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How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 7:51 pm
by scotview
There is a lot going on in the UK currently and a general election is brewing.
I would be obliged if you could indicate your view on whither the UK economy, in say the next 5 years.
Thanks in advance.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 8:28 pm
by monabri
Somewhere between option 2 and 3.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 8:41 pm
by tjh290633
Assuming that we get a Labour Government, none of them have ever left the economy in a better state than when they took office. I think that the level outcome is the best we can hope for.
TJH
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 9:26 pm
by JohnB
Depends how quickly Starmer can get back into the EU and sanity. He's gathering ever more control, so fingers crossed
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 9:28 pm
by Lootman
JohnB wrote:Depends how quickly Starmer can get back into the EU and sanity. He's gathering ever more control, so fingers crossed
I would love to see a quote from you where Starmer says that he has any time for Rejoiners. So far he has been 100% firm on the matter being closed.
But I guess we all believe what we want to believe.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 10:31 pm
by Dod101
It is a pointless question and an unanswerable one at that unless we make some assumptions about what sort of government we are going to get after the General Election. Assuming the same characters are in charge, I can see no reason for the economy to other than flatline over the next five years with a bias towards a modest uplift if the Conservatives retain some influence, ie either a hung parliament or a majority for them.
Dod
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 11:01 pm
by mc2fool
tjh290633 wrote:Assuming that we get a Labour Government, none of them have ever left the economy in a better state than when they took office. I think that the level outcome is the best we can hope for.
TJH
GDP per capita (real 2019 £s)
1997 £25,230
2010 £29,893 +18.5%
2022 £32,904 +10.0%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 7th, 2023, 11:42 pm
by Dod101
For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Dod
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 1:23 am
by GoSeigen
mc2fool wrote:tjh290633 wrote:Assuming that we get a Labour Government, none of them have ever left the economy in a better state than when they took office. I think that the level outcome is the best we can hope for.
TJH
GDP per capita (real 2019 £s)
1997 £25,230
2010 £29,893 +18.5%
2022 £32,904 +10.0%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/970672/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk/
Thanks for demonstrating so clearly the utter nonsense of that statement.
In the above period 2997 to date there were at least seven general elections, so seven governments IIRC.
GS
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 2:25 am
by Mike4
Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Dod
Would not a sharply rising population explain that?
A bit like the sharply rising production of effluent?
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 3:07 am
by servodude
Mike4 wrote:Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Dod
Would not a sharply rising population explain that?
A bit like the sharply rising production of effluent?
The graphs earlier were GDP per capita and the trend was generally up-ish - so I don't think it's as easy as "more folk == less good"
Dod's observation probably suggests that GDP (including per capita) is rather disconnected from personal experiences.. or that there might be a "second order" compnent to how we perceive it?
In much the same way as we feel acceleration rather than speed perhaps we notice things increasing more slowly than they were rather than the degree by which they are increasing?
That could also explain why inflation only being 5% rather than 10% feels to some like there has been "money put in their pocket"?
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 7:51 am
by Dod101
Mike4 wrote:Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Dod
Would not a sharply rising population explain that?
A bit like the sharply rising production of effluent?
But I was thinking of GDP per capita, so not quite.
Dod
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:06 am
by Dod101
servodude wrote:Mike4 wrote:
Would not a sharply rising population explain that?
A bit like the sharply rising production of effluent?
The graphs earlier were GDP per capita and the trend was generally up-ish - so I don't think it's as easy as "more folk == less good"
Dod's observation probably suggests that GDP (including per capita) is rather disconnected from personal experiences.. or that there might be a "second order" compnent to how we perceive it?
In much the same way as we feel acceleration rather than speed perhaps we notice things increasing more slowly than they were rather than the degree by which they are increasing?
That could also explain why inflation only being 5% rather than 10% feels to some like there has been "money put in their pocket"?
