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too high?

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IanTHughes
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Re: too high?

#510821

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 9:51 am

The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK. Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.

Like many of us I presume, I add to my HYP on a regular basis. What this means is, each time I add funds to my HYP I determine, subject to restrictions I may impose in order to maintain diversification or avoid over concentration, the highest yield available, where I consider the dividend to be sustainable.

Let us assume that such an investor imposes a limit on the yield at which they will buy, however such a limit is calculated.

In Month One the Yield Limit is calculated as 8.00%. The share with the highest yield available, where the dividend is considered sustainable, is 7.50%. The purchase is made. In Month Two the Yield Limit is reduced to 7.80% and the same share offers the highest yield available, where the dividend is considered sustainable. But the yield is now 8.20%. This breaches the Yield Limit, so the purchase is not made. In Month Three the Yield Limit is back up to 8.00% and the same share once again offers the highest yield available, where the dividend is considered sustainable. Now, the yield is 7.90%. The purchase is made.

In summary, when looking at the reward being offered each time:

Time        | Reward | Decision
Month One | 7.50% | Accept
Month Two | 8.20% | Reject
Month Three | 7.90% | Accept

The reward being offered is rejected when it is at the highest level, even though the underlying risk of a dividend cut is exactly the same as when the reward being offered is at a lower level and accepted! This makes no sense to me at all, especially if the investor is claiming to be an HYPer, i.e. looking for income.

A share which was acceptable at a Reward of X%, is surely even more acceptable when that Reward is greater than X%!

Each to their own of course!


Ian

Itsallaguess
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Re: too high?

#510832

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 10:21 am

idpickering wrote:
I have 28 holdings, and am happy with the diversification they offer me.

The average weighting in capital value terms is about 3.5%, so if one or two shares falter, it’s not the end of the world so to speak.


In relation to the conversation going on in this thread, the primary risk of ultra-high-yielding shares is likely to be in direct relation to their income-weighting, and not capital...

If we perhaps imagine an income portfolio with equal capital weighting of 3.5%, but a wide band of income-weighting, with some ultra-high-yield components towards the top end of those income-weightings, then it should be clear that the impact of a drop in dividends in that ultra-high-yield area is likely to be proportionally much worse in terms of overall portfolio income, when compared to a potential dividend drop in more moderately yielding shares...

Anyone interested in seeing how this actually plays out in relation to HYP would do well to see the post linked below, which looks at the the income-weighting risk for the 21st birthday of the HYP1 portfolio -

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=33582

Hopefully the data presented in the above post is clear enough, but just as a stand-out highlight, HYP1 at the above 21st birthday stage received over 60% of it's overall income from just two shares - RIO and Persimmon..

RIO is currently on a yield of 12.8% - https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-yield.py?epic=RIO

Persimmon is currently on a yield of 12.27% - https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-yield.py?epic=PSN

By the way - just FIVE shares delivered over NINETY percent of the HYP1 income in the above review...

Now the above is of course a hands-off portfolio, and I'd expect most people who run a HYP to have a more balanced set of holdings, but in terms of this particular thread, then hopefully it's now clear that income-weightings are much more important than capital weightings when trying to judge the component risk of a single-share income-strategy, and especially where high income-weighting values might be attributed to ultra-high-yielding shares...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: too high?

#510834

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 10:40 am

IanTHughes wrote:
The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK.

Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.


Let's say we all agree on that.

So then let's change the proposition from -

'Anomalous, ultra-high-yields are riskier than more moderate yields'

to

'Anomalous, ultra-high rewards are riskier than more moderate rewards'

You know what - I think we're beginning to find some common ground at last Ian...

Unless, of course, someone might think they can take advantage of anomalous, ultra-high rewards by not increasing any risks...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess
Last edited by Itsallaguess on June 30th, 2022, 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

IanTHughes
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Re: too high?

#510840

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 10:45 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK.

Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.

Let's say we all agree on that.

