The Lemon Fool

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 9:33 am**

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Thanks Ian.

They held the q4 dividend in Euros. I had hoped for even a 1% token increase but (I'll check later) I think the Sterling amount for the quarter is the highest I will have received to date. It is clear that there are more pricing actions to come through and only slight margin recovery in 2023.

Best wishes

Mark.

It is the highest quarterly amount (£) that I have had since I bought in Jan 2011.

Taking the year as a whole, 2020-2021 was slightly better (£).

So much is down to exchange rates. When the euro was launched in 1999, the rate was 1.42 to the £. It is now 1.13.

Strangely enough, I notice that press articles about the 'inevitable' collapse of the euro aren't too common these days.

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 9:44 am**

I am always surprised that most people concentrate on the dividend even on the non HYP Board. The health of the underlying business (which is of course supporting the ability to pay the dividend) is so very much more important. Any growth has come from price increases. Volume is down a bit but at least the figure's show considerable loyalty to Unilever's brands. Margin's for the Company are down and the net result is a slight profit improvement, but I think well below the rate of inflation. Not very inspiring but I suppose not bad in the circumstances.

Dod

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 9:53 am**

Dod101 wrote:I am always surprised that most people concentrate on the dividend even on the non HYP Board. The health of the underlying business (which is of course supporting the ability to pay the dividend) is so very much more important. Any growth has come from price increases. Volume is down a bit but at least the figure's show considerable loyalty to Unilever's brands. Margin's for the Company are down and the net result is a slight profit improvement, but I think well below the rate of inflation. Not very inspiring but I suppose not bad in the circumstances.

Dod

I think you mentioned they've increased prices: that's at least something to hang on to 8-)

Some of our companies are finding it difficult to do that.

Arb.

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 10:57 am**

Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am always surprised that most people concentrate on the dividend even on the non HYP Board. The health of the underlying business (which is of course supporting the ability to pay the dividend) is so very much more important. Any growth has come from price increases. Volume is down a bit but at least the figure's show considerable loyalty to Unilever's brands. Margin's for the Company are down and the net result is a slight profit improvement, but I think well below the rate of inflation. Not very inspiring but I suppose not bad in the circumstances.

Dod

I think you mentioned they've increased prices: that's at least something to hang on to Some of our companies are finding it difficult to do that.

Arb.

Indeed. The RNS tells us that they had price growth of 11.3% and a volume decline of 2.1%. Both numbers are surely quite impressive. They have a lot of brand loyalty if they can push through price increases of more than inflation and yet lose only 2.1% in volumes. Still, margins are down.

Dod

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 11:08 am**

Pricing power is important. Unilever’s future cash flows are in large part dependent on its ability to raise prices and volumes over time.

Best wishes

Mark.

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 11:15 am**

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Pricing power is important. Unilever’s future cash flows are in large part dependent on its ability to raise prices and volumes over time.

Best wishes

Mark.

Yes it is an illustration of Warren Buffet's famous 'moat'

Dod

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 1:22 pm**

Dod101 wrote:I am always surprised that most people concentrate on the dividend even on the non HYP Board. The health of the underlying business (which is of course supporting the ability to pay the dividend) is so very much more important. Any growth has come from price increases. Volume is down a bit but at least the figure's show considerable loyalty to Unilever's brands. Margin's for the Company are down and the net result is a slight profit improvement, but I think well below the rate of inflation. Not very inspiring but I suppose not bad in the circumstances.

