PYAD HYP 2019_04 DRAWDOWN – Year 1 - January Commentary

[IanTHughes]

The latest update for this HYP constructed by pyad, as recorded on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=16868&start=140

Has been posted here: viewtopic.php?p=274972#p274972

Further details of how updates are to be made to this portfolio can be found on this thread: viewtopic.php?p=218513#p218513

It struck me that there may be those that wish to comment on my management of this HYP since it was set up by pyad, back in April 2019. Comments are of course welcome although it would be appreciated if they were confined to this thread, leaving the main thread to simply record all actions taken. In due course I will add to the main thread, a link to this thread.


Ian

[funduffer]

Well it looks like it has made a decent start - no major disasters, although if memory serves me, I think VOD cut its dividend just after first purchase.

If you assume a similar income in Q4 to Q1-3, then the yield is about 5.7% - pretty decent.

My only question is why there is no income from Pennon? Shouldn't there have been a dividend in September, or was this purchased after XD date?

FD

[IanTHughes]

Well it looks like it has made a decent start - no major disasters, although if memory serves me, I think VOD cut its dividend just after first purchase.

If you assume a similar income in Q4 to Q1-3, then the yield is about 5.7% - pretty decent.

My only question is why there is no income from Pennon? Shouldn't there have been a dividend in September, or was this purchased after XD date?

Yes, Vodafone Group (VOD) did reduce its dividend which was announced about 8 weeks after it was included in this virtual HYP - more than halved it in fact. Mind you the share price responded positively as the cut was already expected by the market. The dividend now received (4.16 Euro cents - 3.7251 Pence), together with a second that is now ex-dividend (4.50 Euro cents - 3.8416 Pence) means a yield of 5.11% based on the original purchase price of 148.00p.

Income in Q4 is currently forecast to be £2,438.34, making an annual total for the first year of this portfolio of £14,603.41, which gives a yield of 5.73% based on the original cash input. The forecast is based on a number of dividends that have not yet been declared, which means that last year's figures are used, so the true yield may be higher. Also, a few holdings were bought when the shares were ex-dividend, meaning that those amounts are not shown as being received when of course next year they will be, again pushing up the yield. We shall see in due course.

Pennon Group (PNN) was purchased on the 9 October 2019 using the proceeds of the sale of Greene King PLC (GNK), which was sold pending its takeover. Although a dividend was received for GNK before its sale (£552.90), the first dividend for PNN since its purchase (13.66pps) was only announced on 26 November 2019. An amount of £259.54 will be received on 3 April 2020, which is of course the last day of this first year.


Ian

[Wizard]

Annual Report 05 April 2020...

