Weather outlook for the FTSE

[oldcharlie]

I do not like the way the Index is stalling and seems reluctant to exceed the last top. It has the feel of 1987 about it.

The last top was bearish divergent in as much as it was showing level with the previous top on the RSI . Still I was looking for a couple more rallies with more pronounced bearish divergence to warn of a possible big pullback.

OC

[oldcharlie]

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... 0!!2!20%5D

The target on the P & F 60 box size chart is 8700. As i wrote above I was expecting another couple of rallies taking the Index higher but possibly creating a couple of bearish divergent highs on the RSI . major highs have often seen a flattening in the peaks on the RSI and then upto three lower highs that diverge from the patten on the price line.

Unfortunately, I am not able to update Metastock in the way that I have donw for some 20 years. As I am moving house shortly, it is not worth signing up to a newer version of Metastock. I will just have to make do with internet charts and the daily updates from Updata and David linton.

I do heartily recommend David's analysis which comes to me free each day and I think maybe on Youtube. His discussion today of how to pick winners from the NASDAQ was useful. He uses two techniques - cloud charts and 1% P & F charts- which I like. These supplemented with a momentum cchart (RSI or MACD) should give very good guidance.

OC

[DiamondEcho]

Thanks for the suggested analyst OC. His vids can also be found on his own website http://www.chartstoday.com/ [no need to subscribe for e-mails if you don't want them].
Interesting to watch the vid for yesterday. He starts with the major currency pairs [wow, is he bearish on the Euro!! that bit starts at c0m55s, talk of the Eur/US$ pair going [below parity] to '.80, .75 and .60, it's really looking pretty scary' ], and then goes into the indices with the FTSE starting on his latest vid at c4m30s. And wow is he bullish on the FTSE! He has a near-term target of 7520*. He also goes on to show how 'We're only now really breaking 15 years of flat markets. The market could really really run for a long period now. We could be back into a cycle like we saw in the 90s'

I wonder what time of day he issues his latest analysis, do you happen to know?


*FXEmpire have been flagging the 7500 level this week too. Their latest overnight for today can be summarised as 'Very bullish, taking a breather before going higher'.

[DiamondEcho]

And today's view from FXEmpire, since I have it open:
------------------------
'The FTSE 100 fell a bit during the day on Tuesday, as we continue to see volatility. I still believe that there is a significant amount of support at the 7325 handle, and therefore it’s only a matter of time before the buyers get involved. The longer-term uptrend is still the way this market is going, so I believe that we will eventually reach towards the 7500 level, but it could be a bit choppy between here and there. Selling isn’t even a thought, and I believe that the absolute “floor” in this market is 7200.'
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-393864
------------------------

Chartstoday's latest a/o yesterday has '7554 is the level we are looking at next'

[DiamondEcho]

Here's an interesting analysis It's the short, medium and long-term view on every stock in the FTSE-100!
I don't know how often he produces this but this appears to be the most recent.

Charts Today - FTSE 100 stocks review - 15 Feb 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXt8sOx ... e=youtu.be

Skip to circa 3.5minutes, the intro is how he sets up his software.

[DiamondEcho]

7260 was the 1st upside resistance level on IG this morning, and it's just had a wrestling match piercing it but it looks like it has [7372 at time of writing]. Optimism over the US-NFP data coming out later. Ig noted the next upside target as 'towards 7400'

[DiamondEcho]

Since I have them open, here are the FXEmpire daily for 13th-March, and weekly for next week...
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-394610
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-394662

He must use voice to text software, which leads to the occasional curious typo. In the Daily, 'gap tire' = 'gapped higher'

In the Weekly he talks about a break-out 'if we go above the top of last weeks candle'. Well the open and high on Monday was 7374.26 which was also the week's high, so perhaps that's the level he has in mind. And Friday's high was 7373.00... so perhaps -73/75 is what we need to break-out past.

ps. And if it's all a bit /TLDR, to summarise his weekly 'Market is positive, no interest in selling whatsoever'.

[DiamondEcho]

It's another one of those curious days when IG only give downside levels and not only that they give more levels than they'd usually give in total [up/down] in a more typical daily forecast. And as has happened previously on such a forecast so far the index has remained on the upside.
Pretty confusing [IMO] since the index closed up on Friday and Friday's indicated upside levels were 7360 and 'towards 7400'. Those haven't both magically disappeared, so I'm left wondering why today's report is so doom-laden...

Anyway FWIW, if you're feeling over-happy this morning, here are their levels...

7343.08 < Open @
7334 < 'Bullish momentum fizzles out if it goes below'
7310
7253 = '50 Day SMA'
7218
7174

Meanwhile at time of writing it's just nudging along under 7360.

