Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

But it's Tesla who are advising this. Are you suggesting that they don't know what they are talking about?

Can I suggest looking at their advice on their official website. It's very clear.

"In the winter time, reduce energy loss by driving conservatively and limiting energy use in the cabin. This helps with range and efficiency all year-round, but even more so during colder months.

Drive at moderate speeds.
Limit frequent and rapid acceleration.
If possible, lower the cabin temperature setting and use seat heaters for added warmth."

I can't understand why you'd believe Tesla would publish misleading information?

regards n

Howard

The Tesla web site gives general advice such as you find in the owners manual for every car I have owned.

It does not say anything different to what one finds in ICE manuals under the section about how to best treat your car and maximise its life. There are added features that are big battery specific, but it is not saying you should drive so slowly that all the other cars pass you or turn down the heating till you are uncomfortable.

Tesla in car displays do everything they can to inform you of battery status, range etc etc. Some folk will ignore all of this just as some folk will drive ICE cars aggressively and obtain much reduced fuel consumption to those who drive in a more restrained manner. I have seen numerous examples of where two drivers fuel consumption are compared on cars tuned to be the same level and the difference can be 30%+ in mpg.

All of this is basic physics. The faster one drives, the worse use of the gear box, the more adverse the weather, the more fuel that will be used. This is all engine independent. I can tell with in a few minutes if someone will get good mpg or its equivalent from seeing how they drive. I was with a driver recently and found the ride terrible and their use of the gears very poor. Afterwards I looked at their tyres which were low on pressure and suggested they were blown up. This was ignored till the walls were cracking and new tyres had to be fitted and then the driver was amazed at how much better the car handled and how further it went on each gallon. I was also told that it wouldn't start a while back and when checked it was found that the oil level was hardly measurable on the dip stick. Mechanical abuse, but better than abusing an animal.

It doesn't matter what kind of car one has, if you don't maintain it, don't drive it sensibly then it will not give you optimum anything.

Regards,

[dspp]

At the moment everyone who is making a BEV is figuring out how to put the minimum battery in it to get an acceptable (satisficing) outcome for their target segment. That is because there is such a desperate shortage of batteries and no-one, not even Tesla (with 1/3), have enough.

That is why even these miracle Kona or Hyundai BEVs have the same problems just dealt with in one of a few limited ways by even the best of designs (and is of course worse for the worst designs). And however much folk try, until the cell shortage is solved all the cars will be very cell-constrained. It is going to take the best part of a decade to work through that pain barrier.

For us as investors the decision is all about where to position ourselves in risk-reward space as we collectively transition that pain barrier.

Risk can be painful. I have the scars to prove it. Tesla 2020 earnings day is tomorrow evening.

regards, dspp

[dealtn]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask.

I (think) I get the switch to BEV as a "greener" way of doing things. We might not have got there yet, I don't know the typical life, but what is the process for disposing of all those batteries at the end of their useful life? How does that affect the "green" argument? Is this the next "green" scandal where all those chemicals are waste/pollution?

[dspp]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask.

I (think) I get the switch to BEV as a "greener" way of doing things. We might not have got there yet, I don't know the typical life, but what is the process for disposing of all those batteries at the end of their useful life? How does that affect the "green" argument? Is this the next "green" scandal where all those chemicals are waste/pollution?

A mixture of solutions are envisaged:

1. Take the packs out of the cars when the cars fall apart.
2. Either straight use of entire pack in stationary grid applications, or strip pack to cell level then repack cells with remaining lifetimes for stationary applications, or 4.
3. Use until cyclic lifetime exhausted in stationary (grid) applications, then 4.
4. Break up cells, recycle minerals content (this has already been demonstrated if my memory serves me right*) and build new cells. The cells are already concentrated mineral sources so are quite valuable.

regards, dspp

* here is one link, https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... anese.html and if you look around you'll see others

[odysseus2000]

dspp 4. Break up cells, recycle minerals content (this has already been demonstrated if my memory serves me right*) and build new cells. The cells are already concentrated mineral sources so are quite valuable.

