Manchester United (NYSE: MANU)

[SalvorHardin]

Also if the European Super League rises from the dead

I do hope NOT
leave the EPL alone, it is fine as it is
as we saw with their botched attempt last time, the fans don't want it

As a fan I agree with you 100%.

But as a shareholder I want a European Super League and an end to relegation from the Premier League (and thus promotion to it).

IMHO it is only a matter of time before the top clubs create a European Super League, either by themselves or getting UEFA to agree to their terms.

A lot of what sporting bodies do almost certainly falls foul of competition law. Such as preventing clubs from taking part in other competitions outside UEFA's control. That's the basis of the European Super Leagur's case against UEFA.

"The argument of the Super League lawyers is simple and clear. UEFA and FIFA have a monopoly on organising international football competitions for clubs and national teams. The Super League challenges (part of) this monopoly.

UEFA and FIFA have harmed a new competitor with their sanctions, which include a ban for Super League players participating in the FIFA World Cup and the UEFA Nations League among other things. This is an abuse of their monopoly position, and is incompatible with EU competition law."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/12/06/why-the-european-court-of-justice-should-rule-against-the-european-super-league/

[Spet0789]

After looking further into the recent results, I've taken some profits by selling half of my shareholding. I also wanted to raise some cash to buy some bombed out American REITs, so it was a fairly easy decision to make.

The results were worse than I thought. If trading continues in the same vein the club will be bankrupt within a couple of years. It won't go bust, even if the gimps don't sell up, as the club will drastically cut its spending on transfers. Which should worsen the on-pitch results.

It turns out that two of the Glazers recently tried to borrow enough to buy the other four out. But no-one wanted to lend them the money. Phew!

Given how the gimps have mismanaged the club into the ground (our finances are starting to look a bit like Barcelona's) they're going to find it very difficult to get a substantial minority investor. Phew again!

Anyway, I'm holding on with my remaining shares in anticipation of a bid. It is possible that the gimps won't sell, expecting that they can get more in the future.

Also if the European Super League rises from the dead (if it wins its court case against UEFA) and if the Premier League moves to becoming an American-style no-relegation league (American owners want this), then this could justify the sort if price tag that the gimps are reckoned to want (£7 billion to £9 billion).

As an [expletive deleted] fan, it would be very amusing to see Man U go bankrupt.

[pje16]

Also if the European Super League rises from the dead

I do hope NOT
leave the EPL alone, it is fine as it is
as we saw with their botched attempt last time, the fans don't want it

As a fan I agree with you 100%.

But as a shareholder I want a European Super League and an end to relegation from the Premier League (and thus promotion to it).

I understand your view, but football for me is ruled by my heart not my wallet, each to their own though

[pje16]

As an [expletive deleted] fan, it would be very amusing to see Man U go bankrupt.

I do like starting my day with a smile

[mike]

Also if the European Super League rises from the dead

I do hope NOT
leave the EPL alone, it is fine as it is
as we saw with their botched attempt last time, the fans don't want it

As a fan I agree with you 100%.

But as a shareholder I want a European Super League and an end to relegation from the Premier League (and thus promotion to it).

I understand your view, but football for me is ruled by my heart not my wallet, each to their own though

Looks like the Super League in it's current incarnation is off the table according to a report in The Telegraph.

The European Super League rebel three of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus have been dealt a huge blow in their legal case against Uefa’s monopoly when the expert advice to judges was that the governing body has legitimate power over club competitions.

The ESL rebel three had sought to overturn Uefa’s historic right to organise club competitions, such as the Champions League and Europa League, in the wake of the disastrous Super League launch in April last year. But the advice to judges ahead of their decision next year from the European Court of Justice advocate-general, was heavily in favour of Uefa monopoly position.

Athanasios Rantos’s advice is not binding to the ECJ judges but in most cases it is followed. He found that EU competition law was compatible with the restrictions that Uefa and Fifa’s power asserted over football and “proportionate” for achieving Uefa's “legitimate objectives” in line with the EU policy on sport. He advised that the sanctioning power of Uefa over clubs that formed breakaways and its right to pre-authorise rival competitions was lawful.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Ffootball%2F2022%2F12%2F15%2Fsuper-league-finally-killed-european-court-rules-favour-uefa%2F

[SalvorHardin]

A few thoughts. The shares are now back over $23. There haven't been any major leaks since my last post, though there are persistent rumours that Dubai are leading the bidders (much of this comes from Twitter, from accounts with varying degrees of credibility).

The rumours are partly fuelled by Saudi Arabia pulling out of negotiations with Manchester United to become their main shirt sponsor. The Saudis probably aren't going to want their logo to be on another state's team's shirt.

United are looking for a new shirt sponsor to takeover from Team Viewer, who are pulling out almost all of their sponsorship deals as the ongoing cost is not far off their total sales.

