Dod101 wrote:I still wonder what this guy is on?
Dod
Two stocks and an interminable, unreadable ramble.
To be parked in a layby.
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Dod101 wrote:I still wonder what this guy is on?
Dod
Dod101 wrote:
I still wonder what this guy is on?
Pastcaring wrote:A quick update.
Dod I will point out again how important honesty is in investing .Something you and the vast majority of people are just not familiar with.Thinking is probably alongside that,no chance they will ever think .
Using this important principle of honesty how dumb and incompetent would you have to be to deny a two stock portfolio would be 2 stocks.The echo chamber on fantasy world is a great source of amusement for me,a wonderful example of the infinite stupidity of the human race..
As pointed out right at the start of how to make a million at low cost.Given the choice between compounding money and compounding stupidity,the herd will always choose to compound stupidity They detest facts and reality
Sooo,facts and reality,.
I know now that CBA has reached the 30 year milestone,the letter to shareholders enclosed with my DRP statement.I was never sure if it was a 1990. 91 or 92 start date. CommSec shareholder update into Google should take you there.A 2 page letter.
Tell me Dod,on your fantasy world how many pages would a 2 page letter have?
I digress,the letter tells you that the minimum purchase was 400 shares at a cost of $2160.Find out for yourself what that compounds to.The franking credit probably would not apply to the UK ,I think the UK had a similar system to avoid double taxation of dividends but I'm not sure.Who could imaging doing nothing for 30 years,apart from laughing at the herd of course Who could believe that compounding takes time.
The Wesfarmers compounding of course worked out at $1000 in 1984 grew to i$669K if I remember correctly.Of course thanks to whatever his name was ( something guess ?) we know how this happens,his experience of investing and what he was taught at University.Confirmation bias,survivorship bias and just pure luck,that's the secret.How the hell anybody can repeat that rubbish every day for an entire lifetime is beyond me The fools that refuse to see their own folly..
Spare a $guv,entire lifetime guv,every day I had no luck at all guv.You"re rich,you obviously been very lucky every day,spare a $ guv.
CryptoPlankton wrote:Dod101 wrote:Whatever anyone thinks of the OP's style of writing the fact is that McQuarrie and no doubt CBA have a very good long term record, as indeed do the Canadian banks. It is our banks and in fact most of the European banks that are so awful.
I doubt that anyone but the OP that would hold a mere 2 stock portfolio and especially two banks, however good they may be.
Dod
Although the OP is only half as reckless (2 shares instead of one), it is very reminiscent of reading the supremely confident contributions of jimsusan on the old Motley Fool boards. (The obvious difference being the lack of hubris in jimsusan's engaging and eloquent writing, which meant you couldn't help feeling a little sympathy for him when it finally all came crashing down...)
Pastcaring wrote:The year ends Evidently it was a bit of bloodbath,there wasn't enough noise to wake me up, I'll have to pay attention for the next 6 months and see what I can pick up.at bargain prices.
Your wealth increased slightly on the road to a million.
The shareholding in CBA increased to 1199 shares at $90.70 each.The next shares arrive in September and March 2023.
Obviously the shareholding in MQG also increased to 1167 shares at $164.24 each.
Prices at 1july 2022.
Rough mental arithmetic brings that to $300,500,same rough arithmetic gives an increase of 3% for the year,probably closer to 2.9%,work it out for yourselves.
I don't have the letter from CBA to hand so from memory $2000 grew to $220,000.Doing nothing for 30 years is a difficult job,but somebody has to do it.The letter also shows how my rough compounding all those years ago was reasonably correct on the number of shares after 30 years,and nowhere near on the price of the shares.
The number of shares was slightly lower,the share price was far higher.
Who could imagine investing is as easy as getting it roughly right .
The next shares in MQG arrive on Monday 4 July .You get 23 ,taking the share holding in MQG to 1190 for the next dividend in December,and a further increase in the shareholding.
Let's crack on compounding that stupidity shall we.,the echo chamber calls.You can't do that,how come everybody else isn't doing that.
For CBA 31 years of increasing profits and obviously the share price increasing.They have the odd stumble here and there,and will continue to have the odd stumble in the future.
The only conclusion that the herd can draw from all the easily obtainable information is that they will go bust,it is too risky,Jimsusan bought shares in Lloyyds bank,how much more proof could be needed.
The stupidity of the human race is infinite. They are rabid and fanatical in their determination to believe in the delusions they have created for themselves.Facts and reality must be avoided.
See how we go in the coming year shall we,I think it will be interesting,I wonder what I can pick up cheap.Then again,being lazy I wonder if I'll even bother looking at prices.
Dod101 wrote:I wonder if he has forgotten that he updated us only a few days ago? Maybe he sprays these missives around the world and has forgotten that he has already given us the benefit of his wisdom for this quarter?
Sadly there is nothing new in any of it.
Dod
Dod101 wrote:I wonder if he has forgotten that he updated us only a few days ago? Maybe he sprays these missives around the world and has forgotten that he has already given us the benefit of his wisdom for this quarter?
Sadly there is nothing new in any of it.
Itsallaguess wrote:Dod101 wrote:
I still wonder what this guy is on?
At least he's consistent, I'll give him that.
He consistently creates a straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks time in the market is advantageous, where in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point.
He also consistently creates another straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks compounding-returns can be helpful in delivering good long-term investment outcomes, where again, in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point either.
He also consistently uses both of the above straw-man arguments to mask the only real concern that's regularly raised with him, and that's around the risk of doing all of the above 'good things' whilst holding only a two-stock portfolio...
He consistently ignores the risk of doing that, and he consistently takes the view that because there's never been any poor outcomes from holding his two-stock portfolio, that therefore means there never will be...
He consistently ignores the fact that 'risk' isn't just about the chances of something that he might consider to be unlikely actually *happening*, but it's also about the *potential impact* of it happening, if it actually does...
Many people might get away with it over a lifetime of investment, of course, but boy, what a shock it must be for those that wake up one morning and find out that they've not...
minnow wrote:It's very entertaining
I was mildly curious about the claims being made about CBA so I thought I'd do a little sleuthing. To help put the performance numbers into context, this page shows the annual returns for the Australian "all ordinaries accumulation" index going back to 1900 (it assumes that all divis are reinvested with no tax deducted) : https://topforeignstocks.com/wp-content ... c-2022.pdf. An arithmetic average of 13.2% (nominal) since 1900, that's not too shabby ! Compounding the index returns over the past 30 years gave 9.5% CAGR.
Doing the same for CBA gave 12% CAGR. At first glance CBA seems to be the clear winner. But the catch is that those returns come with significantly increased risk (measured by price volatility). The standard deviation of CBA's returns is 28%, versus only 16% for the index. To earn CBA's returns you had to endure some pretty wild price swings.
Not saying that CBA hasn't been a very good investment - it has. But seen through the lens of risk/return, I reckon that you'd have been better off buying the AOA index (perhaps with a little leverage) because you'd then be "paying" less risk for point unit of return. Plus of course, there'd be far less chance of getting Enron'd or Evraz'd (which is perhaps the more serious risk here)
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