Yes, this is the new frontier in advanced manufacturing with several manufactures including Apple attempting to do 100% recycling of their products. There are two rationals for this:

1. It avoid land fill and reduces the need for extractive industries.

2. Having paid for the elements once, by re-using them over and over the initial cost is divided by the number of re-uses (potentially unlimited) plus the cost of the recycling machinery and the energy to run it. The energy to run the machines is provided from renewable sources (solar, wind) and the cost of the machinery is again divided by the number of re-uses with the addition of staffing and maintenance costs.

Or in more simple terms there is a very strong business case for re-using all the expensive elements that go into a modern advanced device.

In principle almost all aspects of anything can be re-cycled and re-used in various ways given some thought. For a long time there was no way to re-cycle automobile tyres and there were huge dumps all over the place, but then methods and uses were found and as I understand it, all tyres are now recycled.

The impact on the bottom line for business that develop this technology are significant as are the savings on disposal costs and reduced landfill. Some of the more enthusiastic re-cycle folk even speculate that at some point it will be economic to mine rubbish dumps for what has been discarded.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask.

I (think) I get the switch to BEV as a "greener" way of doing things. We might not have got there yet, I don't know the typical life, but what is the process for disposing of all those batteries at the end of their useful life? How does that affect the "green" argument? Is this the next "green" scandal where all those chemicals are waste/pollution?

To add to DSPP's response there are two ways this is being approached, OEM and third party.

As a car manufacturer VW's claim about the carbon neutrality of the ID.3/4 for example is that it is lifetime net carbon neutral, and this included planned recycling on either the pack or cell level depending on whether they retain enough charge to be useful for less intensive operations like static storage in a battery augmented BEV charger, VW's version of which conveniently uses the MEB battery pack found in the ID.3/4.

As a battery supplier Northvolt's stated aim is to create the Greenest batteries, and a part of that will be achieved through recycling of cells, and a target of 50% recycled material in their batteries by 2030. They have a recycling pilot line attached to their main plant in Sweden, plans to add a full size recycling plant, and have a joint venture recycling used BEV batteries in Norway a logical place to start.

Redwood Materials, established by Tesla founder JB Straubel, is a company whose sole purpose as far as I am aware is recycling BEV battery packs.

These are examples I'm aware of mainly through my interest in VW, who own 20% of Northvolt, and because anything which Straubel does gets plenty of coverage on the Teslacentric BEV sites, they may not be and probably aren't typical.

I see three things which will support systemic recycling of BEV batteries.

The first is money. They contain materials which are currently scarce and therefor valuable, there's (currently) a profit motive. Frankly as long as this holds true the bulk of batteries are going to find their way back in to the loop. Trickier cases such as damaged batteries from accidents, may require a different motivation, as Tesla demonstrated below. Additionally packs/cells which can be taken at their end of useful life in one role and repurposed in a less demanding role is a pack/cell which the manufacturer no longer has to buy/manufacture, and possibly discharges or atleast delays their end of life obligations at the same time. Another source of money would be government support for recycling research and infrastructure, very popular at the moment...

The second is, subject to enforcement, regulation. There was recently a lot of hoo-ha, and claims of protectionism when Tesla was fined €10 million by the German government for failing to fulfil it's requirements to take back batteries at end of life and recycle/dispose of them appropriately. A failure to develop and enforce proper battery lifecycle requirements would be a failure of government, obviously a shocking break from the norm, but the opposite is also true - governments can act, and have acted, to prevent the sort of scandal which is playing on your mind.

The third, and frankly weakest would be good intention/publicity.

[dealtn]

That's encouraging, and its 4 that concerns me in practice (and frankly 0, before we get to 1, what is the environmental damage in extracting the "minerals" often in 3rd world countries etc in the first place?).

I may be unfair but the "amateur green", if that's an appropriate description, sees the horrible exhaust on a petrol/diesel engine, and the "fresh air" equivalent from a BEV.

The reality is there is non-green all along the chain from extraction of minerals/oil, the manufacturing, the energy from the power station to charge the batteries, to the disposal of the products at the end of their useful life, in both alternatives.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
The third, and frankly weakest would be good intention/publicity.