I can't see the Glazers getting anything like the £9 billion rumoured asking price. Prospective buyers will have seen the shambles that is the accounts, and know that the Glazers are under some pressure. If there isn't a big influx of cash in the next few months, the club will struggle to bring in new players and will become forced sellers to balance the books.

In addition to £577 million of high interest debt (the debt that fans complain about), there is around £300 million of outstanding transfer fees to be paid. With only £24 million of cash on the books, prospective buyers know that the Glazers need to raise money, or put in cash of their own (which they won't do based upon their track record).

Fortunately for the Glazers, under the new manager the team is looking very good and they are now odds on to win this season's "Wenger Trophy" (4th place in the league and Champions League qualification). That will boost the eventual sale price.

I reckon that £4 billion to £5 billion is the upper limit for a buyer. That's a share price in the range of $29 to $36. As a shareholder I would however be delighted with a higher price

I'm still holding half of the shares I bought at just over $13, and Manchester United is my largest holding at just over 8% of my portfolio.

[SalvorHardin]

Just over an hour ago The Daily Telegraph published an article headlined:

"Exclusive: Manchester United takeover offers imminent from Middle East, Asia and US. Club are expected to invite bids by mid-February with Sir Jim Ratcliffe still monitoring the situation"

"It is unclear yet whether the Glazers want to completely end their hugely controversial 18-year ownership. United are expected to inform interested parties in the coming days that formal bids will be taken next month for total buyouts as well as minority stakes."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/01/13/manchester-united-takeover-bids-imminent-middle-east-asia-us/

I would be surprised if any bidder really wants to buy a minority stake. The Glazers tried to sell 30% of the club last summer but got no takers. A big negative in becoming a minority shareholder has to be how the club has been mismanaged, mostly by letting investment bankers play fantasy football with signings and paying vastly more attention to player's social media profiles than what they actually do on the pitch). Unless it comes with an option to buy the Glazers out in the future.

[scotview]

as we saw with their botched attempt last time, the fans don't want it

Just watched the nichts kickoff between United and Palace.

Januar, win' blaws cauld an' snell (Rabbie Burns)

They didnt bend the knee the nicht...even for Mr Rashford, and he was in at the start, WTF .........its an funny, funny, funny and STRANGE UK (well English) world we are living in !!!

Dont think Alex would have put up with all that cr**p.

[scotview]

MU takes the knee and keeps taking the knee at every game or it stops, like now.......what was that all about ???

[SalvorHardin]

Not much to report about the possible sale. No offers have leaked, which is a bit of a surprise, so the only known interested party is Sir Jim Ratcliffe's INEOS.

I had a further look through the last few sets of accounts and it's gruesome. The club loses money hand over fist with no end in sight. The club lost £115.5 million in 2021-22 and £92.2 million in 2020-21. In the first quarter of 2022-23 losses were £26.5 million. Borrowings plus transfer fees owed come to almost £890 million. Manchester United looks more like a licence to lose money. To make the club profitable requires major cutbacks in transfers, player wages, interest payments on the debt as well as a substantial increase in revenue.

One new development is this story from ESPN which says that the Glazers are considering holding onto the club because of recent successes. I don't consider this to be positive for shareholders because if the Glazers cling on they won't be putting money into the club. So the best hope is that they get someone else to do so. To really make money there would need to be a European Super League and probably an end to relegation from the Premier League, both of which are highly unlikely to occur. It's the third story down in the ESPN webpage linked below, titled "Man United owners split over club sale".

"The Glazer family remain undecided about whether to accept a full sale of Manchester United or partial investment, with sources telling ESPN that some within the ownership group believe that the value of the club could skyrocket if manager Erik ten Hag can oversee a sustained period of success on the pitch. The Glazers are exploring "strategic alternatives," which include a sale or outside investment and designated financial advisors The Raine Group fielding expressions of interest ahead of the submission of formal proposals."

https://www.espn.com.au/football/blog-soccer-transfers/story/4867454/man-united-psg-summer-target-victor-osimhen-could-cost-more-than-100m

At least the new CEO, Richard Arnold, isn't picking players to sign and his policy of "no dickheads" has gone down well.

"Tired of seeing the club at the mercy of troublemakers and problem players, Arnold had only one edict on transfers to Murtough and Ten Hag as part of their moves to reshape the dressing room: “No d---heads,” he would tell them."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/01/31/manchester-united-richard-arnold-taming-glazers-no-d-heads/

Something that leapt out at me from the recent quarterly report is that the club could end up paying £149 million in contingent transfer fees. These are noted as "off balance sheet arrangements" so there isn't any provision for this in the account. Granted, some of this is highly unlikely to be paid (£7.2 million if Anthony Martial wins the Ballon D'or).

Anyway I've still got 40% of the shares that I bought at just over $13. The price has gradually fallen back from the peak of about $23.50 to $22.12 as I type this. I'd be surprised if they got more than £4 billion for the club, given the awfulness of the accounts, which is $29.76 per share (though non-Glazer shareholders would get less because the Glazers will want a bigger piece of the pie as their shares have more votes than the shares owned by everyone else).