Current Portfolio: Holdings

EPIC | Company                | Shares  | Cost (£)   | Price (p)   | Value (£)    | Value (%) | P/L (£)      | Ex-Div (£) | Div Rec'd (£) | To-Date(£) | Overall (£) | Yield (%) * | Year Div (£)
AV   | Aviva                  |  4,134  | 16,887.39  |   233.6000  |    9,657.02  |     5.24% |   -7,230.37  |      0.00  |     1,100.18  |  1,100.18  |  -6,130.19  |      13.23% |    1,277.40 
BA   | BAE Systems            |  3,043  | 14,995.20  |   500.0000  |   15,215.00  |     8.26% |      219.80  |      0.00  |       687.71  |    687.71  |     907.51  |       1.88% |      286.04 
BHP  | BHP Group              |    838  | 14,992.51  | 1,241.2000  |   10,401.26  |     5.65% |   -4,591.25  |      0.00  |       944.08  |    944.08  |  -3,647.17  |       9.29% |      966.71 
BLND | British Land Company   |  1,273  |  7,494.24  |   314.5000  |    4,003.59  |     2.17% |   -3,490.65  |      0.00  |       301.87  |    301.87  |  -3,188.78  |       7.61% |      304.85 
BP   | BP                     |  1,717  |  9,379.72  |   337.3000  |    5,791.44  |     3.14% |   -3,588.28  |      0.00  |       495.46  |    495.46  |  -3,092.82  |      10.05% |      581.75 
CCL  | Carnival Corporation   |    384  | 14,979.79  |   614.8000  |    2,360.83  |     1.28% |  -12,618.96  |      0.00  |       610.18  |    610.18  | -12,008.78  |      19.68% |      464.66 
GSK  | GlaxoSmithKline        |    941  | 14,999.37  | 1,489.4000  |   14,015.25  |     7.61% |     -984.12  |    216.43  |       536.37  |    752.80  |    -231.32  |       5.37% |      752.80 
HSBA | HSBC Holdings          |  2,425  | 14,998.27  |   397.2000  |    9,632.10  |     5.23% |   -5,366.17  |      0.00  |       573.99  |    573.99  |  -4,792.18  |       0.00% |        0.00 
IBST | Ibstock                |  5,849  | 14,999.47  |   148.4000  |    8,679.92  |     4.71% |   -6,319.55  |      0.00  |       859.79  |    859.79  |  -5,459.76  |       2.16% |      187.16 
IGG  | IG Group Holdings      |  2,762  | 14,999.32  |   667.5000  |   18,436.35  |    10.01% |    3,437.03  |      0.00  |     1,193.17  |  1,193.17  |   4,630.20  |       6.47% |    1,193.18 
IMB  | Imperial Brands        |    568  | 14,988.79  | 1,563.5000  |    8,880.68  |     4.82% |   -6,108.11  |      0.00  |     1,173.31  |  1,173.31  |  -4,934.80  |      13.21% |    1,173.26 
ITV  | ITV                    | 11,652  | 14,999.08  |    54.4200  |    6,341.02  |     3.44% |   -8,658.06  |      0.00  |       932.15  |    932.15  |  -7,725.91  |       4.78% |      302.95 
LAND | Land Securities Group  |    818  |  7,499.19  |   514.6000  |    4,209.43  |     2.29% |   -3,289.76  |      0.00  |       285.05  |    285.05  |  -3,004.71  |       6.77% |      285.07 
PNN  | Pennon Group           |  1,900  | 15,406.25  | 1,045.0000  |   19,855.00  |    10.78% |    4,448.75  |      0.00  |       259.54  |    259.54  |   4,708.29  |       4.01% |      795.72 
RDSB | Royal Dutch Shell      |    309  |  7,481.66  | 1,418.4000  |    4,382.86  |     2.38% |   -3,098.80  |      0.00  |       454.55  |    454.55  |  -2,644.25  |      10.69% |      468.63 
SLA  | Standard Life Aberdeen |  5,503  | 14,997.65  |   192.9000  |   10,615.29  |     5.76% |   -4,382.36  |    786.92  |     1,188.63  |  1,975.55  |  -2,406.81  |      11.20% |    1,188.64 
SMDS | DS Smith               |  4,310  | 14,997.11  |   254.7000  |   10,977.57  |     5.96% |   -4,019.54  |      0.00  |       698.22  |    698.22  |  -3,321.32  |       6.44% |      706.84 
VOD  | Vodafone Group         | 10,077  | 14,998.48  |   111.0200  |   11,187.49  |     6.07% |   -3,810.99  |      0.00  |       758.07  |    758.07  |  -3,052.92  |       6.97% |      779.37 
WPP  | WPP                    |  1,780  | 14,997.55  |   483.7000  |    8,609.86  |     4.67% |   -6,387.69  |      0.00  |     1,068.00  |  1,068.00  |  -5,319.69  |       4.69% |      404.06 
     |                        |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Sub Total:             |         |            |             | £183,251.96  |    99.46% | -£75,839.08  | £1,003.35  |               |            |             |       6.61% |  £12,119.09 
     | Cash Balance:          |         |            |             |       £0.00  |     0.00% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Ex-Dividend:           |         |            |             |   £1,003.35  |     0.55% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     |                        |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Total Value:           |         |            |             | £184,255.31  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | From:                  |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Cash In:               |         |            |             | £254,904.77  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | LESS Cash Out:         |         |            |             | -£14,675.24  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Dividends Received:    |         |            |             |  £14,673.22  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Ex-Dividend:           |         |            |             |   £1,003.35  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Realised P/L:          |         |            | GNK         |   £4,188.29  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Un-Realised P/L:       |         |            |             | -£75,839.08  |           |        0.00  |            |               |            |             |             |             
     |                        |         |            |             |              |    XIRR   |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Total:                 |         |            |             | £184,255.31  |   -22.34% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             

…

Income: To-Date

Year Start | Q1         | Q2         | Q3         | Q4         | Total       | Year End 
06-Apr-19  | £3,919.13  | £4,576.80  | £3,669.14  | £2,508.15  | £14,673.22  | 05-Apr-20

Seven of the original holdings were already Ex-Dividend on purchase, meaning that the income received did not represent a full year.

