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Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

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idpickering
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Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#355067

Postby idpickering » November 10th, 2020, 7:08 am

Here; viewtopic.php?p=355066#p355066

The item includes this on another dividend payment;

Capital return plan

Given the substantial and immediate uncertainties facing the UK economy at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, in late March, the Board cancelled the interim dividend for the 2019 financial year which was to be paid in early April. Remaining mindful of the challenges facing the UK economy the Board also decided to postpone the payment of the 2019 final dividend of 110p per share, due to be paid in early July, to enable the Board to assess the pandemic's impact on the Group.

Given the progress the business has made in these difficult circumstances, the Board made a part payment (of 40p per share) of the postponed final dividend for 2019 in September. In light of the continued strong performance and in line with the long term strategic objectives of the Group, which includes recognising the importance of dividend receipts to pension schemes in supporting retired workers and their families, the Board is pleased to announce a second interim dividend of 70p per share which will be paid on 14 December 2020 to shareholders on the register on 27 November 2020 in satisfaction of the Board's previously indicated final dividend for 2019. No further dividend payments will be made in relation to the 2019 financial year.

An update on the Group's capital return plan will be provided in the Group's 2020 full year results announcement on 3 March 2021.

Arborbridge
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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#355076

Postby Arborbridge » November 10th, 2020, 7:38 am

Thanks Ian. That's pushed up my forecast for PSN so it now yields 3.94%.

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#355082

Postby idpickering » November 10th, 2020, 8:04 am

Arborbridge wrote:Thanks Ian. That's pushed up my forecast for PSN so it now yields 3.94%.


You’re welcome Arb. They’re not one that I hold currently, but have in the past. That’s in keeping with my ‘you don’t have to have a finger in every pie’ tactic. I’ve no plans to buy into it currently either. I’m not saying never mind.

Ian.

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#355084

Postby monabri » November 10th, 2020, 8:10 am

So, that's a second dividend announced compared to Taylor Wimpey's "zero"! :(

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#358584

Postby starter » November 20th, 2020, 8:04 pm

Are there any other housebuilders that have either retained or resumed payments?

monabri
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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#358589

Postby monabri » November 20th, 2020, 8:39 pm

starter wrote:Are there any other housebuilders that have either retained or resumed payments?


TW,BDEV,CRST,RDW,VTY haven't : possibly Bellway (BWY) have

There might be some more info here:-

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... et=ftse100

Oh, LGEN never stopped! ;) (I wonder how their housebuilding section is getting on?)

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#358901

Postby scrumpyjack » November 21st, 2020, 8:30 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Thanks Ian. That's pushed up my forecast for PSN so it now yields 3.94%.


I think there are grounds for forecasting a much higher yield than 3.94% for Persimmon

Their updated Capital Return Plan schedule says that their current intention is to pay 110p in March 2021 and 125p in July 2021.
They specifically mark these 2 payments as being the current anticipated profile of payment
The schedule has been updated for the latest 70p payment.

https://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporat ... eturn-plan

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#358925

Postby Arborbridge » November 21st, 2020, 10:58 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Thanks Ian. That's pushed up my forecast for PSN so it now yields 3.94%.


I think there are grounds for forecasting a much higher yield than 3.94% for Persimmon

Their updated Capital Return Plan schedule says that their current intention is to pay 110p in March 2021 and 125p in July 2021.
They specifically mark these 2 payments as being the current anticipated profile of payment
The schedule has been updated for the latest 70p payment.

https://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporat ... eturn-plan


That sounds good. I'm now just taking the forecast from HYPTUSS as being near enough for my purpose. It's currently giving 4.0%. If I receive more I shall be even happier!

Arb.

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#358992

Postby starter » November 22nd, 2020, 12:19 pm

monabri wrote:
starter wrote:Are there any other housebuilders that have either retained or resumed payments?


TW,BDEV,CRST,RDW,VTY haven't : possibly Bellway (BWY) have

There might be some more info here:-

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... et=ftse100

Oh, LGEN never stopped! ;) (I wonder how their housebuilding section is getting on?)


Thank you for this. So Bellway and Persimmon are both dividend resumers.

Is Bellway's 1.66% dividend yield likely to go back to decent levels, or is this a general reset. I've only seen what the board has been saying and although they are hoping for an increase from the current 50p, there's no commitment to going back to the old level.

I currently have Legal and General, although my view is that housebuilding was a minor part of their profitability (I'm under the impression a lot of it's currently making a loss) and not part of its dividend fitness. Am I being naive?

dealtn
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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359000

Postby dealtn » November 22nd, 2020, 12:45 pm

starter wrote:
I currently have Legal and General, although my view is that housebuilding was a minor part of their profitability (I'm under the impression a lot of it's currently making a loss) and not part of its dividend fitness. Am I being naive?


It's somewhat out of date as the financial year ends on 31st December.

https://www.legalandgeneralgroup.com/me ... y_lo-1.pdf

Page 36/37 are the relevant sections. Yes, its a (very) small part of the business, although I suspect it's growing. It is profitable, and probably still will be this year.

ReallyVeryFoolish
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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359002

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 22nd, 2020, 12:49 pm

dealtn wrote:
starter wrote:
I currently have Legal and General, although my view is that housebuilding was a minor part of their profitability (I'm under the impression a lot of it's currently making a loss) and not part of its dividend fitness. Am I being naive?


