The Lemon Fool

Googling “China launches cryptocurrency” gets old news about plans to do so. Nothing fresh.
Using the link to YuanPay (on the “Forbes” page”) takes you to BTCapital. Check that out at scamwatcher.org.

Thanks for all the input and warnings.

I was originally informed of this by an advert on the Lemon.

Caveat Emptor as usual.

Regards,

GrahamPlatt wrote:Googling “China launches cryptocurrency” gets old news about plans to do so. Nothing fresh.
Using the link to YuanPay (on the “Forbes” page”) takes you to BTCapital. Check that out at scamwatcher.org.

Whereas it's always likely there are scams around, there are also reports such as https://news.bitcoin.com/major-chinese- ... cy-wallet/ from just four days ago.

Unless bitcoin.com is a scam site?

UncleEbenezer wrote:

GrahamPlatt wrote:Googling “China launches cryptocurrency” gets old news about plans to do so. Nothing fresh.
Using the link to YuanPay (on the “Forbes” page”) takes you to BTCapital. Check that out at scamwatcher.org.

Whereas it's always likely there are scams around, there are also reports such as https://news.bitcoin.com/major-chinese- ... cy-wallet/ from just four days ago.

Unless bitcoin.com is a scam site?

Interesting, thanks for the link.

It would be something if a communist state was to switch to a block chain currency when all the proponents of crypto currencies trumpet how they are the next step in capitalism.

Regards,

UncleEbenezer wrote:

GrahamPlatt wrote:Googling “China launches cryptocurrency” gets old news about plans to do so. Nothing fresh.
Using the link to YuanPay (on the “Forbes” page”) takes you to BTCapital. Check that out at scamwatcher.org.

Whereas it's always likely there are scams around, there are also reports such as https://news.bitcoin.com/major-chinese- ... cy-wallet/ from just four days ago.

Unless bitcoin.com is a scam site?

You presumably didn’t get to click on the link. Your bitcoin.com link only reports a bank providing a “digital wallet” containing Renminbis, not a crypto currency.

Good to hear taxes are being chased for crypto trading.

Here is the future :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54261382

China going full steam ahead with crypto to overpower the USD and Facebook,s crypto.

Digital Rubble?:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14093145/ ... rce=pushly

If this happens, it may cause troubles for the governments who have become skilled in the art of printing money, or will a digital rubble not be limited in size like bitcoin is and simply allow money printing to become digital?

Regards,

No headquarters for Coinbase which is now seen as a fully remote company and now about to list on US markets:

https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status ... 44649?s=20

Files for direct listing:

https://twitter.com/business/status/136 ... 09286?s=20

Regards,

There is a lot of speculative stuff on the net regarding crypto currencies which exist between the rat poison view of Charlie Munger and the bullish this will be how money is going forwards.

Let us see if we can at least set some of the parameter for bitcoin.

This article from Investopedia has lots of useful stuff but needs updating as it is now 1 year old:

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-m ... y-bitcoin/

In the article bit coin was valued at $8790, today bit coin is valued at $47,748, an increase of 5.4x.

Scaling the numbers from the article then gives us

value of all bitcoins 5.4x160.4 = $871.3 billion, or about 2% of all money on the planet.

Value of bit coin compared to gold, about 8.6%.

These numbers suggest to me that bitcoin is rapidly becoming a major currency, if it was to go up x10 from here it would be 20% of all money.

Mining is now done with dedicated hardware. The days when you could use a graphical processor to mine bitcoin are over. Now mining is done with ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). In principle one could use any remote device with ASIC to mine coin. So for example if you were to attach a ASIC to a Tesla one could use the Tesla’s internet connectivity and the ASIC to mine bitcoin but you will have to have a large electricity supply and at a good rate, such as in a renewable rich region, as happens in Iceland, to get the power at a rate that will enable profitable mining with out environmental degradation.

