Weather outlook for the FTSE

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 9th, 2016, 12:41 pm

This is where IG short term and the intra day resistances can be so misleading. The battle is not for 6940 but for 6950 where the resistance of the 2000 high is operating. The short term down trend from the last prominent high with three touches is slightly lower.

The high on the left shoulder is 6955 (potential H & S).

Still all other markets, especially in the US, are moving ahead strongly and breaking to new highs so I guess another strong open in the US together with the tendency of investors to buy something for the weekend will see a break. That willo pen the way to the 7000 levl and the resistance of the all time high which my memory says was 7120(?)

OC

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 9th, 2016, 2:10 pm

oldcharlie wrote:This is where IG short term and the intra day resistances can be so misleading. The battle is not for 6940 but for 6950 where the resistance of the 2000 high is operating. The short term down trend from the last prominent high with three touches is slightly lower. The high on the left shoulder is 6955 (potential H & S).
Still all other markets, especially in the US, are moving ahead strongly and breaking to new highs so I guess another strong open in the US together with the tendency of investors to buy something for the weekend will see a break. That willo pen the way to the 7000 levl and the resistance of the all time high which my memory says was 7120(?) OC


Hmmm, that's interesting. IGs T-A is daily, so I was/am imagining the near levels are of significance on that day. And outlying levels then come into focus. So for today they have:
UP
7134
7000
6940
DOWN
6896 [50DSMA]
6670

FXEmpire overnight, it's daily feels like a broader view, was, paraphrasing: 'bullish, towards 7k, and if I breaks that the run-up will continue'. Their weekly view issued over the weekend are also even broader, but equally thought-provoking [IMO]. The previous weekly was: 'Floor at 6600, Resistance at 7k', and they suggested [after last week's close] we're seeing 'resilient consolidation'.

FWIW I noted the FTSE records as intra-day 7129.83 on 11-Oct-16, and COB 7,103.98 on 27-APR-15 [E+EO!]

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 9th, 2016, 2:23 pm

ps agreed. Once again the FTSE is having it's Friday pm dithers. Unless NY opens strongly I expect xx40 and beyond will be lost for today.

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 9th, 2016, 10:37 pm

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... 0!!2!20%5D

Taking the P & F down a level to Box 30 and 1 reversal, gives a very clear picture of the potential H & S top.

FTSE closed just through the short tern down trendline and the high in the top 2000. It closed more or less equal to the high to the left of the last top (potential shoulder in H & S pattern).

It just managed to creep though the top of the cloud on the daily cloud chart. The weekly is already positive.

As these resistances are so important and the FTSE was not very convincing today, I think it needs a couple of days to be sure it has broken out.

There are three upside targets on the P & F 60 box size chart: 6960 (met this today); 7860 and 8640.

7000 has no obvious significance as a resistance but investors do play to round numbers. The all time high of 7120 is the big one. Closing through the highest old high means that FTSE can advance without further overhead resistance.

OC

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 9th, 2016, 11:11 pm

DE wrote
FWIW I noted the FTSE records as intra-day 7129.83 on 11-Oct-16, and COB 7,103.98 on 27-APR-15 [E+EO!]


My data gives the high on 04/10/2016 as 7121.93 and the highest high as on 27//04/2015 at 7122.74 If FTSE falls below the prominent low between these two tops in 2015 and 16, we might be looking at a double top pattern with a huge downside target.

All data sources do not agree but I think we can safely conclude that a close above 7130 will be a significant breakout.

OC

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 10th, 2016, 8:15 am

In brief, since I have the pages open, here are FXEmpire's forecasts for Monday/daily, and next week as a whole:

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-377243

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-377306

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 10th, 2016, 9:47 am

It's a brave technician buying on a pullback at this juncture!

I see this week as a relief rally based on the vote in the H & C which showed that our Constitution/democracy is still robust!

The only thing supporting a bullish analysis for FTSE is the amazing optimism in all the other world markets.

Provided it still pushes ahead, albeit slowly, towards 7000 and 7130 and a breakout, I would also be slightly bullish.

I suspect that the IG levels are just based on potentially hitting various moving averages which I think are are actually meaningless. If you can't look at the real data and spot support and resistance then they may be better than nothing. The 200dmas is a fair proxy for the main trendline.

OC

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 12th, 2016, 11:52 pm

I was right to be cautious on Friday and FTSE did not disappoint by pulling back firmly all day today.

Here is the candle chart:
http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscre ... l=FT%5EUKX

Unfortunately, the Advfn charting facility does not provide fibs above 100% so I cannot show that the last top in early 2016 was 161.8% of the last leg in the down trend ( October 2015 to February 2016).

I fancy the 50% retracement will provide support at around 6300. The minimum target for a H & S would be around 6250.

OC

FredBloggs
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby FredBloggs » December 13th, 2016, 4:25 am

I really don't understand most of this, but in laymans terms why does the FTSE always shy away from the 7000 level, briefly popping over it only to fall back? It's been flirting with 7000 since 1999 while other markets have gone sailing onwards and upwards?

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 13th, 2016, 11:12 pm

Fred,

Welcome to thie Board. You are right FTSE has tried and failed to advance above 7000 and the two major highs in 1999 and 2007. This what a technician calls a major resistance level. FTSE did break through 7000 in April 2015 but it failed to hold the break. There are a couple of tests that can be applied to confirm a breakout: trading clear above 7000 for several days and closing 3% above 7000 (ie 7210). FTSE kept dipping back and forth across the 7000 level and only advanced to 7103 on a closing basis (7122 high).

