Where are the Ideas?

[miner1000]

This board seems to be getting a bit bogged down. There has not really been any stimulating discussions for a while.

Ian has posted twice in 10 days about his HYP, which would appear to show that his HYP has seen more trading over the past couple of years than some trading accounts (each to his own of course) and a few discussions about tangential subjects like whether UK equities are the raison d'etre for Hypers.

But the Coronavirus seems to have blunted innovation. We are all nursing dividend cuts. We are all suffering less income this year than last. But hyping is surely not dead.

A few rushed in (myself included) in March when everyone though it was a buying opportunity. Some probably got burned, but many think although they were early, their purchases can still come right.

But we need to stay focused. I dont sell shares. I only buy infrequently if and when I have some surplus cash, but my HYP is essentially mature and has not seen a sale for more than 5 years. Nor will it, unless I pass on and my kids get hold of it, in which case it will see a fire sale followed by some luxury car purchases and a lot of drinking.

But we really should be positioning ourselves (even me) for what the investment universe is going to look like once the Covid thing and Brexit are over. That would be early next year for Brexit and mid next year (hopefully) for a vaccine.

Should we be buying US tech stocks? Should we be investing in emerging markets? Should we be converting to sectors likely to be the winners once Brexit and Covid are over? Hpw can we make the most of our capital gains to date and our investments going forward. Surely Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

The IC this week certainly seems to see a case for buying BT. But I cannot yet see the case myself.

Anyone out there got any gems of wisdom? The other stuff going on at the moment is just not grabbing me.

Miner

[SalvorHardin]

Should we be buying US tech stocks? Should we be investing in emerging markets? Should we be converting to sectors likely to be the winners once Brexit and Covid are over? Hpw can we make the most of our capital gains to date and our investments going forward. Surely Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

If anyone posted on these topics their post would quickly be deleted because of the very strict posting criteria which apply to this board

[Itsallaguess]

FTSE 100 and 250 listed by sector and descending yields, and only listing yields marked as 3% or over -



No claims made as to the accuracy of the above data, so please, investigate personally as to the validity of it before making any investment decisions..

Data sources -

FTSE 100 - https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividendyield.py?market=ftse100&sort=yield&order=1

FTSE 250 - https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividendyield.py?market=ftse250&sort=yield&order=1

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[idpickering]

This board seems to be getting a bit bogged down. There has not really been any stimulating discussions for a while.

Ian has posted twice in 10 days about his HYP, which would appear to show that his HYP has seen more trading over the past couple of years than some trading accounts (each to his own of course) and a few discussions about tangential subjects like whether UK equities are the raison d'etre for Hypers.

But the Coronavirus seems to have blunted innovation. We are all nursing dividend cuts. We are all suffering less income this year than last. But hyping is surely not dead.

A few rushed in (myself included) in March when everyone though it was a buying opportunity. Some probably got burned, but many think although they were early, their purchases can still come right.

But we need to stay focused. I dont sell shares. I only buy infrequently if and when I have some surplus cash, but my HYP is essentially mature and has not seen a sale for more than 5 years. Nor will it, unless I pass on and my kids get hold of it, in which case it will see a fire sale followed by some luxury car purchases and a lot of drinking.

But we really should be positioning ourselves (even me) for what the investment universe is going to look like once the Covid thing and Brexit are over. That would be early next year for Brexit and mid next year (hopefully) for a vaccine.

Should we be buying US tech stocks? Should we be investing in emerging markets? Should we be converting to sectors likely to be the winners once Brexit and Covid are over? Hpw can we make the most of our capital gains to date and our investments going forward. Surely Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

The IC this week certainly seems to see a case for buying BT. But I cannot yet see the case myself.

Anyone out there got any gems of wisdom? The other stuff going on at the moment is just not grabbing me.

Miner

Good post miner. I’m the first to admit, and put my hands up, that I’ve traded far to much recently. I’m only human, and shall strive to rectify that in the future. As I said just now in my IDP HYP thread just now, ‘less is more. With that in mind, that is exactly what I intend to do. No selling, and stick to my monthly top ups.

Ian.

[IanTHughes]

I’m only human, and shall strive to rectify that in the future.

Now that I would like to see a post about


Ian

[dealtn]

Anyone out there got any gems of wisdom?

Apologies in advance as I think all of your questions are not at all HYP-P so reported the post.

They are all interesting questions that deserve responses. I'm unable to answer them here though.

[idpickering]

I’m only human, and shall strive to rectify that in the future.

Now that I would like to see a post about


Ian

It’s something I intend to do. Ie nothing.

Ian.

[funduffer]

My HYP has seen zero activity since February. I have bought nothing and sold nothing.

I would normally do a few top-ups or new buys a year with accumulated dividends, but I have redirected dividends to IT’s and Premium Bonds in the last 6 months. The reason for this is I have no faith in yield forecasts at the moment, and I have no idea about dividend sustainability with so many cuts. I am sure there are some bargains out there, but how do you spot them?

Only HYP share I am mulling at the moment is National Grid. We still need electricity, right?

FD

[monabri]

I’m only human, and shall strive to rectify that in the future.

