Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Wasron,jfgw,Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly, for Donating to support the site

Premium Bonds

Discussing offers, rates and deals on suppliers
XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470325

Postby XFool » January 5th, 2022, 12:04 am

Lootman wrote:
chas49 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Which tells us nothing about any tweaks to the randomness of the draw.

Unless of course you have some kind of inside knowledge.

From the NS&I link given by XFool:

The test of proving that ERNIE’s outputs are robust has long been discussed by experts in the field of randomness.
...
ERNIE has never failed to be anything but random in every test carried out by GAD.

But if that ceased to be true at any point, then how would anyone know? It's not like the code is in the public domain.

Because there is no "code" - in generating the numbers. A fundamental principle of random number generators used for lotteries, such as ERNIE, is that they are physical generators of random numbers, not computer algorithms which are pseudo-random.

Lootman wrote:It is not an open and public process like, say, the national lottery. It is done in secret behind closed doors and so requires faith.

No more "faith" required than with the national lottery. How do you know that isn't "fixed" somehow? The results can be looked at in the same way as with ERNIE. As described above, the government actuary checks the ERNIE generated figures for randomness - that's more than good enough for me, along with its physical nature.

https://www.idquantique.com/random-number-generation/overview/

And before you ask, no, I can't "prove" this company isn't a front for the CIA, Mossad or the Vatican (or all three). Again, to what end? Do you have actual evidence of politicians winning the jackpot or high prizes too frequently?

Lootman wrote:If you are asking whether I trust politicians to maintain the integrity that was clearly intended for ERNIE then I might share that good faith gesture. But I do not see how anyone here can prove the matter either way without a reference to third parties.

Oh well, then nobody can demonstrate or "prove" anything. So what does anything matter?

I guess the Earth could be flat and it's turtles all the way down...

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18941
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 636 times
Been thanked: 6679 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470327

Postby Lootman » January 5th, 2022, 12:07 am

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:It is not an open and public process like, say, the national lottery. It is done in secret behind closed doors and so requires faith.

No more "faith" required than with the national lottery. How do you know that isn't "fixed" somehow? The results can be looked at in the same way as with ERNIE.

OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470329

Postby XFool » January 5th, 2022, 12:09 am

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:It is not an open and public process like, say, the national lottery. It is done in secret behind closed doors and so requires faith.

No more "faith" required than with the national lottery. How do you know that isn't "fixed" somehow? The results can be looked at in the same way as with ERNIE.

OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

No. We agree no such thing.

As usual, this is going nowhere, has nowhere useful to go and is nothing more than a waste of time...

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18941
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 636 times
Been thanked: 6679 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470330

Postby Lootman » January 5th, 2022, 12:11 am

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:No more "faith" required than with the national lottery. How do you know that isn't "fixed" somehow? The results can be looked at in the same way as with ERNIE.

OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

No.

Since you cannot prove the fidelity of ERNIE than you should at least retain an open mind.

As for being a "waste of time", given the inevitably of you always replying, I sense you have plenty of it to waste.

swill453
Lemon Half
Posts: 7989
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:11 pm
Has thanked: 990 times
Been thanked: 3659 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470332

Postby swill453 » January 5th, 2022, 12:12 am

To get back on topic - the results are in for January.

£25 from two full holdings, woohoo!

Scott.

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2574
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 552 times
Been thanked: 1212 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470333

Postby vrdiver » January 5th, 2022, 12:12 am

Lootman wrote:OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

Faith in what though? I'd put a fair amount of "faith" in the risk/reward ratios being in favour of not duping Joe Public (as the backlash if it ever came to light would be catastrophic for the government and institutions involved, creating somewhat of a crisis of confidence in any government institution or financial product).

Of course, those in control might take a different point of view, so "faith" it is...

VRD

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18941
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 636 times
Been thanked: 6679 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470334

Postby Lootman » January 5th, 2022, 12:14 am

vrdiver wrote:
Lootman wrote:OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

Faith in what though? I'd put a fair amount of "faith" in the risk/reward ratios being in favour of not duping Joe Public (as the backlash if it ever came to light would be catastrophic for the government and institutions involved, creating somewhat of a crisis of confidence in any government institution or financial product).

Of course, those in control might take a different point of view, so "faith" it is...

Yes, the point is not so much that it is likely but rather that there is quite simply no way to independently verify it, and so faith rather than certainty is the more prudent approach.

vrdiver
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2574
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 2:22 am
Has thanked: 552 times
Been thanked: 1212 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470337

Postby vrdiver » January 5th, 2022, 12:17 am

swill453 wrote:To get back on topic - the results are in for January.

£25 from two full holdings, woohoo!

Scott.

Thanks for the reminder (didn't realise they would make them available from midnight - was expecting it for "office hours" for some reason!).

