fighting the urge

[Arborbridge]

I'm giving up fighting the urge. That is to give a running commentary, so here's my latest damage report:


assuming HSBC cancel and assuming all companies which have so far cancelled or postponed do not pay my expected dividends this year, the damage so far is a 13.5% decrease in income.
So far, manageable without too much disruption. But this is only the beginning, I remind myself.

There, I've given in to the urge.

By all means, if you have given up fighting the urge, add to this thread.

Arb.

[jackdaww]

I'm giving up fighting the urge. That is to give a running commentary, so here's my latest damage report:


assuming HSBC cancel and assuming all companies which have so far cancelled or postponed do not pay my expected dividends this year, the damage so far is a 13.5% decrease in income.
So far, manageable without too much disruption. But this is only the beginning, I remind myself.

There, I've given in to the urge.

By all means, if you have given up fighting the urge, add to this thread.

Arb.

=================================

sadly i have no urge to post on this board at all.

[monabri]

sadly i have no urge to post on this board at all.

But you just have!


Arb,
It will be interesting to see the eventual outcome for ARBIT.

[monabri]

https://youtu.be/BaIAVEmg2O4

But this is Blighty!

[Dod101]

Well on the positive side, in the last few days, including today I have received about 10% of my usual annual dividend total. Nothing like seeing the dividends actually appearing in figures in my ISA, SIPP and bank account. If HSBC is lost for the entire year that is about 7.5% of my expected total. As I write, I have lost only the interim for M J Gleeson and that is almost insignificant. Even if HSBC announce cancellation of the dividend due on 14 April, they may well resume towards the end of the year. This is only the end of March.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

But this is only the beginning.

...Nor is it the end.It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Useful quote from Boris. Oh. I meant Churchill.

[Arborbridge]

Well on the positive side, in the last few days, including today I have received about 10% of my usual annual dividend total. Nothing like seeing the dividends actually appearing in figures in my ISA, SIPP and bank account. If HSBC is lost for the entire year that is about 7.5% of my expected total. As I write, I have lost only the interim for M J Gleeson and that is almost insignificant. Even if HSBC announce cancellation of the dividend due on 14 April, they may well resume towards the end of the year. This is only the end of March.

Dod

That's pretty upbeat, but what I feel is that this time of year is generally poor for dividends, and the ones which are being cancelled - or will be cancelled - are the dividends for my normally fatter months.

10% of annual in that last few days? I haven't checked today, but as of Saturday, my receipts are of the order of 3% of my HYP annual total. Just three: RDSB.BP, BHP.

Arb.

[Wizard]

Well on the positive side, in the last few days, including today I have received about 10% of my usual annual dividend total. Nothing like seeing the dividends actually appearing in figures in my ISA, SIPP and bank account. If HSBC is lost for the entire year that is about 7.5% of my expected total. As I write, I have lost only the interim for M J Gleeson and that is almost insignificant. Even if HSBC announce cancellation of the dividend due on 14 April, they may well resume towards the end of the year. This is only the end of March.

Dod

I think this is one of the key questions Dod, when will a cut dividend resume and at what level. We can reasonably group HYP shares in to a few categories:
i) those that maintain or increase their dividend
ii) those that cut or suspend but return to the prior payment or more within 12 months
iii) those that cut or suspend but return to a lower payment and / or stop paying for more than 12 months

I included cut, but I think there have been and will be few cuts, I think in most cases it will be all or nothing.

[Dod101]

Well on the positive side, in the last few days, including today I have received about 10% of my usual annual dividend total. Nothing like seeing the dividends actually appearing in figures in my ISA, SIPP and bank account. If HSBC is lost for the entire year that is about 7.5% of my expected total. As I write, I have lost only the interim for M J Gleeson and that is almost insignificant. Even if HSBC announce cancellation of the dividend due on 14 April, they may well resume towards the end of the year. This is only the end of March.

Dod

That's pretty upbeat, but what I feel is that this time of year is generally poor for dividends, and the ones which are being cancelled - or will be cancelled - are the dividends for my normally fatter months.