Now that I would like to see a post about

Ian

Brilliant!

[idpickering]

I’m only human, and shall strive to rectify that in the future.

Now that I would like to see a post about

Ian

Brilliant!

I thought it was funny too. Just remember though, none of us are perfect.

Ian.

[MDW1954]

Now that I would like to see a post about

Ian

Brilliant!

I thought it was funny too. Just remember though, none of us are perfect.

Ian.

Yes, but you're the only one declaring an intention of becoming non-human!

MDW1954

[Itsallaguess]

Brilliant!

I thought it was funny too. Just remember though, none of us are perfect.

Yes, but you're the only one declaring an intention of becoming non-human!

The full transition to trade-bot is surely almost complete....

(A leg pull - no offence meant, of course..)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[monabri]

I think we all ought to be very careful....I looked up possible transmutations and I came across the "OrkBot"!....maybe IDP will become The OrkneyBot?

Be afraid, be very afraid!

https://www.deviantart.com/drawbba-the- ... -542065362



One leg would be longer than t'other from all the pulling!

[idpickering]

That was funny, recs all round gang! Lol

Iam

[Wizard]

This board seems to be getting a bit bogged down. There has not really been any stimulating discussions for a while.

Ian has posted twice in 10 days about his HYP, which would appear to show that his HYP has seen more trading over the past couple of years than some trading accounts (each to his own of course) and a few discussions about tangential subjects like whether UK equities are the raison d'etre for Hypers.

But the Coronavirus seems to have blunted innovation. We are all nursing dividend cuts. We are all suffering less income this year than last. But hyping is surely not dead.

A few rushed in (myself included) in March when everyone though it was a buying opportunity. Some probably got burned, but many think although they were early, their purchases can still come right.

But we need to stay focused. I dont sell shares. I only buy infrequently if and when I have some surplus cash, but my HYP is essentially mature and has not seen a sale for more than 5 years. Nor will it, unless I pass on and my kids get hold of it, in which case it will see a fire sale followed by some luxury car purchases and a lot of drinking.

But we really should be positioning ourselves (even me) for what the investment universe is going to look like once the Covid thing and Brexit are over. That would be early next year for Brexit and mid next year (hopefully) for a vaccine.

Should we be buying US tech stocks? Should we be investing in emerging markets? Should we be converting to sectors likely to be the winners once Brexit and Covid are over? Hpw can we make the most of our capital gains to date and our investments going forward. Surely Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

The IC this week certainly seems to see a case for buying BT. But I cannot yet see the case myself.

Anyone out there got any gems of wisdom? The other stuff going on at the moment is just not grabbing me.

Miner

My bold.

Not a big surprise, around half the investable universe for HYP discussion has cut or suspend the dividend. Some of the others did not meet the qualifying level of yield anyway. With such a restricted pool to fish in is it surprising that new ideas are few and far between?

[csearle]

Should we be buying US tech stocks? Should we be investing in emerging markets? Should we be converting to sectors likely to be the winners once Brexit and Covid are over? Hpw can we make the most of our capital gains to date and our investments going forward. Surely Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

Moderator Message:
All interesting stuff, but unfortunately on the wrong board. So if you are interesyed in a discussion of these things then please choose another board like for example Investment Strategies. Thanks - Chris

[Arborbridge]

Well, it seems we truly are out of ideas - about shares that is. I'm slightly surprised that the question was posed by Miner1000, who is perhaps the most hyp of hypers, rarely buying or selling. But maybe that shows he's a more strategic thinker than some of us.

My HYP, for example, isn't particularly "looking" for shares, or to "rotate" shares. At 36 companies it largely just "exists" though I do tinker occasionally and the accumulated capital was recently invested in a new holding. I'm not knowledgeabl enough to think strategically in the way Miner suggests which is one reason HYP suits me perhaps? - I am just Strategically Ignorant.

When in my slow tinkering I do dispose of a share, I would either run Step One or pick up an idea for a share idea by looking at other known HYP possibilities, but I wouldn't think in broad brush terms apart for a simple look at sector balance.
As for the current situation which has thrown 8 of my 36 into cancellation, we can only wait. The most one could do is just invest in what is still paying, or stockpile cash for six months or a year, or buy an IT and hope its reserves don't run out before dividends resume.

Arb.

[Wasron]

This board seems to be getting a bit bogged down. There has not really been any stimulating discussions for a while...

...But the Coronavirus seems to have blunted innovation. We are all nursing dividend cuts. We are all suffering less income this year than last. But hyping is surely not dead...

...Covid has changed things. Maybe the UK market is undervalued?

The IC this week certainly seems to see a case for buying BT. But I cannot yet see the case myself.

Anyone out there got any gems of wisdom? The other stuff going on at the moment is just not grabbing me.

Miner

Since March I’ve had 13 companies suspend their dividends, out of 28 holdings. I found myself in a position where there was nothing to top up without breaching my own top-up rules (which are much like many discussed here).

New holdings was the route I took, initially adding Johnson Matthey (JMAT) when it briefly yielded 5%, as well as Diageo (DGE) and Coca-Cola Hellenic (CCH).

