Sorry Ody but your forecasts always lack data. They are just opinions without any facts to justify them.
As you suggested above , “In investing one looks ahead, not backwards”. However, to gain success from looking ahead it’s important to be sure that the current facts on which you base your assessment are accurate.
Is it time to review your information sources to help you make better forecasts? You regularly predict the demise of BMW and every year the company surprises by growing stronger.
in November 2022 you made one of your regular predictions about the future of legacy manufacturers especially BMW. You may remember I suggested we review your prediction in a year or so. See post:
viewtopic.php?p=547841&sid=473fe89d57d9ef85f244760c4c6cbc7e#p547841So, whilst Tesla is price cutting and firing layers of staff it’s a good time to again review BMW’s progress in premium segments..
Superior engineering, superior marketing, superior financial control all have contributed to their success at developing a wide range of sought-after premium cars from Minis to Rolls Royces.
As discussed in the past, they set out to develop platforms which accommodate ICE, PHEV and BEV variations and this has enabled them to sell cars at superb margins throughout a range of economic conditions. Customer demand has been strong in China, USA and Europe, so BMW are growing their labour force and also benefiting from the improved profitability which this strategy achieves. The result of their strategy over the last three years has been so much more successful than Tesla.
You need to indicate how this is going to change in the future.
Rather than adopt a product led strategy like Tesla concentrating on just two models, they have listened to customers and developed a range of cars, including 15 BEVs which meet the needs of consumers.
The strength of their balance sheet has allowed them to make large investments in Europe, USA and China. As well as continuing to be one of the biggest auto exporters from the USA, they have produced six million cars in China, one million of them in the last 15 months.
The CEO’s presentation on 15 May included reflections on the company’s recent successes and future plans. Worth a read!
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/a ... -in-munich"During the financial year, we had revised our guidance upwards. At year-end we met all our targets. We posted solid growth in sales, reaching a new all-time high of more than 2.55 million vehicles. In fact, we are the only German OEM to have regained our pre-pandemic level.
Our sales figures confirm this: BMW is maintaining its leading position in the global premium segment. Our strongest growth last year came from the upper premium and luxury class, as well as our all-electric models,
We are aligning our strategic planning accordingly – and enabling our architectures. In this way, we can respond quickly at all times. More than 15 BEV models will be available this year across all BMW Group brands.”
So Ody, “In investing one looks ahead, not backwards” as you so rightly suggested above - what are your predictions for BMW for the next year?
Hint: Their balance sheet is stronger than ever, so I wouldn’t worry about that.
Hopefully it will be fun to review the accuracy of your forecast in 2025. BMW represent a serious challenge to Tesla, creaming off the more profitable areas of the BEV market and as a major exporter from their USA manufacturing operations and not being dependent on Chinese batteries they are less likely to be affected by US restrictions.
regards
Howard