Arb HYP adjustment

[Arborbridge]

As mentioned in my previous adjustment post, ABRDN would be a front runner. This morning it was lying second in the table to RIO and since there was some accumulated cash in that account, I bought enough to bring Abrdn up to x1 median strength. After the topup, the top of the table looks like this:-



This also includes the minor adjustment for UKW which received a topup in Nov as part of the open offer.
The average yield is now 5.28% and it's interesting to see Sainsbury back in the running, though the yield is probably too low to put it in the frame. In any case, there is a shortage of cash in all accounts, so topups may be in obeyance for a while.

Arb.

[Arborbridge]

I made a small addition today, bringing PHP up to median strength. That share was 7th in my table, and is now 21st. Unfortunately, my holding is still 10% under water, so the income at present is" expensively bought", though I am still confident it'll be alright on the night. For reference, the top of my table 37 share HYP looks like this:-


Abrdn, Schroders and UK Wind look likely contenders if more capital becomes available. UKW has done well for share price recently as one might expect, but I think there's still a worthwhile investment to be had.
In view of the Ukraine situation, I wouldn't blame anyone for sitting on their hands for a while, but I hope PHP will be fairly insulated from that turmoil as regards dividends.

Arb.

[idpickering]

I made a small addition today, bringing PHP up to median strength. That share was 7th in my table, and is now 21st. Unfortunately, my holding is still 10% under water, so the income at present is" expensively bought", though I am still confident it'll be alright on the night. For reference, the top of my table 37 share HYP looks like this:-


Abrdn, Schroders and UK Wind look likely contenders if more capital becomes available. UKW has done well for share price recently as one might expect, but I think there's still a worthwhile investment to be had.
In view of the Ukraine situation, I wouldn't blame anyone for sitting on their hands for a while, but I hope PHP will be fairly insulated from that turmoil as regards dividends.

Arb.

Thanks for the update Arb. You might recall I topped up my PHP holdings recently, and do intend buying more of the share. I'm slightly more under water with them than you, but we all know here that that is not what HYP is about. I like the diversification they bring to my HYP.

As for sitting on my hands, I'm not doing that, and shall continue investing/HYPing as I've always done, and thinking longer term than these recent events such as Ukraine etc. UKW and Schroders none voting are in my sights too.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Thanks for the update Arb. You might recall I topped up my PHP holdings recently, and do intend buying more of the share. I'm slightly more under water with them than you, but we all know here that that is not what HYP is about. I like the diversification they bring to my HYP.

As for sitting on my hands, I'm not doing that, and shall continue investing/HYPing as I've always done, and thinking longer term than these recent events such as Ukraine etc. UKW and Schroders none voting are in my sights too.

Ian.

There is merit in keeping some powder dry. If the shooting starts in earnest you could have a choice of good bargains - though I am not suggesting anyone should stop investing. I believe in buying through every crisis.

UKS and SChroders would be my choices, above abdrn, if only becaue they have had less capital devoted to them.

Arb.

[idpickering]

There is merit in keeping some powder dry. If the shooting starts in earnest you could have a choice of good bargains - though I am not suggesting anyone should stop investing. I believe in buying through every crisis.

UKS and SChroders would be my choices, above abdrn, if only becaue they have had less capital devoted to them.

Arb.

Thanks for your input Arb. I do get where you're coming from. My account is currently set up to buy more Phoenix Group next month. Others in my sights are PHP, Schroders non-voting, and Unilever over the coming months. I shall make my mind up nearer the time on each though, but as you imply there might be other bargains on offer soon too.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Having found some free cash down the back of the sofa, today I topped up Unilever and SDRC. SDRC was 4th in my topup table: it is now tenth. Unilever was one of those 'out-of-the-rules' topups made because the yield is near the best one can expect from this company. ULVR now has 1.25x median as capital weight and is forecast to provide 2.3% of my income.

After these purchases, the top of my HYP topup table looks like this:-



For next top up, the only ones in this list obviously in doubt as regards eligibility are CSN, RIO and LLOY either on percentage of income or capital in the case of Lloyds.

Arb.

[kempiejon]

For next top up, the only ones in this list obviously in doubt as regards eligibility are CSN, RIO and LLOY either on percentage of income or capital in the case of Lloyds.

