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Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

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ReformedCharacter
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#523494

Postby ReformedCharacter » August 18th, 2022, 2:51 pm

My best performing shares, bought in 2012 for £5.54, top sliced at £26.90 in 2017. IRR of 33%. Wish I had a few more like that.

RC

Arborbridge
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#523662

Postby Arborbridge » August 19th, 2022, 8:43 am

daveh wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Oh dear, and I topped up in May :(

Could be another of those disaster shares - overall I am on a breakeven score. But then, I was with Carillion and Interserve for a while.

Arb.


I feel your pain Arb, and thanks for your input.

I’m beginning to think I’ve fallen for the ‘don’t chase high yields trap’ as advised by Dod a number of times. Hmm….

Fwiw, Persimmon are up 1.5% as I type. I’m holding firm with them, but that might change going forward? The bottom line though is that I knew it was a cyclical stock when I bought it, and I did so for the dividend. I should remember that.

Ian.


Yes performing really poorly, I'm now only showing a 409% gain, and they've only paid me ~2.5x the purchase price back in dividends. I don't think they are going to be your regular rising dividend type share as they have been paying their capital returns in a rather lumpy way, but they have more than delivered on the capital return plan that they announced when resuming payouts after the GFC.


Which goes to show, it's often timing the market, not time in the market, which counts :(

moorfield
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#523666

Postby moorfield » August 19th, 2022, 8:56 am

Arborbridge wrote:Which goes to show, it's often timing the market, not time in the market, which counts :(


I suppose that's another way of saying:

Having chosen your shares, simply buy and hold forever. Do not be tempted to meddle, and try not to let press comment on your companies influence you. Do not worry about the fluctuations in the underlying capital value of your shares that are certain to occur.


Remember that ?

daveh
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#523697

Postby daveh » August 19th, 2022, 11:25 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Which goes to show, it's often timing the market, not time in the market, which counts :(


Actually its probably time in the market as my timing was crap. I bought in 2008 into a falling market and very soon after I bought they stopped the dividend (I received just one dividend before it was cancelled) . The best time to buy would have been just after the crash, after they had cancelled the dividend. I thought about it at the time as there was an Interim or final report where it was clear that they were not going bust and prospects were starting to pick up, but they hadn't at that point reinstated the dividend, so decided not to buy more. My recollection is that I could have picked them up at ~250p per share at the time, and I did consider it quite seriously, but I'm an income investor, so as there was no dividend decided to pass.

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#523719

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » August 19th, 2022, 12:38 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Which goes to show, it's often timing the market, not time in the market, which counts :(

Hi Arb,

I hope you're well.

I thought I'd pick up on your comment, if I may please.

In 1989 at the tender age of 27 I recall sitting in an impromptu meeting with many others within the business also present. Our MD was kicking off. He had been to an auction to buy some land. Before he left we [the commercial team] placed a value on the land of £500K. The land sold for £1M. Our MD wasn't the sort to chose tender words or subtle delivery and we sat through a barrage of comments that would have been more at home in the House of Commons.

We went back to our desks, had a cup of coffee and decided it was time to run up the commercial teams battle flag. Death before dishonour. We checked every part of our land value appraisal. It was accurate. Then my boss had a really crazy idea. Or at least we all felt it was. He increased the sale price of the units. And of course the land value rose very quickly.

Easy then!

Or was it?

House prices fell not long afterwards. Someone was holding land that wasn't worth £1m and it wasn't the company I worked for. Indeed at the time I worked for the third largest volume house builder. In comparison to the other nationals the group wrote down it's land bank by a small amount, whilst other companies were writing off considerable amounts.

I recall recanting this story on TMF in the early 2000's. I said then that the time to buy housebuilders is when they look so cheap it appears they could be going to the wall. And that takes incredible guts and is not for everyone.

That aside I think the book value of a housebuilder does provide some element by which to time a purchase. Although that in itself does not prevent the value of the land asset from being revalued and in particular it being reduced.

AiY(D)

micrographia
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Re: Persimmon announces its half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

#524299

Postby micrographia » August 22nd, 2022, 11:27 am

moorfield wrote:
Having chosen your shares, simply buy and hold forever. Do not be tempted to meddle, and try not to let press comment on your companies influence you. Do not worry about the fluctuations in the underlying capital value of your shares that are certain to occur.


Remember that ?


Late to this. Bought my little holding in PSN back in the mid-noughties in the full knowledge that UK house builders were cyclical, but never expected them to be such an extreme example of income bust/boom :D . It's been almost entertaining watching them go from 7 years of famine to throwing randomly large chunks of cash at me. They recently did a right number on a nearby protected hedgerow though and house builders in general are despised around here - maybe another example of the axiom that you should invest in companies that everyone hates. On which basis I'll continue to hold :lol: .

EEM


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