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Bitcoin +30 Years

How to buy, profit and invest in crypto currencies or NFTs
moorfield
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Bitcoin +30 Years

#471457

Postby moorfield » January 8th, 2022, 8:39 pm

Will Bitcoin still be around in 30 years time and what price will it be? This is a question which fascinates me as I am contemplating a speculative very long term buy and hold on behalf of the moorfield juniors. Will they be thanking me in 30 years time? I wonder.

Urbandreamer
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#471469

Postby Urbandreamer » January 8th, 2022, 9:38 pm

Just my 2p or 6 e**-7 bitcoin worth.

If might be a bit early to say. It's only existed little more than a decade.
Personally I strongly suspect that it will have a value in 30 years. But the Euro is only 10 years older. Will that exist in 30 years?
What are the arguments for either?

There are however SERIOUS issues in buying bitcoin for moorfield juniors. Everyone is going to point to the guy who dropped his hard drive in his bin and lost millions. However it's a very valid point. Who keeps the bitcoin, where and how will it be passed on.

I have a really tiny amount with Paypal. It could be stolen. I intend eventually holding bitcoin myself (self sovereign). But how will my beneficiaries get it when I die. I don't expect to live forever.
That side of things is a minefield. Give it to the children and if they lose the key, it's gone. Keep it and, ignoring IHT issues, how do they get the keys. It's intentionally like cash (in a hole in the ground, somewhere).

Of course moorfield juniors may be more advanced than I read into your post. I would not hesitate to ask one of my kids if I could give her some bitcoin. The other two, mature though they are, I simply wouldn't. All three have unit trusts and two have equity ISA accounts that they manage.
If you can't ask and expect a sensible answer, then I would argue that bitcoin might be a bad idea, regardless of it's intrinsic merits.

Review the situation in a couple of years for them. In the meantime I strongly recommend learning as much about it as you can. I strongly recommend this book (which is cheap in ebook form).
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Basics-Bitco ... C72&sr=1-1

Of course it's out of date. Things are changing so fast. I listen to "what bitcoin did" podcast, which many might find irritating. However it helps take the pulse of things, though he is too much into football to be a kindred spirit.

Midsmartin
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#471477

Postby Midsmartin » January 8th, 2022, 10:10 pm

Obviously, nobody knows. There are hundreds of cryptocurrencies out there already. Over thirty years, surely there will be one, or several, with technical advantages over bitcoin. So the question then becomes whether people just slowly lose interest in bitcoin. So far momentum keeps it going. An Elon Musk type figure promoting a rival dogecoin-like rival (or Ethereum which seems popular), could perhaps be enough to dislodge it. Could it? I reckon that if another cryptocurrency caught up with bitcoin, it's fall could be rapid.

And.. What is the rate of loss of bitcoin from people forgetting passwords, dying without leaving details etc. Will this ever become significant itself?


Logistically, you can buy and store bitcoin on websites that are like stockbrokers to use. When you die, your executors need to know your account details and then proceed as with any other investment.

(I have 0.8 bitcoin, and have more or less decided to to hold on to it regardless. Unless it seems to be in terminal decline).

Urbandreamer
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#471485

Postby Urbandreamer » January 8th, 2022, 11:06 pm

Midsmartin wrote:Logistically, you can buy and store bitcoin on websites that are like stockbrokers to use. When you die, your executors need to know your account details and then proceed as with any other investment.


Indeed you can, and you hold more bitcoin than I. Today you seem to hold £24k worth.

However bitcoin and other cryptocurencies have been stolen from exchanges (MtGox) or custodians in the past. Indeed as I understand it a serious "fork" or currency split happened with Ethereum as a result of just such a theft. Bitcoin exponents would argue that once it's stolen, it's gone. The bulk of Ethereum decided different and reversed the transaction, hence creating two cryptocurrencies. It's an option if that is what you want. Just be aware that most Bitcoiners regard loss as your problem and not someone else's.

Ps, we shouldn't expect the £80k government support on bank accounts or the £50k government support on broker accounts. You are on your own with crypto currency. Hopefully the institution will have funds to cover any loss. It has been so (recently) in the past, some times. Oh, my holding is less than £200 if anyone is interested. I want more, but to be confident doing so. Hence the desire to hold it myself. More homework I fear.