I know limits on good money after bad but Lloyds on 2.5% cover and 5.3% forecast yield looks the ticket but the shonky divi history rules out Lloyds for me.

[idpickering]

Thanks for the update Arb. SDRC are my chosen pick for this month’s top up in my HYP too.
As for Lloyds, and or HSBC, I’m still a bit wary of them, and don’t intend buying either any time soon.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Thanks for the update Arb. SDRC are my chosen pick for this month’s top up in my HYP too.
As for Lloyds, and or HSBC, I’m still a bit wary of them, and don’t intend buying either any time soon.

Ian.

There's some sort of cycle in my buying occasionally, though I'm not sure what the cause is. I notice my previous topup of SDRC was also in March (2019), but then I went to check and found that all five of my topups of SDRC have either been in March or April.

Arb.

[Arborbridge]

May/June potential: Here's my top dozen shares in my HYPTUSS by topup ranking:-



Of these, abdrn and PSN are definite potentials as there is cash in that particular account, and I cannot see any reason to exclude them. PSN is close to its ceiling as it provides 4.2% of my income. The forecast yield is showing as 11% - does anyone have a useful comment about this? Is it real?

Sainsburys creeps up, and ought to be enjoying a topup - except that Avivia, just below it has a higher income. There are some excellent candidates lower down, all of which are valid choices and only RIO is completely excluded as it already provides nearly 6% of income. CSN and LLOY are also near their ceilings so would probably not make the cut.
All things being equal, I will probably go with the top choice/choices - though UKW is quite tempting even though the yield is not so great.

Arb.

[BullDog]

May/June potential: Here's my top dozen shares in my HYPTUSS by topup ranking:-



Of these, abdrn and PSN are definite potentials as there is cash in that particular account, and I cannot see any reason to exclude them. PSN is close to its ceiling as it provides 4.2% of my income. The forecast yield is showing as 11% - does anyone have a useful comment about this? Is it real?

Sainsburys creeps up, and ought to be enjoying a topup - except that Avivia, just below it has a higher income. There are some excellent candidates lower down, all of which are valid choices and only RIO is completely excluded as it already provides nearly 6% of income. CSN and LLOY are also near their ceilings so would probably not make the cut.
All things being equal, I will probably go with the top choice/choices - though UKW is quite tempting even though the yield is not so great.

Arb.

I have been looking at DS Smith again lately, the shares have pulled back quite a bit from recent highs. I sold at over 400p. Your yield looks high? I make the yield nearer 4%. At a 5.3% yield, I would be buying DS Smith. Thanks.

[Arborbridge]

May/June potential: Here's my top dozen shares in my HYPTUSS by topup ranking:-



Of these, abdrn and PSN are definite potentials as there is cash in that particular account, and I cannot see any reason to exclude them. PSN is close to its ceiling as it provides 4.2% of my income. The forecast yield is showing as 11% - does anyone have a useful comment about this? Is it real?

Sainsburys creeps up, and ought to be enjoying a topup - except that Avivia, just below it has a higher income. There are some excellent candidates lower down, all of which are valid choices and only RIO is completely excluded as it already provides nearly 6% of income. CSN and LLOY are also near their ceilings so would probably not make the cut.
All things being equal, I will probably go with the top choice/choices - though UKW is quite tempting even though the yield is not so great.

Arb.

I have been looking at DS Smith again lately, the shares have pulled back quite a bit from recent highs. I sold at over 400p. Your yield looks high? I make the yield nearer 4%. At a 5.3% yield, I would be buying DS Smith. Thanks.

The current yield is 4.3%, but the 5.3% is the forecast yield. Certainly a good company, and I was surprised it didn't do so well in the pandemic.

[BullDog]

May/June potential: Here's my top dozen shares in my HYPTUSS by topup ranking:-



Of these, abdrn and PSN are definite potentials as there is cash in that particular account, and I cannot see any reason to exclude them. PSN is close to its ceiling as it provides 4.2% of my income. The forecast yield is showing as 11% - does anyone have a useful comment about this? Is it real?

Sainsburys creeps up, and ought to be enjoying a topup - except that Avivia, just below it has a higher income. There are some excellent candidates lower down, all of which are valid choices and only RIO is completely excluded as it already provides nearly 6% of income. CSN and LLOY are also near their ceilings so would probably not make the cut.
All things being equal, I will probably go with the top choice/choices - though UKW is quite tempting even though the yield is not so great.

Arb.

I have been looking at DS Smith again lately, the shares have pulled back quite a bit from recent highs. I sold at over 400p. Your yield looks high? I make the yield nearer 4%. At a 5.3% yield, I would be buying DS Smith. Thanks.

The current yield is 4.3%, but the 5.3% is the forecast yield. Certainly a good company, and I was surprised it didn't do so well in the pandemic.

Ah, thanks. Then I am tempted to swap some Shell (lower yielding) for some DS Smith.

[moorfield]

Well Arb, if your F'cast Cover figures are right and you want to keep within your Income and Cost percentages,

then IMB is the stand-out candidate for topping up now, surely?

[Arborbridge]

Well Arb, if your F'cast Cover figures are right and you want to keep within your Income and Cost percentages,

then IMB is the stand-out candidate for topping up now, surely?

A good candidate, but not near the top according to Terry's method, so hardly a stand out in that sense. However, you are making me picker over it

So many good choices here, but I guess in time they will all come to the front of the topup queue if they persist.

Arb.

[moorfield]

Well Arb, if your F'cast Cover figures are right and you want to keep within your Income and Cost percentages,

then IMB is the stand-out candidate for topping up now, surely?

A good candidate, but not near the top according to Terry's method, so hardly a stand out in that sense. However, you are making me picker over it

So many good choices here, but I guess in time they will all come to the front of the topup queue if they persist.

Arb.

But what's the point of having your method (other than giving you something to fill your time), if you are not going to select abrdn ? Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ?

[kempiejon]

But what's the point of having your method (other than giving you something to fill your time), if you are not going to select abrdn ? Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ?

To shorlist for more detailed checking re dividend history, cover, debt, sectorial diversification etc surley?
I usually eliminate the top few each time I look at my HYPTUSS

[Itsallaguess]

But what's the point of having your method (other than giving you something to fill your time), if you are not going to select abrdn ? Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ?

To shortlist for more detailed checking re dividend history, cover, debt, sectorial diversification etc sureley?

I usually eliminate the top few each time I look at my HYPTUSS

I can't actually remember the last time I'd have bought something at the top of the ranking list, and like you, I would always use it as a ranking suggestion for 'best bang for buck' in terms of an income-sweet-spot, but would never blindly buy anything just because it might be top of the list.

It was never designed to deliver that sort of 'mechanical purchase' solution, and was always intended as a ranked list of suggested purchases for further investigation, and quite often such investigations would quite rightly pick up on good reasons to move on down the list...

Think of it as the date-discounted area of the supermarket. You still might look there for something that you like, rather than simply selecting the cheapest thing on the shelves...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[moorfield]

But what's the point of having your method (other than giving you something to fill your time), if you are not going to select abrdn ? Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ?

To shorlist for more detailed checking re dividend history, cover, debt, sectorial diversification etc surley?
I usually eliminate the top few each time I look at my HYPTUSS

Precisement. Yet Arb wrote:

A good candidate, but not near the top according to Terry's method, so hardly a stand out in that sense.

There is no share in that shortlist with a higher f'cast yield and cover than IMB, ergo: stand out

[Arborbridge]

Well Arb, if your F'cast Cover figures are right and you want to keep within your Income and Cost percentages,

then IMB is the stand-out candidate for topping up now, surely?

A good candidate, but not near the top according to Terry's method, so hardly a stand out in that sense. However, you are making me picker over it

So many good choices here, but I guess in time they will all come to the front of the topup queue if they persist.

Arb.

But what's the point of having your method (other than giving you something to fill your time), if you are not going to select abrdn ? Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ?

Then there's nothing to discuss, surely ? Hypers - nothing to discuss?

It's interesting to note that although most of us would picker over the choice, TJH who came up with this scheme almost never does. He would topup the first valid choice in a mechanistic way. Only very occasionally has he swerved from that path.

Arb.