So then let's change the proposition from -

'Anomalous, ultra-high-yields are riskier than more moderate yields'

to

'Anomalous, ultra-high rewards are riskier than more moderate rewards'

You know what - I think we're beginning to find some common ground at last Ian...

No agreement here. I can only repeat that:

The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK


[Deletion]

Moderator Message:
Unnecessary bit removed. - Chris

Ian

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Re: too high?

#510854

Postby micrographia » June 30th, 2022, 11:35 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
So I don't think Unilever going from 3% to 5% would qualify as an 'anomalously high yield' in the context of this particular discussion to be honest, and I wonder if this is where the source of your confusion in following this thread might be coming from...

Itsallaguess


Knew my post was a bit of a muddle :D . I wasn't putting ULVR forward as a particularly high yielder in the context of the rest of the market, I was noting that at the time, given a choice between say a double helping of TATE on an ultra-high yield or one each of TATE and ULVR, I went for the latter. I recall being pretty confident the TATE fall was way overdone and not due to company-specific issues but I still bought ULVR instead. So the availability of companies that met other criteria for my HYP stopped me buying more UHY shares. I sacrificed additional yield for additional safety. I was trying to make a point about how an individuals context influences their decisions about UHY share buys. My context then was a less diversified HYP dealing with the consequences of being caught overweight in financials :roll: .

My context has changed now. The consequences of a bad outcome are much smaller so I'm more likely to have a little punt - of course the rewards are correspondingly smaller as well :lol: .

Another example illustrates a point made elsewhere in the thread. I topped up IMB when it was yielding over 9% in 2019, in part because I knew that even if the divi was slashed there was a decent chance it would still remain a high yielder. This is exactly what happened - payout cut by a third, so in effect I'd bought a share yielding 6%. Even if a rule had told me that a divi cut was inevitable, I would probably still have bought it. In the interests of balance I'll note that I also confidently bought RDSB during the initial Covid market crash on a yield above 7% :shock: , so it doesn't always work out.

EEM

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Re: too high?

#510857

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 11:37 am

Itsallaguess wrote:Unless, of course, someone might think they can take advantage of anomalous, ultra-high rewards by not increasing any risks...

The level of 'risk' of investing in a particular share, is not determined by an investor's decision as to whether or not to invest! In the case of the sustainability of a dividend, the 'risk' is determined by various factors - Debt Levels, Interest Payments Required, Earnings Levels, Industry Lockdowns ..etc..

All the investor can do is either accept that risk, together with the reward on offer, or reject it, The risk always remains the same!


Ian

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Re: too high?

#510871

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 12:41 pm

micrographia wrote:
I wasn't putting ULVR forward as a particularly high yielder in the context of the rest of the market, I was noting that at the time, given a choice between say a double helping of TATE on an ultra-high yield or one each of TATE and ULVR, I went for the latter.

I recall being pretty confident the TATE fall was way overdone and not due to company-specific issues but I still bought ULVR instead. So the availability of companies that met other criteria for my HYP stopped me buying more UHY shares.

I sacrificed additional yield for additional safety.


Thanks for fleshing things out further, and I can understand completely where you're coming from now, and also agree with your thinking and final decision, as well as the conclusion you've come to as to why you took that particular route...

As a slight aside, it's also good that you were able to take broader advantage of these types of general market dislocations, as I know that whilst we're in the middle of them it's sometimes difficult to actually go through with a mental plan that might have made complete sense in more moderate times, but then suddenly seems much more difficult to implement when we're in the middle of them, so well done on ploughing through with those trades. The secret, of course, is making sure there's funds available to do so...

Ultimately, I completely agree with your view, as an income investor, that it's possible to 'sacrifice additional yield for additional safety', and in the context of this thread, then I'd have to ask where better to start looking to do that, than the ultra-high end of the yield spectrum, where the risk of getting things wrong in an area of such stretched metrics are, by their very nature, much higher...

