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Hitting 1 Million - Stocks & Crypto [formerly Long Road to Millionaire Topic]

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#20639

Postby will89 » January 6th, 2017, 11:23 am

Just as a quick 2016 summary, the unit value of our investments was 9.94 at the end of 2015, and 11.40 at the end of 2016, so an improvement of around 14.5%, which I'm very happy with. We hit a useful milestone in December, which was a live value of £10k overall profit including dividends, which was nice.

Capital value over the year rose by 105% due to the unit value growth and substantial top-ups. Unit value as as of today stands at 11.75.

I keep a master spreadsheet with all of the data, and one of the tabs I maintain shows snapshots at the end of each quarter. Reassuringly, our portfolio has beaten the market in 9 of the last 10 quarters, some being close, but the only 'loser' being the Brexit quarter of April-June 16.

The three 'areas' of our portfolio are now roughly aligned how I want them to be. Value/Small Cap accounts for 30%, HYP/Income accounts for 39%, and Investment Trusts account for 30%. Plans for this year include adding a couple of new HYP shares, continuing to monitor for value opportunities, and topping up ITs where appropriate.
I very much get the feeling that the first two years of investing have been about learning the fundamentals (first investment was 02/15), but I now feel comfortable and settled with a strategy and portfolio setup that works well for us personally, so can now focus on returns and maximising opportunities rather than refining and tweaking strategy.

will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#20655

Postby will89 » January 6th, 2017, 12:26 pm

Following on from the post above, our current holdings are shown below. Apologies as I managed to cut off the column headers but they are EPIC, Name, Running P/L% inc. Divis, % of total portfolio.

You will note that I am overweight in a couple of Small Caps, but I'm comfortable with that for now as they're my highest conviction picks and over time they can be top-sliced or, with new money being added making up a relatively high % of the total portfolio value, their weighting will naturally come down. Any comments are very welcome.

Image

will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#20668

Postby will89 » January 6th, 2017, 1:01 pm

Image

Apologies, as I was adding this chart I noticed one of my comments above is incorrect. We have in fact beaten the FT100 in 8 of the 10 previous quarters, not 9 as mentioned above, the 2 losses were Oct-Dec15 (-3.5%) and Apr-Jun16 (ouch -7.7%).

I know the results aren't world-beating, but for a first couple of years investing I feel content that I have been able to learn and mould my own strategy (and risk/diversification appetite) into something that works well for me and will hopefully now start to show good results, which is a nice feeling to have. 2017 here I come!

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#20724

Postby will89 » January 6th, 2017, 3:15 pm

Just as a quick addition, I received a PM from a reader regarding benchmarking, and the fact the FT100/350etc perhaps aren't the best for my portfolio, which I agree wholeheartedly with. My reply is below:

I really feel like I need to compare to some other benchmarks, as you said an equal-weighted FTSE would be a good start, I think I would also like to use a world tracker too, but I just haven't had the time to go back and unitise them yet to match up with the portfolio.
Until recently I ran the tracking of the 2 portfolios separately, with the HYP element being stored in a separate spreadsheet, which is why the benchmarks were FTSE-related. In December I decided to migrate everything into one single tracking spreadsheet, I just haven't adjusted the benchmarks to match the newly blended portfolio, thanks for the tip.

will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#23413

Postby will89 » January 16th, 2017, 9:40 am

Topped up some Somero last week after seeing the trading update.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#23688

Postby Shelford » January 17th, 2017, 10:05 am

Good question about benchmark.

What is an appropriate stick to beat ourselves with?

For my HYP, I compare annual performance with FTSE all share (on basis that if I'm not beating that, it's time to pack my bags and put everything into trackers...) and also IUKD, which is an ETF that tries to emulate HYP strategy with about 50 or so higher yielding UK shares. See https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... -ucits-etf.

Again, if you can't beat that on a regular basis (with presumably lower ongoing charges etc as you hold your shares direct) with your HYP, it begs questions about the point of doing the exercise ourselves.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#23792

Postby PrincessB » January 17th, 2017, 3:05 pm

Good question about benchmark.

What is an appropriate stick to beat ourselves with?


I feel there is a lot of answer from the simple question.

From memory HYP#1 has returned about 11% per year since inception - Whether some of the other HYP portfolios have returned a similar level and whether the completely out of balance HYP#1 should have some remedial tinkering are questions for the HYP board.