Diageo and CCH were yielding sub-3% dividend-wise, but they were cheaper than they had recently been. Neither are high yield, but they’re both a bit of ballast, keeping the income flowing.

Johnson Matthey has reduced the dividend by half, but commented that this could be paid out before the year end, to maintain their dividend hero status (20+ years of growth). Since purchase they’re up over 20% so fingers are crossed for a full resumption.

One other that I suggested earlier this year was Hipgnosis Songs (SONG). An IT that generates income from the song back catalogue they own. Yielding just over 4%. They’re up over 10% since then, but I didn’t buy in, put off by their ongoing charge. There were some on this board that didn’t consider them HYPable, but as there’s no other way of investing in their assets I would compare them with HICL.

Wasron

[Steveam]

I run a HYP-ish portfolio and make very few changes. My only sales this year are some AZN for CGT harvesting and sale of some BHP for repurchase in my ISA (using the allowance). I haven’t yet re-invested the proceeds from the AZN sale.

Times are uncertain so I’m accumulating “cash” in case of a long term slump or other nasty scenario (my “cash” buffer is now at about 4x annual expenditure which is up from 3.5x pre-Covid). I’ve bought a small amount of SMDS and plan to bring this up to a full holding over the next 6 months. I really want to see how and to what extent dividends recover.

So, in summary, no change but caution and trepidation.

Best wishes,

Steve

[tjh290633]

Since March I have had 10 out of my 36 shares suspend their dividend, plus a couple that have reinstated them.

I normally have a rule that I will not top up a share which contributes, or which will contribute if topped up by 20%, more than 5% of portfolio income. Others, BHP, BP., IMB, RDSB and S32, have reduced their dividends. Normally that is not a problem but, were the number of dividend payers to fall to 20 or below, that 5% becomes an unrealistic limit, because 5% would be the average level of the income from the 20 shares. As it stands, 9 of my shares, ranked by share of income, are disqualified by my rule.

The average from my 36 shares is about 2.8% share of income, so my 5% is almost double that level. Looking back to more normal times, the average is similar. Now I have 26 shares contributing to income, so I would expect the average to be nearer 4%, which suggests that perhaps I should relax my limit to 7%-ish. Bearing in mind my 20% top-up condition, then I would raise my disqualification to about 5.75%, which then releases all my shares except two (LGEN and BATS) from that prohibition.

For clarification, here are my shares ranked by share of income:

Rank   EPIC   % Income
   1   LGEN      6.61%
   2   BATS      6.07%
   3   IMB       5.37%
   4   RIO       5.16%
   5   SSE       5.07%
   6   ADM       4.84%
   7   VOD       4.78%
   8   NG.       4.65%
   9   BP.       4.63%
  10   GSK       4.02%
  11   BHP       3.92%
  12   AV.       3.80%
  13   UU.       3.69%
  14   BA.       3.68%
  15   TATE      3.19%
  16   PHP       3.14%
  17   RDSB      2.97%
  18   TSCO      2.92%
  19   BLND      2.83%
  20   PSON      2.77%
  21   ULVR      2.76%
  22   DGE       2.30%
  23   AZN       2.30%
  24   IMI       2.18%
  25   RB.       1.87%
  26   SGRO      1.78%
  27   S32       1.48%
  28   KGF       1.25%
  29   WMH       0.00%
  30   MKS       0.00%
  31   TW.       0.00%
  32   MARS      0.00%
  33   BT.A      0.00%
  34   SMDS      0.00%
  35   CPG       0.00%
  36   LLOY      0.00%

I should point out that some of the shares have only cancelled a single dividend so far, or 2 in the case of quarterly payers, so I have assumed that they may resume paying with just the single cancellation. The figures represent the last 12 months with announced cancellations incorporated. That brings me back to my top-up table:

Top-up          Income                     Cost                
Rank     EPIC   Rank     EPIC   % Income   Rank   Epic   % Cost
     1   IMB         1   LGEN      6.61%      1   PSON    4.43%
     2   VOD         2   BATS      6.07%      2   BP.     4.42%
     3   BATS*       3   IMB       5.37%      3   RDSB    4.42%
     4   RDSB*       4   RIO       5.16%      4   LLOY    4.37%
     5   AV.*        5   SSE       5.07%      5   MARS    4.33%
     6   BLND        6   ADM       4.84%      6   WMH     4.27%
     7   BP.*        7   VOD       4.78%      7   AV.     4.22%
     8   PHP         8   NG.       4.65%      8   BT.A    4.17%
     9   SSE         9   BP.       4.63%      9   MKS     3.99%
    10   UU.        10   GSK       4.02%     10   GSK     3.70%
    11   GSK        11   BHP       3.92%     11   S32     3.69%
    12   LGEN*      12   AV.       3.80%     12   BLND    3.61%

As noted previously the top 9 are currently disqualified, as are the top 6 of the portfolio cost rankings. Three of the top-up candidates* remain disqualified, for portfolio cost reasons, and BLND are on the naughty step unless they restore their dividends in their next results. LGEN and BATS also remain disqualified*. Currently PHP, UU. and GSK are the only eligible candidates, so the change would be dramatic.

TJH