Inflation

[Arborbridge]

I may go into this next inevitable Labour government holding no property assets or housing units for the first time since 1977. As the old saying goes, quit while you are ahead.

We hear this sort of stuff every time ther's a chance of a Labour government.

It's a regular joke that people get all up in the air, then nothing very much happens - and the harm inflicted by Tory governments somehow passes unnoticed.

[csearle]

Moderator Message:
Discussion about Afghanistan continues here. - Chris

[Urbandreamer]

I may go into this next inevitable Labour government holding no property assets or housing units for the first time since 1977. As the old saying goes, quit while you are ahead.

We hear this sort of stuff every time ther's a chance of a Labour government.

It's a regular joke that people get all up in the air, then nothing very much happens - and the harm inflicted by Tory governments somehow passes unnoticed.

To be fair, neither party or their supporters accept the harms and faults of their own part. Nor the successes of the opposing party.

Given that this thread is about inflation, we might consider how the purchasing power of the pound has changed since the "Tory" party has come to power. While we are at it we might reflect that Labour have not been out of power since the 70's, so clearly it has been possible for them to not hyper-inflate the currency in the past.

Personally I don't believe that the new government, whatever the party, can avoid it in the near term. The state simply has too many commitments and not enough income.

[1nvest]

The way the British system seems to work is that if you are a land owner, eventually you get compulsorily purchased (eg for HS2) , but it takes 10 years and a vast amount of lawyers fees to do it, so the costs rise steeply.

Is there a difference to the Chinese way in the final result?

This will be happening soon again with freeholders being expropriated.

After decades devoted to achieving financial security through property, I have more recently and sadly come to the conclusion that holding assets that cannot be moved is a risk, given the rising tide of envy-fuelled ideology in this country.

I may go into this next inevitable Labour government holding no property assets or housing units for the first time since 1977. As the old saying goes, quit while you are ahead.

What makes you think that liquid/movable assets are any more secure? The likes of FATCA and drive to have all banks reporting all transactions (on the pretense of otherwise being at risk of having aided money laundering) is nearing water-tight (which in itself is a indicator of intent).

[Lootman]

After decades devoted to achieving financial security through property, I have more recently and sadly come to the conclusion that holding assets that cannot be moved is a risk, given the rising tide of envy-fuelled ideology in this country.

I may go into this next inevitable Labour government holding no property assets or housing units for the first time since 1977. As the old saying goes, quit while you are ahead.

What makes you think that liquid/movable assets are any more secure? The likes of FATCA and drive to have all banks reporting all transactions (on the pretense of otherwise being at risk of having aided money laundering) is nearing water-tight (which in itself is a indicator of intent).

Yes, I was not suggesting that you can escape taxation anywhere. Unless maybe you buy your own island like Branson, or buy a yacht and be tax resident nowhere.

But you can certainly escape UK taxation, simply by being non-resident in the UK. Ideally that would mean moving all assets as well, and property is the one thing you cannot move. (Pensions as well, I guess).

[1nvest]

What makes you think that liquid/movable assets are any more secure? The likes of FATCA and drive to have all banks reporting all transactions (on the pretense of otherwise being at risk of having aided money laundering) is nearing water-tight (which in itself is a indicator of intent).

Yes, I was not suggesting that you can escape taxation anywhere. Unless maybe you buy your own island like Branson, or buy a yacht and be tax resident nowhere.

But you can certainly escape UK taxation, simply by being non-resident in the UK. Ideally that would mean moving all assets as well, and property is the one thing you cannot move. (Pensions as well, I guess).

Fair taxation is reasonable, unreasonable taxation is confiscation. I believe in Switzerland its written into constitution (requires a referendum) what the highest rate of taxation can be. Such policies serve as a temptation for inward investment and helps keep inflation down (print/spend and taxation are just another root driver of inflation).

[1nvest]

Yes, I was not suggesting that you can escape taxation anywhere. Unless maybe you buy your own island like Branson, or buy a yacht and be tax resident nowhere.

I've heard that being a perpetual asylum seeker is popular nowadays, free hotel/board and some spending money for a simple claim that you're frightened if you remained elsewhere that ABC might happen.

[Tedx]

BBC Headline

Baltimore bridge crash causes supply chain concerns

The suspension could have a "significant ripple effect on global supply chains", Marco Forgione, director general at The Institute of Export and International Trade, told the BBC.

No it won't. They'll have that debris cleared away quick smart - or at least enough if it to let the ships pass through. The people that use the bridge can go the long way round for now.

I wish they'd stop drumming up headlines.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68672373

[ursaminortaur]

Yes, I was not suggesting that you can escape taxation anywhere. Unless maybe you buy your own island like Branson, or buy a yacht and be tax resident nowhere.

I've heard that being a perpetual asylum seeker is popular nowadays, free hotel/board and some spending money for a simple claim that you're frightened if you remained elsewhere that ABC might happen.

Very basic accommodation possibly in a rundown hotel or possibly on a barge plus just under £50 a week to live on and forbidden to seek work - not exactly the good life.

https://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_advice/homelessness/people_seeking_asylum_housing_and_support/money_and_practical_help

Asylum support and housing
.
.
.
Money and practical help

You get £49.18 each week to help you with food, toiletries, clothes and travel.

You can get this money in asylum housing, or if you stay with friends or family.

