The Lemon Fool

Nowt for me on 50K
8 x £25 for Mrs didds on 50K
Mini Didds £25 on circa £5K

1 x £25 on £50k holding today. Pathetic!

Bouleversee wrote:1 x £25 on £50k holding today. Pathetic!

same as me, but I get that most months

I sometimes get 2; otoh I sometimes get none.

Bouleversee wrote:1 x £25 on £50k holding today. Pathetic!

thats £25 more than me on the same holding!

2 x £25 on £30k holding after a zero last month.

Tricia

I bought £15k in October 2020, adding to my negligible holding of £301. Since then I've won £400, including £25 today. I reckon that's around 1.5% by a crude calculation, so slightly above average thus far, given rates have only recently gone up to the equivalent of 1.4%

The Mrs won £25 at beginning of August, on an investment of £1K made late last year. I guess that might well be it for a good few years now.

No major prizes paid to anyone in Shropshire. At all. Clearly rigged..

I've cashed in a large chunk. Now you can get 3.5% for a 1 year fixed savings, PBs don't seem great value.

Scott.

With 2.8% net paying the OH and myself for a 1 year fixed (may go up soon) this foregoes £2800 interest against an expectancy of around £1200 of prizes. £30 pw a lot to give up on the minute chance of a 'pay-out'.

T7

AleisterCrowley wrote:No major prizes paid to anyone in Shropshire. At all. Clearly rigged..

Perhaps we should all move to Shropshire next month.

Savers have been dealt a welcome boost today after National Savings & Investments (NS&I) announced a significant hike to the Premium Bond prize rate.

Starting from the next Premium Bond draw on 1 October, the rate will rise from 1.4% to 2.2% meaning savers will be in line to win many more high-value prizes.

For example, the total number of £100,000 prizes will jump from 10 to 18, while the £50,000 prize tally is set to rise from 20 to 35.

There will still only be two £1 million jackpots, however

Laughton wrote:Savers have been dealt a welcome boost today after National Savings & Investments (NS&I) announced a significant hike to the Premium Bond prize rate.

Starting from the next Premium Bond draw on 1 October, the rate will rise from 1.4% to 2.2% meaning savers will be in line to win many more high-value prizes.

For example, the total number of £100,000 prizes will jump from 10 to 18, while the £50,000 prize tally is set to rise from 20 to 35.

There will still only be two £1 million jackpots, however

Glad they haven't increased the million prizes - that always seemed a bit more "attract the lottery gamblers" tactic.

Personally I'd prefer to see no prizes over £10k, and a lot more around the £100-£500.

AleisterCrowley wrote:No major prizes paid to anyone in Shropshire. At all. Clearly rigged..

Hopefully they'll make up for it this month...

Paul (Shrewsbury)

I think the change to the £50 & £100 prizes will be significant to most people as the number of these prizes is increased by 19 times, but with a 27% reduction in £25. The total number of £25, £50 & £100 prizes is now slightly higher than previously.

.                      Sept     Oct

Higher value (5% of prize fund) 	
        £1 million 	2 	2
	£100,000 	10 	18
	£50,000 	20 	35
	£25,000 	39 	72
	£10,000 	98 	178
	£5,000 	       199 	357
Medium value (5% of prize fund)
 	£1,000 	    2,779 	4,364
	500 	    8,337      13,092
Lower value (90% of prize fund) 	
      £100 	  38,137 	728,737
	£50 	  38,137 	728,737
	£25 	  4,774,798 	3,484,716

Total prizes 	  4,862,556 	4,960,308

https://www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/monthly-prize-allocation

Ooooh! So all those £25 prizes we've won over the past few years will now become £50 or £100

Assuming our luck holds

A really useful point to remember is the change in the odds. From 24,500 to one to 24,000 to one, from next month.

This allows you to work out your likely return over the year.

XFool wrote:A really useful point to remember is the change in the odds. From 24,500 to one to 24,000 to one, from next month.

This allows you to work out your likely return over the year.

Surely all that matters is the % paid into the prize fund?

Spet0789 wrote:

XFool wrote:A really useful point to remember is the change in the odds. From 24,500 to one to 24,000 to one, from next month.

This allows you to work out your likely return over the year.

Surely all that matters is the % paid into the prize fund?

No.

Why? Because you don't (typically) expect to get a return that equals that rate of interest. The return a bond holder can expect to get in a given period - say one year - is very dependent on the number of bonds they hold. More bonds, a higher expected return in the period. Time held helps too. But so far, my original bond purchased in 1959 has returned zilch! Unsurprisingly.

XFool wrote:

Spet0789 wrote:

XFool wrote:A really useful point to remember is the change in the odds. From 24,500 to one to 24,000 to one, from next month.

This allows you to work out your likely return over the year.

Surely all that matters is the % paid into the prize fund?

No.

Why? Because you don't (typically) expect to get a return that equals that rate of interest. The return a bond holder can expect to get in a given period - say one year - is very dependent on the number of bonds they hold. More bonds, a higher expected return in the period. Time held helps too. But so far, my original bond purchased in 1959 has returned zilch! Unsurprisingly.

I think your use of language is a bit sloppy given we're talking about statistics here.

You are (I think) talking about your mode return. The mode return on £1000 of bonds is zero. I am talking about the mean return, or what a mathematically inclined person would call the expected return. The mean return is £1000 x the % prize fund. If we were to talk about the median return, it is a bit lower for a large holding than the % prize fund, owing to the small number of very large prizes.

It's meaningless to talk about return as anything other than % return. As such, your statement that if you have more bonds you have a higher expected return is a bit odd. It's either a statement of the obvious or wrong!