Royal Mail death spiral

[JohnB]

Royal Mail announce their new prices at https://www.royalmail.com/prices2024

If bought at a counter, huge rises since last April
small first £1.35 22%
large first £2.10 31%
small second £0.85 13%
large second £1.55 35%

The Royal Mail are clearly in a death spiral, as everyone flees their letter service, and they have many rivals in the parcel space.

Letter volumes have fallen from 20bn to 7bn. I wonder how much further they can fall. Companies hate posting letters, clubs are offering PDF or postal memberships, and I expect the market for those wanting paper newsletters is dying off fast.

And after the barcode swapout last year, I bet everyone has got piles of stamps, so there will be very little consumer revenue for a decade.

I'll need to report the capital gains tax on my holdings soon!

[XFool]

Royal Mail announce their new prices at https://www.royalmail.com/prices2024

If bought at a counter, huge rises since last April
small first £1.35 22%
large first £2.10 31%
small second £0.85 13%
large second £1.55 35%

But, will they even arrive?

viewtopic.php?p=649346#p649346

The Royal Mail are clearly in a death spiral, as everyone flees their letter service, and they have many rivals in the parcel space.

IMO, this is both the cause and the effect...

Another 'triumph' for the doctrine of privatisation.

[Dod101]

I am not sure that privatisation has a lot to do with it. It is the massive drop in revenue caused by the huge decrease in the volume of letters that is the problem and the fact that they have still got this unrealistic universal obligation of a six day service.

Dod

[XFool]

I am not sure that privatisation has a lot to do with it. It is the massive drop in revenue caused by the huge decrease in the volume of letters that is the problem and the fact that they have still got this unrealistic universal obligation of a six day service.

Which, of course, the private carriers don't have...

[JohnB]

A 5 day service won't save much, only a 3 day service will, and that of course would require customers to accept that First means post Thursday, will arrive Monday or Tuesday depending on address.

And Ofcom are a chocolate teapot with their price cap strategy.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/ ... s-2024.pdf

[Niksen]

The Royal Mail are clearly in a death spiral, as everyone flees their letter service, and they have many rivals in the parcel space.

Not so much fleeing their letter service, but businesses and individuals simply stopping sending letters.

Also it is somewhat tragic that Royal Mail utterly failed to capitalise on the explosion in online shopping over the last twenty years which requires home delivery and which started when they had a near monopoly, and instead just let multiple operators come in and steal their lunch.

When Royal Mail does finally collapse and the government is forced to rescue it, I struggle to see that the government will want to throw an awful lot of money at maintaining the universal service obligation.

[scrumpyjack]

I am not sure that privatisation has a lot to do with it. It is the massive drop in revenue caused by the huge decrease in the volume of letters that is the problem and the fact that they have still got this unrealistic universal obligation of a six day service.

Dod

It is also the ridiculous resistance by the unions to moves to improve efficiency. For example RM bought expensive automatic sorting machines but the union would not allow them to be used. The problem is it is a monopoly and they tend not to work very well!

[XFool]

It is also the ridiculous resistance by the unions to moves to improve efficiency. For example RM bought expensive automatic sorting machines but the union would not allow them to be used. The problem is it is a monopoly and they tend not to work very well!

Well, there isn't a monopoly now and even Royal Mail is using that as an explanation (excuse?) why it isn't working!

viewtopic.php?p=635942#p635942

[Lootman]

I am not sure that privatisation has a lot to do with it. It is the massive drop in revenue caused by the huge decrease in the volume of letters that is the problem and the fact that they have still got this unrealistic universal obligation of a six day service.

Which, of course, the private carriers don't have...

But the private companies have more of a focus on packages and special delivery, which is more profitable. There isn't much money in sending a birthday card to your aunt in Inverness.

The US postal service is having the same problems as RM and is government-run. A first class tamp there is about 50p and for that you can send a letter from the Florida Keys to Fairbanks, Alaska! About 5,000 miles.

Not so much fleeing their letter service, but businesses and individuals simply stopping sending letters.

Businesses still have to post you statements and invoices if you insist. But they try various ways of bribing or blackmailing you into accepting online statements. You have to be vigilant.

But of course businesses with bulk mailings do not have to use the RM anyway.

[scrumpyjack]

and businesses use the DX service (document exchange) for inter business mail.

