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Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

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GeoffF100
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Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425093

Postby GeoffF100 » July 5th, 2021, 9:29 pm

An excellent article from the Monevator:

https://monevator.com/comparing-the-cos ... ownership/

I thought that electric cars were expensive toys for green warriors (or perhaps green washers). Perhaps I was wrong.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425111

Postby JohnB » July 5th, 2021, 11:35 pm

Its unusual to have price comparisons done on used cars, because competent BEVs are so new. New BEVs have a big premium at the moment, so it needs aggressive depreciation to get them to parity so quickly. But part of that is because BEVs are improving so fast that early models are just less attractive. Its predicted that IC/BEV price parity might occur in 5 years, and TCO much sooner because of reduced servicing and fuel costs, and it looks like they last longer. Manufacturers are seen the IC bans looming, so are unlikely to be designing new models, but if you are a used car buyer, that concern is a long way off, as you might be buying a car in 7 years time that rolled off a closing production line 4 years hence.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425134

Postby GeoffF100 » July 6th, 2021, 7:54 am

JohnB wrote:Its unusual to have price comparisons done on used cars, because competent BEVs are so new. New BEVs have a big premium at the moment, so it needs aggressive depreciation to get them to parity so quickly. But part of that is because BEVs are improving so fast that early models are just less attractive. Its predicted that IC/BEV price parity might occur in 5 years, and TCO much sooner because of reduced servicing and fuel costs, and it looks like they last longer. Manufacturers are seen the IC bans looming, so are unlikely to be designing new models, but if you are a used car buyer, that concern is a long way off, as you might be buying a car in 7 years time that rolled off a closing production line 4 years hence.

I was completely baffled by this post. With Google's help, I think I have managed to crack the code. BEV = battery electric vehicle. IC = internal combustion. TCO = total cost of ownership. If the article is correct, electric vehicles are facing aggressive depreciation in the first few years. The three year old ones are capable for many. They get from A to B. They also appear to do it more cheaply than a similar sized internal combustion car. Nonetheless, these are huge cars. Smaller electric cars are only now making it onto the market.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425137

Postby nmdhqbc » July 6th, 2021, 8:12 am

GeoffF100 wrote:If the article is correct, electric vehicles are facing aggressive depreciation in the first few years. The three year old ones are capable for many. They get from A to B.


That in 2017 Nissan Leafs had much less range than newer EV's (Electric Vehicles) and some other 2017 models. I just had a quick look on autotrader and a 2017 Hyundai Ioniq with WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure) range of about 174 miles vs Leaf's 80 mentioned in the article. Real world range is normally lower than WLTP. They start at about £17k vs Leaf £9k for a 2017 model. But then the new price was probably higher. So predicting that a new today EV would depreciate a lot based on this probably depends on how obsolete current EV specs (specifications) are made by EV's in 3 years time. My guess - the difference in range would probably not be as massive but who knows. I can't be bothered looking up data on it but i keep hearing folks who follow this stuff on YouTube say EV's (Electric Vehicles) depreciate less than ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars on the whole. It's just that really low range ones from yesteryear get priced according to their functionality.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425210

Postby Mike88 » July 6th, 2021, 12:09 pm

I trust servicing will cost less than that on my BMW which for its first service involving an oil change and pollen filter for the bargain price of £310. Perhaps I will go electric next time or first check the servicing costs before I buy.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425494

Postby AF62 » July 7th, 2021, 11:20 am

In the comparison of EV second-hand prices and ICE in the Monevator article, the author has fallen for the trap of misleading information from the second-hand car dealers, either to sucker people in or because lots of second-hand car dealers know damn all about EVs.

Back in 2017 Nissan Leaf cars came with batteries which were either leased, where you had to make a monthly payment for as long as you owned the car, and then any subsequent owners had to make that monthly payment, or as 'battery owned' where you bought the battery with the car (Renault did the same with the Zoe at the time).

Whenever you see a used Nissan Leaf (or Renault Zoe) which doesn't say 'battery owned' in the advert then it will almost certainly be a leased battery that will cost you £40-50 month whilst you own the car (the lease cost depends on your mileage).

None of the £9k 2017 Nissan Leaf cars on Autotrader say 'battery owned' so they will all be battery leases, and the 'battery owned' examples are all around £3k more expensive at £12k - you can buy out the battery lease, but it costs about £3k+.

But turning to whether an EV can be cheaper than an ICE from my own experience.

Back at the beginning of April this year I leased a new fully electric Renault Zoe to use as a 'practical' second car for short journeys, to go shopping, to the gym, to the cinema, to town, and the occasional longer journey to see relatives when I wanted to use a five seat car.

The lease on the Zoe was £2,800 a year not including maintenance, but Renault offer a service plan at £100 a year.

