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IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

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IanTHughes
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IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276418

Postby IanTHughes » January 10th, 2020, 1:48 pm

10 Jan 2020

That time of the month again .......

Following on from my latest Annual Report: viewtopic.php?p=274446#p274446

As a result of recently received dividends, the following small purchase was made today:

Top-Up
Date       |  EPIC  |  B/S  |Conc Bought|  Yield  |  Reason  |  New Conc
10-Jan-20 | AV | Buy | 0.17% | 7.28% | Top-Up | 2.75%


Well, that is all until 10 February when there should once again be sufficient cash to make another,slightly larger purchase.


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276476

Postby moorfield » January 10th, 2020, 4:30 pm

Snap, I have bought some AV. today too.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276707

Postby moorfield » January 11th, 2020, 1:57 pm

moorfield wrote:Snap, I have bought some AV. today too.


... and updating my records just now I see I first bought AV. exactly ten years ago in January 2010 at 409p collecting a dividend of 24.5p that year, and subsequently sold in May 2011 at 438p, which would have been part of first great reorganization of my portfolio following the early years of scattergun buying. I had completely forgotten I had held it previously. Price and dividend wise, little has changed.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276717

Postby Arborbridge » January 11th, 2020, 2:36 pm

moorfield wrote:
moorfield wrote:Snap, I have bought some AV. today too.


... and updating my records just now I see I first bought AV. exactly ten years ago in January 2010 at 409p collecting a dividend of 24.5p that year, and subsequently sold in May 2011 at 438p, which would have been part of first great reorganization of my portfolio following the early years of scattergun buying. I had completely forgotten I had held it previously. Price and dividend wise, little has changed.


And I notice my first purchase was in 2007 after it was featured as a HYP4 choice. The price? 768p. Still some way to go: I think the holding period for this one might need to be "eternity" :lol:
It was reckoned by some, at around that time (possibly Pyad), as a share to "bet the farm" on. My XIRR is 2.05% so I'm still waiting for it to come good.

Well, I'm comforting to see that Ian thinks it has a sustainable dividend, and I have no immediate plans to sell. It's even come on to the top up radar again.

Arb.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276722

Postby Dod101 » January 11th, 2020, 3:00 pm

I have never held for reasons well known to anyone who follows my ramblings. I would not be buying today either.

Dod

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276922

Postby IanTHughes » January 12th, 2020, 9:36 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
moorfield wrote:
moorfield wrote:Snap, I have bought some AV. today too.

... and updating my records just now I see I first bought AV. exactly ten years ago in January 2010 at 409p collecting a dividend of 24.5p that year, and subsequently sold in May 2011 at 438p, which would have been part of first great reorganization of my portfolio following the early years of scattergun buying. I had completely forgotten I had held it previously. Price and dividend wise, little has changed.

And I notice my first purchase was in 2007 after it was featured as a HYP4 choice. The price? 768p. Still some way to go: I think the holding period for this one might need to be "eternity" :lol:
It was reckoned by some, at around that time (possibly Pyad), as a share to "bet the farm" on. My XIRR is 2.05% so I'm still waiting for it to come good.

Well, I'm comforting to see that Ian thinks it has a sustainable dividend, and I have no immediate plans to sell. It's even come on to the top up radar again.

Oh please, do your own research as they say :shock:

My first purchase was way back in February 2012, one of four initial purchases for my then brand new HYP. In March 2013 the dividend was reduced :o There were those on The Motley Fool as was that told me to sell immediately. They knew that there would be no recovery :D although they never explained how they knew, crystal ball maybe? Thankfully I followed HYP doctrine and held on so that now the holding shows an annual return of 7.65%, with a dividend increasing over the last 5 years at an annual rate of over 10%. Not the best to be sure, about average for my portfolio as a whole, but considering the cut dividend and accompanying price fall, barely a year after purchase, not bad at all. This is my third top-up since October 2019 and probably will not be my last.


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276924

Postby MDW1954 » January 12th, 2020, 10:09 pm

I'm happy to hold, and have been thinking of topping-up. LGEN has the steadier record, but there's no arguing with the numbers.

MDW1954

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276956

Postby Arborbridge » January 13th, 2020, 8:08 am

IanTHughes wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
moorfield wrote:... and updating my records just now I see I first bought AV. exactly ten years ago in January 2010 at 409p collecting a dividend of 24.5p that year, and subsequently sold in May 2011 at 438p, which would have been part of first great reorganization of my portfolio following the early years of scattergun buying. I had completely forgotten I had held it previously. Price and dividend wise, little has changed.

And I notice my first purchase was in 2007 after it was featured as a HYP4 choice. The price? 768p. Still some way to go: I think the holding period for this one might need to be "eternity" :lol:
It was reckoned by some, at around that time (possibly Pyad), as a share to "bet the farm" on. My XIRR is 2.05% so I'm still waiting for it to come good.