My mindset is that you should be able to return around 10% over a reasonable timescale while doing practically no research, trading or worrying about swings in the markets.

I also understand that some well known fund type managers, Warren Buffet or Woodford have managed somewhere close to 20% per year. The difference being that they do this full time and get to meet people and have staff and researchers and the like.

I know we can find examples of folk who have used high gearing to generate spectacular returns but my view is that all the work one does, all of the reading, pouring over company reports and spreadsheets and charts and tipsheets is likely to improve your returns by up to 10% over the baseline HYP.

I for one would love to be a HYPer - Part of my strategy is to gently steer in that direction and I for one would love to have a £1 million valued HYP, unfortunately there is no conceivable way a 10% return is going to get me to that point in an acceptable timespan so higher returns are required and that means work.

In many respects, ones early days of working out how the stock market works with a minimally sized portfolio have a lot in common with an internship. You do a mountain of work and even with a spectacular return rate you're barely rewarded for your effort. That does change over time, but I can understand the temptation in the early days to go for that high risk/high reward stuff - Usually a mistake as those I've known who tried this have gotten wiped out and vow never to return. A shame really but a clear case of running before you can walk.

As I've mentioned before, I've given up on tracking returns by percentage, I calculate total portfolio value once, on New Years Day and in the meantime I buy stuff I like and sell stuff which looks a bit toppy and if I can't find anything that grows, I'll buy yield.

I can recommend this strategy as it certainly stops me from worrying whether I'm making the grade and if I'm not reaching target getting silly and going beyond my own comfortable risk profile. I can buy enough silly stuff without the extra incentive of trying to meet a target.

Regards,

B.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#23797

Postby StepOne » January 17th, 2017, 3:32 pm

PrincessB wrote:
I for one would love to be a HYPer - Part of my strategy is to gently steer in that direction and I for one would love to have a £1 million valued HYP, unfortunately there is no conceivable way a 10% return is going to get me to that point in an acceptable timespan so higher returns are required and that means work.


Similar thinking to me, except that I've discovered that all the extra work I put in did not result in improved returns, so I have scrapped any thoughts of getting to 1 million pounds, and just decided to build my hyp.

StepOne

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#23803

Postby moorfield » January 17th, 2017, 3:52 pm

PrincessB wrote: so I have scrapped any thoughts of getting to 1 million pounds, and just decided to build my hyp.


Indeed 1 million pounds might not be quite what we expected when we all eventually get there ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTmXHvGZiSY

:lol:

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#24680

Postby will89 » January 20th, 2017, 11:39 am

I've been doing a bit of reading about lifetime ISAs, as we'll both be eligible in April when they launch, thought I would seek opinions here.
We are lucky enough (at the moment) to be able to afford to deposit the full £40,000 (20k each) into our ISAs next year, and are both late 20s.

With the new lifetime ISA, we'll be able to deposit 4k each and receive £1000 per year from the government. We'll then be able to take the money, with the bonus (and any growth), when we hit 60, or pay a 25% charge and withdraw it earlier. We already own a home, which is the other use of the Lifetime ISA.

As far as I can see we have 2 options, either keep going with our 'standard' ISAs and deposit the full 20k each next tax year, or put 16k each in the standard ISA and 4k each into the new Lifetime ISA. It's probably also worth pointing out that we both contribute to pensions.

As far as I can see, there's no debate, if we desparately need some cash in the next 30ish years we can take it from the normal ISA and then Lifetime ISA only as a final resort (and pay the 25% charge). We'll get 2k of 'free' money each year until we're 50 just for depositing 8k between us...

I'm not sure how to deal with the 'free' cash for portfolio tracking/returns purposes. I presume I'm better to regard it as a deposit rather than a 'Government Dividend' :) , although I guess I am getting a 25% return on our £4000 deposit each year...


As an aside, I bought some BOTB after results this week.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#24693

Postby tjh290633 » January 20th, 2017, 12:01 pm

will89 wrote:I'm not sure how to deal with the 'free' cash for portfolio tracking/returns purposes. I presume I'm better to regard it as a deposit rather than a 'Government Dividend' :) , although I guess I am getting a 25% return on our £4000 deposit each year...


