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TJH Portfolio Adjustment

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tjh290633
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TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#329921

Postby tjh290633 » July 31st, 2020, 11:30 am

Segro went past my arbitrary weight limit of 1.5 times the median holding value last night, and continued its rise today so, as is my custom, I sold 25% today at 966p. The proceeds went into topping up the two most eligible shares in my top-up rankings, BAE Systems (BA.) at 499p and Pearson (PSON) at 543p, adding 21% to each holding. This has a beneficial effect on my dividend income, as SGRO yields only 2.1%, while BA. yields 4.65% and PSON yields 3.59%.

My top-up table now looks like this:

Top-up          Income                     Cost                
Rank EPIC Rank EPIC % Income Rank Epic % Cost
1 IMB* 1 BP. 7.70% 1 PSON 4.46%
2 BP.* 2 LGEN 6.42% 2 RDSB 4.44%
3 BATS* 3 BATS 5.89% 3 LLOY 4.40%
4 BLND 4 IMB 5.22% 4 MARS 4.35%
5 RDSB* 5 BHP 5.01% 5 WMH 4.30%
6 VOD* 6 RIO 5.01% 6 AV. 4.24%
7 LGEN* 7 SSE 4.92% 7 BT.A 4.19%
8 AV.* 8 NG. 4.52% 8 MKS 4.02%
9 GSK 9 VOD 4.39% 9 BP. 3.92%
10 MKS 10 GSK 3.91% 10 GSK 3.72%
11 TATE 11 ADM 3.80% 11 S32 3.71%
12 TSCO 12 UU. 3.59% 12 BLND 3.63%

As I have said in the past, I disqualify any share from topping up if doing so would lead to it contributing more than 5% to either dividend income or portfolio cost. Consequently the first 9 in the income rankings and the first 6 in the cost rankings are disqualified*. This makes BLND the most eligible share, but it has deferred dividends so, pending any reinstatemment, I have disqualified it for now. MKS is also a non-payer so is also on hold. That puts GSK, TATE and TSCO in the lead for when I have enough accumulated dividends to do a top-up, probably late in August.

My portfolio now looks like this:

Value                
Rank EPIC Weight
1 DGE 3.71%
2 AZN 3.67%
3 KGF 3.60%
4 ULVR 3.53%
5 NG. 3.38%
6 BHP 3.35%
7 RB. 3.30%
8 SSE 3.28%
9 RIO 3.20%
10 SGRO 3.18%
11 LGEN 3.13%
12 BA. 3.12%
13 ADM 3.09%
14 UU. 3.05%
15 PSON 3.04%
16 GSK 3.03%
17 BATS 3.02%
18 VOD 2.84%
19 TATE 2.80%
20 S32 2.76%
21 TSCO 2.74%
22 BP. 2.71%
23 IMI 2.70%
24 PHP 2.65%
25 RDSB 2.59%
26 AV. 2.57%
27 BLND 2.50%
28 TW. 2.45%
29 SMDS 2.40%
30 WMH 2.23%
31 BT.A 2.08%
32 IMB 2.06%
33 CPG 1.84%
34 MARS 1.56%
36 LLOY 1.54%
36 MKS 1.28%

SGRO has dropped to 10th place, while BA. has risen from 23rd to 12th place and PSON from 26th to 15th.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330056

Postby Gengulphus » July 31st, 2020, 8:25 pm

On a point of detail, LLOY and MKS both being on value rank 36 looks like an obvious and easily-understood typo - but I'm a bit surprised at it, as the value rank list you include in these reports looks to be easily generated by a spreadsheet rather than hand-generated. So I'm wondering whether your "Value Rank" is calculated in some more complex way than just ranking the weightings high-to-low?