As of yet I can find no auto manufacturer who is interested in putting a mining application into a Battery car, however, that can change.

There are many statements about bitcoin being only of use to criminal wanting to launder money, while other sources say that the trackable nature of bit coin is a blessing for law enforcement over legacy Fiat money.

Who might use Bitcoin? There seems to be a bit of a consensus that it is most appropriate for large sums of $1 million and up and for people who fear that their fiat money will be debased by central bank printing. This argument is somewhat like the argument for gold, but bitcoin is far more convenient.

The issues between bitcoin and central banks is another area where there is extensive polarisation. One camp argues that due to Crypto currencies the rate the central bank will have to offer in bond auctions will increase to compensate between the dilution of fiat currencies to the none-dilution of crypto. There are also many other camps arguing many other things.

It is always difficult to know if this is a fad or something that will define the financial markets going forwards.

As things now are I am minded to think it will become more and more important, but I could be completely wrong!

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Let us see if we can at least set some of the parameter for bitcoin.
[...]
In the article bit coin was valued at $8790, today bit coin is valued at $47,748, an increase of 5.4x.
[...]
These numbers suggest to me that bitcoin is rapidly becoming a major currency, if it was to go up x10 from here it would be 20% of all money.

No, it suggests it has been a good speculative investment over that time period.
A currency is something people use to buy things, which doesn't describe Bitcoin at the moment.
Stocks aren't a currency, bonds aren't a currency, property isn't a currency.

Indeed, the idea of Bitcoin as a to-the-moon investment and Bitcoin as a currency are inherently contradictory.
If you think Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in value, then why on earth would you use it to buy anything?

murraypaul wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:Let us see if we can at least set some of the parameter for bitcoin.
[...]
In the article bit coin was valued at $8790, today bit coin is valued at $47,748, an increase of 5.4x.
[...]
These numbers suggest to me that bitcoin is rapidly becoming a major currency, if it was to go up x10 from here it would be 20% of all money.

No, it suggests it has been a good speculative investment over that time period.
A currency is something people use to buy things, which doesn't describe Bitcoin at the moment.
Stocks aren't a currency, bonds aren't a currency, property isn't a currency.

Indeed, the idea of Bitcoin as a to-the-moon investment and Bitcoin as a currency are inherently contradictory.
If you think Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in value, then why on earth would you use it to buy anything?

For someone who has a large bitcoin holding bought at more lower levels than today, the reason they may decide to spend some is to take some of the bitcoin profits off the table.

There are currently limited merchants who will take bitcoin, but the number is increasing, spurred on by Tesla's decision to take Bitcoin as a payment method.

There are clear conflicts between selling if you believe bit coin is going higher rather than just keeping hold. However, if the belief that bitcoin is going higher proves wrong then by selling now one is locking in some profit and potentially making it possible to buy back the bitcoin if there is more volatility and the price falls. This kind of dilemma is common with high growth rate equity, where one believes the price is going up, but the size of the investment is beginning to dominate ones portfolio. In generally most investors will re-balance their portfolio if one asset starts to become dominant. For bitcoin this re-balancing could involve buying something with bit coin, or selling to raise fiat currency.

Regards,

murraypaul wrote:If you think Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in value, then why on earth would you use it to buy anything?

Bit like cash in the early 30s. Same in 2008, but QE to the rescue. I sincerely hope Bitcoin does not become currency as I work in manufacturing, so I'm not a big fan of deflationary spirals.

NotSure wrote:

murraypaul wrote:If you think Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in value, then why on earth would you use it to buy anything?

Bit like cash in the early 30s. Same in 2008, but QE to the rescue. I sincerely hope Bitcoin does not become currency as I work in manufacturing, so I'm not a big fan of deflationary spirals.

I am not sure I follow the logic here.

If you fear deflation, should you not fear Fiat currencies where the central banks can print as much as they like, potentially undermining the currency.