Not in the 21st century. Bad publicity, practices seen as bad can cost you your entire business.

One of the reasons for Biden's election win is that Lady Gaga called her fans to war, asking then to register and vote for Biden against the fracking industry and effectively killed it by getting Biden elected.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

That's encouraging, and its 4 that concerns me in practice (and frankly 0, before we get to 1, what is the environmental damage in extracting the "minerals" often in 3rd world countries etc in the first place?).

I may be unfair but the "amateur green", if that's an appropriate description, sees the horrible exhaust on a petrol/diesel engine, and the "fresh air" equivalent from a BEV.

The reality is there is non-green all along the chain from extraction of minerals/oil, the manufacturing, the energy from the power station to charge the batteries, to the disposal of the products at the end of their useful life, in both alternatives.

There have been numerous studies on this. Those funded by big oil, say how terrible is the pollution from BEV, those funded by environmental groups note how terrible big oil is.

Of the ones I have studied, the life cycle pollution from BEV with renewable energy and battery recycle is dramatically better than the emissions from hydrocarbon fuels.

In addition, much less discussed, is the geopolitical instability that comes from having most of the world's energy produced by a few places in the oil economy contrasted with the geopolitical stability of generating the power from renewables at home.

Regards,

[dealtn]

That's encouraging, and its 4 that concerns me in practice (and frankly 0, before we get to 1, what is the environmental damage in extracting the "minerals" often in 3rd world countries etc in the first place?).

I may be unfair but the "amateur green", if that's an appropriate description, sees the horrible exhaust on a petrol/diesel engine, and the "fresh air" equivalent from a BEV.

The reality is there is non-green all along the chain from extraction of minerals/oil, the manufacturing, the energy from the power station to charge the batteries, to the disposal of the products at the end of their useful life, in both alternatives.

There have been numerous studies on this. Those funded by big oil, say how terrible is the pollution from BEV, those funded by environmental groups note how terrible big oil is.

Of the ones I have studied, the life cycle pollution from BEV with renewable energy and battery recycle is dramatically better than the emissions from hydrocarbon fuels.

In addition, much less discussed, is the geopolitical instability that comes from having most of the world's energy produced by a few places in the oil economy contrasted with the geopolitical stability of generating the power from renewables at home.

Regards,

A whole new topic but I'm not sure how only a few countries controlling the supply of a large amount of the necessary minerals for batteries, and similar, would be much different from a potential instability perspective. (A much truer Macro and Global Topic than whether Tesla, or VW are great investments).

[BobbyD]

The reality is there is non-green all along the chain from extraction of minerals/oil, the manufacturing, the energy from the power station to charge the batteries, to the disposal of the products at the end of their useful life, in both alternatives.

Depends whose chain it is!

An amazing amount of the energy usage in that chain can be covered by renewably generated electricity. As well as using it to charge the BEV you can use it to build batteries, power factories, run mining trucks and loaders - especially useful underground due to lack of exhaust fumes ...and you forgot transportation, of materials, components and the final product. Something addressed by the use of trains running on green leccy.

If you stick all those things together with a decent recycling strategy, and then offset the remainder you can do this:

How Volkswagen makes the ID.3 carbon neutral

https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... utral.html

Not in the 21st century. Bad publicity, practices seen as bad can cost you your entire business.

One of the reasons for Biden's election win is that Lady Gaga called her fans to war, asking then to register and vote for Biden against the fracking industry and effectively killed it by getting Biden elected.

Regards,

Your talking to a VW shareholder, a company you have repeatedly said nobody wants to buy from post-Dieselgate as they set new records for annual deliveries and swiftly became more profitable than they were pre-dieselegate.

I'm sure it was Lady Gaga who killed fracking and not an oil price well below their break even.

Money and a clean image work well together, but if you can only have one money will keep you solvent a lot longer than the respect of people who aren't buying your product.

[BobbyD]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask.