With regard to the future, I have attempted to keep up with all the suspensions/cancellations over the past few weeks but I do not believe it is currently possible to make a sensible estimate of the income to be received during the next year. We shall have to wait and see.

Income: Monthly Forecast

Date      | Amount (£)  |         
05-May-20 |     449.17  |         
05-Jun-20 |   1,671.59  |         
03-Jul-20 |     440.25  |         
05-Aug-20 |     750.08  |         
04-Sep-20 |     536.18  |         
05-Oct-20 |   2,198.90  |         
05-Nov-20 |   1,892.17  |         
04-Dec-20 |     690.60  |         
05-Jan-21 |     921.30  |         
05-Feb-21 |     178.79  |         
05-Mar-21 |     864.54  |         
01-Apr-21 |   1,265.83  |         
          |             | Average 
12 Months | £11,859.40  | £988.28 

Ian

Are you maintaining the forecast of income?

This portfolio's forecast income generation must have been very severely hit by now. Of the shares in the portfolio I believe the following ten have cancelled at least the next dividend:
Aviva
BAe
British Land
Carnival
DS Smith
HSBC
Ibstock
ITV
Land Securities
WPP

Taking account of split sector buys in REITs and Oil & Gas the total number of 'full units' in the original portfolio was 17, now more than half have cut. Does that mean forecast income from this portfolio on a rolling 12 month basis is down by over 50% already?

[Wizard]

Annual Report 05 April 2020...

