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Fairpoint Group (FRP)

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Carcosa
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Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#1745

Postby Carcosa » November 7th, 2016, 3:52 pm

At time of writing Fairpoint Group plc (FRP) share price is down 10% at 57p in afternoon trade for no (as yet) apparent reason.

Fairpoint Group provides a range of consumer targeted professional services. The group’s core business is a consumer legal operation (76% of H116 revenues), supported by legacy debt solutions services.

Current forecasts give a prospective yield of a remarkable 11% and the PER just 4.7x …and that is for the current year to Dec 2016.

Positive news surrounding this share is as follows:

Most of the above relates to national statistics and there is no way for me to know if FRP will get a bigger/smaller share of those improvements. There is also nothing I know about regarding the Simpson Miller financial hurdles i.e. how strenuous were those targets?

In FRP's Half year report* they said that an increase in exceptional costs has resulted in a sharp fall in first half pretax profit, and added that performance in the second half is likely to be similar. For the six months ended June 30, the company recorded pretax profit of £819k, down from £1.3 million pretax profit in the year ago period, on revenue of £28.3m and £22.9m, respectively. Exceptional costs, including amortization costs, in the period totaled £3.1m versus £2.8m.

Profit, before tax and exceptional items, remained broadly flat at £4.0m

The company said its previously announced decision to wind down debt management services business will lead exceptional costs in the second half of around £2.5m and a non-cash asset impairment charge of £5.5m.

The group has used a bank facility provided by AIB to finance acquisitions. That is reflected in higher net debt mid-year of £15.6m.

The company is changing into a focused legal services business and I see the current issues as temporary and reflected in the company's statement that the interim dividend level being maintained at 2.45p, reflecting confidence in the Group's transition into a Legal Services business.

For further reference see their last webinar* and the Equity Development note*

FWIW I bought a few shares in Fairpoint today...

NB * This forum only allows a max of three links so I will post the missing links in the next message (hopefully)

Carcosa

Carcosa
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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#1746

Postby Carcosa » November 7th, 2016, 3:53 pm


Asagi
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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#1810

Postby Asagi » November 7th, 2016, 5:34 pm

Dear Carcosa,

Thanks for posting - I'm in full agreement (for what it's worth!) that Fairpoint is an opportunity that any serious smallcap value investor should be running the rule over.

We were told in half-year results, issued on 15th September, calendar year-end:

Overall, the Group's performance in H2 likely to be similar to H1

Asagi (no position)

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#2660

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 9th, 2016, 9:12 am

From complete ignorance of FRP, I read your post, and somehow Quindell springs to mind. Is that a fair association?

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#2669

Postby Carcosa » November 9th, 2016, 9:19 am

No. But what similarities are you inferring?

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#5741

Postby LovelyLovelyGorgeous » November 16th, 2016, 7:05 pm

I think that the share is in a death spiral where the falling share price is shaking out other sellers, who sell which triggers more sellers and on it goes.

I don't understand why the market is so negative and am watching and waiting for the price to bottom out and turn up a bit. I suspect that this will happen once the next set of results confirm that trading is going well and that the old personal debt division is fully closed out.

I feel that now is not the time to buy as there are better prospects around in the near term - such as AVAP.

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#6629

Postby AdamB » November 18th, 2016, 10:41 pm

I used to hold FRP however sold out at the start of the year when it was clear that a couple parts of the business weren't doing well. I cant remember precisely but I think I lost 10% or so. In the 50p - 60p range though, from memory this should be justified by the legal services business on its own, though need to revisit the numbers. If so, it wont be a growth play and should trade on a low multiple, but should be able to support a very tasty yield, particularly when you consider where money market rates are currently

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#9913

Postby Carcosa » November 29th, 2016, 9:43 am

The number of loan approvals for house purchase in the UK rose to 62,932 in September of 2016 from an upwardly revised 60,984 in August. Figures came above market expectations of 61,500...


This should hopefully assist Fairpoint conveyancing volumes post Brexit

Carcosa

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#13701

Postby Carcosa » December 9th, 2016, 3:55 pm

Well that went horribly wrong. Trading update You just know its bad news when issued late on a Friday...

The full year results for the Group for the year ended 31 December 2016 are likely to be materially below market expectations. The Board is formulating plans to mitigate the potential impact on the trading performance and financial position of the Group going forward, including the suspension of future dividends.


Based on the recent work regarding profit warnings by Stockopedia I have sold me shareholding.

Carcosa

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#13720

Postby simoan » December 9th, 2016, 4:23 pm

Carcosa wrote:Well that went horribly wrong. Trading update You just know its bad news when issued late on a Friday...

The full year results for the Group for the year ended 31 December 2016 are likely to be materially below market expectations. The Board is formulating plans to mitigate the potential impact on the trading performance and financial position of the Group going forward, including the suspension of future dividends.


Carcosa


Ouch. A Friday PM Trading Update RNS is never going to be good news, you can almost sell on sight without reading it. Sorry if you took a hit but selling is the only sensible reaction.

All the best, Si

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#18345

Postby Carcosa » December 28th, 2016, 7:23 am

So the CEO leaves. Quite right too. Happy new year. Now opportunity for board/next CEO to kitchen sink the next set of results.

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Re: Fairpoint Group (FRP)

#18385

Postby WickedLester » December 28th, 2016, 12:51 pm

I agree Carcosa, his position was untenable given that the share price was clearly telling one story, while the company was telling another.

I'm sitting on a substantial %age loss on my investment in FRP but I bought in on good faith that the guidance was correct.

Lester


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