The Lemon Fool

Hi Folks,

Just had my price forecast from E-on regarding the price increases, Gov cap etc. Estimated annual increase Electricity £2.50, Gas is a decrease by £0.01, that's right a penny less. So I'm potentally £2.49 worse of next year. I think I can live with that.

Ray.

Interesting. I hope 2023 sees some pause in the escalating cost of domestic energy. I guess winter 23/24 will be very difficult and expensive again. I understand the government support for domestic energy prices is being reviewed in the spring. So even if underlying prices have peaked, withdrawal of government support to families could still result in even higher bills next winter. It's a worrying time.

Isn't it already announced that the cap will rise such that the cap for the notional typical £2500 bill will become £3000?

Given that this year there was also £400 of support, that essentially means the typical annual bill will rise by ~43% from £2500-400 to £3000.

xeny wrote:Isn't it already announced that the cap will rise such that the cap for the notional typical £2500 bill will become £3000?

Given that this year there was also £400 of support, that essentially means the typical annual bill will rise by ~43% from £2500-400 to £3000.

I struggle to keep up with the various announcements. I believe the whole situation is being put under review in the spring since the Chancellor reduced the original support package from two years duration to just this winter. And the energy price caps were said to be getting revised every three months instead of every six. I may have dreamed it but I recall the current universal entitlement to domestic energy bill support is being withdrawn and replaced by something more targeted. Apologies if any of that is incorrect. As I said, I struggle to keep up with all the various announcements and changes in policy.

xeny wrote:Isn't it already announced that the cap will rise such that the cap for the notional typical £2500 bill will become £3000?

Given that this year there was also £400 of support, that essentially means the typical annual bill will rise by ~43% from £2500-400 to £3000.

Yes, though the exact prices won't be known for some time, and will, of course vary slightly by area and company.

The OGGEM price cap is still used as the basis for calculating the government support, hence the tweaks from 1 January 2023. As raybarrow says, there are some insignificant changes to most tariffs from then, though for some reason I can't fathom, some tariffs such as (I think) economy 7 and prepayment ones, are rising by a larger amount.

Edited to say yes, I think Bulldog is right that the £3000 figure might have been superceded by a withdrawal of universal support from 1 April 2023, to be replaced by as yet unannounced targeted aid. I too can't keep up with it all

Edited again...

The £3k figure for an average bill does still apply, according to the government website...

As announced in the 2022 Autumn Statement, the Energy Price Guarantee will be extended from April 2023 until April 2024. Over this period a typical household bill in Great Britain will be reduced to around £3,000. Based on projections of the undiscounted price of energy, this is expected to save the typical household in Great Britain around £500.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2022

raybarrow wrote:Hi Folks,

Just had my price forecast from E-on regarding the price increases, Gov cap etc. Estimated annual increase Electricity £2.50, Gas is a decrease by £0.01, that's right a penny less. So I'm potentally £2.49 worse of next year. I think I can live with that.

Ray.

I'm so jealous
mine is going up by 2p

Well it seems I'll be £2.16 worse off. Let's hope the Energy Price Guarantee discount doesn't disappear though, as without it my cost would be ~71% higher.

If you look at the futures markets, wholesale gas prices are going to stay at current levels at least through next winter (and there's probably scope for some nasty spikes as European storage is unlikely to be jammed full of Russian gas as it is at the moment), and maybe 30% down the following winter. 30% down is still maybe 4-5x the historical price though.

Hallucigenia wrote:If you look at the futures markets, wholesale gas prices are going to stay at current levels at least through next winter (and there's probably scope for some nasty spikes as European storage is unlikely to be jammed full of Russian gas as it is at the moment), and maybe 30% down the following winter. 30% down is still maybe 4-5x the historical price though.

I'm not sure of the timescale involved, but I seem to recall Germany has secured charter on a number of floating LNG regasification vessels? That's going to make a big difference if they are on line sending gas into Germany before next winter arrives. Meantime, I expect the three UK LNG terminals will be running flat out all year sending gas through the UK gas transmission system and across the interconnectors into Europe to help rebuild gas storages that are being drawn down this winter. I think I am right in saying record amounts of gas from regasified LNG were exported from the UK to Europe this summer and autumn in order to fill storage facilities in Europe. I think that's going to continue. It's simply a question of bidding the highest for spot LNG cargoes. It was reported in the press recently that UK government is trying to secure more LNG supplies from both USA and Qatar. Interesting, recently the very first cargo ever of LNG was shipped from Mozambique and that's going to grow significantly. But it's a case of who pays the most when it comes to spot LNG shipments. Majority of the world's LNG is under long term contract supply agreements so not available to buy. Ofcourse the free world has mostly lost access to Russian LNG. Except I understand that in typical fashion, Total are still in the Russian LNG business.