Current Portfolio: Holdings

EPIC | Company                | Shares  | Cost (£)   | Price (p)   | Value (£)    | Value (%) | P/L (£)      | Ex-Div (£) | Div Rec'd (£) | To-Date(£) | Overall (£) | Yield (%) * | Year Div (£)
AV   | Aviva                  |  4,134  | 16,887.39  |   233.6000  |    9,657.02  |     5.24% |   -7,230.37  |      0.00  |     1,100.18  |  1,100.18  |  -6,130.19  |      13.23% |    1,277.40 
BA   | BAE Systems            |  3,043  | 14,995.20  |   500.0000  |   15,215.00  |     8.26% |      219.80  |      0.00  |       687.71  |    687.71  |     907.51  |       1.88% |      286.04 
BHP  | BHP Group              |    838  | 14,992.51  | 1,241.2000  |   10,401.26  |     5.65% |   -4,591.25  |      0.00  |       944.08  |    944.08  |  -3,647.17  |       9.29% |      966.71 
BLND | British Land Company   |  1,273  |  7,494.24  |   314.5000  |    4,003.59  |     2.17% |   -3,490.65  |      0.00  |       301.87  |    301.87  |  -3,188.78  |       7.61% |      304.85 
BP   | BP                     |  1,717  |  9,379.72  |   337.3000  |    5,791.44  |     3.14% |   -3,588.28  |      0.00  |       495.46  |    495.46  |  -3,092.82  |      10.05% |      581.75 
CCL  | Carnival Corporation   |    384  | 14,979.79  |   614.8000  |    2,360.83  |     1.28% |  -12,618.96  |      0.00  |       610.18  |    610.18  | -12,008.78  |      19.68% |      464.66 
GSK  | GlaxoSmithKline        |    941  | 14,999.37  | 1,489.4000  |   14,015.25  |     7.61% |     -984.12  |    216.43  |       536.37  |    752.80  |    -231.32  |       5.37% |      752.80 
HSBA | HSBC Holdings          |  2,425  | 14,998.27  |   397.2000  |    9,632.10  |     5.23% |   -5,366.17  |      0.00  |       573.99  |    573.99  |  -4,792.18  |       0.00% |        0.00 
IBST | Ibstock                |  5,849  | 14,999.47  |   148.4000  |    8,679.92  |     4.71% |   -6,319.55  |      0.00  |       859.79  |    859.79  |  -5,459.76  |       2.16% |      187.16 
IGG  | IG Group Holdings      |  2,762  | 14,999.32  |   667.5000  |   18,436.35  |    10.01% |    3,437.03  |      0.00  |     1,193.17  |  1,193.17  |   4,630.20  |       6.47% |    1,193.18 
IMB  | Imperial Brands        |    568  | 14,988.79  | 1,563.5000  |    8,880.68  |     4.82% |   -6,108.11  |      0.00  |     1,173.31  |  1,173.31  |  -4,934.80  |      13.21% |    1,173.26 
ITV  | ITV                    | 11,652  | 14,999.08  |    54.4200  |    6,341.02  |     3.44% |   -8,658.06  |      0.00  |       932.15  |    932.15  |  -7,725.91  |       4.78% |      302.95 
LAND | Land Securities Group  |    818  |  7,499.19  |   514.6000  |    4,209.43  |     2.29% |   -3,289.76  |      0.00  |       285.05  |    285.05  |  -3,004.71  |       6.77% |      285.07 
PNN  | Pennon Group           |  1,900  | 15,406.25  | 1,045.0000  |   19,855.00  |    10.78% |    4,448.75  |      0.00  |       259.54  |    259.54  |   4,708.29  |       4.01% |      795.72 
RDSB | Royal Dutch Shell      |    309  |  7,481.66  | 1,418.4000  |    4,382.86  |     2.38% |   -3,098.80  |      0.00  |       454.55  |    454.55  |  -2,644.25  |      10.69% |      468.63 
SLA  | Standard Life Aberdeen |  5,503  | 14,997.65  |   192.9000  |   10,615.29  |     5.76% |   -4,382.36  |    786.92  |     1,188.63  |  1,975.55  |  -2,406.81  |      11.20% |    1,188.64 
SMDS | DS Smith               |  4,310  | 14,997.11  |   254.7000  |   10,977.57  |     5.96% |   -4,019.54  |      0.00  |       698.22  |    698.22  |  -3,321.32  |       6.44% |      706.84 
VOD  | Vodafone Group         | 10,077  | 14,998.48  |   111.0200  |   11,187.49  |     6.07% |   -3,810.99  |      0.00  |       758.07  |    758.07  |  -3,052.92  |       6.97% |      779.37 
WPP  | WPP                    |  1,780  | 14,997.55  |   483.7000  |    8,609.86  |     4.67% |   -6,387.69  |      0.00  |     1,068.00  |  1,068.00  |  -5,319.69  |       4.69% |      404.06 
     |                        |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Sub Total:             |         |            |             | £183,251.96  |    99.46% | -£75,839.08  | £1,003.35  |               |            |             |       6.61% |  £12,119.09 
     | Cash Balance:          |         |            |             |       £0.00  |     0.00% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Ex-Dividend:           |         |            |             |   £1,003.35  |     0.55% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     |                        |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Total Value:           |         |            |             | £184,255.31  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | From:                  |         |            |             |              |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Cash In:               |         |            |             | £254,904.77  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | LESS Cash Out:         |         |            |             | -£14,675.24  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Dividends Received:    |         |            |             |  £14,673.22  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Ex-Dividend:           |         |            |             |   £1,003.35  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Realised P/L:          |         |            | GNK         |   £4,188.29  |           |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Un-Realised P/L:       |         |            |             | -£75,839.08  |           |        0.00  |            |               |            |             |             |             
     |                        |         |            |             |              |    XIRR   |              |            |               |            |             |             |             
     | Total:                 |         |            |             | £184,255.31  |   -22.34% |              |            |               |            |             |             |             

…

Income: To-Date

Year Start | Q1         | Q2         | Q3         | Q4         | Total       | Year End 
06-Apr-19  | £3,919.13  | £4,576.80  | £3,669.14  | £2,508.15  | £14,673.22  | 05-Apr-20

Seven of the original holdings were already Ex-Dividend on purchase, meaning that the income received did not represent a full year.

