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London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

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johnjp
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London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434664

Postby johnjp » August 13th, 2021, 11:27 pm

Hi
Have a property close in Canary Wharf and Royal Victoria Docks in London .
I see the latest flood prediction saying these areas will be flooded within 10 years, just wondering if anyone else concerned about this?

MrFoolish
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434841

Postby MrFoolish » August 15th, 2021, 8:27 am

I'd be concerned if I lived in such a place. Why not get out whilst the prices are still good?

Lootman
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434842

Postby Lootman » August 15th, 2021, 8:34 am

MrFoolish wrote:I'd be concerned if I lived in such a place. Why not get out whilst the prices are still good?

In 1977 I was trying to buy my first home in London. I found the house I wanted and my offer was accepted. The lender refused to grant a mortgage on the house because they said it was "too close to the river" and therefore subject to flood risk.

44 years later the house is still there and new housing has been built even closer to the river. It is now worth 25 times my offer price.

MrFoolish
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434843

Postby MrFoolish » August 15th, 2021, 8:44 am

Lootman wrote:
MrFoolish wrote:I'd be concerned if I lived in such a place. Why not get out whilst the prices are still good?

In 1977 I was trying to buy my first home in London. I found the house I wanted and my offer was accepted. The lender refused to grant a mortgage on the house because they said it was "too close to the river" and therefore subject to flood risk.

44 years later the house is still there and new housing has been built even closer to the river. It is now worth 25 times my offer price.


The Thames Barrier opened 1984. I expect that bought some time. But it's the future that matters, not the past. The weather trends are not looking good.

As for house prices, with working from home likely to remain a thing, I can only see this depressing London house prices. Why not live somewhere with more space and less pollution for less money?

GrahamPlatt
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434847

Postby GrahamPlatt » August 15th, 2021, 9:16 am


Urbandreamer
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434858

Postby Urbandreamer » August 15th, 2021, 10:58 am

johnjp wrote:Hi
Have a property close in Canary Wharf and Royal Victoria Docks in London .
I see the latest flood prediction saying these areas will be flooded within 10 years, just wondering if anyone else concerned about this?


Isn't it already underwater? The R4 program more-or-less covered flood maps back in June (along with a lot about Covid numbers FFW to 6 min).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09mx1lw

I was serious about you being underwater BTW. As has been pointed out in this thread flood defences like the Thames Barrier may explain why you are not. The program explained that many of these flood maps use a "bath tub" model. Such maps ignore the effects of flood defences outside of the USA.

I'm not worried about flooding as I thought about it when looking for my current house.

Alaric
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#434859

Postby Alaric » August 15th, 2021, 11:04 am

johnjp wrote:Have a property close in Canary Wharf and Royal Victoria Docks in London .
I see the latest flood prediction saying these areas will be flooded within 10 years, just wondering if anyone else concerned about this?


The Thames is a tidal river, so there's a periodic risk from exceptionally high tides perhaps combined with adverse weather. The Thames barrier and other precautions like river walls are designed to cope with these. If sea levels are higher, the risk is going to be that they won't cope with the highest tide surges. Areas aren't going to be permanently under water.

johnjp
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#435016

Postby johnjp » August 16th, 2021, 3:56 am

Hi All, Thanks! very much for your replies on this topic

88V8
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#435089

Postby 88V8 » August 16th, 2021, 11:08 am

Alaric wrote:The Thames is a tidal river, so there's a periodic risk from exceptionally high tides perhaps combined with adverse weather. The Thames barrier and other precautions like river walls are designed to cope with these. If sea levels are higher, the risk is going to be that they won't cope with the highest tide surges. Areas aren't going to be permanently under water.

Where we lived in Middlesex, maybe a mile from the Thames, a neighbour twenty years ago was refused permission to build a house in his garden for his son, on the grounds of flood risk. Now, caving in to the developers, lo and behold a house, and two large houses where the neighbour's modest bungalow stood.

That and other 'at risk' areas will not be permanently flooded, no, not for a few decades.
But when areas have been flooded once, values will plummet.

And in London, the flood walls along The Embankment will not go on being raised as it would ruin the views.

The whole flood thing is when rather than if, but no doubt govt and indeed most people will be in denial until it actually happens.
So far about all we have in the way of coherent response is 'managed retreat' when it is decided not to maintain or enhance coastal defences, and that is really arranging the deckchairs compared to what we have coming at us eventually.
Eventually.
And it's eventually that brings the usual problem of politicians faced with no easy/popular solutions and a five year tenure.

V8

AleisterCrowley
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#435093

Postby AleisterCrowley » August 16th, 2021, 11:23 am

I have used this EA tool
https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/
I'm on the very edge of a pale blue zone (2) so not too worried!

1nvest
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#436122

Postby 1nvest » August 20th, 2021, 2:42 am

AleisterCrowley wrote:I have used this EA tool
https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/
I'm on the very edge of a pale blue zone (2) so not too worried!

Thanks

Flood Zone 1 here (safe), and we live at the top of a hill so if water lapped through our doorstep the houses at the bottom of the road would be fully submerged.

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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#436125

Postby 1nvest » August 20th, 2021, 3:03 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:Useful tool - https://www.floodmap.net/

Thanks. For us a 30m rise would have us with a sea-view according to that tool, so a while before a loft room boat house anchorage being needed.

Mike4
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Re: London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater within 10 years

#436128

Postby Mike4 » August 20th, 2021, 6:18 am

Lootman wrote:
MrFoolish wrote:I'd be concerned if I lived in such a place. Why not get out whilst the prices are still good?

In 1977 I was trying to buy my first home in London. I found the house I wanted and my offer was accepted. The lender refused to grant a mortgage on the house because they said it was "too close to the river" and therefore subject to flood risk.

44 years later the house is still there and new housing has been built even closer to the river. It is now worth 25 times my offer price.


I think we all have one that really hurts.

Mine was my first attempted house purchase too. A cute little Victorian terraced house in Englefield Green we were trying to buy for £5,000 back in 1976. Our chosen building society (back in the days of mortgage famines) manager called us into his office to discuss our mortgage application. He explained that Victorian terraces were built to very poor standards and would only ever go down in value, and therefore he was not willing to grant us a mortgage. Go and find something newer.

I drove past it about a year ago and there was a For Sale board outside. I looked it up and the asking price was £350k, a 70-fold increase in value.


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