Also maybe by then they can do something about the absurd present arrangement whereby the electricity price is based on the price of gas even though less than half our electricity comes from gas.

I am jealous too.
Ovo says my E7 price will go up around £130.

kenko92 wrote:I am jealous too.
Ovo says my E7 price will go up around £130.

Ovo, expiring E7 fix around £1,600.
Next year c£4,000.
Wooly jumpers.

V8

scrumpyjack wrote:Also maybe by then they can do something about the absurd present arrangement whereby the electricity price is based on the price of gas even though less than half our electricity comes from gas.

In the same way that more easily extracted oil attracts a lower price?

kenko92 wrote:I am jealous too.
Ovo says my E7 price will go up around £130.

I'm slightly jealous.

Outfox sent me a 5+ page email, trying to explain at length the difference between the price cap and price guarantee, which confused me even more. There were some figures based on some assumptions that seem way wide of the mark of our actual use (gas estimate is 63184kWh/annum, which is more than our total use since we moved here in June 2020), and tables on page 3 or 4 listing different day and night rates despite us being on a single rate tariff, so I really don't have a clue how much ours will change by.

Apparently Gas price is unchanged at 9.84p/kWh (plus VAT), but for electric it says..


.........................Until 31st Dec...Price Guarantee Discount.....Your Prices from 1st Jan
Electricity Day Rate ......37.771p..............33.432p.....................38.435p
Electricity Night Rate.....21.712p..............33.432p ....................27.020p

So DAK the 'standard' guarantee rate will be, I'm currently paying 32.12p/kWh single rate.

Oh, and where's the link to how to create tables - I did look but lost it again

Thanks

Paul

My current fixed deal is


Day: 24.078p

Night: 11.866p

SC 16.44p

Their variable rate which I will move to soon is

Standing charge 51.16p (51.16p from 1st Jan 2023)
Primary unit rate 44.269p (47.33p from 1st Jan 2023)
Night unit rate 11.457p (12.38p from 1st Jan 2023)

Around three quarters of my electricity is consumed at the night rate.

I adjusted my DD + £66 when the rebates began, so I'm actually better off for the time being.

I'm with SO Energy and the prices are
Now 1.1.23
39.01 39.01 SC
38.21 43.04 Day per kwh
23.35 22.77 Night per kwh

Don't have gas, use oil for heating and hot water

My account has a credit balance of about £1,000 and the monthly DD is too high but I gather trying to get refunds from energy companies is a real PITA so I can't be bothered to do anything about it.

Is it actually possible to change supplier now? As far as I can see none of them encourage switching but it might be worth it if the night/day differentials from another supplier better suit ones usage.

DrFfybes wrote:

kenko92 wrote:I am jealous too.
Ovo says my E7 price will go up around £130.

I'm slightly jealous.

Outfox sent me a 5+ page email, trying to explain at length the difference between the price cap and price guarantee, which confused me even more. There were some figures based on some assumptions that seem way wide of the mark of our actual use (gas estimate is 63184kWh/annum, which is more than our total use since we moved here in June 2020), and tables on page 3 or 4 listing different day and night rates despite us being on a single rate tariff, so I really don't have a clue how much ours will change by.

Apparently Gas price is unchanged at 9.84p/kWh (plus VAT), but for electric it says..


.........................Until 31st Dec...Price Guarantee Discount.....Your Prices from 1st Jan
Electricity Day Rate ......37.771p..............33.432p.....................38.435p
Electricity Night Rate.....21.712p..............33.432p ....................27.020p

So DAK the 'standard' guarantee rate will be, I'm currently paying 32.12p/kWh single rate.

Oh, and where's the link to how to create tables - I did look but lost it again

Thanks

Paul

Hi Paul, my email from Outfox says :


Advice on doing tables is under Lemon Lounge - Room 102 - Site issues, complaints & General Chat

Cheers
Gersemi

Gersemi wrote:

Hi Paul, my email from Outfox says :


Advice on doing tables is under Lemon Lounge - Room 102 - Site issues, complaints & General Chat

Thanks - looks like it will go down slightly then

Re Tables -

DrFfybes wrote:Oh, and where's the link to how to create tables - I did look but lost it again
Paul

http://lemonfoolfinancialsoftware.weebl ... ormat.html

--kiloran

scrumpyjack wrote:I'm with SO Energy

My account has a credit balance of about £1,000 and the monthly DD is too high but I gather trying to get refunds from energy companies is a real PITA so I can't be bothered to do anything about it.

I'm with So Energy, and it is not difficult to request and receive refunds for overpayment.

Work out your maximum refund from their help pages, and just ask for a refund at help@so.energy. Note they will want photos of your meters to confirm your readings.

I haven't looked recently, but their system used to be
- minimum refund £30
- minimum amont left in credit is 1 month if on summer/winter scheme, otherwise 2 months in winter and 1 month in summer if on level payment scheme.