The Lemon Fool

The latest update for this HYP constructed by pyad, as recorded on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=16868&start=140

Has been posted here: viewtopic.php?p=323789#p323789

Further details of how updates are to be made to this portfolio can be found on this thread: viewtopic.php?p=218513#p218513

Comments are of course welcome although it would be appreciated if they were confined to this thread, leaving the main thread to simply record all actions taken and the progress of the portfolio.


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:The latest update for this HYP constructed by pyad, as recorded on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=16868&start=140

Has been posted here: viewtopic.php?p=323789#p323789 ]

Now here viewtopic.php?f=15&t=22901&p=323792#p323792 ?

All these links to where you are supposed to post... it's like trying to follow spaghetti code full of GOTOs.

MrFoolish wrote:All these links to where you are supposed to post... it's like trying to follow spaghetti code full of GOTOs.

Swings and roundabouts, I'm afraid: Ian's two-thread structure is good for someone who later wants to look at what's happened to this HYP, without having to wade through the sometimes-voluminous past discussions triggered by it. The one-thread structure is good for those who just want to follow those discussions wherever they go. Both structures aren't as good for the other group, and there's a third group, namely those who want to discuss this HYP while staying focused on it and exactly what it contains: with the two-thread stucture, they'll need a tab or window open on each thread, while with the one-thread structure, they'll need to either have two tabs or windows open on that thread or (as soon as the discussion gets at all complicated) keep scrolling up and down between the latest update and the active discussion...

Basically, I'm afraid it's a case of not being able to please all the people all the time! At least with the current board software and setup: something might be done with 'tags' that came closer to pleasing all the people all the time, but guess what - if you want to raise that subject, it's one for the Biscuit Bar, not this board! :-}

Gengulphus

It's a shame that so much work has gone into maintaining this portfolio, yet it is giving rise to none of the commentary this thread was set up for.

I feel it really needs to compared to some sort of benchmark, otherwise it's just a lot of numbers.

I seem to be in some kind of twilight zone where I'm in a perpetual loop I guess not dissimilar to running a HYP but not sure this was the intention here.

Interesting quote from IMB on future dividends.

I think I agree the dividends look sustainable at the rebased level, so worth considering as a top up or new buy.

I had written them off for a top up, but I may need to think again.

FD

year 2

" PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST – Year Two - Commentary"

MrFoolish wrote:All these links to where you are supposed to post... it's like trying to follow spaghetti code full of GOTOs.

I have to agree its a ludicrous state of affairs.

Well, I for one am grateful to IanTH for the time and effort put in to the exercise, which I am finding most useful in the development of my own portfolio.

As Gengulphus says (above): “Basically, I'm afraid it's a case of not being able to please all the people all the time!”. There will always be those who prefer a snipe and a whinge, rather than adding any useful commentary of their own

The latest update for this HYP constructed by pyad, as recorded on this thread: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=16868&start=140

Has been posted here: viewtopic.php?p=355365#p355365

Further details of how updates are to be made to this portfolio can be found on this thread: viewtopic.php?p=218513#p218513

The Top-Up indicated in the previous post viewtopic.php?p=355048#p355048 has now been made as follows:

Date      | Business | EPIC | Shares | Price (p)   | Total (£)  | Yield (%) | Comment                       
10-Nov-20 | Tobacco  | IMB  |   226  | 1,309.5245  | -2,975.83  |    14.18% | Routine Dividend Re-Investment

Comments are of course welcome although it would be appreciated if they were confined to this thread, leaving the main thread to simply record all actions taken and the progress of the portfolio.


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:The latest update for this HYP constructed by pyad ... Comments are of course welcome although it would be appreciated if they were confined to this thread

A minor point only but, here and there, you say as 'constructed by pyad'. I'd amend that slightly to as originally constructed by pyad or something along those lines to make it slightly more obvious you've taken it forward.

I'd also suggest your subject headers, such as PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST – Year 2 – November Top-Up, also include No comments please in the header***, to avoid the issues you had on your recent update (despite the footnote you often include). A helpful Mod can do that for you, should you wish to report your OP.

Come what may, I enjoy the regular updates.


*** I've tested at Testing 123 and there is enough room, though not necessarily readily visible to all.

SuperCally wrote:Well, I for one am grateful to IanTH for the time and effort put in to the exercise, which I am finding most useful in the development of my own portfolio.

As Gengulphus says (above): “Basically, I'm afraid it's a case of not being able to please all the people all the time!”. There will always be those who prefer a snipe and a whinge, rather than adding any useful commentary of their own

I'm sure everyone is grateful for the work put in, despite the convoluted thread structures.

Not sure about the request for "useful commentary" though. Anything that smacks of criticism of the performance of HYPs tends to disappear rather quickly. Who is going to risk putting the time in to comment? Few if any, it would seem.

Without the ability to compare this to any alternative it is no surprise there is little discussion. While I respect the time and effort being put in, I am not sure to what end it is being done. Viewed in glorious isolation the latest update shows the portfolio has lost the investor nearly 10% of their money, so surely the only conclusion one can reach is that it has so far been a poor decision to make the investment as originally suggested by PYAD and subsequently managed by IanTHughes?