My personal experience is I guess related to my experience with the stock market where capital values have either been static or have fallen. On the income side, I do not scrimp to save and am probably as well off as I ever have been so despite my personal feelings...........
And despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth I have two young adult granddaughters (well five actually but two that I know quite well) and they seem to have no difficulty in having holidays in the sun three times a year or more, paid for by themselves, together with the latest mobile phones and so on. These are surely signs that despite all we hear on the news, GDP is certainly not falling.
Goodness knows what a Labour Government would actually do should they get power within the next year or so and so it is more than usually difficult to try to forecast where the economy might be heading. Usually though GDP keeps rising despite what a government does although Labour can usually manage to muck it up (even more than the Conservatives, one might almost say)
Dod
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:21 am
by mc2fool
Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Well, a 10% increase in GDP per capita over 12 years might seem shallow enough not to be noticed year on year, and of course it's an average, it's not going to be distributed equally. And there have been some living cost increases in recent years that might make any increased income feel as if it's just disappeared.
And when it comes to feeling better off, money isn't everything. A (small) increase in GDP per capita doesn't help the feeling if your kids' schools are crumbling, you're on a loooong NHS waiting list, your trains are always late/overcrowded/cancelled, etc, etc, etc.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:26 am
by Nimrod103
Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Dod
I feel the same way, and I presume this is because GDP per capita is pre-tax, while during the periods in question tax rates have risen sharply, particularly for the productive segment of the workforce.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:33 am
by Lootman
Nimrod103 wrote:Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
I feel the same way, and I presume this is because GDP per capita is pre-tax, while during the periods in question tax rates have risen sharply, particularly for the productive segment of the workforce.
I actually do feel better off than 5/10 years ago. But a big part of that might be that investment income is not as punitively taxed as employment income. Insofar as that may change with Labour, then perhaps the only societal group who are making gains (broadly, TLF-type people) might also feel the pinch.
So yes, taxes are an issue. And the huge cost of welfare and "free stuff" could make the rich poorer whilst not ultimately doing much for the poor.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:34 am
by Dod101
mc2fool wrote:Dod101 wrote:For reasons I do not really understand, the economy seems generally to keep rising (as measured by GDP) and yet most of us do not feel any better off than we were say 5/10 years ago. Are our expectations too high?
Well, a 10% increase in GDP per capita over 12 years might seem shallow enough not to be noticed year on year, and of course it's an average, it's not going to be distributed equally. And there have been some living cost increases in recent years that might make any increased income feel as if it's just disappeared.
And when it comes to feeling better off, money isn't everything. A (small) increase in GDP per capita doesn't help the feeling if your kids' schools are crumbling, you're on a loooong NHS waiting list, your trains are always late/overcrowded/cancelled, etc, etc, etc.
Yes, none of the problems you mention affect me in any way but as I was writing, I almost suggested that we might be better off not hearing the news and just getting on with out lives.
Dod
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:35 am
by scrumpyjack
The GDP per capita are fairly meaningless as they are not in real terms and anyway in terms of comparing with which party was in power they need to be offset by at least a couple of years. If the country is left in a catastrophic state, the incoming government will need a year or two to turn things round. Wasn't Liam Byrne who left a note for the incoming Conservative chancellor admitting things were bankrupt!
This country is basically kept afloat by foreigners money so the key factor will be foreign confidence or lack of it. We need lots of billionaire non doms spending in London like there's no tomorrow! Oh dear, Labour is planning to throw them out
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:37 am
by vand
It won't be great, but I don't think it'll be a disaster that a lot of people think. As a contrarian, my view is the pervasive pessimism right now after 2 years of falling real household income is a sign that things are going to be better than most people expect.
Re: How do you think the UK economy will perform over the next 5 years ?
Posted: September 8th, 2023, 8:39 am
by mc2fool
scrumpyjack wrote:The GDP per capita are fairly meaningless as they are not in real terms ...
mc2fool wrote:GDP per capita (real 2019 £s)