Now I don't mean to alarm you, mates, but the years are going backwards
2015 review: https://web.archive.org/web/20161104222 ... 09137.aspx
2016 Interims: Q1, Q2, Q3 (#67468, #68863, #70621)
(and yes - you can find posts on the Wayback machine by typing the post number and clicking the green 'GO' button, just like on TMF)
Once upon a time, or maybe twice
Last year I ended by saying...
Breelander (on TMF) wrote: I think the only really safe prediction is that the biggest Surprise will (as always) come from the unknown unknowns...
Well, the biggest surprise of the year must be the closure of the TMF UK boards. Perhaps not unexpected, but a shock none the less. A heartfelt thanks to stooz and Clariman setting up the Lemon Fool. In celebration, this year's guest heading are 'Yellow-ish'. As for other surprises: Brexit and Trump - who could have predicted that a year ago? Or that the markets would react so (apparently) well in the circumstances? Or did they? The Devil is in the Detail (of the exchange rates, that is).
Nothing you can make that can't be made
This is how my HYP looked at the close of business on 23rd December 2016.
Weight Weight Yield Yield
Share Epic Sector by Cap. by div* Hist* F/cast*
Electrocomponents ECM support serv. 6.9% 4.1% 2.5% 2.5%
BAe Systems BA. aero/defence 6.2% 5.2% 3.5% 3.5%
Reckitt Benckiser RB. H/hold goods 5.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2%
Persimmon PSN.L constr&mat 5.3% 8.0% 6.4% 6.4%
Lloyds 9.75% pref. LLPD fixed int. 4.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6%
Shell RDSB oil&gas prod. 4.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.1%
Aviva AV. ins. life 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
United Utilities UU. util gas/water 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Diageo DGE beverage 4.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Glaxo Smithkline GSK pharm/biotec 4.2% 5.1% 6.5% 5.2%
SSE plc SSE util.electricity 4.1% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9%
BT Group BT.A tel.fix 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9%
Unilever ULVR food prod/proc 4.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2%
British Land BLND REITs 3.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.6%
Halfords HFD retail gen. 3.4% 3.8% 4.8% 4.8%
IMI IMI indust. eng. 3.3% 3.0% 3.8% 3.8%
Vodaphone VOD tel.mob 3.2% 4.9% 6.6% 6.6%
Marks & Spencer MKS retail gen. 3.1% 4.8% 6.6% 6.6%
Rio Tinto RIO.L mining 2.8% 1.7% 3.5% 2.6%
RSA Insurance Gp. RSA ins. gen 2.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.1%
Lloyds Group LLOY banks 2.6% 2.5% 4.6% 4.0%
Carillion CLLN support serv. 2.4% 4.3% 7.7% 7.7%
Pearson PSON media 2.3% 3.5% 6.3% 6.3%
Centrica CNA util gas/water 2.0% 2.4% 5.2% 5.2%
De La Rue DLAR support serv. 1.8% 1.7% 4.0% 4.0%
Tesco TSCO retail food/drg 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Amec Foster Wheeler AMFW Oil equip/serv. 1.4% 1.6% 4.7% 4.8%
Sainsbury (J) SBRY retail food/drg 1.1% 1.2% 4.7% 4.9%
Barclays BARC banks 0.9% 0.4% 2.0% 2.0%
Current Yield*: 19 Dec 2016 median: 3.41% 4.32% 4.24%
* Definitions:
Historic Yield: the trailing twelve-month yield (ttm) - sum of latest declared dividends over past year. May contain dividends from two reporting years.
Forecast Yield: My own conservative forecast for next year. Basically same as Historic, except where there is an explicit dividend policy. My 'forecast' for Persimmon's yield is based on their declared Capital Return Plan. My 'same as last year' forecast for AMFW isn't believed by the market, which currently forecasts around 7%.
Current Yield: Historic Yield / current portfolio value.
Weight by Dividend: calculated using my forecast yield.