With regard to the future, I have attempted to keep up with all the suspensions/cancellations over the past few weeks but I do not believe it is currently possible to make a sensible estimate of the income to be received during the next year. We shall have to wait and see.

Income: Monthly Forecast

Date      | Amount (£)  |         
05-May-20 |     449.17  |         
05-Jun-20 |   1,671.59  |         
03-Jul-20 |     440.25  |         
05-Aug-20 |     750.08  |         
04-Sep-20 |     536.18  |         
05-Oct-20 |   2,198.90  |         
05-Nov-20 |   1,892.17  |         
04-Dec-20 |     690.60  |         
05-Jan-21 |     921.30  |         
05-Feb-21 |     178.79  |         
05-Mar-21 |     864.54  |         
01-Apr-21 |   1,265.83  |         
          |             | Average 
12 Months | £11,859.40  | £988.28 

Ian

Are you maintaining the forecast of income?

This portfolio's forecast income generation must have been very severely hit by now. Of the shares in the portfolio I believe the following ten have cancelled at least the next dividend:
Aviva
BAe
British Land
Carnival
DS Smith
HSBC
Ibstock
ITV
Land Securities
WPP

Taking account of split sector buys in REITs and Oil & Gas the total number of 'full units' in the original portfolio was 17, now more than half have cut. Does that mean forecast income from this portfolio on a rolling 12 month basis is down by over 50% already?

Ian

Do you know what the current percentage drop in income is for this portfolio? I get the sense it may be more than the drop many are reporting.

[IanTHughes]

Are you maintaining the forecast of income?

This portfolio's forecast income generation must have been very severely hit by now. Of the shares in the portfolio I believe the following ten have cancelled at least the next dividend:
Aviva
BAe
British Land
Carnival
DS Smith
HSBC
Ibstock
ITV
Land Securities
WPP

Taking account of split sector buys in REITs and Oil & Gas the total number of 'full units' in the original portfolio was 17, now more than half have cut. Does that mean forecast income from this portfolio on a rolling 12 month basis is down by over 50% already?

Do you know what the current percentage drop in income is for this portfolio? I get the sense it may be more than the drop many are reporting.

Do you know what the current percentage drop in income is for this portfolio? I get the sense it may be more than the drop many are reporting.

I am attempting to keep up with the suspensions and cuts but I am sorry that I cannot say that the current forecast is anywhere near correct. Not only may I have missed one or more announcements of a dividend suspension but, even for those that I have recorded, I am still in most cases unsure as to whether to cancel the whole year's dividend or simply the next one due for payment.

I will of course be checking very carefully at each dividend payment date so the historical record should always be correct but, for now at least, the forecast is very much a "finger in the air" estimate, sorry.

Of course the full details of the portfolio, including the number of shares in each holding, are recorded correctly. If you want to calculate what the forecast income should be based on your own understanding as what the suspensions will be, it should not be that difficult.


Ian

[Wizard]

I have had a rough and ready crack at the impact on income for this portfolio. Column 2 shows the dividends paid over the last 12 months. Column 3 shows either the same dividend paid, i.e. no increase and no cut, or it is set to zero as the company has announced a suspension. Unlikely to end up this way, but as I say, rough and ready...



I make that a c.47% cut in income on the basis of the calculation above. That seems worse than many of the portfolios reported by others.

[Wizard]

I have had a rough and ready crack at the impact on income for this portfolio. Column 2 shows the dividends paid over the last 12 months. Column 3 shows either the same dividend paid, i.e. no increase and no cut, or it is set to zero as the company has announced a suspension. Unlikely to end up this way, but as I say, rough and ready...



I make that a c.47% cut in income on the basis of the calculation above. That seems worse than many of the portfolios reported by others.

I now see WPP dropped off, I'll look to add that when I am next on the computer.

[IanTHughes]

I have had a rough and ready crack at the impact on income for this portfolio. Column 2 shows the dividends paid over the last 12 months. Column 3 shows either the same dividend paid, i.e. no increase and no cut, or it is set to zero as the company has announced a suspension. Unlikely to end up this way, but as I say, rough and ready...



I make that a c.47% cut in income on the basis of the calculation above. That seems worse than many of the portfolios reported by others.