One can then enter a scenario where there are still too many goods and the amount of money for each sale becomes worth less as the currency is undermined with too much central bank printing.

Indeed if you fear deflation would you not prefer Bitcoin as the central banks have no way to increase the supply of bitcoin which has a fixed amount?

Clearly one can look at excess money printing as either inflationary if there are not enough goods to buy, or deflationary if there are too many goods to buy.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

murraypaul wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:Let us see if we can at least set some of the parameter for bitcoin.
[...]
In the article bit coin was valued at $8790, today bit coin is valued at $47,748, an increase of 5.4x.
[...]
These numbers suggest to me that bitcoin is rapidly becoming a major currency, if it was to go up x10 from here it would be 20% of all money.

No, it suggests it has been a good speculative investment over that time period.
A currency is something people use to buy things, which doesn't describe Bitcoin at the moment.
Stocks aren't a currency, bonds aren't a currency, property isn't a currency.

Indeed, the idea of Bitcoin as a to-the-moon investment and Bitcoin as a currency are inherently contradictory.
If you think Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in value, then why on earth would you use it to buy anything?

For someone who has a large bitcoin holding bought at more lower levels than today, the reason they may decide to spend some is to take some of the bitcoin profits off the table.

That is selling an investment because of your view of it as an investment, not using it as a currency.

This kind of dilemma is common with high growth rate equity

Exactly my point. Bitcoin acts like a speculative investment asset, not a currency.
And the more successful it is as a speculative investment, the less useful it is as a currency.

odysseus2000 wrote:I am not sure I follow the logic here.

If you fear deflation, should you not fear Fiat currencies where the central banks can print as much as they like, potentially undermining the currency.

No, that causes inflation, where you think that money you hold now will be worth less in the future, so you might as well spend it rather than save it. (Sounds like fiat currencies?)
Deflation is the opposite, where you think that money you hold now will be worth more in the future, so you save it rather than spend it. (Sounds like Bitcoin?)

Murray Paul No, that causes inflation, where you think that money you hold now will be worth less in the future, so you might as well spend it rather than save it. (Sounds like fiat currencies?)
Deflation is the opposite, where you think that money you hold now will be worth more in the future, so you save it rather than spend it. (Sounds like Bitcoin?)

It depends on if there are shortages as usually happens in wars. Then folk bid up and bid up prices if there is ample Fiat currency printing. However, if there are no shortages it doesn't matter if there is a lot of Fiat currency printing, as there are enough goods to prevent price rises.

One can argue that due to Chinese manufacturing and massive supply of goods, there has been no inflation, despite lots of Fiat printing.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:
One can argue that due to Chinese manufacturing and massive supply of goods, there has been no inflation, despite lots of Fiat printing.

Regards,

Only if you want to be on the wrong side of the argument, or limit your basket of goods to those that fit your argument.

dealtn wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
One can argue that due to Chinese manufacturing and massive supply of goods, there has been no inflation, despite lots of Fiat printing.

Regards,

Only if you want to be on the wrong side of the argument, or limit your basket of goods to those that fit your argument.

Nothing like limiting ones basket so as to fit ones arguments.

Can you put forward other arguments as to why with all the Fiat currency printing we have not seen the sort of inflation that we saw in e.g. the 70's?

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

dealtn wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
One can argue that due to Chinese manufacturing and massive supply of goods, there has been no inflation, despite lots of Fiat printing.

Regards,

Only if you want to be on the wrong side of the argument, or limit your basket of goods to those that fit your argument.

Nothing like limiting ones basket so as to fit ones arguments.

Can you put forward other arguments as to why with all the Fiat currency printing we have not seen the sort of inflation that we saw in e.g. the 70's?

Regards,

So your claim has changed from "there has been no inflation" to "we have not seen the sort of inflation we saw in e.g,. the 70's" and you are asking me to argue why that isn't so?

I think it would be easier for you to just admit you were wrong frankly.