - maybe Costa is still open?

But I agree with Lootman. They aren't in competition - least not in market town and village UK.

The only establishment I know of that tries to marry the two themes is Artigiano, and I have been to their locations in St. Paul's and in Exeter:

"Artigiano is a highly acclaimed speciality coffee provider by day and a vibrant, trendy wine bar by night. During the day Artigiano is an independent coffee shop that offers speciality coffee, fresh juices & smoothies, and food."

https://artigiano.uk.com/

You can go there for coffee and breakfast at 8 a.m. and/or for wine and music at 8 p.m.

But I guess if there was that much demand for hybrid/fusion places like that then there would be a lot more of them. Or else UK licensing laws make it difficult.

[didds]

Artigiano ?

1, Paternoster Square London EC4M 7DX
248 High Street Exeter, Devon EX4 3PZ

Im not entirelyt convinced that that proves the general rule incorrect.

Want a coffee and a sandwich at 6pm outside of two immediate city centres?

nahhh.....

[Lootman]

Artigiano ?

1, Paternoster Square London EC4M 7DX
248 High Street Exeter, Devon EX4 3PZ

Im not entirely convinced that that proves the general rule incorrect.

Want a coffee and a sandwich at 6pm outside of two immediate city centres?

nahhh.....

At wetherspoons, perhaps?

[didds]

Im glad you put a smiley on that!

[tjh290633]

51+77=128.

Was that 2022?

TJH

isnt that

3 months @ 51 = 153
3 months @ 77 = 241

Total over 6 months = 394

its a mess of averages here versus real actual numbers(mean/median/mode?) but I read that "average" being EACH month, so 394 over 6 months being all but 383 etc etc

didds

So it was the monthly average. Seems an odd figure to quote.

TJH

[didds]

yeah! agreed!