What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Cortana
Posts: 10
Joined: December 12th, 2016, 7:47 pm

What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby Cortana » January 2nd, 2017, 6:49 pm

If there is no official competition it would be nice to have an informal thread with ideas for 2017.

Not really looking for highly speculative boom and but stocks, just promising investment opportunities that ideally you already own or are going to own. It's not a competition! If you've time a brief write-up on each idea would be nice otherwise a simple list will do.

Cortana
Posts: 10
Joined: December 12th, 2016, 7:47 pm

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby Cortana » January 3rd, 2017, 9:14 am

1. Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust (EGL). I think this is a very good value income trust yielding 5.75% and at a current 15% discount to NAV. The portfolio mainly contains very large companies spread across UK,Europe and North America.

2. Macau Property Opportunities Fund (MPO). A property developer in Macao. The fortunes of this trust are very dependent on the business performance of the casinos and the shares have fallen to a >40% discount to NAV. However things are forecast to improve in 2017 and I believe the shares will rise strongly this year.

3. U&I (UAI). A UK property development trust at a 40% discount to NAV. Again I think the discount is too big here especially with a substantial dividend forecast.

tjh290633
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 228
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby tjh290633 » January 3rd, 2017, 11:52 am

I usually take my biggest losers from the previous year, which are:

LLOY   -14.08%
MARS -18.32%
BLND -19.91%
CLLN -20.03%
BT.A -22.22%
MKS -22.63%
TW. -24.42%
WMH -26.72%


Out of those I would suggest LLOY, TW. and WMH as being most likely to succeed.

LLOY must surely be free of the Government's holding soon; TW. has suffered from the fall in housebuilders, which must surely be reversed, because so many new houses are needed; WMH because the bookie always wins in the end.

TJH

FrankJohnstone
Posts: 6
Joined: November 29th, 2016, 10:21 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby FrankJohnstone » January 3rd, 2017, 2:44 pm

I've had a successful year investing in "special situations" which I'd classify as liquidations, partial cash returns and generally anything that looks extremely undervalued on a value basis. So on that basis I'l go for the following;

Rasmala(RMA)
Cambium Global Timberland (TREE)
Alternative Liquidity Fund (ALF)


RMA is a fund management type business. It's currently valued at less than 50% of net working capital (NWC) and at a 63% discount to NWC plus private equity. The NAV is more than 3 times the current share price. They are currently trying to sell the private equity. In the last final results the company admitted the shares were "materially undervalued" and they were looking at ways to increase the share price. Still waiting. I think the shares should be at twice the current share price.

TREE are a liquidating investment trust. They invested in timber hence the epic TREE. Clever eh? The last reported NAV is 22p and the shares are 7.25p of which approx 4p is cash if you count the proceeds of a sale of timber announced recently. They are also close to selling an asset in Hawaii which will leave about 15p of the NAV in Brazil. Running costs should reduce from the current approx 2p per annum as the assets are sold. A 100% profit here over a couple of years is realistic.

ALF has a NAV of 78 cents and against the share price of 15 cents. The investments are not liquid and may take a while to realise but the discount to NAV is huge and factors in a long time-frame and write-downs. The company is returning cash when investments are realised which is nice. Expecting 40-50 cents back over a 3 year period.

jwillis3
Posts: 2
Joined: November 16th, 2016, 12:44 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby jwillis3 » January 3rd, 2017, 5:53 pm

Im doing the opposite of TJH and backing my 2016 winners

BOO(+390%) and ASC(+50%) onllne retailers which I see continuing to grow and KWS Keyword Studios(+85%) for its online gaming technology support. Im not buying any more at the moment as they are well priced or even expensive but would look to top up if there were dips in the SP.

Good luck to all for 2017!
Willis

SalvorHardin
Posts: 23
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:32 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby SalvorHardin » January 4th, 2017, 1:18 pm

First up is also the property developer Macau Property Opportunities (MPO). This is a highly speculative play on things improving a bit in China, which boosts the demand for casino tourism to Macau, and on a narrowing discount. MPO's shares currently trade at a huge discount to their NAV, much larger than I've been used to seeing. Its 30th June 2016 NAV was $2.96 which at today’s exchange rate is 241p = 51% discount to the current share price of 118p. I’ve done very nicely out of MPO in the past, having sold out at just under 240p a couple of years ago.

Prospective investors should note that MPO has hedge fund-level charges (2% p.a. plus performance bonuses). The usual property development and illiquid asset risks apply, plus Chinese economic and political risk (as the biggest source of demand for Macau’s goods and services comes from China). When China catches a cold Macau gets pneumonia but when Macau is booming the demand for residential and commercial property can be quite staggering.

Macau’s economy should get a major boost when the bridge connecting Macau to Hong Kong finally opens in December 2017, if only because property in Macau is a lot cheaper than Hong Kong and a dramatically improved transport link should cause this gap to close somewhat.

Second is the London commercial property specialist Great Portland Estates (GPOR). GPOR’s shares took a hammering after the Brexit vote and fell by almost 20% in 2016. This now means that at the current price of 655p they trade at a near-20% discount to the most recent NAV (30th Sept 2016) of 813p.

The vast majority of GPOR’s properties are in the West End, slightly north of Oxford Street, and a big catalyst will be the completion of the Crossrail project, currently forecast to open in December 2018, which will drive traffic into the West End. An interesting comparison can be made with the other West End property major Shaftesbury, whose properties are primarily just south of Oxford Street and Shaftesbury Avenue (Shaftesbury owns a lot of Chinatown). Shaftesbury’s shares currently trade at a 5% premium to their NAV, though part of the difference is because the Hong Kong billionaire Sammy Tak Lee has built up a 14% stake in Shaftesbury (i.e. anticipating a possible bid).