You will find some interest in the exact previous highest high and highest close in earlier exchanges on this topic. Major resistance once broken is likely to provide support in the future and a pull back to 7000 after any advance could be a good point to enter the Market.

I don't think we need to explain why FTSE fell back in 1999 and 2000 but the failure in 2015, when US markets were powering ahead is another matter altogether. "Being tied to an economic corpse"? Brexit? Italy? currency movements? Russian aggression?

Now the big question is will FTSE break 7000? Despite today's big move up, the RSI is now bearish divergent. I will try and do a chart of this divergence. FTSE may be late for the Party. The Fear/Greed Index is reading 88 out of 100 for extreme greed on US markets. Brexit is still creating great economic uncertainty here. It is battle Royal and I do not know how it will end only that it will end and I think that TA has the tools to interpret what is happening!

OC

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 13th, 2016, 11:25 pm

http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscre ... l=FT%5EUKX

At this scale it is hard to read today's divergence. The Index closed up on yesterday but the RSI did not advance to the same extent.

However, there was major bearish divergence at the April top and this has ben maintained. I am looking for a breakout on the RSI as well as the INdex itself.

OC

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 14th, 2016, 11:02 am

This might be something to keep an eye out for. TA from this morning re: the Dow today. It'd be nice to think an early hourly close above 19,956 on the Dow would give the FTSE the legs to break-out above 7k. But I suspect that for the FTSE, whatever any positives there are on the US open, London will want to see the FOMC announcement out at 7pm London time...

'Dow rally set to continue
The recent rise of the Dow Jones is nothing short of amazing, with new all-time highs being posted on a regular basis. The weakness we have seen overnight looks highly similar to Monday’s pullback, which ultimately ended in the trend resuming once more.
As long as we do not break below 19,747, then this bullish view continues to reign, with an hourly close above 19,956 providing a signal of the next leg higher. Of course, we have a certain FOMC meeting to contend with today, yet given the resilience shown by stocks in the face of Brexit, Donald Trump and Renzi, another rally wouldn’t be a total surprise.'

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/2016 ... -dow-35790

FredBloggs
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby FredBloggs » December 15th, 2016, 5:50 am

oldcharlie wrote:Fred,

Welcome to thie Board.

<snipped>

Now the big question is will FTSE break 7000? Despite today's big move up, the RSI is now bearish divergent. I will try and do a chart of this divergence. FTSE may be late for the Party. The Fear/Greed Index is reading 88 out of 100 for extreme greed on US markets. Brexit is still creating great economic uncertainty here. It is battle Royal and I do not know how it will end only that it will end and I think that TA has the tools to interpret what is happening!

OC

Thanks for the welcome. I'm just left scratching my head and wondering why the US markets just seem to keep going ever higher and the UK has gone nowhere in nearly 18 years. I suppose if I understood all this and had the answers, I'd not be asking about it here!

Fred.

oldcharlie
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 15th, 2016, 11:33 am

As a technician, I do not like the overall shape of the Index from its inception in 1984(?). It is presenting as "three mountains" of equal height. If it can clear the three peaks by 3% then well and good and it should run and run like the US markets.

Third attempts are usually the strongest. But has it already failed the test? Is it just gearing up as some athletes do moving forward and then backwards a ouple of times before launching. I think my Dad used to do that launching his latest model aircraft!

So potentially ultra bearish until it clears the olf highs by a decent margin.

OC

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 15th, 2016, 5:45 pm

Well crikey the FTSE gave it a go today, but gave up the 7k level in the closing minutes.

It'll be interesting to see how the US ends up on it's close, vs where it was [c19,925 on the Dow] when London closed. London was once again the laggard amongst the European majors.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 15th, 2016, 11:45 pm

It is looking good for the break. The RSI is not overbought and the line across the last three tops (shown in one of my posts above) was broken.

OC

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 16th, 2016, 11:25 am

Well it had a go earlier at breaking out, but seems to have hit the buffers just above 7020, which IG noted earlier was the '[intra-day] high from the beginning of the week'. It's triple-witching today in the US, and as it's year-end it is considered a big one; so I expect London is waiting until after the US open to decide whether it has the confidence to hold above 7k into the close.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby oldcharlie » December 17th, 2016, 12:14 pm

Muted reaction to Fed etc; I suppose we will have to wait to see whether the US markets are going to take a hit. FTSE is in no hurry to break 7000. It really needs a good 150/200 points to convince me.

OC

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 20th, 2016, 2:33 pm

Some drama this pm.
IG in their daily highlighted the importance of 7037, and how a Closed Hourly Candle above that would equate to 'another strong mover higher' on the forecast.

I'm following a small format chart intra-day but it rose through 7037 at c12.56pm but then lost it as c13.49pm grrr!
Its probably second-guessing itself before the US open, as it often does. But there is still time, so let's hope there's positivity from NYC on their open as there's still time to attain this candle this pm.

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

Postby DiamondEcho » December 20th, 2016, 3:24 pm

It looks like it just got the 'ClHrCa' above 7037 between c14.03hrs and 15.03 and counting. I can't be sure as I'm keeping my eye a 1-minute chart in the background. Good open from NY though, so.... [think positive!]

ps. And the DJIA needed +35 intra-day, plus a ClHrCa above that for a 'key bullish signal' [IG] and it's achieved that without bother.


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