Dod

But you were expressing disappointment re the AZN dividend, Dod. AZN's s.p. is up 135.89% over past 5 yrs and up 33.57% in past year, compared with 8.43% and 7.71% for ULVR. While changed circumstances mean I am more interested in dividends than I used to be, I still go for total return and whereas AZN has been brilliant for me, ULVR has been a big disappointment. It remains to be seen how they will compare in the future and I shall continue to hold both in the hope that ULVR will improve. Since a large slice of my income is now an annuity whose rate was fixed over 20 yrs ago, from a shopper's p.o.v. I'm not too happy about the inflationary effect of huge price rises, however, and I was really shocked by the current price of their tomato sauce! Still bought some, though. :lol:

Posted: **February 9th, 2023, 1:47 pm**

Bouleversee wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am always surprised that most people concentrate on the dividend even on the non HYP Board. The health of the underlying business (which is of course supporting the ability to pay the dividend) is so very much more important. Any growth has come from price increases. Volume is down a bit but at least the figure's show considerable loyalty to Unilever's brands. Margin's for the Company are down and the net result is a slight profit improvement, but I think well below the rate of inflation. Not very inspiring but I suppose not bad in the circumstances.

Dod

But you were expressing disappointment re the AZN dividend, Dod. AZN's s.p. is up 135.89% over past 5 yrs and up 33.57% in past year, compared with 8.43% and 7.71% for ULVR. While changed circumstances mean I am more interested in dividends than I used to be, I still go for total return and whereas AZN has been brilliant for me, ULVR has been a big disappointment. It remains to be seen how they will compare in the future and I shall continue to hold both in the hope that ULVR will improve. Since a large slice of my income is now an annuity whose rate was fixed over 20 yrs ago, from a shopper's p.o.v. I'm not too happy about the inflationary effect of huge price rises, however, and I was really shocked by the current price of their tomato sauce! Still bought some, though.

Yes but I hope I was not concentrating on the dividend, just that despite the big increase in the share price the dividend is still stuck. I took some profits on Astra at the beginning of the year as I thought that a bird in the hand and all that........ I suppose it depends on which day you measure the share price. It has been fairly volatile of late but it has certainly more than doubled in the last five years. I had not realised that.

Dod

Posted: **February 10th, 2023, 9:09 am**

Moderator Message:
I have just deleted a number of posts discussing AstraZeneca. This is not the place for such posts. There is a thread discussing AZN's results elsewhere.

TJH

Posted: **March 17th, 2023, 7:55 am**

https://www.investegate.co.uk/unilever- ... 45023474T/

3billion euro share buyback announced...Tranche 3.

"Unilever PLC now announces the commencement of the third tranche of the Programme (the "Third Tranche") for an aggregate market value equivalent to €750 million which will be bought back in the form of Unilever PLC ordinary shares."

Posted: **March 17th, 2023, 11:45 am**

Doesn't seem to want to do the usual spring dip in the share price. I don't think a buy back starting is going to help me either. We'll not to buy some more but might help my current holdings.

Posted: **March 20th, 2023, 8:34 pm**

major news..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ices-stay/

"Unilever cuts Magnum packs by a quarter but prices stay the same
Ice cream packs now carry just three ice creams, rather than four"

I much prefer Aldi's choc orange ( four for less than the price of 1 Magnum). How can Unilever really justify this? Unilever had already cut the size from 110ml to 100ml.

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 3:01 pm**

monabri wrote:major news..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ices-stay/

"Unilever cuts Magnum packs by a quarter but prices stay the same
Ice cream packs now carry just three ice creams, rather than four"

I much prefer Aldi's choc orange ( four for less than the price of 1 Magnum). How can Unilever really justify this? Unilever had already cut the size from 110ml to 100ml.

Unfortunately, we don't all have an Aldi within shopping distance. I hate it when package contents are reduced.

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 3:12 pm**

monabri wrote:major news..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ices-stay/

"Unilever cuts Magnum packs by a quarter but prices stay the same
Ice cream packs now carry just three ice creams, rather than four"

I much prefer Aldi's choc orange ( four for less than the price of 1 Magnum). How can Unilever really justify this? Unilever had already cut the size from 110ml to 100ml.

My late wife used to buy these (I think it was the white ones she had) I had not bought any for years and bought some the other day just to try them again. They are actually very sweet and I could not eat them. I do not understand why they sell any but to cut the packs down to three instead of four will surely be very unpopular.

Anyway received the dividend today.