Third up is the JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust. I’ve long been bullish about India, despite its bureaucracy, corruption and now the fiasco over the abolition of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes. India has many advantages over China; sooner or later the country will really get its act into gear – currently the sectors where there have been reforms are generally doing very well. Its shares currently trade at a discount of about 10%. This sort of investment is not for the faint hearted, especially if you haven’t got the stomach to hold on after fall of 20% or more.

dspp
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 223
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby dspp » January 4th, 2017, 1:56 pm

A single entry from me of Hurricane (HUR) which is a minor oil on AIM that is exploration only at present, going after fractured basement in the UK to the West of Shetlands. It is described in this thread (http://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796) and will likely have a binary outcome. Either they will hit oil in the Halifax prospect and the (2C) resources will move up to the unmissable 1bn barrels level for the big boys, or they will not and they will likely struggle to get through funding rounds to get the resources developed and reclassified as reserves. Currently trading with a mky cap of £568mn or so and an implied valuation of £1/bbl of resources. A lot of action is supposed to come to a head in the first half of 2017. Very much a punt in which you could lose it all. Oh and of course the oil price could make for even more excitement.
regards, dspp

MaraMan
Posts: 9
Joined: November 22nd, 2016, 3:30 pm

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby MaraMan » January 4th, 2017, 3:01 pm

I would propose Solgold (SOLG), an AIM listed Copper and Gold exploration company with concessions in the Andes in Ecuador. They have what seems to be some very promising finds and are planning listings on the TSX and the full UK stock exchange. Bit of a punt I know but this one seems to have a lot going for it. Second would be Fulcrum Utilities, I bought this when IC recommended it and it is already up 190% in just over a year, its a buy again in the latest IC. Its a British independent multi-utility provider and AIM listed (FCRM). Third choice is more conventional, I think Astrazeneca could have a good year, 16 was poor as expected but they have a useful pipeline of drugs reaching approval.

Happy investing to all Lemon Fools in 2017

MM

jackdaww
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 208
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:53 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby jackdaww » January 4th, 2017, 5:58 pm

greggs

solid , improving , decent yield , quite cheap now .

legal and general.

solid , good yield , not dear

shell.

dividends , BG potential.

8-)

Wasron
Posts: 9
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:03 pm

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby Wasron » January 4th, 2017, 9:31 pm

Cortana wrote:1. Ecofin Global Utilities and Infrastructure Trust (EGL). I think this is a very good value income trust yielding 5.75% and at a current 15% discount to NAV. The portfolio mainly contains very large companies spread across UK,Europe and North America.


Those two figures have me interested as I'm in the process of putting together a portfolio of ITs to complement my HYP. I've been on the trust's website and see it's the result of a previous Ecofin trust being broken up, but the holdings look good, with an international spread. What I don't understand is the discount, why so large, given the premiums to NAV you see on infrastructure specialists like HICL and JLIF?

Crusty
Posts: 1
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 6:56 pm

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby Crusty » January 4th, 2017, 10:00 pm

These are my selection, all of which I hold.

IQE quietly pushing the boundaries of chip structure on many fronts, none of which I understand at all, but 5g sounds good. Getting momentum now, and could be the next BritCo to exit to an opportunistic foreign takeover. dyor

European Metal Holdings (EMH) owns a world class (whatever that means) lithium deposit in Central Europe. Of course lithium could go out of fashion, or it could all be smoke and mirrors, but ....dyor.

Hardide (HDD) pure wishful thinking, but certain uses of Chrome coatings I understand are becoming internationally outlawed later this year necessitating substitution, O&G is enjoying something of a renaissance, Airbus approval pending and with a coatings plant up and running in Trump-land it could just be their year.

Sorry if they are rather speculative, but large caps and especially property (where nav's could plunge) seem to me fully priced.

Cortana
Posts: 10
Joined: December 12th, 2016, 7:47 pm

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby Cortana » January 5th, 2017, 7:57 am

Those two figures have me interested as I'm in the process of putting together a portfolio of ITs to complement my HYP. I've been on the trust's website and see it's the result of a previous Ecofin trust being broken up, but the holdings look good, with an international spread. What I don't understand is the discount, why so large, given the premiums to NAV you see on infrastructure specialists like HICL and JLIF?


BTEM have been selling down their shareholding which could be a major cause of the discount. They have gone below 3% and may be completely sold out now. Like you I am attracted to the discount and yield which seems a bit anomalous when compared to similar income type trusts. I've not looked closely at HICL and JLIF but I think they may be infrastructure whereas EGL is more utilities.

ermintrade
Posts: 6
Joined: November 9th, 2016, 11:42 am

Re: What are your top 3 stock picks for 2017?

Postby ermintrade » January 7th, 2017, 12:58 pm

My 3 picks are:
1/ Geiger Counter - this is actually a fund of uranium miners. The price of uranium is at a 13 year low, miners have been going bust. Japan is planning to bring back online its reactors and many other countries have plans for new reactors. A recent surge in the price of uranium suggests that the price is now entering a long upward phase.
2/ IQE - see the rationale in a post above.
3/ Greencore - a very successful convenience food manufacturer whose share price took a big hit when they announced a rights issue to buy a similar US company, Peacocks. This latter company is already successful, and there economies of scale. The PE of Greencore is now a reasonable 14.
Regards
Ermintrade


Return to “Share ideas”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest