The Lemon Fool

Itsallaguess wrote:I prefer to have a quick look using the XLSX link, because I can then filter on my area without having to look through the whole web-based list, which can be a bit trickier.


Cheers,

Itsallaguess

DrFfybes wrote:Turns out that if you are a big winner, they also email you and send a text.

pje16 wrote:I dont get a text
the email comes several days after the 2nd working day

swill453 wrote:I think you may be talking about minor prizes
Scott.

pje16 wrote:If it's not an email do they knock at your door and play a fanfare

Itsallaguess wrote:April 2022 High Value Winners list -
Web link - https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker/winners
XLSX file link - https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/xlsx ... -2022.xlsx
I prefer to have a quick look using the XLSX link, because I can then filter on my area without having to look through the whole web-based list, which can be a bit trickier.
Lower value winners can find out tomorrow (Saturday 2nd April) using this link - https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker
Cheers,
Itsallaguess

AleisterCrowley wrote:Good to see that a £30 bond in Norfolk bought in 1971 paid out £1k (part of a £31 total holding..)
Purely based on this prize that's a 7.3% annualised return (if my rapid calculation is correct)
Obviously it may have won other prizes along the way...

AleisterCrowley wrote:That xls link posted above, which goes down to £1,000 level (repeated below)

OldPlodder wrote:I have been analysing my pattern of winnings for a while, and a very serious discrepancy is emerging.

I can prove beyond reasonable doubt that something is wrong.

I have a £20K BLOCK purchased in one go in August 1994. Basically, since the £20K limit was increased all these years ago, I have reinvested the winnings. As the percentage of these new bonds has increased as a proportion of my bonds, winnings from these new bonds have gradually increased, as expected. BUT from around December 2013, the percentage ceased to increase altogther. In fact since that date, only ONE of the many thousands of new bonds has won, which is beyond belief, considering that my broad overall pattern of winnings with the original £20k BLOCK is statistically OK.

On top of this, I added a good chunk in April 21, £12,350. The same month my wife added £10K. So far, my wife new bonds have won 6 times already, broadly as statistically expected, mine ZERO/ZILCH/NADA. This looks a little more than weird too, although it is early days on that bit.

My wife also has done WAY WAY better, consistently so, than me for decades despite the fact that for the majority of the time I held many thousands more bonds than her. No wonder if something is wrong.

If I assume that ERNIE is properly random ( this bit must after all be audited to death), my conclusion is that a whole lot of my bonds have never been entered in the draw through some admin glitch.

I am seriously considering presenting the whole data to NS&I, probably through a complaints procedure, but await a few comments first.

Plodder

PS I have advanced Maths and Stats knowledge (to Doctorate level and beyond).

XFool wrote:

OldPlodder wrote:I have been analysing my pattern of winnings for a while, and a very serious discrepancy is emerging.

I can prove beyond reasonable doubt that something is wrong.

I have a £20K BLOCK purchased in one go in August 1994. Basically, since the £20K limit was increased all these years ago, I have reinvested the winnings. As the percentage of these new bonds has increased as a proportion of my bonds, winnings from these new bonds have gradually increased, as expected. BUT from around December 2013, the percentage ceased to increase altogther. In fact since that date, only ONE of the many thousands of new bonds has won, which is beyond belief, considering that my broad overall pattern of winnings with the original £20k BLOCK is statistically OK.

On top of this, I added a good chunk in April 21, £12,350. The same month my wife added £10K. So far, my wife new bonds have won 6 times already, broadly as statistically expected, mine ZERO/ZILCH/NADA. This looks a little more than weird too, although it is early days on that bit.

My wife also has done WAY WAY better, consistently so, than me for decades despite the fact that for the majority of the time I held many thousands more bonds than her. No wonder if something is wrong.

If I assume that ERNIE is properly random ( this bit must after all be audited to death), my conclusion is that a whole lot of my bonds have never been entered in the draw through some admin glitch.

I am seriously considering presenting the whole data to NS&I, probably through a complaints procedure, but await a few comments first.

Plodder

PS I have advanced Maths and Stats knowledge (to Doctorate level and beyond).

Any follow-up on this?

Gersemi wrote:

XFool wrote:Any follow-up on this?

From this I infer that the eligible bond numbers are not entered into the draw as such. Rather random number combinations are generated and then they check to see if they match any existing eligible bond numbers. I suppose that OldPlodder's newer numbers could somehow be missed off the database that they check. However I would think that this is generated from the records of people's bond holdings. So as long as the bond numbers are correctly registered to the bondholder then they would come up as a match if this number was generated.

OldPlodder wrote:I got such a crass reply from my very detailed submission to NS&I that I just sold the lot in disgust, used a part of that money for my wife to top up to a full £50k( there has never been a problem with hers, in fact she wins a litte better that the theory predicts on average). Given the rest of the money to the children. Problem fully solved providing I live another 7 years.

Plodder

NS&I even managed to make a mess of paying my bonds money in my bank account( I have had that account for 37 years and according to them the bank had never heard of me!) and it took them weeks to issue a correct cheque! They did however send me another £30 compensation for messing that bit up.