I think there's a simple a point with income-investing where betting with the market quite clearly becomes betting hard against the market, and the ultra-high-yield area is a stark example of that, in my view...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

IanTHughes
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Re: too high?

#510879

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 1:24 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:..... the ultra-high end of the yield spectrum, where the risk of getting things wrong in an area of such stretched metrics are, by their very nature, much higher...

The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK.

Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.


Ian

Itsallaguess
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Re: too high?

#511005

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 9:47 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
The level of Yield of a given share is not a measure of risk.

Rather it is a measure of reward being offered for taking that risk.


With higher rewards being offered for taking on higher risks.

Ergo - higher yields offer higher rewards because they are higher risk...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: too high?

#511006

Postby BullDog » June 30th, 2022, 9:49 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
The level of Yield of a given share is not a measure of risk.

Rather it is a measure of reward being offered for taking that risk.


With higher rewards being offered for taking on higher risks.

Ergo - higher yields offer higher rewards because they are higher risk...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I know that you know already, away from here, nobody disagrees with you.

IanTHughes
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Re: too high?

#511009

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 9:53 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:The level of Yield of a given share is not a measure of risk.

Rather it is a measure of reward being offered for taking that risk.


With higher rewards being offered for taking on higher risks.

Ergo - higher yields offer higher rewards because they are higher risk...

I think that you have misunderstood.

If a share price drops, the reward offered for that share has increased even though THE RISK OF A CUT IN DIVIDEND IS UNCHANGED.

I can only repeat:

The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK.

Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.



Ian
Last edited by IanTHughes on June 30th, 2022, 10:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Itsallaguess
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Re: too high?

#511010

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 9:57 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
If a share price drops, the reward offered for that share has increased even though the risk is unchanged.


If that were true then a rational market would arbitrage away the huge discrepancies seen with ultra-high-yield 'rewards' until they blended back in with market averages.

People tend to eat free lunches....

The fact that they often don't leaves us with two answers as to why that might be the case -

1. The market has got it wrong and you've spotted a method of achieving much higher 'rewards' without taking on *any* additional risk.

2. The market has got it right, and is only offering an income investor greater rewards by also making them take on a higher risk at the same time.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess
Last edited by Itsallaguess on June 30th, 2022, 10:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Itsallaguess
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Re: too high?

#511011

Postby Itsallaguess » June 30th, 2022, 10:00 pm

BullDog wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
The level of Yield of a given share is not a measure of risk.

Rather it is a measure of reward being offered for taking that risk.


With higher rewards being offered for taking on higher risks.

Ergo - higher yields offer higher rewards because they are higher risk...


I know that you know already, away from here, nobody disagrees with you.


Thanks - good to know.

Happy to dig a lonely furrow on this one though.

I only wish I'd listened to those doing it when I started out...

I'm happy that investors can get adequate rewards from income-investing by the way.

Squeezing the pips until they squeak though?

Not so much...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: too high?

#511014

Postby IanTHughes » June 30th, 2022, 10:09 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:If a share price drops, the reward offered for that share has increased even though the risk is unchanged.


If that were true then a rational market would arbitrage away the huge discrepancies seen with ultra-high-yield 'rewards' until they blended back in with market averages.

People tend to eat free lunches....

The fact that they often don't leaves us with two answers as to why that might be the case -

1. The market has got it wrong and you've spotted a method of achieving much higher 'rewards' without taking on *any* additional risk.

2. The market has got it right, and is only offering an income investor greater rewards by also making them take on a higher risk at the same time.

I have not spotted any such method of achieving much higher 'rewards' without taking on *any* additional risk, and I have never said that I have! All I have stated is the fairly obvious fact that a higher yield represents a higher reward on offer, not a higher risk!

Why you always use such strawman arguments by making up such nonsense, when what I have said is clear for all to read, only you can say. All I will say is that it suggests to me that you do not have anything sensible to add to the discussion.


ian

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Re: too high?