You are of course taking the absolute worst possible scenario for those holdings where a suspension of dividends has been announced - no dividend income before at least April 2021. This is why I decided to err on the side of caution and say that I simply cannot make any such forecast.

Also why is this portfolio worse than many others? For one thing, which other portfolios have been reported here? Secondly, looking at the list of cuts and suspensions so far announced, I would say that just about any HYP worthy of the name will have a hatful of such shares. How do you calculate that this portfolio is worse?


Ian

[Wizard]

OK, I have added WPP, which I missed in my previous table. This rough and ready calculation shows a 50% drop in dividend income between the last and next 12 months. But it is a crude estimate.



An income reduction just nudging over the 50% level.

[Wizard]

I have had a rough and ready crack at the impact on income for this portfolio. Column 2 shows the dividends paid over the last 12 months. Column 3 shows either the same dividend paid, i.e. no increase and no cut, or it is set to zero as the company has announced a suspension. Unlikely to end up this way, but as I say, rough and ready...



I make that a c.47% cut in income on the basis of the calculation above. That seems worse than many of the portfolios reported by others.

You are of course taking the absolute worst possible scenario for those holdings where a suspension of dividends has been announced - no dividend income before at least April 2021. This is why I decided to err on the side of caution and say that I simply cannot make any such forecast.

Also why is this portfolio worse than many others? Which other portfolio shave been reported here? Looking at the list of cuts and suspensions so far announced, I would say that just about any HYP worthy of the name will have a hatful of such shares. How do you calculate that this portfolio is worse?


Ian

Well, worst case given cuts announced so far, you are right it assumes no resumption in the next 12 months which may not be correct. Of course more cuts may mean it is underestimating the loss of income. You suggested I have a go at the calculation myself, so I did what you suggested, I made it clear it was a crude estimate. As for other portfolios, so far I do not recall anyone saying they had lost 50% of forecast income. No calculation, just memory.

[IanTHughes]

Also why is this portfolio worse than many others? Which other portfolio shave been reported here? Looking at the list of cuts and suspensions so far announced, I would say that just about any HYP worthy of the name will have a hatful of such shares. How do you calculate that this portfolio is worse?

As for other portfolios, so far I do not recall anyone saying they had lost 50% of forecast income. No calculation, just memory.

Just because no-one has reported it does not make it so. For a true comparison one would have to look at a whole portfolio and also make the same assumptions you have made about no dividend income from those suspensions before April 2021. I ask again, who so far has done that for any other portfolio?


Ian

[Dod101]

Nothing to do with the virus but I expect that Imperial Brands will probably cut its dividend in the next 12 months and quite possibly others because of it.

It always was a very poor selection of shares but possibly no worse than a number of HYPs.

Dod

[IanTHughes]

Nothing to do with the virus but I expect that Imperial Brands will probably cut its dividend in the next 12 months and quite possibly others because of it.

Why?

It always was a very poor selection of shares but possibly no worse than a number of HYPs.

Is that statement based on any analysis at all or is it simply because this portfolio was selected by pyad?


Ian

[Wizard]

Also why is this portfolio worse than many others? Which other portfolio shave been reported here? Looking at the list of cuts and suspensions so far announced, I would say that just about any HYP worthy of the name will have a hatful of such shares. How do you calculate that this portfolio is worse?

As for other portfolios, so far I do not recall anyone saying they had lost 50% of forecast income. No calculation, just memory.

Just because no-one has reported it does not make it so. For a true comparison one would have to look at a whole portfolio and also make the same assumptions you have made about no dividend income from those suspensions before April 2021. I ask again, who so far has done that for any other portfolio?


Ian

Take it or leave it, up to you. You didn't want to do the calculation, so I did. I have a suspicion you didn't want to do the calculation because you knew pretty much what the answer was and did not want to post it. I have not seen anyone else report a 50% loss, that is all I said. If you want to do more work on this knock yourself out. I have the answer I was looking for, it looks like the income in this portfolio has been very badly hit, that is all I was looking to check.

[Wizard]

Nothing to do with the virus but I expect that Imperial Brands will probably cut its dividend in the next 12 months and quite possibly others because of it.

Why?

It always was a very poor selection of shares but possibly no worse than a number of HYPs.