Gengulphus

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330062

Postby csearle » July 31st, 2020, 9:02 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Segro went past my arbitrary weight limit...
Thanks Terry, very useful in these weird times. Chris

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330063

Postby Dod101 » July 31st, 2020, 9:06 pm

I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330090

Postby daveh » August 1st, 2020, 7:40 am

Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod

Same here, and I've also not sure where it stands in my portfolio (probably top). I've top sliced it twice in the past, but I think in these strange times I'm going to run my winners too, at least for a while.

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330139

Postby Arborbridge » August 1st, 2020, 12:00 pm

Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod


But then, you haven't revealed how big it is in your portfolio! It might only be 3% or it could be 15% - so we still aren't much wiser.

Terry gives us an admirably clear insight into what he is doing and his method which informs that.
I wish everyone was as transparent, though we have to accept that some people have a less organised approach to investment.

Arb.

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330140

Postby Arborbridge » August 1st, 2020, 12:03 pm

daveh wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod

Same here, and I've also not sure where it stands in my portfolio (probably top). I've top sliced it twice in the past, but I think in these strange times I'm going to run my winners too, at least for a while.


You would only sell a winner in exceptional circumstances so you agree with Dod, But then you tell us you've trimmed it twice already, so that's two exceptional circumstances? :? So you agree with Dod AND Terry, perhaps. But then Dod post was in effect a criticism of Terry, so :?

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330160

Postby Dod101 » August 1st, 2020, 1:00 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod


But then, you haven't revealed how big it is in your portfolio! It might only be 3% or it could be 15% - so we still aren't much wiser.

Terry gives us an admirably clear insight into what he is doing and his method which informs that.
I wish everyone was as transparent, though we have to accept that some people have a less organised approach to investment.

Arb.


Since you ask, Segro is 3.9% of my total holdings, against an average of 3.3%. I bought it 5 years ago at £4.492 and so it has more or less doubled in that time and of course I have had dividends as well. Wish all my shares were like that.

Dod

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330163

Postby Dod101 » August 1st, 2020, 1:07 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
daveh wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod

Same here, and I've also not sure where it stands in my portfolio (probably top). I've top sliced it twice in the past, but I think in these strange times I'm going to run my winners too, at least for a while.


You would only sell a winner in exceptional circumstances so you agree with Dod, But then you tell us you've trimmed it twice already, so that's two exceptional circumstances? :? So you agree with Dod AND Terry, perhaps. But then Dod post was in effect a criticism of Terry, so :?


It is not that I do not trim winners as I trimmed Unilever at £50 last year and I have trimmed Scottish Mortgage three timers this year, the last two or three weeks ago at £9.17 but I trim them deliberately to take profits if a share has risen very strongly but I do not have a mechanical system for that. I am not criticising at all because the mechanical system that Terry uses clearly works but I could not be bothered with the necessary record keeping nor all the buying and selling. Both have costs that I am not interested in incurring. I must say I have done more buying and selling this year than I normally do, partly because of Covid.

Dod

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330203

Postby tjh290633 » August 1st, 2020, 3:57 pm

Gengulphus wrote:On a point of detail, LLOY and MKS both being on value rank 36 looks like an obvious and easily-understood typo - but I'm a bit surprised at it, as the value rank list you include in these reports looks to be easily generated by a spreadsheet rather than hand-generated. So I'm wondering whether your "Value Rank" is calculated in some more complex way than just ranking the weightings high-to-low?

Gengulphus

The weight rankings are correct, but Lloyds should be ranked 35th. Thanks for noting the error in my spreadsheet.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330217

Postby Arborbridge » August 1st, 2020, 4:59 pm

Dod101 wrote:Since you ask, Segro is 3.9% of my total holdings, against an average of 3.3%. I bought it 5 years ago at £4.492 and so it has more or less doubled in that time and of course I have had dividends as well. Wish all my shares were like that.

Dod


In that case, nowhere near needing trimming by anyone's standards. I wish I'd bought it too!