I (think) I get the switch to BEV as a "greener" way of doing things. We might not have got there yet, I don't know the typical life, but what is the process for disposing of all those batteries at the end of their useful life? How does that affect the "green" argument? Is this the next "green" scandal where all those chemicals are waste/pollution?

To add to DSPP's response there are two ways this is being approached, OEM and third party.

As a car manufacturer VW's claim about the carbon neutrality of the ID.3/4 for example is that it is lifetime net carbon neutral, and this included planned recycling on either the pack or cell level depending on whether they retain enough charge to be useful for less intensive operations like static storage in a battery augmented BEV charger, VW's version of which conveniently uses the MEB battery pack found in the ID.3/4.

...now setting sail for the high seas!

VW launches new solar-electric yacht project with MEB platform, CUPRA design, and Silent Yachts

- https://electrek.co/2021/01/27/vw-solar ... nt-yachts/

[odysseus2000]

dealtn
A whole new topic but I'm not sure how only a few countries controlling the supply of a large amount of the necessary minerals for batteries, and similar, would be much different from a potential instability perspective. (A much truer Macro and Global Topic than whether Tesla, or VW are great investments).

Once one moves to a 100% or near 100% recycle economy, the dependence on over seas suppliers of elements for BEV falls off rapidly and then there is the potential for space mining of elements from the moon/asteroids as new sources with no earth pollution at all for the extraction. As things now are the amount of cobalt is being reduced in batteries, nickel is still a problem, but there is a lot of lithium all over the place.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Money and a clean image work well together, but if you can only have one money will keep you solvent a lot longer than the respect of people who aren't buying your product.

So said the Slave Traders and every other industry that had bad practices and which has now fallen by the way side.

Regards,

[dealtn]

dealtn
A whole new topic but I'm not sure how only a few countries controlling the supply of a large amount of the necessary minerals for batteries, and similar, would be much different from a potential instability perspective. (A much truer Macro and Global Topic than whether Tesla, or VW are great investments).

Once one moves to a 100% or near 100% recycle economy, the dependence on over seas suppliers of elements for BEV falls off rapidly and then there is the potential for space mining of elements from the moon/asteroids as new sources with no earth pollution at all for the extraction. As things now are the amount of cobalt is being reduced in batteries, nickel is still a problem, but there is a lot of lithium all over the place.

Regards,

So an acknowledgement we aren't yet close to a 100% recycle economy.

So where are all the batteries in current BEVs, some presumably already a few years old, going to go in a few years time?

[BobbyD]

BobbyD
Money and a clean image work well together, but if you can only have one money will keep you solvent a lot longer than the respect of people who aren't buying your product.

So said the Slave Traders and every other industry that had bad practices and which has now fallen by the way side.

Regards,

...as they became uneconomical.

[BobbyD]

So an acknowledgement we aren't yet close to a 100% recycle economy.

So where are all the batteries in current BEVs, some presumably already a few years old, going to go in a few years time?

To people who want to extract the value from them. With growing demand for batteries, limited supply, and negligible yearly battery retirements used BEV batteries have real market value for repurposing or materials.

[dealtn]

So an acknowledgement we aren't yet close to a 100% recycle economy.

So where are all the batteries in current BEVs, some presumably already a few years old, going to go in a few years time?

To people who want to extract the value from them. With growing demand for batteries, limited supply, and negligible yearly battery retirements used BEV batteries have real market value for repurposing or materials.

Encouraging. My concerns were they would become "waste" (or landfill) like so much else. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the real world.

[BobbyD]

Two of the three best selling cars in Europe in December were VW's BEV's...

1. VW Golf 30,073
2. VW ID.3 27,997
3. Model 3 24,567

- https://insideevs.com/news/482435/europ ... mber-2020/

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
Money and a clean image work well together, but if you can only have one money will keep you solvent a lot longer than the respect of people who aren't buying your product.

So said the Slave Traders and every other industry that had bad practices and which has now fallen by the way side.

Regards,

...as they became uneconomical.

The slave trade was still very viable when Wilberforce ended it as seen by the compensation paid to the slave owners.

This was done by the UK in 1807, it took the US till 1865.

Regards,