Dod

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 3:54 pm**

Yes shrinkflation is very irritating and I'm not sure it is the best way to maintain margins. The bulk of the cost of most products is not the underlying product but the packaging, marketing, overheads etc etc. It would be better to be honest, maintain product size and put the price up. Cut back on the other costs, but I suppose the marketing men are never going to advise management to cut the headcount in marketing instead!

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 4:03 pm**

scrumpyjack wrote:Yes shrinkflation is very irritating and I'm not sure it is the best way to maintain margins. The bulk of the cost of most products is not the underlying product but the packaging, marketing, overheads etc etc. It would be better to be honest, maintain product size and put the price up. Cut back on the other costs, but I suppose the marketing men are never going to advise management to cut the headcount in marketing instead!

I had not thought of it that way but in fact it must surely be more inefficient I would have thought to wrap three items into a cardboard box than four anyway, but here we are trying to second guess Unilever. I cannot do that. They have been pretty good at maintaining their margins and it is their business.

Dod

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 8:19 pm**

monabri wrote:major news..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ices-stay/

"Unilever cuts Magnum packs by a quarter but prices stay the same
Ice cream packs now carry just three ice creams, rather than four"

I much prefer Aldi's choc orange ( four for less than the price of 1 Magnum). How can Unilever really justify this? Unilever had already cut the size from 110ml to 100ml.

I have to say it is my perception of the threat to Unilever from Aldi/Lidl, and Sainsbury/Tesco own brands that has prevented me buying into Unilever. Probably a mistake in retrospect as the shares seem to plod continually upward. But at some point most people will notice that all the own brands represent far better value for money. Especially as I understand Aldi is going to be opening a lot more shops, mainly I think of the l
'local' variety, so their market penetration will only increase.

Posted: **March 21st, 2023, 10:46 pm**

Nimrod103 wrote:
monabri wrote:major news..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ices-stay/

"Unilever cuts Magnum packs by a quarter but prices stay the same
Ice cream packs now carry just three ice creams, rather than four"

I much prefer Aldi's choc orange ( four for less than the price of 1 Magnum). How can Unilever really justify this? Unilever had already cut the size from 110ml to 100ml.

I have to say it is my perception of the threat to Unilever from Aldi/Lidl, and Sainsbury/Tesco own brands that has prevented me buying into Unilever. Probably a mistake in retrospect as the shares seem to plod continually upward. But at some point most people will notice that all the own brands represent far better value for money. Especially as I understand Aldi is going to be opening a lot more shops, mainly I think of the l
'local' variety, so their market penetration will only increase.

I think you’re being a bit too parochial. How much profit does Unilever make in the UK as a percentage of its total worldwide profit? It has an absolutely huge Indian business and great exposure to fast growing Asian markets. That’s where the investment case lies. How many shops Aldi open in the UK is pretty much irrelevant.

Posted: **April 27th, 2023, 7:12 am**

Unilever Trading Statement - First Quarter 2023.

First Quarter highlights
• Underlying sales growth (USG) accelerated to 10.5%, driven by progress against strategic priorities
• Growth was broad-based across Business Groups and geographies
• Price growth remained elevated at 10.7%, with an improved quarter-on-quarter volume performance at (0.2)%
• Turnover increased 7.0% to €14.8 billion, including a currency impact of (0.4)% and (2.8)% from disposals net of
acquisitions
• Our billion+ Euro brands, accounting for 54% of Group turnover, delivered underlying sales growth of 12.1%, led
by strong performances from OMO, Hellmann’s, Rexona and Lux
• Continued portfolio reshaping with the announced sale of the Suave brand in North America
• Third €750 million share buyback tranche, announced in March, will complete in July 2023
• Quarterly interim dividend for Q1 2023 is maintained at €0.4268

And later; Dividend £0.3783p ps Ex div 18 May 23, paid 16 Jun 23.

Downloadable via here; https://www.unilever.com/files/9beca798 ... cement.pdf

Ian (I hold).

Posted: **April 29th, 2023, 10:24 am**

Further to the above, the payment date for the dividend is 15 Jun 23, not 16 Jun 23. Sorry if I mislead anyone.

Ian.

The Lemon Fool

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