It's somewhat out of date as the financial year ends on 31st December.

https://www.legalandgeneralgroup.com/me ... y_lo-1.pdf

Page 36/37 are the relevant sections. Yes, its a (very) small part of the business, although I suspect it's growing. It is profitable, and probably still will be this year.

I suspect with LGEN's housing business which I believe is based around modular off site construction of houses? There will be huge investment up front and during early projects which hopefully rapidly mature the business to the stage it becomes like a well oiled sausage machine and just keeps cranking out the houses with a decent margin?

RVF

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359007

Postby Dod101 » November 22nd, 2020, 1:18 pm

I am not sure I would call L & G's house building business 'based around' modular homes. They own, in my part of the world, Cala Homes which is a large conventional house builder, although they do have modular schemes as well, prefabs as they used to be called. I think that Cala is profitable but I am not sure the modular stuff is.

They are using their longterm capital funds for this and not their own shareholder funds, so whether it is profitable or not I do not think that the results impact on its bottom line, except indirectly, and they are not housebuilders in the sense of the others mentioned on this thread.

Rather off topic I would have thought.

Dod

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359028

Postby dealtn » November 22nd, 2020, 3:19 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dealtn wrote:
starter wrote:
I currently have Legal and General, although my view is that housebuilding was a minor part of their profitability (I'm under the impression a lot of it's currently making a loss) and not part of its dividend fitness. Am I being naive?


It's somewhat out of date as the financial year ends on 31st December.

https://www.legalandgeneralgroup.com/me ... y_lo-1.pdf

Page 36/37 are the relevant sections. Yes, its a (very) small part of the business, although I suspect it's growing. It is profitable, and probably still will be this year.


I suspect with LGEN's housing business which I believe is based around modular off site construction of houses? ...
RVF


Don't think so. More details in the Company Accounts.

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359064

Postby monabri » November 22nd, 2020, 6:28 pm

I threw in LGEN as "housebuilders"...... it's true but it ain't a major part of their business - hence the ;)

viewtopic.php?p=257821#p257821

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359070

Postby starter » November 22nd, 2020, 7:08 pm

starter wrote:
monabri wrote:
starter wrote:Are there any other housebuilders that have either retained or resumed payments?


TW,BDEV,CRST,RDW,VTY haven't : possibly Bellway (BWY) have

There might be some more info here:-

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... et=ftse100

Oh, LGEN never stopped! ;) (I wonder how their housebuilding section is getting on?)


Thank you for this. So Bellway and Persimmon are both dividend resumers.

Is Bellway's 1.66% dividend yield likely to go back to decent levels, or is this a general reset. I've only seen what the board has been saying and although they are hoping for an increase from the current 50p, there's no commitment to going back to the old level.

I currently have Legal and General, although my view is that housebuilding was a minor part of their profitability (I'm under the impression a lot of it's currently making a loss) and not part of its dividend fitness. Am I being naive?

Thanks for the input on LGEN

So is Bellway likely to be a riser, and what are people's opinions on buying into recovering dividend payers despite their history? In my opinion it's really the only way to get diversification.

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Re: Persimmon Third Quarter Trading Statement posted on Company News Board.

#359108

Postby tjh290633 » November 22nd, 2020, 11:05 pm

starter wrote:what are people's opinions on buying into recovering dividend payers despite their history? In my opinion it's really the only way to get diversification.

I have just had a quick look at my experiences in the 2008-2010 downturn. Almost half the shares which I held stopped paying dividends in that period. Out of 34 holdings, 15 were affected. Of those, 2 stopped a single dividend because they were having a rights issue (William Hill and Rexam). Of the others, I kept hold of three because I thought that they were good prospects for recovery (BP, Lloyds TSB and Taylor Wimpey), which may indicate the level of my judgment. I still hold them.

The remaining 11 were sold, not always immediately, but when the price had recovered a little from its initial fall. Those were:

Anglo-American
Cattles
Rentokil
Trinity Mirror
ITV
Yule Catto (now Synthomer)
Premier Foods
DSG International
Tomkins
Mapeley

Cattles were suspended and declared of zero value. I never had a chance to sell them. The rest were disposed of and I reinvested in more reliable dividend paying shares.

The IRR figures for the remaining holdings were:

Mapeley Ltd              -88.99%
DSG International plc -37.46%
Trinity Mirror plc -10.96%
Anglo American plc 38.04%
Premier Foods plc -46.29%
Rentokil Initial plc 0.34%
Prudential Corporation 12.45%
Yule Catto plc 29.56%
ITV plc -0.51%
Tomkins plc 7.63%

Anglo-American never paid a dividend while I had it, but its price rose over 50% above that which I had paid and I decided to switch into BHP Billiton, as I was effectively getting a discount on their price which made their low yield more acceptable.

The rest I considered to be a dead loss at the time.

This year I have had a mixture of dividends being stopped and dividends being reduced. Some have reinstated dividends, resumed or are about to resume paying out. These include Aviva, Admiral, British Land, IMI, DS Smith and Taylor Wimpey. Dividends have been reduced by Aviva, BP., RDSB, IMI and South32. Still on the naughty step are William Hill (being taken over), Marstons, Marks & Spencer, BT, Compass, Kingfisher and Lloyds Banking. I do not regard any as being unlikely to recover this time, although Lloyds never really recovered from its previous trauma.

I am not putting money into any of those not paying dividends. William Hill will be replaced by something that is paying reasonable dividends. The rest I plan to hold for now. I do not see any as being total write-offs.

TJH


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