Back when PEPs and ISAs gave you back any tax incurred, I just simply added it to the income generated from dividends, but not to the individual shares. I also deducted the management fees charged by the ISA/PEP manager from the net income plus the tax credit, to arrive at the net income for the portfolio. I see that the fees exceeded the tax credit in 1987-9, and 1993-96, five years in all. From April 2004 onwards, tax credits ceased to be reclaimable (except for REITs), so fees became deducted from the net dividends received.

TJH

will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#24698

Postby will89 » January 20th, 2017, 12:11 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Back when PEPs and ISAs gave you back any tax incurred, I just simply added it to the income generated from dividends, but not to the individual shares. I also deducted the management fees charged by the ISA/PEP manager from the net income plus the tax credit, to arrive at the net income for the portfolio. I see that the fees exceeded the tax credit in 1987-9, and 1993-96, five years in all. From April 2004 onwards, tax credits ceased to be reclaimable (except for REITs), so fees became deducted from the net dividends received.


Good idea, on my tracking spreadsheet I can just add a new row in the cash section called 'Lifetime Isa Bonus' with an EPIC like 'LISA' allocated to it, and then just add dividend payments for that epic to my trades sheet. It'll add the free money into our XIRR etc, and I suppose it should really be included.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#24940

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 21st, 2017, 11:07 am

will89 wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:Back when PEPs and ISAs gave you back any tax incurred, I just simply added it to the income generated from dividends, but not to the individual shares. I also deducted the management fees charged by the ISA/PEP manager from the net income plus the tax credit, to arrive at the net income for the portfolio. I see that the fees exceeded the tax credit in 1987-9, and 1993-96, five years in all. From April 2004 onwards, tax credits ceased to be reclaimable (except for REITs), so fees became deducted from the net dividends received.

Good idea, on my tracking spreadsheet I can just add a new row in the cash section called 'Lifetime Isa Bonus' with an EPIC like 'LISA' allocated to it, and then just add dividend payments for that epic to my trades sheet. It'll add the free money into our XIRR etc, and I suppose it should really be included.


I think the key is to keep a record, as you say, and split it out so that you know what the government contribution has been. That way, you can record your own investment performance independently, because - otherwise - you'd be seeing 25% growth each year even if the monies you were contributing stayed flat.

For my SIPP, I record the government top up as a contribution so that it does not distort my focus on the portfolio's investment performance.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#35927

Postby will89 » March 3rd, 2017, 11:39 am

A quick March update.

Not much trading since Christmas, annoyingly I sold my holding in PURP on 24/01 after reading lots of negative customer feedback, made 5% profit but it would now be worth double... I don't regret selling, but it reminded me how vain the market is and that I perhaps need to reconsider my own balance between fussing over live (non financial) minutiae and forgetting about the market's current desire for high growth 'disruptive' businesses. The trend should have been my friend...

Topped up SOM, added IGG to my HYP, and added a small holding in LOOP, not much else to report except Ethereum. I've been fascinated by Crypocurrencies (Bitcoin etc) for a long time, so took a small holding in a currency called Ethereum, which I think could be very big news over the next few years. Even though this is (arguably) a currency, it's still an investment for me like any other stock, so I included it in the portfolio. It's since gone on a huge bull run, mainly in the last couple of weeks, up 97% in the last month.

The full portfolio has returned 11.22% since 01/01, which I'm very happy with. Current portfolio structure is below, and any feedback is as always very welcome.
When April comes, I will first be filling both of our LISAs, which seem a no brainer. I'll then be trying to redress the balance of the portfolio over the year to eventually end up with a blend of around 50% growth/value, 25% HYP, 25% IT.

Cut off the column headers by accident again, they are EPIC, Name, P/L % Inc. Dividends, % of Portfolio.

Image

Image

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#41894

Postby will89 » March 28th, 2017, 2:29 pm

Ethereum - I originally bought in at £6, it's now £40. I expect it to be £100+ very soon. Watch this space :)

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#41912

Postby Raptor » March 28th, 2017, 3:52 pm

will89 wrote:Ethereum - I originally bought in at £6, it's now £40. I expect it to be £100+ very soon. Watch this space :)


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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#48179

Postby RossP » April 24th, 2017, 12:53 pm

[quote="will89"]
As far as I can see we have 2 options, either keep going with our 'standard' ISAs and deposit the full 20k each next tax year, or put 16k each in the standard ISA and 4k each into the new Lifetime ISA. It's probably also worth pointing out that we both contribute to pensions.