Well, I'm comforting to see that Ian thinks it has a sustainable dividend, and I have no immediate plans to sell. It's even come on to the top up radar again.

Oh please, do your own research as they say :shock:

My first purchase was way back in February 2012, one of four initial purchases for my then brand new HYP. In March 2013 the dividend was reduced :o There were those on The Motley Fool as was that told me to sell immediately. They knew that there would be no recovery :D although they never explained how they knew, crystal ball maybe? Thankfully I followed HYP doctrine and held on so that now the holding shows an annual return of 7.65%, with a dividend increasing over the last 5 years at an annual rate of over 10%. Not the best to be sure, about average for my portfolio as a whole, but considering the cut dividend and accompanying price fall, barely a year after purchase, not bad at all. This is my third top-up since October 2019 and probably will not be my last.


Ian


Oh please, do your own research as they say :shock:

I do, such as I'm able. But I have always noted your opinion since your HYP is progressing well, and I know you will always come to a sober conclusion about the sustainability of the dividend. I notice you have a positive opinion about holding AV, whereas Dod hs the opposite opinion. I read, observe all and make up my own mind, thank you.

Arb.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#276975

Postby kempiejon » January 13th, 2020, 9:31 am

Over the past 5 or 6 years AV. has been the better performer, higher yield and better rate of above inflation increases. I bought AV sometime before 2014, I'm not sure when as I swapped brokers and lost the itemised records. Since 2016 I've been buying Legal and Gen; AV. cut in 2009, 2011 and 2012, over the past 5 years the dividend has picked up with 14% annualised increases compared to LGENs 11%. I prefer LGEN's 10 years of unbroken increases compared to only 5 at its competitor. Over 10 years LGEN have increased income by 18% annualised, less than 1% at Aviva.
I'm not buying any more insurance at the moment though so I don't need to decide if the longer record would trump the higher yield and better increase rate.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#277027

Postby IanTHughes » January 13th, 2020, 11:54 am

Arborbridge wrote:I notice you have a positive opinion about holding AV, whereas Dod hs the opposite opinion. I read, observe all and make up my own mind, thank you.

Well yes, at the moment I am positive. Mind you, after the fall of dividend in 2013, Aviva Plc (AV) was not suitable for top up in my view. Of course, the yield was too low in any case, as can be seen here:

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=av.


Irrespective of the yield, it remained unsuitable for further funds in my portfolio until last year.

I am also not blind to the chequered dividend history:

Image

Still, for now it does the business, a sustainable dividend - in my opinion - rising year-on-year


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#277029

Postby tjh290633 » January 13th, 2020, 12:18 pm

IanTHughes wrote:Well yes, at the moment I am positive. Mind you, after the fall of dividend in 2013, Aviva Plc (AV) was not suitable for top up in my view. Of course, the yield was too low in any case, as can be seen here:

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=av.

It's odd that you should say that. Looking at my records, I bought in 2010 at 398p, when the dividend was 10p interim, 16p final giving a start yield of 6.5%.

In 2013 the final was reduced to 9p, and the price fell to about 300p, but then in 2014 the price rose above 500p, causing the yield to drop to about 3% with dividends of 5.4p interim and 9.6p final, 15p total. Then the dividend started to increase and the share price started to fall, so now we are at 9.25 interim and 20.75p final, 30p total, and the share price is about 400p, giving that yield of 7.3%.

As you rightly say, with a yield of 3%, topping up would be off the menu. I have topped up 4 times since then, and the market reaction seems perverse to me. I'm happy to take the rising dividends.

TJH

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#277266

Postby 88V8 » January 14th, 2020, 9:33 am

There can be a mental conflict between 'five years of rising dividends' and the folk memory of 'a serial cutter'.
For me, the latter prevails, although I do hold some of their Prefs.

V8

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Re: IanTHughes HYP - 2020 Top-ups

#277294

Postby Arborbridge » January 14th, 2020, 10:51 am

88V8 wrote:There can be a mental conflict between 'five years of rising dividends' and the folk memory of 'a serial cutter'.
For me, the latter prevails, although I do hold some of their Prefs.

V8


Those who bought within the past five years or so cannot see what all the adverse-ness is about. But look at the longer picture, and there's no doubt there is a risk or long term failure - and it is the long term HYPers prefer, rather than trading in and out.

Naively counting the rises on the chart which Ian published, it looks like we could be due for another cut in the next year or two. Fasten your seat belts and hope that this time it will be different! :lol:

I guess there are two options for those already "in": 1) sell up now while the going is good 2) sit tight and pass beyond the next cut, buying some more if the price/yield is right.

Certainly my overall experience with AV is not grand, but not a disaster either. One I would have been slightly better off without, on balance.

Arb.


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