Wizard wrote:Without the ability to compare this to any alternative it is no surprise there is little discussion.

Well, all you need to do is provide whatever benchmark you believe should be used and make the comparison.

Personally I compare it with various Investment Trusts as well as a portfolio of Investment Trusts. So far the HYP is doing rather better - well ahead in income terms and about level on capital terms


Ian

Wizard wrote:Viewed in glorious isolation the latest update shows the portfolio has lost the investor nearly 10% of their money, so surely the only conclusion one can reach is that it has so far been a poor decision to make the investment as originally suggested by PYAD and subsequently managed by IanTHughes?

What a [deleted] statement! If any "virtual investor" was concerned about the capital value that might be available in under two years, then of course the correct decision would have been to leave the whole amount in the bank. Obviously - well obvious to anyone with a modicum of investment experience - that was not the original assumption and therefore the capital was put at risk.

You appear rather new to equity investment and the first thing that you should understand is that the time period one should mark this investment, whether as a success or otherwise, is much longer than the current very short timeline.


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:

Wizard wrote:Without the ability to compare this to any alternative it is no surprise there is little discussion.

Well, all you need to do is provide whatever benchmark you believe should be used and make the comparison.

Personally I compare it with various Investment Trusts as well as a portfolio of Investment Trusts. So far the HYP is doing rather better - well ahead in income terms and about level on capital terms


Ian

Can you explain how to do that? I've been through the update thread, but I can't find any mention of unit prices or income per unit, XIRR, or any clear way in which I could lift something from your reports and chart them against any other instrument.

I expect I'm just looking in the wrong place as no doubt you have done comparisons yourself. Did I see some graphs somewhere?


Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:

Wizard wrote:Without the ability to compare this to any alternative it is no surprise there is little discussion.

Well, all you need to do is provide whatever benchmark you believe should be used and make the comparison.

Personally I compare it with various Investment Trusts as well as a portfolio of Investment Trusts. So far the HYP is doing rather better - well ahead in income terms and about level on capital terms

Can you explain how to do that? I've been through the update thread, but I can't find any mention of unit prices or income per unit, XIRR, or any clear way in which I could lift something from your reports and chart them against any other instrument.

I expect I'm just looking in the wrong place as no doubt you have done comparisons yourself. Did I see some graphs somewhere?

This is the HYP Practical board so of course there is no mention of Investment Trusts, or anything else rather than HYP for that matter. No, I keep my own records, which are not broadcast.

To be honest, the portfolio of ITs is only measured against the "Drawdown" version of this virtual portfolio, measuring against this "ReInvest" version would be too much work, which is therefore simply compared with The City of London Investment Trust plc (CTY). It is very easy, simply create a spreadsheet that contains CTY purchases with the same dates and amounts that were used to set up this HYP and, every time a CTY dividend is gathered, make an appropriate purchase. That is what I do anyway.

As I said, in comparison to CTY, the HYP is more than holding its own!

With regard to other "benchmark"s to compare this portfolio to, I would suggest that for every 10 interested posters on here, we might end up with 15 different benchmarks, which is far too much for one person to keep records for! if anyone wants a benchmark they can easily do it themselves, and of course report it on these boards if they see fit

However, if you want me to produce details of "Accumulation" or "Dividend" units just ask. I of course have the data required, although cash amounts will do just as well.


Ian

IanTHughes wrote:

Wizard wrote:Without the ability to compare this to any alternative it is no surprise there is little discussion.

Well, all you need to do is provide whatever benchmark you believe should be used and make the comparison.

Forget XIRR, Income or Acc Units, or what other ITs are doing - that is all rear view mirror stuff.

The simplest and most obvious measurement of any income portfolio's success is the overall income it produces year on year, as pyad regularly reports (and soon will again I hope). At the inception of any portfolio one can make a reasonable forecast of the income it will produce in the first twelve months, using known dividends and company announcements. At the start of the second year, one can recompute that forecast taking any dividend increases or cuts plus cum- or ex-dividend purchases or sales that have occurred since. And so on.

Now overlay and compare that against cash received and income extrapolated further into the future and you have a rough plan for that future, against which you can measure and act appropriately ie. tinker if needed (I will need to next year), not a view in your rear view mirror.

moorfield wrote:The simplest and most obvious measurement of any income portfolio's success is the overall income it produces year on year, as pyad regularly reports (and soon will again I hope). At the inception of any portfolio one can make a reasonable forecast of the income it will produce in the first twelve months, using known dividends and company announcements. At the start of the second year, one can recompute that forecast taking any dividend increases or cuts plus cum- or ex-dividend purchases or sales that have occurred since. And so on.

I think this is an insufficient way of looking at it. There's little point in generating a good income if your capital value is tending towards zero*. A long-term falling capital value is indicative of a declining business going forward, and this will ultimately give a declining income. How much you care about this depends on your life expectancy and your intended legacy, of course.

*I'm not necessarily saying the HYP capital will decline - just that you can't automatically ignore it.

(Hopefully I'm allowed to mentioned capital values. PYAD said it's a secondary consideration, not a taboo subject.)