1nvest
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#476733

Postby 1nvest » January 27th, 2022, 11:52 pm

All Btc transactions are recorded in a encrypted public ledger that with todays technology is secure, however with future technology may be easily/quickly de-crypted. Many are making copies of the ongoing ledger so when that time comes they'll be able to see historic transactions/activities. Time limited security/anonymity.

The "quantum apocalypse" is a great concern - somewhat similar to the millennium bug but with real and significant risks/consequences. With the rate of technological advances in quantum computers 30 years is a too distant future, even 10 years is pushing it IMO.

seekingbalance
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#476917

Postby seekingbalance » January 28th, 2022, 4:45 pm

Quantum computing may indeed end up being an issue, but my assumption is that where quantum code cracking is a thing, then also quantum security is another thing. Will not the security apparatus just get better in the same way the hacking will?

Still a problem, like now, but surely not a game changer?

ursaminortaur
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#476926

Postby ursaminortaur » January 28th, 2022, 5:26 pm

seekingbalance wrote:Quantum computing may indeed end up being an issue, but my assumption is that where quantum code cracking is a thing, then also quantum security is another thing. Will not the security apparatus just get better in the same way the hacking will?

Still a problem, like now, but surely not a game changer?


Quantum computers should indeed be able to break the cryptography used in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies but they will just as easily crack the cryptography used to secure all the commercial transactions carried out across the internet - https etc will no longer be secure. Hence quantum cryptography which can't be cracked using the quantum computers will necessarily have to be developed if we want to continue with online transactions and hence will also be available for use with cryptocurrencies.

BT63
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#477008

Postby BT63 » January 29th, 2022, 8:31 am

My suspicion is that in 20 - 30 years, today's cryptocurrencies will be the equivalent of Windows 95 in a world of Windows 11.

As time goes on, computing technology improves and flaws or incompatibilities are discovered in older technology so I expect every several years a new crypto breakthrough will occur, rendering older cryptos less desirable.

1nvest
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#477465

Postby 1nvest » January 31st, 2022, 11:27 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
seekingbalance wrote:Quantum computing may indeed end up being an issue, but my assumption is that where quantum code cracking is a thing, then also quantum security is another thing. Will not the security apparatus just get better in the same way the hacking will?

Still a problem, like now, but surely not a game changer?

Quantum computers should indeed be able to break the cryptography used in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies but they will just as easily crack the cryptography used to secure all the commercial transactions carried out across the internet - https etc will no longer be secure. Hence quantum cryptography which can't be cracked using the quantum computers will necessarily have to be developed if we want to continue with online transactions and hence will also be available for use with cryptocurrencies.

But the big difference is that with 'conventional' ledgers they're centrally controlled. Quantum-secure one-time-pads might be used for instance. With a distributed/shared ledger that isn't possible.

For financial transactions it may be a case of your bank supplies you with a TB of truly random data (pad) that is sequentially used by you/bank for communications/transactions encryption and as such is secure and where it updates the ledger centrally. Quantum apocalypse secure, moderately convenient in the sense that you have the inconvenience of having to physically get another TB of pad/data from your bank when you get near to 'running out', perhaps a USB type device plugged into a ATM type arrangement. For other non-financial/general internet/communications other methods might be used for convenience that are somewhat secure, better than pure open/clear text, but not appropriate for financial transactions.

1nvest
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#477469

Postby 1nvest » January 31st, 2022, 11:33 am

BT63 wrote:My suspicion is that in 20 - 30 years, today's cryptocurrencies will be the equivalent of Windows 95 in a world of Windows 11.

As time goes on, computing technology improves and flaws or incompatibilities are discovered in older technology so I expect every several years a new crypto breakthrough will occur, rendering older cryptos less desirable.

And there's widespread copying of existing Btc (blockchain) ledgers so that those copies will be openly readable at some point in the future when the historic encryption/secrecy used at the time becomes trivially cracked by advancements in technology. Some states may chase individuals for transactions that later become known to the state that were opined to be anonymous at the time and be used as the excuse to raid the individual and thereby further identify recent/ongoing transactions/activities.

ursaminortaur
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#477503

Postby ursaminortaur » January 31st, 2022, 12:53 pm

1nvest wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
seekingbalance wrote:Quantum computing may indeed end up being an issue, but my assumption is that where quantum code cracking is a thing, then also quantum security is another thing. Will not the security apparatus just get better in the same way the hacking will?