At the end of the first three months we have driven 2000 miles (we had estimated 8k per year) which has cost £15 on filling up with electricity at home, which is low as there are plenty of free chargers in the area; free at the supermarket, the cinema, the shopping centre, etc. which we make use of if we are going to be there anyway. However if I had needed to pay for that free electricity that would only have cost another £12.50. There is no road tax to pay on the car. Also the largest nearby town allows free parking for EVs in all its car parks without any time limits.

I did choose to pay for the install of an electric charging point at home even though with the prevalence of public chargers I could probably have got away with not doing so. This cost £500 after the grant and I would expect the charger to last at least five years, so £100 a year.

Thus I expect the total cost of ownership of the Zoe to do 8k miles a year to be a fraction over £3,000 a year.

In comparison using a petrol car, then as most of our journeys are short (3 miles or less) and thus fuel inefficient, at best those 2000 miles would have cost £350 rather than £15, so extrapolating up for the year that would be a fuel cost of £1400 for fuel. In addition there would be road tax of at least £150, the difference in the cost of servicing - guestimate at least £50, plus the lease includes breakdown cover so another £50 to buy that, and perhaps a saving of another £50 in parking. So just to run the petrol car without paying for depreciation it would be £1,700.

Thus to be comparable with the £3,000 annual cost of the Zoe, I would need to hope that an equivalent petrol car depreciated less than £1,300 a year. Now I am sure I could buy a second hand petrol car and run it for two years and only suffer around that in depreciation, but I know for certain that there is now way I could buy a new or even pre-reg petrol car of an equivalent specification and only lose a that amount over two years.

Turning to usability, the Zoe claims a WLTP range of 245 miles, but in reality it is 210-220 miles in warm weather when driven at 30mph around town, but in the cooler weather in April it was down to around 180-190. Drive it on the motorway at 70 mph and the range falls away from the 210-220 range to around 180-190.

That is fine for us, as averaging just over 150 miles a week means it doesn't need charging it up more than once a week at home, or topping up whenever we are going to be parked at a free charger for an hour or more. On the couple of longer 200 mile journeys done so far, on both occasions we simply stopped for a break at the 100 mile point for 40 minutes or so, and that was sufficient to ensure we would not be on fumes at the end.

Going back to the Monevator article, in a 22kW Nissan Leaf you will be getting a real world range of between 75 to 85 miles. Although that might be suitable for some, it really does restrict the car to use for quite local journeys, and I would be nervous on doing, say, a 40 mile journey to a nearby town and relying on there being a charger to use to get back. Therefore I am not sure it is a fair comparison between a 22kW Nissan Leaf and a petrol Ford Focus, but do the same in 5 years time between say a five year old second hand 52kW Renault Zoe like I have and I consider it more reasonable comparison.

So in summary, is an EV cheaper - yes it can be, but only if you compare 'like for like' as obviously comparing a new EV with a five year old ICE won't work.

However the key reason for this is that at the moment fuel for EVs isn't taxed, which undoubtedly will not last forever.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425536

Postby GeoffF100 » July 7th, 2021, 12:34 pm

That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425575

Postby AF62 » July 7th, 2021, 3:15 pm

GeoffF100 wrote:That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.


But how much does fuel cost you in the Aygo - petrol isn't cheap these days. When I had an elderly Ford Focus 'shed' to drive to the station and abandon on a street somewhere, then on winter mornings I was struggling to get to 25mpg for the three mile drive.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425654

Postby GeoffF100 » July 7th, 2021, 7:02 pm

AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.

But how much does fuel cost you in the Aygo - petrol isn't cheap these days. When I had an elderly Ford Focus 'shed' to drive to the station and abandon on a street somewhere, then on winter mornings I was struggling to get to 25mpg for the three mile drive.

The Aygo is very fuel efficient if you drive it economically, despite my car being an automatic (actually an automated manual). I have driven from West Yorkshire to Essex on about £16 of petrol, at an indicated 60 mph (but I do not slipstream lorries). I mostly use my car to go walking and for the occasional shopping trip. I typically fill up with about £35 worth of petrol about once every two months.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425663

Postby AF62 » July 7th, 2021, 7:30 pm

GeoffF100 wrote:
AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.

But how much does fuel cost you in the Aygo - petrol isn't cheap these days. When I had an elderly Ford Focus 'shed' to drive to the station and abandon on a street somewhere, then on winter mornings I was struggling to get to 25mpg for the three mile drive.

The Aygo is very fuel efficient if you drive it economically, despite my car being an automatic (actually an automated manual). I have driven from West Yorkshire to Essex on about £16 of petrol, at an indicated 60 mph (but I do not slipstream lorries). I mostly use my car to go walking and for the occasional shopping trip. I typically fill up with about £35 worth of petrol about once every two months.


But your use is almost the opposite use to mine! Which is part of the reason why I decided on an electric car.