10% of annual in that last few days? I haven't checked today, but as of Saturday, my receipts are of the order of 3% of my HYP annual total. Just three: RDSB.BP, BHP.

Well' the last few days' goes back to Unilever on the 18 March I think it was. Since then I have received dividends from Murray Income, Shell, AstraZeneca yesterday and today, Temple Bar, Imperial Brands and Alliance Trust. April will be thin without HSBC with only Primary Health Properties of any significance and I think they should pay out. Many HYPers will hold those that I have cited as paying in March so I do not think that my story will be unusual. In fact I am a little more upbeat than I was because I think I will save quite a bit of spending with the enforced confinement to barracks. It is amazing what we do not need. For instance I usually fill the tank of my car twice a month at about £60 a fill. Last week I drove all of three miles to my Co op. Not going into the nearest town means that I am not popping in to Waterstones or Boots and thus saving there as well.

Early days and we'll see but the dividend front may not be as bad as it currently looks. I expect Imperial to cut its dividend but that has not got much to do with Coronavirus, that is a company specific problem.

Dod

[tjh290633]

April will be thin without HSBC with only Primary Health Properties of any significance and I think they should pay out

PHP pay on 22nd May, they go XD on 2nd April.

TJH

[kempiejon]

If the banks cancel April brings Pennon, Rio, Diageo and Jupiter Fund Management dividends to my cash balance.

[monabri]

I'm trying to build an income stream by reinvesting dividends so all these cuts are not pleasant.

[Dod101]

April will be thin without HSBC with only Primary Health Properties of any significance and I think they should pay out

PHP pay on 22nd May, they go XD on 2nd April.

TJH

MIsread my records. It was the tax on the PId dividends that I receive in April, Not very much so April will be a very thin month. Thanks

Dod

[daveh]

I've just done my end of March update to the value of my HYPish portfolio.


Income wise:

~10% of last years total dividend income has so far been cancelled or postponed.
My announced income to date is only 76% of what it was this time last year partly down to the above cancelled dividends partly down to a couple of big specials last year that weren't repeated this year (BHP and S32) and partly down to a couple of non covid cuts (eg S32).


The capital is well down:

23% year to date, 25% on the portfolios peak value from earlier this year.
The income unit value is back to the value it was at the end of 2012 and the accumulation unit value to what it was in July 2016.

[moorfield]

Two dividend cuts down so far - IMI and WPP, and one certainly coming next year - TUI. I am fully expecting my dividend cashflow will miss its forecast this year, by the proverbial mile. While the dividend and yield dials are spinning out of control I will be reinvesting whatever cash arrives to keep portfolio sector weights balanced, which may also include topping up some of the (former perhaps) lower yielders ULVR etc. I expect now I may be working like this until all holdings have resumed one initial+final dividend cycle, another 3 years 2020-22 perhaps, at which point I should be able to consider the "dust settled" and re-evaluate my portfolio state and long term retirement target. Another 11 years to go, but fortunately that is an early retirement target.

[Arborbridge]

Another 11 years to go, but fortunately that is an early retirement target.

Just in time for the next crash.

Arb,

[monabri]

And to think that one upon a time all that mattered was Brexit! Oh, those halcyon days.

[Arborbridge]

And to think that one upon a time all that mattered was Brexit! Oh, those halcyon days.

Ah! Yes, those days of endless discussion, round and round. Unfortunately, it's still there lurking like a lurgy, overshadowed for a while by real life and death.

[moorfield]

Another 11 years to go, but fortunately that is an early retirement target.

Just in time for the next crash.

Arb,

Well hopefully I'll be better prepared for that one ... Further to what I wrote above I may just sit it out for the next 2 years and let whatever cash comes accumulate as a reserve.

In other words, do nothing. How very unHYPish.

[Arborbridge]

I've just done my end of March update to the value of my HYPish portfolio.

I'm fighting the urge not to look until tomorrow March is not over yet.