Government has sold more Lloyds

Breelander
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Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby Breelander » January 9th, 2017, 7:38 pm

I hold that Once (and Future?) HYP candidate Lloyds.

Some 700m shares, or another 1%, have been sold by the Government in a little under a month - taking the Government's holding to...

The Commissioners of Her Majesty's Treasury wrote:Below 6%
http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00095970T/

spiderbill
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby spiderbill » January 10th, 2017, 12:24 am

The question is whether once they've completely sold that the price will then be more likely to rise free of restraint; and if so how will that affect the yield.
I topped up about 14 months ago when prospects looked good but with yet more PPI charges piling on the pressure it has dropped 12.5%. Must admit that I'm tempted to add a few more in the fairly near future if the price holds until the gov share is approaching zero, in the hope of both catching the yield and riding exactly such a share price rise. But it wouldn't exactly be the first time they've caught me out if it goes awry!

cheers
Spiderbill

ap8889
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby ap8889 » January 10th, 2017, 4:08 am

Lloyds catastrophically failed once due to poor management requiring a bailout to stay solvent.

The management who drove it into the wall look to me to be more credible than the current shower, who can't even conduct an affair without getting caught and mocked.

Bargepole for me on the basis of management integrity and competence. Plus the company track record of near blowing up in a crisis.

FredBloggs
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby FredBloggs » January 10th, 2017, 4:24 am

Really? Did Lloyds fail so badly? I seem to recall it was a fairly boring, quite conservative bank until Gordon Brown virtually forced the takeover of HBOS. Was it not that single act of crass stupidity that sank Lloyds? HBOS should have been allowed to go the same way as Lehmans and a few others, should it not?

Dod1010
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby Dod1010 » January 10th, 2017, 7:12 am

Not getting into a discussion about what Gordon Brown did or did not do but what I cannot understand is that you are all trading on a) what once was and b) what might be. Had you kept the faith with say HSBC you would have been a lot better off income wise since 2009, as although HSBC is not yet either any where near where it was capital wise, it has at least kept paying a dividend for all of these years.

The yield is not bad; good luck to you. After all you deserve something for your patience. It might just be a decent investment one day.

Wizard
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby Wizard » January 10th, 2017, 8:10 am

ap8889 wrote:...management integrity and competence...


The much discussed (on the old Motley Fool banking board) actions taken by Lloyds to redeem the ECNs which culminated in a Supreme Court case last year gives insight and pose questions in equal measure IMHO. Are Lloyds willing to do and say anything to make money for shareholders or are they a bank that has no regard for small investors, even those who were willing to support them during their darkest hour, or indeed maybe both?

Terry.

Disc: my largest single holding is in Lloyds LLPD preference shares bought long before the ECN saga started and I have never held Lloyds equity or ECNs.

FredBloggs
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby FredBloggs » January 10th, 2017, 8:11 am

Not for me it won't. I haven't held any Lloyds shares for more than a decade now.

Moderator Message:
This has veered away from HYP discussion so moving to Banking Board. Raptor.

Gengulphus
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby Gengulphus » January 10th, 2017, 11:48 am

Dod1010 wrote:... but what I cannot understand is that you are all trading on a) what once was and b) what might be.

I think just about every HYP decision is based on what once was (historical data) and/or what might be (forecast data)!

What I suspect you really mean is something along the lines of "what once was, too many years in the past" and "what might be, too many years in the future", since we routinely look at data about times other than right now as long as the gap in time isn't too big. E.g. HYP1's construction used 5-year dividend records and forecast dividends, so looked up to about 5 years into the past and 1 year into the future.

And if you look at Lloyds right now from that point of view, well, it's got nothing badly wrong with it in that time frame. It doesn't meet the HYP1 standard of having an increasing dividend record over the last five years, but it doesn't have any cuts in them either. And HYPers aren't required to follow the HYP1 standard precisely, and could in particular have a less stringent dividend record criterion than HYP1.

In fact, it's those who do take the 2008/9 dividend cuts into account in their HYP trading decisions who are arguably trading on what once was, too many years in the past... Only "arguably", by the way - it's not an argument I would make myself, as I also think HYPers are free to have a more stringent dividend record criterion than HYP1.

Gengulphus

ap8889
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby ap8889 » January 10th, 2017, 2:37 pm

FredBloggs wrote:Really? Did Lloyds fail so badly? I seem to recall it was a fairly boring, quite conservative bank until Gordon Brown virtually forced the takeover of HBOS. Was it not that single act of crass stupidity that sank Lloyds? HBOS should have been allowed to go the same way as Lehmans and a few others, should it not?


I think you have answered your own question there. Good management gets the big decisions right, including (but not limited to) mega mergers, stiffing small investors out of their due, and managing ones private life. Good luck to holders, but my money is firmly elsewhere.

Dod1010
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Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Postby Dod1010 » January 11th, 2017, 7:59 am

What I meant by 'once was' was that Lloyds was once upon a time a great income stock (I held it myself in the pre 2008 days). That memory lingers and investors (or some of them anyway) are still living on it.

'What might be'. As a recovery share it holds great promise, or does it and when? The yield is not bad at the moment and maybe it does pass the test. I have not looked at the figures but I would prefer to wait and see how it settles down. In so doing I may miss the boat; if so so be it.

There are at least two distinct classes of investor here, those who have held since pre 2008 and those who are looking at it through fresh eyes.

The former cannot be blamed for whistling in the dark as they have had many unproductive years, and surely deserve some reward for their patience. I would use another word but that would be insulting I imagine.

As for the latter, they must decide if it is now worth a punt. It is not like a start up but it is now a very different company from the old Lloyds, a lot bigger for a start, and with many different brands to bring together. It will be interesting to see how it does, but it reminds me a bit of Aviva and RSA with a lot of baggage to sort out. I will not be buying.

Dod


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