But that is back to the apples and oranges again - What mpg would the Aygo return if 95% of your journeys were one, two, or three miles from cold.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425671

Postby GeoffF100 » July 7th, 2021, 7:55 pm

AF62 wrote:But that is back to the apples and oranges again - What mpg would the Aygo return if 95% of your journeys were one, two, or three miles from cold.

Clearly, it would not be as good. The cold engine would be less efficient, and there would be no regenerative braking. You can compensate partly for the latter by taking your foot off the accelerator well before stopping. A hybrid is better in theory, but they are all bigger cars. One, two, or three miles? Bicycle perhaps, or a plug in hybrid if that is not practicable. Clearly, the optimal solution depends on your use case.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425693

Postby AF62 » July 7th, 2021, 9:39 pm

GeoffF100 wrote:Bicycle perhaps


:lol: Clearly you haven't met the decision maker in my household to suggest that!

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425710

Postby Mike4 » July 7th, 2021, 10:37 pm

AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:Bicycle perhaps


:lol: Clearly you haven't met the decision maker in my household to suggest that!


Electric bike, I expect Geoff meant!

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425717

Postby Spet0789 » July 7th, 2021, 11:10 pm

AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.


But how much does fuel cost you in the Aygo - petrol isn't cheap these days. When I had an elderly Ford Focus 'shed' to drive to the station and abandon on a street somewhere, then on winter mornings I was struggling to get to 25mpg for the three mile drive.


25mpg on a three mile drive… the horror. That will have cost you all of 70p.

For context, 9,000 miles at 50mpg costs about £1k. At 25mpg, £2k.

Set against the upfront costs of buying electric, these costs are pretty small.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425744

Postby AF62 » July 8th, 2021, 6:46 am

Mike4 wrote:
AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:Bicycle perhaps


:lol: Clearly you haven't met the decision maker in my household to suggest that!


Electric bike, I expect Geoff meant!


Again :lol: if you think I am brave enough to suggest that.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425745

Postby AF62 » July 8th, 2021, 6:57 am

Spet0789 wrote:
AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:That is very informative AF62. I bought my Aygo as a 1 year old for £6,000 with 6,000 miles on the clock. After 18 years, that will be £333 per annum depreciation, assuming that the car is worthless at the end. Zero road tax for the manual, £20 for the MMT, which has slightly higher CO2 emissions.


But how much does fuel cost you in the Aygo - petrol isn't cheap these days. When I had an elderly Ford Focus 'shed' to drive to the station and abandon on a street somewhere, then on winter mornings I was struggling to get to 25mpg for the three mile drive.


25mpg on a three mile drive… the horror. That will have cost you all of 70p.

For context, 9,000 miles at 50mpg costs about £1k. At 25mpg, £2k.

Set against the upfront costs of buying electric, these costs are pretty small.


70p vs 3p for electric (if I was paying for all the electricity, which I am not), and so over the year doing 90% of 8,000 miles as short trips is £1,700 vs £72. That is a pretty big difference.

There was no upfront cost of buying the electric car as it is leased, and the price of the lease means the total cost of ownership is lower than for an equivalent petrol car (whether buying or leasing it).

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425749

Postby Dod101 » July 8th, 2021, 7:07 am

GeoffF100 wrote: I mostly use my car to go walking and for the occasional shopping trip. I typically fill up with about £35 worth of petrol about once every two months.


This is a weird thread but if GeoffF100 will forgive me, I usually use my legs to go walking. I have given up most of the rest of it as I have no idea what it is all about.

Dod

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425757

Postby GeoffF100 » July 8th, 2021, 7:38 am

Mike4 wrote:
AF62 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:Bicycle perhaps

:lol: Clearly you haven't met the decision maker in my household to suggest that!

Electric bike, I expect Geoff meant!

I had factored in the health benefits of pedalling. What price per year do you place on good health?

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425759

Postby GeoffF100 » July 8th, 2021, 7:42 am

Dod101 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote: I mostly use my car to go walking and for the occasional shopping trip. I typically fill up with about £35 worth of petrol about once every two months.

This is a weird thread but if GeoffF100 will forgive me, I usually use my legs to go walking.

The clue was that I live in West Yorkshire. There are lots of great places to go walking in and around West Yorkshire, but you need a car to get there.

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Re: Electric Cars Can be Cheaper

#425761

Postby Dod101 » July 8th, 2021, 7:47 am

GeoffF100 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote: I mostly use my car to go walking and for the occasional shopping trip. I typically fill up with about £35 worth of petrol about once every two months.

This is a weird thread but if GeoffF100 will forgive me, I usually use my legs to go walking.

The clue was that I live in West Yorkshire. There are lots of great places to go walking in and around West Yorkshire, but you need a car to get there.


I just couldn't resist.I am very fortunate that I can open my front door and go.

I do not really understand the general narrative on electric cars.

Dod


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