#511017

Postby BullDog » June 30th, 2022, 10:26 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
BullDog wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
The level of Yield of a given share is not a measure of risk.

Rather it is a measure of reward being offered for taking that risk.


With higher rewards being offered for taking on higher risks.

Ergo - higher yields offer higher rewards because they are higher risk...


I know that you know already, away from here, nobody disagrees with you.


Thanks - good to know.

Happy to dig a lonely furrow on this one though.

I only wish I'd listened to those doing it when I started out...

I'm happy that investors can get adequate rewards from income-investing by the way.

Squeezing the pips until they squeak though?

Not so much...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

100% agree. Nobody who puts together enough capital needs to buy the highest yields. If you really need to do that, you don't have enough capital yet. How much capital? Rule of thumb, to be comfortable, around 2x what you first think.

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Re: too high?

#511041

Postby Alaric » July 1st, 2022, 1:30 am

IanTHughes wrote:and I have never said that I have! All I have stated is the fairly obvious fact that a higher yield represents a higher reward on offer, not a higher risk!


In the context of fixed interest investment, corporate bonds, preference shares etc higher yield very much means higher risk. The point being that as the risk of capital or income default increases, then so does the yield required by potential investors. Bond investments can be a parallel class to high yield equities for income seeking investors.

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Re: too high?

#511046

Postby Itsallaguess » July 1st, 2022, 6:08 am

micrographia wrote:
I wasn't putting ULVR forward as a particularly high yielder in the context of the rest of the market, I was noting that at the time, given a choice between say a double helping of TATE on an ultra-high yield or one each of TATE and ULVR,

I went for the latter. I recall being pretty confident the TATE fall was way overdone and not due to company-specific issues but I still bought ULVR instead.

So the availability of companies that met other criteria for my HYP stopped me buying more UHY shares.

I sacrificed additional yield for additional safety.


In a thread that's now six pages long, and having made most of the points I've wanted to make, I just wanted to try to wrap up my own contributions here by re-visiting something that micrographia helpfully said, quoted above, which I think most accurately reflects what might be seen as a satisfying compromise in this debate, for me at least.

I think the above approach taken with a mix of purchases in ULVR and TATE, and how that mix was decided, recognises four important principles that are always worth keeping in mind with regards to ultra-high-yield purchases -

  • That there is indeed an increase risk in ultra-high-yield shares where they are being considered for income-investment purchases
  • That there can still be ways to potentially allow the introduction of such higher-risk purchases into a broadly diversified income-portfolio
  • That there are sometimes ways to mitigate some of those risks by making sure such ultra-high-yield purchases are proportional in relation to other, less risky holdings or parallel purchase options
  • That personal circumstances such as investor age and financial situation can often play a part in decisions to potentially introduce such higher-risk ultra-high-yielding shares into a long-term-buy-and-hold income portfolio

Why I wanted to try to wrap up my own contributions to this thread with the above is that I wanted to say that I think micrgraphia's approach is a really quite valid one to both *recognising* the higher-risk that ultra-high-yield investments bring, but also that it's got some valid methods of then trying to *cope* with those risks, and *mitigate* them where possible, given the particular circumstances of the investor and his appreciation *of* those risks...

That, to me, is going into things with eyes wide open, and with the investor fully alert to the different risks in various points of the yield spectrum, and I think that's a quite valid approach compared to one where those higher risks might *not* be recognised, or even sometimes wilfully ignored, and where the lack of such awareness and potential 'risk balancing strategies' might well expose an income-investor who might not *see* any higher risk, to a much greater chance of hard-falls in their income strategy over the long term...

Finally, I'd just like to be clear on two things -

  • Risk, in the context of this particular discussion is not *just* about the chances of something happening, but also about the potential impact if it does...
  • Neither of the above can be mitigated, for the long-term benefit of an income-investor, if ultra-high-yield investment risks are not even recognised in the first place...
Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: too high?

#511079

Postby IanTHughes » July 1st, 2022, 9:20 am

Maybe a Horse Racing analogy will help those who are struggling with the notions or Risk and Reward.