Is that statement based on any analysis at all or is it simply because this portfolio was selected by pyad?


Ian

Actually it was selected by PYAD and you. You added Pennon, we will never know what PYAD would have replaced Greene King with, but from what he said about utilities and the General Election I very much doubt it would have been Pennon. But Pennon has been one of the few bright spots, so at this very early stage it looks like you made a good choice.

[Dod101]

Imperial Brands may well cut its dividend in order to release funds for paying down debt and in any case its finances are somewhat stretched after paying 10% increases in the dividend for more years than it could really afford it. They have a new chairman in situ and a new CEO will be in situ shortly so the stage is set.

As for the share selection no portfolio of mine at the time it was selected would ever have held Aviva, BP, BAE, Carnival, British Land, Land Securities or Vodafone. I briefly held Vodafone some time ago and over the years have held both British Land and Land Securities but never made much of either. It was obvious to me that Brexit would affect both but now of course the virus has almost killed them.

Actively practising Strategic Ignorance of course encourages this sort of selection.

Dod

[Wasron]

My own HYP has 13 suspensions from 29 shares, so a 45% cut by number. I can’t work our the exact value without switching on my work laptop, which won’t be happening before Tuesday, but I’d say the suspensions have come from mid and high yielders alike, so 45% by value is probably close to it.

And the 45% is based on no more dividends from those who have suspended, but also Shell, BP, Imperial Brands, Johnson Matthey, Paypoint and Legal and General all making their expected regular dividend payments in 2020

Wasron

[IanTHughes]

As for other portfolios, so far I do not recall anyone saying they had lost 50% of forecast income. No calculation, just memory.

Just because no-one has reported it does not make it so. For a true comparison one would have to look at a whole portfolio and also make the same assumptions you have made about no dividend income from those suspensions before April 2021. I ask again, who so far has done that for any other portfolio?

Take it or leave it, up to you. You didn't want to do the calculation, so I did. I have a suspicion you didn't want to do the calculation because you knew pretty much what the answer was and did not want to post it.

Maybe you missed it but I quite clearly said:

I am attempting to keep up with the suspensions and cuts but I am sorry that I cannot say that the current forecast is anywhere near correct. Not only may I have missed one or more announcements of a dividend suspension but, even for those that I have recorded, I am still in most cases unsure as to whether to cancel the whole year's dividend or simply the next one due for payment.

I do not make forecasts in normal times, preferring to assume the same dividend as the year before until such a time as it is confirmed otherwise, which obviously is not going to work at the moment. Forecasting is a mug's game that I leave to those who think they are related to Mystic Meg

I have not seen anyone else report a 50% loss, that is all I said.

Actually, what you said was:

I make that a c.47% cut in income on the basis of the calculation above. That seems worse than many of the portfolios reported by others.

I ask again: who so far has done the same calculation for any other portfolio, let alone enough for you to make such a claim?

If you want to do more work on this knock yourself out. I have the answer I was looking for, it looks like the income in this portfolio has been very badly hit, that is all I was looking to check.

As I said, forecasting is a mug's game at the best of times and best left to those more qualified mugs than myself.

Mind you, I have to admit that your calculations, together with your unsubstantiated claims of other unreported portfolios, did at least get the answer you were looking for.


Ian

[IanTHughes]

Imperial Brands may well cut its dividend in order to release funds for paying down debt and in any case its finances are somewhat stretched after paying 10% increases in the dividend for more years than it could really afford it. They have a new chairman in situ and a new CEO will be in situ shortly so the stage is set.

Yes, they "may well cut" but then again, they may not. Maybe they will hold or lessen the recent increases. In fact, now I come to think of it, "almost anything" may happen.

As for the share selection no portfolio of mine at the time it was selected would ever have held Aviva, BP, BAE, Carnival, British Land, Land Securities or Vodafone. I briefly held Vodafone some time ago and over the years have held both British Land and Land Securities but never made much of either. It was obvious to me that Brexit would affect both but now of course the virus has almost killed them.

My apologies. It was not simply because pyad selected them but simply because you disagreed with pyad

Actively practising Strategic Ignorance of course encourages this sort of selection.

Oh I see, you think knowing the future is possible then?


Ian