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330227

Postby kempiejon » August 1st, 2020, 5:17 pm

I see that I bought Segro in August 2007, dividata shows 32.51p normal dividend that year and a bonus special dividend 56p, the following years saw cuts and we had a rights issue. Although the dividend was only reduced it's still below what it was at purchase. Not really such a great HYP buy.

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330240

Postby tjh290633 » August 1st, 2020, 5:46 pm

kempiejon wrote:I see that I bought Segro in August 2007, dividata shows 32.51p normal dividend that year and a bonus special dividend 56p, the following years saw cuts and we had a rights issue. Although the dividend was only reduced it's still below what it was at purchase. Not really such a great HYP buy.

Something wrong with that. I bought in 2007 at 543p, the next two dividends were 8.3p and 5.7p, PIDs plus an ordinary div of 9p, making 23p total. The initial yield was 4.23%.

Then there were rights at 12 for 1 at 10p, followed by a 10 for 1 consolidation, plus an open offer at 210p, all in 2009, connected with the take-over of Brixton Estates.

The last two dividends were 6.9p and 14.4p, 21.3p total. I just sold at about 966p and my IRR is 16.8%.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330247

Postby daveh » August 1st, 2020, 6:57 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
daveh wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am delighted to hear that Segro has increased in value. Not surprised but happy. I have not the slightest concern about where it stands overall in my portfolio I must say, and would only sell a 'winner' in exceptional circumstances.

Dod

Same here, and I've also not sure where it stands in my portfolio (probably top). I've top sliced it twice in the past, but I think in these strange times I'm going to run my winners too, at least for a while.


You would only sell a winner in exceptional circumstances so you agree with Dod, But then you tell us you've trimmed it twice already, so that's two exceptional circumstances? :? So you agree with Dod AND Terry, perhaps. But then Dod post was in effect a criticism of Terry, so :?


No it's not that I would only sell in exceptional circumstances, it's the exact opposite. I'm not selling (or should I say topslicing) because of exceptional circumstances. In normal times I would have topsliced Segro as I have twice before when it became too big a percentage of my portfolio. At the moment with lots of shares cutting divis and many HYP shares well down I'm going to stick with Segro for a while.

My topslicing is not as mechanical as TJH's method. But if a share goes above 2x median level in my portfolio I think about top slicing it. So far it's only been Segro and I've sold a percentage twice.

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330248

Postby Arborbridge » August 1st, 2020, 7:14 pm

daveh wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
daveh wrote:Same here, and I've also not sure where it stands in my portfolio (probably top). I've top sliced it twice in the past, but I think in these strange times I'm going to run my winners too, at least for a while.


You would only sell a winner in exceptional circumstances so you agree with Dod, But then you tell us you've trimmed it twice already, so that's two exceptional circumstances? :? So you agree with Dod AND Terry, perhaps. But then Dod post was in effect a criticism of Terry, so :?


No it's not that I would only sell in exceptional circumstances, it's the exact opposite. I'm not selling (or should I say topslicing) because of exceptional circumstances. In normal times I would have topsliced Segro as I have twice before when it became too big a percentage of my portfolio. At the moment with lots of shares cutting divis and many HYP shares well down I'm going to stick with Segro for a while.

My topslicing is not as mechanical as TJH's method. But if a share goes above 2x median level in my portfolio I think about top slicing it. So far it's only been Segro and I've sold a percentage twice.


Thanks for clearing that up! I'm more or less the same - I think of top slicing at 2x median. From a recent thread of mine, you'll know that AZN is just about there now for me, but I am not in a hurry to rush into it.

Arb.

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Re: TJH Portfolio Adjustment

#330253

Postby daveh » August 1st, 2020, 7:40 pm

AZN is another that has done well for me, I'll have to check my spreadsheet but I think it is still below 2x median. I was considering a top sliced before covid. Mostly because the price had run well ahead and the big difference between eps and normalised eps with the exceptionals that didn't seem that exceptional as they appeared every year. I'm glad I gave them the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Let's see how their drug pipeline does from here.


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