A gambler decides to bet on a horse in a particular race upon which a bookmaker is offering 5/1. He has looked at the horse’s capabilities – stamina, finishing speed, form in previous races … etc … etc … – and has concluded that this selection is most likely to win. Whilst he is doing all this thinking, the horse is quietly munching its oats in its stable, or maybe parading before its adoring public. However, before our gambler gets to the bookmaker’s window to place the bet, the odds have changed and are now only 3/1. Does this mean that the horse is now more likely to win? Has its form changed? Does it have more stamina? A higher finishing speed? No of course not! All that has happened is that more of the betting public have come to the same conclusion as our rather tardy gambler friend and, by putting their money down first, have forced the bookmaker to alter the reward on offer.

The horse has not changed at all! The chances of this horse winning the race are exactly the same at 3/1, as they were at 5/1!


Moving back to equities and particularly the chance of a dividend cut. The chances of such a cut lie entirely within the makeup of the company in question – debt levels, earnings safety … etc … etc … The risk of a dividend cut is absolutely NOT AFFECTED by the possible reward on offer! All that changes is the level of possible Reward demanded/offered by the market.


Once again with the horse race ……..

While making the original selection of the horse at 5/1, our gambler friend also reviewed and rejected a second horse, where the bookmaker was offering only 3/1. Our gambler was concerned about the horse’s capabilities - lack of stamina, lack of finishing speed, indifferent form … etc … Was this second horse more likely to win this race?

Well, on the face of it no, not according to our gambler friend! He believed that his selection would win the race, that is why he made his selection. However, there were others of the betting public that disagreed with our gambler friend, preferring the chances of the 3/1 selection. So much so, they were willing to accept a lower possible reward! However, in order to make one's own determination as to which of these two horses are more likely to win the race, one must look at the capabilities of each one. The difference in odds simply means that the 3/1 shot is more favoured by the betting public than our gambler friend’s 5/1 selection.


Back to our High Yield Equities …….

An offered possible reward of say 8.00%, when compared with another offered possible reward of say 6.00%, simply means that the investing public is demanding a higher possible reward for the former. To determine the chances of a dividend cut, one must look at each possible selection in detail. And who knows, it is entirely possible that that one may conclude that the offered possible reward of 6.00%, is less safe than the 8.00%!

In other words, the yield on offer, on its own, tells one nothing about the safety or otherwise of the dividend which one is obviously hoping will provide the reward that we all expect from investing in High Yield shares. All it tells one is that the reward demanded/offered for a high yield is greater than for a low yield.

Furthermore, and my apologies for the repetition:
The level of Yield of a given share is NOT A MEASURE OF RISK. Rather it is A MEASURE OF REWARD being offered for taking that risk.


I am somewhat surprised by the fact that certain individuals on this forum, particularly here on the High Yield Portfolio (HYP) board, do not appear to understand what I suspect is one of the simplest notions of Risk and Reward. But on the other hand, what do I care? I mean, it’s not my money such ignorance is affecting!

Each to their own, as they say!


Ian

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Re: too high?

#511093

Postby Itsallaguess » July 1st, 2022, 9:45 am

It's always been my strong belief that the length and complication of analogies are always inversely proportional to their actual relevance...

I think a more appropriate, and much less verbose, horse-racing analogy might be to suggest that fishing in the ultra-high-yield end of the income-investment market is like betting on a horse race that only contains rank-outsiders, with all the associated rank-outsider risks that horse-betting enthusiasts will be quite aware of, and likely carry all the scars thereof if they are regular punters of them...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: too high?

#511099

Postby Itsallaguess » July 1st, 2022, 9:53 am

IanTHughes wrote:
An offered possible reward of say 8.00%, when compared with another offered possible reward of say 6.00%, simply means that the investing public is demanding a higher possible reward for the former.


<whisper>
Because they're higher risk...
</whisper>

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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