[yorkshirelad1]

Royal Mail announce their new prices at https://www.royalmail.com/prices2024

Second class (adjusted for RPI inflation) is about the same as it was in Mar 2021.

On the other hand, 1CL has doubled in actual terms in 6 years (Mar 2018 67p, April 2024 135p).

[Niksen]

Not so much fleeing their letter service, but businesses and individuals simply stopping sending letters.

Businesses still have to post you statements and invoices if you insist. But they try various ways of bribing or blackmailing you into accepting online statements. You have to be vigilant.

I am sure they do, but I don't think the Royal Mail letters service can survive just being propped up by the few who insist on that.

Frankly my complaints to businesses about communications is usually to stop them sending me statements and such like by post, and instead send them electronically. If it is sent as a piece of paper I then need to scan it for retention and shred it for disposal.

[Niksen]

Second class (adjusted for RPI inflation) is about the same as it was in Mar 2021.

On the other hand, 1CL has doubled in actual terms in 6 years (Mar 2018 67p, April 2024 135p).

It was 2005 the rot started and they started the massive increase in prices.

I bought a future stock of stamps at that time to protect against those price rises, but unfortunately overestimated the lifespan of those who I send Christmas cards to, so still have many many years of stamps left to use.

[Lootman]

Businesses still have to post you statements and invoices if you insist. But they try various ways of bribing or blackmailing you into accepting online statements. You have to be vigilant.

I am sure they do, but I don't think the Royal Mail letters service can survive just being propped up by the few who insist on that.

Frankly my complaints to businesses about communications is usually to stop them sending me statements and such like by post, and instead send them electronically. If it is sent as a piece of paper I then need to scan it for retention and shred it for disposal.

Just because I get a statement by post does not mean that it is not also available online. The best solution for me is to have both. I simply file the paper statements in reverse chronological order. I find it much quicker and easier to find an old transaction by skimming through papers than wading through dozens of files on a computer. And the online record is there if I need it for some reason. I like choice.

[Niksen]

I find it much quicker and easier to find an old transaction by skimming through papers than wading through dozens of files on a computer.

Not to be impolite, but I suggest that you need a better online storage system if the one you have is causing you such difficulties.

And the online record is there if I need it for some reason. I like choice.

And that is fair enough, but are there enough like you to support the Royal Mail letters business? Pretty unlikely.

[JohnB]

Paper statements work best for me. Its far more work logging in, finding, saving and renaming than punching holes. And I can skim paper far faster than PDFs, and write notes on it.

[Lootman]

I find it much quicker and easier to find an old transaction by skimming through papers than wading through dozens of files on a computer.

Not to be impolite, but I suggest that you need a better online storage system if the one you have is causing you such difficulties.

And the online record is there if I need it for some reason. I like choice.

And that is fair enough, but are there enough like you to support the Royal Mail letters business? Pretty unlikely.

As I said, I do not need an "online storage system". And have no "difficulties".

I am no fan of the RM and it is probably doomed. But that is a separate issue from whether businesses can force people off paper totally and there are other options for mailing me things.

I do not like to get bulky things like prospectuses and corporate action notices in paper form. It is wasteful. But I really like to have paper statements, invoices and tax certificates in addition to anything online.

Paper statements work best for me. Its far more work logging in, finding, saving and renaming than punching holes. And I can skim paper far faster than PDFs, and write notes on it.

Exactly. I use shoe boxes so need to punch holes.

[scrumpyjack]

Paper statements work best for me. Its far more work logging in, finding, saving and renaming than punching holes. And I can skim paper far faster than PDFs, and write notes on it.

So just print out the statement they emailed you, or that you downloaded. There is no need for it to be physically transported half way across the country.

[JohnB]

But they never email statements, they send content-free emails that require you to use 2FA logins to clumsy websites. So as well as paying for the ink and paper, I pay with my time.

[Lootman]

Paper statements work best for me. Its far more work logging in, finding, saving and renaming than punching holes. And I can skim paper far faster than PDFs, and write notes on it.

So just print out the statement they emailed you, or that you downloaded. There is no need for it to be physically transported half way across the country.

Presumably John is talking about keeping his files and records at home.

If he is on holiday he probably won't need to access those records anyway until he gets home. And there is always online as a backup.