As far as I can see, there's no debate, if we desparately need some cash in the next 30ish years we can take it from the normal ISA and then Lifetime ISA only as a final resort (and pay the 25% charge). We'll get 2k of 'free' money each year until we're 50 just for depositing 8k between us...
[quote]

I went through a similar thought process the other day but came to a different conclusions. I too already own property so the LISA would purely be for retirement...but given that I (and you from the sounds of it) have other ISA funds that could be accessed in an emergency, where is the benefit over simply investing that £4k into your pension?

FYI I currently have a work based pension into which I pay the maximum my employer will match but I could always pay more. My current earning are just below the 40% tax barrier but are likely to creep above it in the near future. I am assuming, given that you and your partner can save £20k each over and above SIPP contributions that you are likely in a similar position. I am also assuming that my pension will not be high enough to be in the 40% tax bracket when I retire.

My understanding is that this is a trade off between 25% on your LISA vs 40% tax savings on your Pension (minus ~20% tax). This would seem like a 5% win for the LISA but then you have to factor in the ever increasing amount of income that is tax free and the fact you can take a 25% lump sum tax free before(?) the age at which you can access your LISA without penalty.

I would love to hear if there are some false assumptions in my thinking?

Ross

will89
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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#51457

Postby will89 » May 5th, 2017, 4:52 pm

Regarding the images above, I can't go back and edit in a message, but will add a disclaimer on all future posts.


Ross,
Indeed, I've now come to the conclusion that it's not worth going for a LISA, I'm just going to fill normal ISAs this year, funds permitting.


Portfolio is still going fine, I'll do a full update at the end of the next quarter.

I've mentioned Ethereum a couple of times in the posts above, I've actually been channeling funds into this instead of our ISAs for the last few months, as it seems like a crazy opportunity (but definitely won't be to the appetite of many). The whole cryptocurrency space has exploded in 2017, I was buying ETH at £6 around Christmas, it's now at £75. I've been buying on the way up, but am 6x up on spend, and I feel like this is just the start. My ETH pot is now a higher value than our ISAs.

It's a long term hold where I will be looking for an exit price in 4 digits. It's clearly a very risky investment, but it fits with my 'stick all your eggs in a risky basket when you're young' philosophy. It will be a very bumpy road but I think it has the potential to really change the world. Definitely something worth reading up on if you are interested. I can provide more in depth explanation of what Ethereum is and what it can do if people are interested as well.

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#55450

Postby tbird » May 22nd, 2017, 9:02 pm

It's a long term hold where I will be looking for an exit price in 4 digits. It's clearly a very risky investment, but it fits with my 'stick all your eggs in a risky basket when you're young' philosophy. It will be a very bumpy road but I think it has the potential to really change the world. Definitely something worth reading up on if you are interested. I can provide more in depth explanation of what Ethereum is and what it can do if people are interested as well.


yes please will. like you i'm in the young and risky approach to investing at the moment. would like to know more on this..

thanks

tbird

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Re: The Long Road To ISA Millionaires

#56800

Postby mlc2010 » May 30th, 2017, 9:14 pm

will89 wrote:Regarding the images above, I can't go back and edit in a message, but will add a disclaimer on all future posts.


Ross,
Indeed, I've now come to the conclusion that it's not worth going for a LISA, I'm just going to fill normal ISAs this year, funds permitting.


Portfolio is still going fine, I'll do a full update at the end of the next quarter.

I've mentioned Ethereum a couple of times in the posts above, I've actually been channeling funds into this instead of our ISAs for the last few months, as it seems like a crazy opportunity (but definitely won't be to the appetite of many). The whole cryptocurrency space has exploded in 2017, I was buying ETH at £6 around Christmas, it's now at £75. I've been buying on the way up, but am 6x up on spend, and I feel like this is just the start. My ETH pot is now a higher value than our ISAs.

It's a long term hold where I will be looking for an exit price in 4 digits. It's clearly a very risky investment, but it fits with my 'stick all your eggs in a risky basket when you're young' philosophy. It will be a very bumpy road but I think it has the potential to really change the world. Definitely something worth reading up on if you are interested. I can provide more in depth explanation of what Ethereum is and what it can do if people are interested as well.


would also like some info, sent a PM


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