Still a problem, like now, but surely not a game changer?

Quantum computers should indeed be able to break the cryptography used in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies but they will just as easily crack the cryptography used to secure all the commercial transactions carried out across the internet - https etc will no longer be secure. Hence quantum cryptography which can't be cracked using the quantum computers will necessarily have to be developed if we want to continue with online transactions and hence will also be available for use with cryptocurrencies.

But the big difference is that with 'conventional' ledgers they're centrally controlled. Quantum-secure one-time-pads might be used for instance. With a distributed/shared ledger that isn't possible.

For financial transactions it may be a case of your bank supplies you with a TB of truly random data (pad) that is sequentially used by you/bank for communications/transactions encryption and as such is secure and where it updates the ledger centrally. Quantum apocalypse secure, moderately convenient in the sense that you have the inconvenience of having to physically get another TB of pad/data from your bank when you get near to 'running out', perhaps a USB type device plugged into a ATM type arrangement. For other non-financial/general internet/communications other methods might be used for convenience that are somewhat secure, better than pure open/clear text, but not appropriate for financial transactions.


There should be no need for the bank to supply you with a list of keys to use up in that manner. The one area of quantum cryptography which, at least theoretically *, will become 100% secure from eavesdropping is key distribution.

* I say theoretically since although quantum mechanics would prohibit someone intercepting the keys without detection there might still be physical implementation problems which a hacker could attack. Also the bank would still need to authenticate the user over the secure channel, setup with the quantum distributed key, once that channel had been setup using information it had about the user otherwise the hacker would just impersonate the bank user rather than intercepting the key.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_key_distribution

Quantum key distribution (QKD) is a secure communication method which implements a cryptographic protocol involving components of quantum mechanics. It enables two parties to produce a shared random secret key known only to them, which can then be used to encrypt and decrypt messages. It is often incorrectly called quantum cryptography, as it is the best-known example of a quantum cryptographic task.

An important and unique property of quantum key distribution is the ability of the two communicating users to detect the presence of any third party trying to gain knowledge of the key. This results from a fundamental aspect of quantum mechanics: the process of measuring a quantum system in general disturbs the system. A third party trying to eavesdrop on the key must in some way measure it, thus introducing detectable anomalies. By using quantum superpositions or quantum entanglement and transmitting information in quantum states, a communication system can be implemented that detects eavesdropping. If the level of eavesdropping is below a certain threshold, a key can be produced that is guaranteed to be secure (i.e., the eavesdropper has no information about it), otherwise no secure key is possible and communication is aborted.

The security of encryption that uses quantum key distribution relies on the foundations of quantum mechanics, in contrast to traditional public key cryptography, which relies on the computational difficulty of certain mathematical functions, and cannot provide any mathematical proof as to the actual complexity of reversing the one-way functions used. QKD has provable security based on information theory, and forward secrecy.

1nvest
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Re: Bitcoin +30 Years

#477638

Postby 1nvest » January 31st, 2022, 8:52 pm

The factor with one-time-pad of the same length as the clear-text is that all possible viable resolutions/combinations of the enciphered text still has you not knowing which is the actual valid version. Further analysis/detail might point to the most likely actual version(s), but with no 100% certainty. The pad must be truly random, and only ever used once, conveying a pad via a key distribution is paramount to using the pad more than once. For other key/data alternatives where the key is conveyed (used more than once), not truly random or is shorter than the clear-text message length, of all viable resolutions one is more inclined to stand out as the valid version (confirmation of the actual clear text version with 100% certainty).

The fundamental issue is that of comparing a secured/central ledger (conventional banking) against that of a distributed ledger (Btc) to which anyone might have clear text visibility.

If a major bank said it was doing away with its centralised transactions ledgers to instead use encrypted torrent versions that anyone with interest might obtain copies of the encrypted versions then that is putting 100% faith in existing encryption technologies that may very well become weak in the future enabling others to view historic clear-text transaction data, or be breached by other methods. If Btc were a bank its business model (distributed ledger) would be severely flawed and its projected future share price would be zero. Buying Btc is paramount to buying a share in that 'bank', a forward share (Btc) price expectancy of zero.

BTW Quantum entanglement is somewhat akin to one-time-pad, has to first be initiated at a single point in time/space and carried to separate time/space before use. Unless you believe in faster than light communications :)


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