The Lemon Fool

VOD has beeen weak recently, and went ex div last Thursday. I wonder what signal the charts are sending - e.g. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... PWTBDANCNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20] and http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=11. All comments gratefully received.

Jon

Jonetc15 wrote:... e.g. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... PWTBDANCNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]

Fixed that broken link for you http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... !!!2!20%5D

See.. viewtopic.php?f=27&t=389 for how to post links that include troublesome characters like the '[' and ']' in your chart.

Many thanks, Bree. I'll follow up.
ATB
Jon

Jon,

When I looked at this chart last night I couldn't see much of interest but with fresh mind and eye today I find it very technicaly interesting. I cannot get a candle chart from ADVFN until the market closes so you will just have to take my analysis and relate it to whatever charting facility you have.

First of all, the stock is oversold on momentum so it may try and flip up! Vod is sitting on the 38.2% fib at 196 which happens to be a major potential support (former resistance ie - the highs of 2001/2007 and 2008).

However, this is a bearish chart as it has broken down through the up trendline from 2008. Also, it peaked at the 161.8% fib retracement of the earlier fall 2008/9 and has retraced over 50% of the collapse 2000/2002.

If I convert your P & F chart to User Defined with box size 4 (1% of all the movement low to high available to me) and tick the box for reversal target, I see a tentative downside target of 156. I agree this was a bull trap as the bullish triple upside was quickly followed by a triple spread reversal move.

So I expect the bulls to try and lift the stock on the basis that it is oversold but unless it can recover the ground above the broken up trendline, it is a gonner!

OC

Very many thanks indeed OC for your time and trouble in replying. I hadn't appreciated the extent of the potential vulnerability. This is one of several income stocks that I'm watching to see if there is any signal of a possibly difficult time ahead. Really appreciate your analysis, upon which I'll ponder...

Jon

Here is the candlechart:

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscre ... l=L%5ELLOY

Note that the 61.8% fib is close to the P %F Stockcharts target!

Now reating on the 38.2% fib. 178 the 50% retracement also looks attractive in terms of horizontal support and resistance .

OC

Some times it is better to run the up trendline from the first prominent low after the bottom. In this case, the current price could be the third touch on this line (use a ruler on the chart on screen) if it bounces. The bear case needs more confirmation. I would prefer to see both lines crossed to the downside and re-tested. In any case, as Murphy says, in a strong uptrend a retracement of 38.2% is a minimum normal pullback.

I suppose it's a case of how much an individual investor is prepared to give back having regard to the original point of entry.

OC

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscre ... ol=L%5EVOD

Both lines crossed but maybe worth waiting for a pullback to test one or both up trendlines.

OC