[BullDog]

Interesting stuff. I really don't think you want Sir Jim buying the club if it's lots of investment that's needed. If he ran United the way he runs his chemical businesses, massive investment is highly unlikely to happen. He's also very keen to spend other people's money and not his own too. He only ever buys highly distressed businesses at large discounts. I suppose that's how he got so stinking rich. I could be very wrong and he would be a terrific custodian of United. But I don't think that's likely.

[SalvorHardin]

Two different newspapers have reported today that Qatari investors are seriously interested in buying Manchester United.

The Guardian says the Emir of Qatar will offer £4.5 billion (the Emir is a big Manchester United fan).

"The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, is interested in buying Manchester United. He values the club below the Glazer family’s £6bn price and there is recognition Uefa may have to agree to a regulation change as the country’s ruler already owns Paris Saint-Germain."

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/08/emir-of-qatar-interested-in-buying-manchester-united-for-45bn

The Daily Mail says that it's a group of "private, high-wealth individuals", bit doesn't mention a price

"Manchester United are set to receive a massive offer from Qatari investors. The group are confident the bid will blow away rivals, with Glazers seeking £6bn"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-11724143/Manchester-United-Qatari-investors-make-bid-club-DAYS.html

£4.5 billion is $33.24 per share, minus whatever the Glazers cream off for their higher voting shares. Shares closed last night at $21.12 and are now $23.96 (+13.4%) with trading having just opened in New York.

[SalvorHardin]

About half an hour ago Bloomberg posted an article which said that Qatari investors are going to bid for Manchester United. I haven't read the original as it's behind a paywall and my free articles for the month have been used up, though I've read what claims to be the article on Reddit and on a Manchester United fansite. Here's the link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/qatar-is-said-to-prepare-imminent-bid-for-manchester-united-fc

Singapore's Business Times has just published this:

"The Qatari consortium is preparing to submit an initial bid for the English Premier League football club by the end of the week, the people said. Officials at sovereign wealth fund the Qatar Investment Authority are helping with preparations for a bid alongside local family offices, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information."

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/lifestyle/qatar-said-prepare-imminent-bid-manchester-united

The BBC published this earlier today:

"Qatari bid for Old Trafford club to be launched as deadline approaches"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64617640

[pje16]

The BBC published this earlier today:

"Qatari bid for Old Trafford club to be launched as deadline approaches"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64617640

at least Al-Khelaifi
is against the
European Super League
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60929239

[SalvorHardin]

The Daily Telegraph has just put up a story claiming that several Saudi Arabian groups are extremely interested in buying Manchester United.

"Multiple private groups in Riyadh have made formal inquiries and look set to battle Qatar and Sir Jim Ratcliffe in what could be the biggest deal in sporting history."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/02/16/saudi-arabia-poised-make-manchester-united-takeover-offer/

Tonight's match against Barcelona will have raised United's profile a bit; a great advert for the club given tomorrow's "soft" deadline for bids.

I bought a few more shares at halftime, mostly on the hope that there will be a Saudi v Qatar bidding war.

[SalvorHardin]

Last post tonight, otherwise I'll start looking like one of those "stream of consciousness" posters on ADVFN who post with every little bit of news.

Shares are up a further 8% in the last few minutes, to just over $27. The Times has just reported that they expect several bids tomorrow with a definite bid from Qatar

"Manchester United hope to be under new ownership before Easter, with a bid from Qatar due to land tomorrow as well as offers from a number of other serious bidders."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/14132dca-ae2a-11ed-9b9f-31b722fd39c6

[Lootman]

Tonight's match against Barcelona will have raised United's profile a bit; a great advert for the club given tomorrow's "soft" deadline for bids.

It is amazing how well Rashford is playing now that he has stopped being all political and instead focuses on his knitting.

[SalvorHardin]

Getting quite lively with the bids.

Anyway. Signing off. I have had a post deleted because I have posted about the hypocrisy of many posters on TLF slagging off Brexit and the UK yet never posting about investing in the EU.

So I have asked the mods to delete my account.

Off to Seeking Alpha full time

Bye

[BullDog]

Getting quite lively with the bids.

Anyway. Signing off. I have had a post deleted because I have posted about the hypocrisy of many posters on TLF slagging off Brexit and the UK yet never posting about investing in the EU.

So I have asked the mods to delete my account.

Off to Seeking Alpha full time

Bye

A shame, but highly understandable.

[Clariman]

Getting quite lively with the bids.

Anyway. Signing off. I have had a post deleted because I have posted about the hypocrisy of many posters on TLF slagging off Brexit and the UK yet never posting about investing in the EU.

So I have asked the mods to delete my account.

Off to Seeking Alpha full time

Bye

A shame, but highly understandable.

Moderator Message:
For the record, no posts by SalvorHardin have been deleted on TLF in the month of February so far. A couple have been edited. I think there may have been a misunderstanding somewhere.

Clariman