[serpenteer]

I have been watching the FTSE over recent months with my bear hat on

I now see the FTSE making new highs, and have officially become a bull, the trend is now
my friend till the bend at the end.

Elliot Wave Analysis does not for me indicate any bearish tendencies. We may well see falls
back to 7000, or even slightly below but generally I can only now see an uptrend. I'll look out
some targets in the next few days. Just out of interest, 10000 may be surpassed in this trend,
mind we are talking in terms of years.

Just my 2p worth

Serpenteer

[DiamondEcho]

Chartstoday are also currently bullish. Today's view on the FTSE-100/250 starts at 2.35mins in.

To summarise:
'Bullish and above the cloud on all three timeframes' [60min/daily/weekly]. A 7555 upside target on the daily is activated. That's 2.5% upside.
FTSE-250 also bullish and above the cloud [on all three timeframes]. '
http://chartstoday.com/

[DiamondEcho]

IG again forecast another day with 5 [no less] down-levels and none up, yet the market ended up; ha!

[DiamondEcho]

Today IG has a resistance-zone between 7359/7363. With a 'closed hourly candle' above that suggesting we'd be breaking higher. Well we cleanly got that in the bag this morning.
FXEmpire today have a 'floor' at 7250, with 7500 as a long-term target [it has been there for a couple of weeks now] and comment 'No interest in selling'. Note, their forecasts take a shorter-term horizon than IG.
ChartsToday: FTSE-100, medium and long-term charts = bullish. Short-term 'just turned bullish too'. FTSE-250 = They note the index making a new record yesterday, bullish in S/T, M/T + L/T and comment it's 'powering ahead'

IG have key support at 7338.

[DiamondEcho]

I thought it worth mentioning that on http://chartstoday.com/ he goes through the usual indices, but additionally looks at the charts for the big movers from the FTSE-100 on an individual basis. That section begins at c4m30s in from the start. It's quite unusual for him to do such a drill-down, so maybe worth a look for anyone invested in those stocks.

[bulltraderpt]

Do you ever get the feeling you are chatting to yourself on this board Diamond ?

Shame there aren't more like you who contribute.

[DiamondEcho]

Errrr, yes I know what you mean. I just post things I have open in other tabs that have interested me, and I hope might interest others.
I suspect there might be more readers than contributors. TA has something of a 'whizz-kid' image, and I understand some of those newer to it might not wish to stick their heads above an imagined parapet. Hopefully more will be willing to add their views/links etc in due course.

Meanwhile FWIW
FXEmpire 'daily' for Monday
Initial Support at 7100
200-Day Exponential Moving Average at 7000, plus comment 'Even if we break 7100, I think this is as far as we go'
To the upside
7151 = first significant level, being the high from Wednesday, before it stabilised into the end of the week.
7250 as the next target.

Weekly view for next week
Buyers will enter if it sips to 7100. Significant support below at 7000. Dropped on news of election, stabilised at end of week.

[Jonetc15]

Errrr, yes I know what you mean. I just post things I have open in other tabs that have interested me, and I hope might interest others.
I suspect there might be more readers than contributors. TA has something of a 'whizz-kid' image, and I understand some of those newer to it might not wish to stick their heads above an imagined parapet. Hopefully more will be willing to add their views/links etc in due course.

That's me! Please just keep posting, bearing in mind that consolidations and/or indecisive markets lead to less participation in discussion. Look at the number of people reading this thread.

ATB

Jon

[BrummieDave]

Don't go all sulky, I always read new posts on here, and as soon as I think I understand enough to reply, I'll do so.

In the meantime, keep dazzling us with the insights!

[DiamondEcho]

I'm not sulky I er.... wish others posted more, whilst kinda also understanding why that might not be....
Anyway and meanwhile - onwards!

[DiamondEcho]

Wow, what a way to end the week, on both the high for the day and a record closing high at 7435.39. That's bullish, especially going into the weekend.
Here's the daily forecast for Monday from FXEmpire: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-407385
Weekly, for next week: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-407438
The latter is the first time I've seen him note the 8,000 level on his radar.

[DiamondEcho]

7500 has been breached, wow
I was just reading this and it reminded me of a phenomena I'd forgotten:

' Now that it’s [7500] been overcome, as per usual – old resistance becomes viewed as new support.'

I'd forgotten this site issued occasional TA on the FTSE. Perhaps another resource to check now and again when any significant moves are underway.
The article is also useful for broader context of how things look as of lunchtime today:
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical ... Rtech.html