The Lemon Fool

Just want to establish a thread for other posters on FTSE.
I will probably get a standard report and post two standard price charts ( P & F and Candle) together asp. I have rambled on about my present view on FTSE on another thread and I have to take son to Exhibition now.

OC

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscre ... l=FT%5EUKX

I am intruiged by the similarity in the two formations making up the current up trend in FTSE. According to Bulkowski they are two Ascending Broadening Wedges of bearish import. The key to the timing of the down move is a partial rise towards the end of the typical four month period taken for this pattern to form. So I would expect a break down quite soon with target the pink line (the low in the formation of the pattern).

Note also that the depth of the pattern is a 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Buying the dips is the activity behind the pattern.

OC

Interesting Close today. Clobbered by the resistance of the 3 highs in the 2007 top between 6751 and 6754. Doesn't look like resistance turning to support here. IG also looking for further downside.

OC

Good to meet up again, OC - especially after your very touching au revoir on TMF.

Just to confirm that your ADVFN link worked fine, and that I'm baffled by events and the markets. The FTSE seems to be becalmed - per http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=11 - and if there wasn't the posssibility of a Santa rally I'd say that upside looks limited, below the 50 dma for now.

Anyway, this is really a trial post/reply. Let's hope that others will join in the discussion.

Jon
P.S. I've just discovered that the 'Preview' of a post appears above the draft.

FXEmpire yesterday suggested there's longer-term support at 6600, resistance at 7000 and the index was sitting pretty much in the middle at c6800 at 'fair value'. Today they have the same L/T support/resistance levels and suggest the index is going to test 6800 to the upside.

Given solid sessions in both the US [record highs on the DJIA and with continued momentum we might be in for a rally into year-end] and Asia overnight the FTSE has opened straight through 6800, and convincingly so.

IGIndex on the short-term levels to watch had [yesterday] 6800, 6939 and 6997 as resistance on the upside.

Thursday, 1st December.

The price dipped below the two short term up trendlines (with just two touches each so provisional lines).

It closed bang on the highest high in the 2007 top so this may be resistance turning to support.

OC

FTSE has two short term uptrendlines: one is drawn through prominent lows in Jul and November and the second through the lows August and November. The first described in the second post on this topic is an ascending broadening formation which could just be a regular correction in the long term up trend with just short term bearish import. However, the second looks like a potential H & S topping pattern which could be more bearish. The right side looks weaker than the left and another rally to form more regular pattern is lekely

Today, the lines were crossed to the downside for a second time but the Close was bang on the support of the ABF and well above the possible H & S neckline.

OC

OC - here's how I see it: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=11. I know that it's simplistic, but the FTSE 100 is below the 50 dma and above the 200 dma. I realise that a 'Santa rally' (later this month rather than now) is a possibility, but I'm certainly not betting on it.

Jon

P.S. I should have said that (for new visitors, scrolling down the chart) the RSI has turned down and the MACD seems to be a bit weak.

Jon

However, the second looks like a potential H & S topping pattern which could be more bearish.

OC, to my eyes, it looks like an H and S forming. But maybe in a month it'll look like something else

Arb.

Arb,

I agree patterns can transform and on an index they take a long time to shape up! A H & S is essentially back to back triangles and a megaphone broadening formations can turn into a diamond.

The key will be when a potential pattern actually completes.

OC

Interesting. As I write (13.14 hrs) the FTSE 100 stands at 6870.58, just below the 50 dma (6892.18) - http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=11. A clear break above 6892 would be very significant, as would a retreat back down from a major resistance level (as at the close rather than intra-day).

6852 was seen this morning [by IG] as key resistance to the upside. As was taking it out ['persuasively'] and holding it into the close.

Looks like it's going to do it. FXEmpire were suggesting overnight that with a slightly more macro view this should point to continuation towards 7k possibly later this week.

Wow - it's just closed the main session at 6902.23, +1.81%.... just need to wait a little longer [delayed price feed!] to see if that holds above 6900 through the closing after-market/auction mechanism. Wouldn't that be sweet

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... 0!!2!20%5D

The P & F 60 box size chart has reversed into an up column. Still notgiven an upside target at this scaling.

Really, the Index is facing it's Waterloo! The 6950.6 high in the 2000 top is overhead resistance and the short term down trendline with three touches iin October.

This can still be seen a H & S topping pattern or a simple congestion area in the strong up trend.

6950 is also the top of the possible left hand shoulder in the possible H & S.

On the FTSE Stockchart above there is a link to Updata's daily report. I have listened to today's report and it is bullish for all the main stock markets except the Indian and Chinese. I think that it is assumed that FTSE will eventually follow suit although it has clearly lagged badly so far.

OC

I noticed in the chart 'Bullish price objective: 8700' Wouldn't that be nice. But what time-horizon is that?
Also I couldn't see a reference to the updata link you mentioned. It looks like it might be -> http://www.updata.co.uk/analytics.html but that appears to be $ubscription.

Meanwhile there is an interesting article on the 'Santa rally' from IG which I'll post a link to in a separate thread.

IG had their first support level today at 6894, that being the 50 day SMA. That was briefly pierced earlier [IIRC] but it's retraced back up.
To the upside the high from 9-Nov at 6940 is their first noted resistance level.

All eyes on the ECB meeting, will they extend QE as is expected... that's one to watch. Might that be enough to breach 6940... hmm.

FXEmpire have S @ 6800, finding it's way to 7k, then after several attempts breaking out higher.

DiamondEcho wrote:To the upside the high from 9-Nov at 6940 is their first noted resistance level. All eyes on the ECB meeting, will they extend QE as is expected... that's one to watch. Might that be enough to breach 6940... hmm.

So yesterday it failed to hold 6940 into the close, so that was twice it's failed to breach it. This morning it tried once again and got beaten back, and now it having another go at 6942.

I haven't read any of the TA yet for today but 6940, and holding above on the close is looking like goal no.1 to me right now [just IMHO/2c]. Breaching it 'persuasively' would be the cherry on the cake to end the week.

The battle of 6940 is on. It's been up or down through that level 10 times [my estimate from a small chart] in the first hour of trading... wow.

And it's still having a right old ding-dong with that level.
IGs TA is finally out for today [they seem to wait until 9.30-9.45am these days!]

...'FTSE 100 short on bearish sentiment
We are seeing 6940 continue to provide significant resistance on the FTSE, after having acted as a barrier for the past two sessions. A break above here heads towards 7000 and then 7134.
While bearish sentiment is hard to come by this week, a move lower would find support around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6896, and then down towards 6670.'...