You will not have to pay rent or other bills while you live in asylum housing.
.
.
.
If you get food where you live

You will not get any money if food is provided in initial accommodation when you first apply for asylum support.

If you qualify for full asylum support but are still living in a hotel while you wait to move somewhere more suitable, you get a weekly cash allowance of £8.86 for travel and clothes.

[chas49]

Moderator Message:
The above post (and the previous posts to which it is replying) are now significantly off-topic. The topic is about inflation. Discussion of asylum/immigration etc is more suited to the CAN board.

Please drop this off-topic discussion.

(chas49)

[Tedx]

City economists are increasingly convinced that inflation is falling more sharply than the Bank of England expects and could even hit zero within months.

That would open the path to much faster interest cuts than the market expects, a boost to family finances and to the Conservative Party ahead of a looming general election.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/inf ... 49566.html

However...:

The UK 10-year government bond yield continued its ascent above the 4.1% threshold, reaching its highest level since March 4th, as traders scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in light of the release of stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... bond-yield

[tjh290633]

City economists are increasingly convinced that inflation is falling more sharply than the Bank of England expects and could even hit zero within months.

That would open the path to much faster interest cuts than the market expects, a boost to family finances and to the Conservative Party ahead of a looming general election.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/inf ... 49566.html

However...:

The UK 10-year government bond yield continued its ascent above the 4.1% threshold, reaching its highest level since March 4th, as traders scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in light of the release of stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... bond-yield

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

[Charlottesquare]

City economists are increasingly convinced that inflation is falling more sharply than the Bank of England expects and could even hit zero within months.

That would open the path to much faster interest cuts than the market expects, a boost to family finances and to the Conservative Party ahead of a looming general election.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/inf ... 49566.html

However...:

The UK 10-year government bond yield continued its ascent above the 4.1% threshold, reaching its highest level since March 4th, as traders scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in light of the release of stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... bond-yield

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

Yes, if Mar and April 2024 are flat and we drop the early month 2023 figs from the v12 months we could be back below 2%CPI by end of this month.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... bruary2024

[flyer61]

It seems very likely over the next month or so inflation will drop sharply. However from where I am sitting it will then begin to rise again. Wage inflation is not dead. The bond market seems to have cottoned on to the fact inflation is likely going back up after a very brief sub 2% period.

Higher for longer.....

[Tedx]

On the other hand we havent felt the full effect of all those rate rises yet.

[dealtn]

City economists are increasingly convinced that inflation is falling more sharply than the Bank of England expects and could even hit zero within months.

That would open the path to much faster interest cuts than the market expects, a boost to family finances and to the Conservative Party ahead of a looming general election.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/inf ... 49566.html

However...:

The UK 10-year government bond yield continued its ascent above the 4.1% threshold, reaching its highest level since March 4th, as traders scaled back expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in light of the release of stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... bond-yield

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

Any one with the other, correct, half a brain will know that's not true. Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI. RPI and CPI have been far from static. They have been falling back towards their target.

[Nimrod103]

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

Any one with the other, correct, half a brain will know that's not true. Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI. RPI and CPI have been far from static. They have been falling back towards their target.

AIUI on a month by month basis (i.e. measured over 30/31 days rather than the preceeding 12 months) RPI / CPI figures have been not far off of zero for the last 6 months. It is only the 12 month figure which is moving inexorably down towards target. The billion dollar question is whether the 12 month figure will go below 2%, and if so how far.

[GoSeigen]

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

Any one with the other, correct, half a brain will know that's not true. Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI. RPI and CPI have been far from static. They have been falling back towards their target.

Objection m'lud, "the CPI" and "the RPI" are considered to be the indexes around this place: CPI=Consumer Prices Index, RPI=Retail Prices Index. Usually when people mean the inflation rate they refer to inflation. [EDIT: @Nimrod103 being the obvious exception LOL. He also has experienced huge inflation, a 64,000-dollar question having become a billion-dollar question in just 70 years...]

Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI.

If you say the RPI/CPI are not the same as the indexes then what do you consider them to be?


GS

[funduffer]

Anybody with half a brain can see that the RPI/CPI have been virtually static for the last 6 months or so. Ups and downs but the moving averages is essentially level.

TJH

Any one with the other, correct, half a brain will know that's not true. Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI. RPI and CPI have been far from static. They have been falling back towards their target.

The indices are falling because every month a high inflation month from a year ago is replaced by the most recent (low inflation) month. It is simple arithmetic, so Terry is absolutely correct. When March, April, May 2023 monthly data are replaced by March, April, May 2024 data, then barring some new crisis, annual inflation will drop below 2% and quite possibly very close to zero.

If this plays out as expected, it will be interesting to see what the BoE do if annual CPI is <1% and interest rates are still >5%!

FD

[GoSeigen]

Any one with the other, correct, half a brain will know that's not true. Unless of course you are referring to the relevant indices, which aren't the same as the RPI/CPI. RPI and CPI have been far from static. They have been falling back towards their target.

The indices are falling because every month a high inflation month from a year ago is replaced by the most recent (low inflation) month. It is simple arithmetic, [...]

Again, the indices are not falling, it is the inflation rate which is falling. The indices are flat, which is what TJH was saying. [In fact Feb CPI was the highest figure ever at 132.3]

GS