Anyhows - 4 x £25 from just under one full holding - 2022 off to a good start :)

VRD

torata
Lemon Slice
Posts: 524
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 1:25 am
Has thanked: 207 times
Been thanked: 212 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470338

Postby torata » January 5th, 2022, 12:19 am

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:OK, then we agree that the fidelity of ERNIE cannot be proven. It is a faith-based lottery whose integrity is subject to the whims of our political masters.

No.

Since you cannot prove the fidelity of ERNIE than you should at least retain an open mind.

As for being a "waste of time", given the inevitably of you always replying, I sense you have plenty of it to waste.


You, however, can prove to yourself the fidelity (or lack of) of ERNIE.
The full results are publicly available (at least for the previous 6 months): https://www.nsandi.com/get-to-know-us/winning-bonds-downloads
So you can perform your own proof of randomness tests.

torata

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18941
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 636 times
Been thanked: 6679 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470340

Postby Lootman » January 5th, 2022, 12:21 am

torata wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:No.

Since you cannot prove the fidelity of ERNIE than you should at least retain an open mind.

As for being a "waste of time", given the inevitably of you always replying, I sense you have plenty of it to waste.

You, however, can prove to yourself the fidelity (or lack of) of ERNIE.

No, I never said that. I merely stated that nobody can prove anything so we just have to trust.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4654
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 903 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470363

Postby Bouleversee » January 5th, 2022, 6:59 am

1 x £25. I don't think I'll be opening any champers

pje16
Lemon Half
Posts: 6050
Joined: May 30th, 2021, 6:01 pm
Has thanked: 1843 times
Been thanked: 2067 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470374

Postby pje16 » January 5th, 2022, 8:41 am

I'll raise that
2 x £25
Corkscrew ready
who's going to come along and open it :lol:

DrFfybes
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3789
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:25 pm
Has thanked: 1196 times
Been thanked: 1984 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470390

Postby DrFfybes » January 5th, 2022, 9:09 am

XFool wrote:
If you think about it, that "newer bonds win more often" is about as surprising as the fact that "things always fall down" *

[...]

* Yes they do! Mainly because "down" is defined as the direction in which things fall...


Very easy to trip yourself up with a metaphor

;)

Paul

staffordian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2300
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 4:20 pm
Has thanked: 1899 times
Been thanked: 870 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470392

Postby staffordian » January 5th, 2022, 9:17 am

£25 from a holding of £15.4k. That makes £150 since May 2021.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4654
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 903 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470412

Postby Bouleversee » January 5th, 2022, 10:14 am

Is that when you bought your bonds?

AleisterCrowley
Lemon Half
Posts: 6385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:35 am
Has thanked: 1882 times
Been thanked: 2026 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470417

Postby AleisterCrowley » January 5th, 2022, 10:31 am

2021 was my best ever year, due to a unprecedented £500 win in July - c 4.4% return on £12,900 holding at the start of the year
Records since 2014 - just to illustrate the noisiness of the return even with a 'moderate' holding i.e. not a £100 bond in a drawer , bought in 1968
year RoY
2014: 1.28%
2015: 1.68%
2016: 0.83%
2017: 1.43%
2018: 2.02%
2019: 1.98%
2020: 0.58%
2021: 4.44%

Starting 2022 with c£13,500
Happy New Year to all ! :) Good luck.

didds
Lemon Half
Posts: 5311
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:04 pm
Has thanked: 3296 times
Been thanked: 1034 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470421

Postby didds » January 5th, 2022, 10:42 am

5 x 25 between me and Mrs Didds with 2 x max holdings this month.

"mini" didds now has a 5K holding, but nowt for her.

didds

staffordian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2300
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 4:20 pm
Has thanked: 1899 times
Been thanked: 870 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470428

Postby staffordian » January 5th, 2022, 11:09 am

Bouleversee wrote:Is that when you bought your bonds?

I held a negligible amount until October 2020 when I bought £15k.

Padders72
Lemon Slice
Posts: 325
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:53 pm
Has thanked: 128 times
Been thanked: 181 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470440

Postby Padders72 » January 5th, 2022, 11:32 am

Having had a very poor return on my 2021 holding (was £25K until Nov then £49K) I have awoken this morning to see that I have won 2 x £25 and a whopping £1K prize. £1,050 total!

Not too shabby you will agree and it more than makes up for my 0.2% return on last year. Reversion to the mean it seems has prevailed.

ps I have added Lootman to my mental ignore list. If it is a conspriracy, then clearly I am part of it.

DrFfybes
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3789
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:25 pm
Has thanked: 1196 times
Been thanked: 1984 times

Re: Premium Bonds

#470443

Postby DrFfybes » January 5th, 2022, 11:46 am

1 x £25 on 2 x £50k.

I think Padders has had our win this month.


Return to “Bank Accounts Savings & ISAs”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests