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TJH Portfolio adjustment

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tjh290633
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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#348025

Postby tjh290633 » October 15th, 2020, 3:34 pm

Yet again my rules have led me to trim back one of my holdings. This time it was Kingfisher (KGF) which went past 1.5 times my median holding value last night, and stayed there this morning, and so I sold 25% of my holding at 304.4p this morning. The proceeds went in to BAE Systems (BA.) at 470p, PHP at 143p and TATE at 635p. All are paying dividends while KGF currently is not. As a result my top-up table now looks like this:

Top-up          Income                     Cost                
Rank EPIC Rank EPIC % Income Rank Epic % Cost
1 IMB* 1 LGEN 6.38% 1 AV. 4.65%
2 BP.*+ 2 BATS 5.86% 2 PSON 4.34%
3 VOD* 3 BP. 5.66% 3 BP. 4.33%
4 LGEN* 4 IMB 5.19% 4 RDSB 4.32%
5 BATS* 5 RIO 4.98% 5 LLOY 4.28%
6 RDSB+ 6 SSE 4.89% 6 MARS 4.23%
7 RIO* 7 ADM 4.67% 7 GSK 4.12%
8 GSK* 8 VOD 4.62% 8 BT.A 4.07%
9 MKS° 9 GSK 4.52% 9 MKS 3.91%
10 AV.*+ 10 NG. 4.50% 10 PHP 3.70%
11 BHP 11 AV. 4.33% 11 S32 3.61%
12 MARS+° 12 BA. 4.10% 12 TSCO 3.56%

I am still abiding by my rule not to top up any share if, by doing so, its share of dividend income or portfolio cost exceeds 5%. That means that about 4.2% is the cut off point for disqualification. The first 11(*) of income contributors are therefore disqualified as are the first 6, ranked by share of cost (+). I am also not topping up shares which do not pay a dividend at the moment (°). The list is marked accordingly. BHP and TATE (in 14th position) therefore are the current eligible holdings for topping up.

My portfolio now looks like this:

Value                           
Rank EPIC Weight % Median
1 ULVR 3.55% 116.9%
2 NG. 3.40% 112.1%
3 ADM 3.37% 111.0%
4 DGE 3.34% 109.9%
5 UU. 3.32% 109.4%
6 AZN 3.29% 108.5%
7 PHP 3.27% 107.5%
8 BA. 3.25% 107.0%
9 SSE 3.25% 107.0%
10 WMH 3.23% 106.3%
11 KGF 3.22% 106.2%
12 IMI 3.19% 105.2%
13 TSCO 3.18% 104.6%
14 BHP 3.16% 104.2%
15 GSK 3.15% 103.7%
16 AV. 3.13% 103.1%
17 RIO 3.08% 101.6%
18 TATE 3.04% 100.2%
19 PSON 3.03% 99.8%
20 RB. 2.98% 98.0%
21 SGRO 2.92% 96.0%
22 BATS 2.81% 92.5%
23 LGEN 2.74% 90.4%
24 SMDS 2.67% 87.9%
25 S32 2.63% 86.5%
26 VOD 2.51% 82.8%
27 BLND 2.41% 79.5%
28 BP. 2.30% 75.7%
29 TW. 2.30% 75.7%
30 RDSB 2.14% 70.5%
31 BT.A 1.96% 64.6%
32 IMB 1.96% 64.5%
33 CPG 1.95% 64.4%
34 MARS 1.54% 50.7%
35 LLOY 1.52% 50.1%
36 MKS 1.20% 39.4%

Kingfisher has dropped to 11th position, BA. has risen to 8th, PHP to 7th and TATE to 18th. It is very noticeable how close those above the median lie in terms of value. Much more spread in the lower regions. The median weight is now 3.04%, whereas the mean is 2.78%, 9% lower. This means that the hurdle for trimming is higher with the median than it is with the mean. I see no reason to make a change.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#348055

Postby Arborbridge » October 15th, 2020, 5:19 pm

Strange times, when one has to go down to numbers 11 and 14 to find an valid topup.

Do you remember this happening before?

Arb.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#348072

Postby tjh290633 » October 15th, 2020, 6:01 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Strange times, when one has to go down to numbers 11 and 14 to find an valid topup.

Do you remember this happening before?

Arb.

No, I have not. Were I to relax my criteria it would be a different matter, but with 6 shares providing a third of the dividend income, that might be a dodgy move.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#370858

Postby tjh290633 » December 29th, 2020, 3:34 pm

I decided this morning that holding on to my William Hill shares was a bad move, with markets likely to rise. Accordingly I sold my holding, rather than wait for completion of the deal with Caesar's.

I sold at 270p and the replacement was IG Group Holdings plc, keeping a sort of gambling focus, which I bought at 902p. I bought at slightly more than a median weight, although WMH had been at median weight on Christmas Eve, as I had a few accumulated dividends. With WMH not paying dividends, the IGG yield of 4.8%, based on last year's 43.2p total, is a useful addition to portfolio income, portfolio yield being now 3.8%.

My portfolio now looks like this:

Value                           
Rank EPIC Weight % Median
1 LGEN 3.39% 118.3%
2 BHP 3.37% 117.8%
3 PSON 3.28% 114.4%
4 RIO 3.27% 114.1%
5 SSE 3.26% 113.7%
6 DGE 3.25% 113.3%
7 ADM 3.24% 113.1%
8 AV. 3.20% 111.8%
9 BA. 3.12% 108.9%
10 PHP 3.09% 107.8%
11 IMI 3.06% 106.7%
12 BLND 3.02% 105.3%
13 IGG 3.02% 105.2%
14 UU. 3.01% 104.9%
15 TSCO 2.99% 104.4%
16 TATE 2.91% 101.5%
17 SMDS 2.90% 101.0%
18 TW. 2.88% 100.4%
19 S32 2.86% 99.6%
20 ULVR 2.80% 97.8%
21 NG. 2.78% 96.9%
22 SGRO 2.68% 93.5%
23 BATS 2.66% 92.9%
24 GSK 2.64% 92.0%
25 AZN 2.60% 90.8%
26 RDSB 2.57% 89.5%
27 BP. 2.55% 88.9%
28 VOD 2.53% 88.2%
29 KGF 2.52% 87.9%
30 RB. 2.35% 82.1%
31 MARS 2.32% 81.0%
32 BT.A 2.29% 80.0%
33 CPG 2.05% 71.4%
34 IMB 2.04% 71.0%
35 LLOY 1.95% 68.1%
36 MKS 1.58% 55.0%

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#370888

Postby idpickering » December 29th, 2020, 4:48 pm

Thanks for keeping us up to date with your recent trade Terry. I've held IG Group since August 2019, and am very happy with the share's performance thus far. And a nice yield too. IGG account for 3.8% in capital value terms of my 25 share HYP, my average IGG share buying price being 550p. So, my 62.5% capital gain in 14 months is also welcome too, but being as we're all about the income here, that gain, although nice, is still secondary to me.

Ian.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#370928

Postby daveh » December 29th, 2020, 6:40 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I decided this morning that holding on to my William Hill shares was a bad move, with markets likely to rise. Accordingly I sold my holding, rather than wait for completion of the deal with Caesar's.

I sold at 270p and the replacement was IG Group Holdings plc, keeping a sort of gambling focus, which I bought at 902p. I bought at slightly more than a median weight, although WMH had been at median weight on Christmas Eve, as I had a few accumulated dividends. With WMH not paying dividends, the IGG yield of 4.8%, based on last year's 43.2p total, is a useful addition to portfolio income, portfolio yield being now 3.8%.


Same here, sold this morning at just over 270p. Overall including dividends it showed a 70% gain, mostly from dividends. Haven't decided yet where to redeploy the money. HYPTUSS is saying SBRY, but I'm not so sure. May end up in an IT or ETF we'll see in the next few days.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371074

Postby Arborbridge » December 30th, 2020, 7:33 am

daveh wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I decided this morning that holding on to my William Hill shares was a bad move, with markets likely to rise. Accordingly I sold my holding, rather than wait for completion of the deal with Caesar's.

I sold at 270p and the replacement was IG Group Holdings plc, keeping a sort of gambling focus, which I bought at 902p. I bought at slightly more than a median weight, although WMH had been at median weight on Christmas Eve, as I had a few accumulated dividends. With WMH not paying dividends, the IGG yield of 4.8%, based on last year's 43.2p total, is a useful addition to portfolio income, portfolio yield being now 3.8%.


Same here, sold this morning at just over 270p. Overall including dividends it showed a 70% gain, mostly from dividends. Haven't decided yet where to redeploy the money. HYPTUSS is saying SBRY, but I'm not so sure. May end up in an IT or ETF we'll see in the next few days.


Bear in mind that one does not have to take the first choice offerred by HYPTUSS. The top few are likely to be quite similar in their "score", so look at the various other factors to see what may be the best action. In any case, the top few are likely to have the day in the sun sooner or later, so it may make little difference if you pick the top most or one just near the top.

Arb.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371115

Postby TUK020 » December 30th, 2020, 9:41 am

daveh wrote:Same here, sold this morning at just over 270p. Overall including dividends it showed a 70% gain, mostly from dividends. Haven't decided yet where to redeploy the money. HYPTUSS is saying SBRY, but I'm not so sure. May end up in an IT or ETF we'll see in the next few days.


One of the takeaways from the Carillion saga was that I now pay attention to the shorting activity.
SBRY figure as #2 on the list on the short tracker - 9.2% of stock shorted by 8 funds.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
I have set an arbitrary level of 5% at which I bail out.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371125

Postby Arborbridge » December 30th, 2020, 10:08 am

TUK020 wrote:
daveh wrote:Same here, sold this morning at just over 270p. Overall including dividends it showed a 70% gain, mostly from dividends. Haven't decided yet where to redeploy the money. HYPTUSS is saying SBRY, but I'm not so sure. May end up in an IT or ETF we'll see in the next few days.


One of the takeaways from the Carillion saga was that I now pay attention to the shorting activity.
SBRY figure as #2 on the list on the short tracker - 9.2% of stock shorted by 8 funds.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
I have set an arbitrary level of 5% at which I bail out.


Is there much evidence you have that this works? I've always been dubious, and I don't believe the theory was particularly well supported by CLLN, or by the opposite case of Go-Ahead group or Greene King, both of which had high shorting at times and recovered well.

My concern is that this could lead to too much trading unnecessarily. If you need to do that to sleep well, maybe HYP isn't for you?

Arb.

PS: I have and do check shorting, but would not count it as critical at 5%, certainly not to bail out.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371128

Postby TUK020 » December 30th, 2020, 10:17 am

Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
One of the takeaways from the Carillion saga was that I now pay attention to the shorting activity.
SBRY figure as #2 on the list on the short tracker - 9.2% of stock shorted by 8 funds.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
I have set an arbitrary level of 5% at which I bail out.


Is there much evidence you have that this works? I've always been dubious, and I don't believe the theory was particularly well supported by CLLN, or by the opposite case of Go-Ahead group or Greene King, both of which had high shorting at times and recovered well.

My concern is that this could lead to too much trading unnecessarily. If you need to do that to sleep well, maybe HYP isn't for you?

Arb.

PS: I have and do check shorting, but would not count it as critical at 5%, certainly not to bail out.


Hi Arb, I do accept that the 5% cut off is completely arbitrary, and that there is not any conclusive evidence to back up this approach. I do this for my own peace of mind. Currently watching VOD (4.5% shorted) and pondering if/when to get out.
I raised this here as daveh's HYPTUSS had flagged them for a top up, but he was having second thoughts..........
tuk020

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371132

Postby Arborbridge » December 30th, 2020, 10:25 am

TUK020 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
One of the takeaways from the Carillion saga was that I now pay attention to the shorting activity.
SBRY figure as #2 on the list on the short tracker - 9.2% of stock shorted by 8 funds.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
I have set an arbitrary level of 5% at which I bail out.


Is there much evidence you have that this works? I've always been dubious, and I don't believe the theory was particularly well supported by CLLN, or by the opposite case of Go-Ahead group or Greene King, both of which had high shorting at times and recovered well.

My concern is that this could lead to too much trading unnecessarily. If you need to do that to sleep well, maybe HYP isn't for you?

Arb.

PS: I have and do check shorting, but would not count it as critical at 5%, certainly not to bail out.


Hi Arb, I do accept that the 5% cut off is completely arbitrary, and that there is not any conclusive evidence to back up this approach. I do this for my own peace of mind. Currently watching VOD (4.5% shorted) and pondering if/when to get out.
I raised this here as daveh's HYPTUSS had flagged them for a top up, but he was having second thoughts..........
tuk020


I noticed VOD is "on the verge". I also notice that SBRY has been at about (or higher than) it's current level since late 2014 and does not seem to be on the verge of collapse.

Shorting is about traders playing games, and whilst it is true it could be a case of "there's no smoke without fire" the question really is: how big is the fire, and will it be easy to put it out?

I'd be checking the change in shorting and the comparison with previous heights as well as the level. VOD doesn't look too good on either of these measures, but I still wouldn't panic. HYP is LTBH, although that does sometime become LTBHR, R being "regret" :lol:
Arb.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371137

Postby moorfield » December 30th, 2020, 10:33 am

Arborbridge wrote: HYP is LTBH, although that does sometime become LTBHR, R being "regret" :lol:


For a moment there I thought you meant R being "recycle". Which is what TJH does of course.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371179

Postby TUK020 » December 30th, 2020, 11:42 am

Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Is there much evidence you have that this works? I've always been dubious, and I don't believe the theory was particularly well supported by CLLN, or by the opposite case of Go-Ahead group or Greene King, both of which had high shorting at times and recovered well.

My concern is that this could lead to too much trading unnecessarily. If you need to do that to sleep well, maybe HYP isn't for you?

Arb.

PS: I have and do check shorting, but would not count it as critical at 5%, certainly not to bail out.


Hi Arb, I do accept that the 5% cut off is completely arbitrary, and that there is not any conclusive evidence to back up this approach. I do this for my own peace of mind. Currently watching VOD (4.5% shorted) and pondering if/when to get out.
I raised this here as daveh's HYPTUSS had flagged them for a top up, but he was having second thoughts..........
tuk020


I noticed VOD is "on the verge". I also notice that SBRY has been at about (or higher than) it's current level since late 2014 and does not seem to be on the verge of collapse.

Shorting is about traders playing games, and whilst it is true it could be a case of "there's no smoke without fire" the question really is: how big is the fire, and will it be easy to put it out?

I'd be checking the change in shorting and the comparison with previous heights as well as the level. VOD doesn't look too good on either of these measures, but I still wouldn't panic. HYP is LTBH, although that does sometime become LTBHR, R being "regret" :lol:
Arb.


Shorting is not just "traders playing games" for higher yielding stocks. The shorters who borrow the stock, have to cough up to service the dividend.
In VOD's case, this means they have to part with serious money in Feb. This is a significant bet that the stock is heading south.

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371180

Postby absolutezero » December 30th, 2020, 11:42 am

TUK020 wrote:
daveh wrote:Same here, sold this morning at just over 270p. Overall including dividends it showed a 70% gain, mostly from dividends. Haven't decided yet where to redeploy the money. HYPTUSS is saying SBRY, but I'm not so sure. May end up in an IT or ETF we'll see in the next few days.


One of the takeaways from the Carillion saga was that I now pay attention to the shorting activity.
SBRY figure as #2 on the list on the short tracker - 9.2% of stock shorted by 8 funds.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
I have set an arbitrary level of 5% at which I bail out.

Speaking of Carillion. It's still on the short tracker. Why might that be?

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371182

Postby TUK020 » December 30th, 2020, 11:45 am

absolutezero wrote:Speaking of Carillion. It's still on the short tracker. Why might that be?


Position never closed out? After all, they didn't need to. Have to wait until someone scrubs the data

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371286

Postby Breelander » December 30th, 2020, 3:08 pm

absolutezero wrote:Speaking of Carillion. It's still on the short tracker. Why might that be?


Because trading is only suspended, it has not (yet) been delisted. As to why, I can find no explanation..

Trading in shares of Carillion Plc (LSE: CLLN) was suspended on 15 January 2018....It is expected that Carillion Plc will be delisted from the London Stock Exchange in due course....
https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/business ... lders.html

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371298

Postby tjh290633 » December 30th, 2020, 3:32 pm

I have noticed an interesting side effect of my sale of WMH and purchase of IGG yesterday. My top up table has changed slightly:

Top-up          Income                     Cost                
Rank EPIC Rank EPIC % Income Rank Epic % Cost
1 IMB* 1 LGEN 5.87% 1 AV. 4.59%
2 BP.*+ 2 AV. 5.39% 2 PSON 4.28%
3 VOD* 3 BATS 5.39% 3 BP. 4.27%
4 BATS* 4 BP. 5.15% 4 RDSB 4.27%
5 GSK 5 IMB 4.77% 5 LLOY 4.22%
6 NG. 6 RIO 4.58% 6 MARS 4.18%
7 RDSB*+ 7 SSE 4.50% 7 GSK 4.07%
8 MKS# 8 VOD 4.38% 8 BT.A 4.03%
9 RB. 9 ADM 4.30% 9 MKS 3.86%
10 IGG 10 NG. 4.17% 10 PHP 3.66%
11 AV.*+ 11 GSK 4.16% 11 IGG 3.59%
12 AZN 12 UU. 3.78% 12 S32 3.57%
13 MARS# 13 BA. 3.78% 13 TSCO 3.51%
14 TATE 14 IGG 3.43% 14 BLND 3.49%
15 BT.A# 15 TATE 3.34% 15 BHP 3.38%
16 CPG# 16 BHP 3.33% 16 LGEN 3.28%
17 LGEN* 17 TSCO 3.27% 17 SSE 3.14%
18 LLOY+ 18 PHP 2.88% 18 KGF 3.02%
19 RIO* 19 BLND 2.64% 19 BATS 2.90%
20 UU. 20 RDSB 2.63% 20 VOD 2.87%

As you will be aware, I disqualify any share from topping up if, by adding 20% to the holding, its share of either dividend income(*) or portfolio cost(+) would rise over 5%. This sets a limit of about 4.2% on those parameters for disqualification. I also disregard any share currently not paying dividends(#).

What has happened is that NG. and GSK now become eligible on income share grounds and MARS becomes eligible on cost grounds, although disregarded because of lack of dividends. LLOY is also on the cusp of becoming eligible on cost grounds, should it resume dividends.

I do not expect to have sufficient funds available for a top-up until February, so the situation could well change before then.

TJH

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371795

Postby absolutezero » December 31st, 2020, 8:06 pm

Breelander wrote:
absolutezero wrote:Speaking of Carillion. It's still on the short tracker. Why might that be?


Because trading is only suspended, it has not (yet) been delisted. As to why, I can find no explanation..

Trading in shares of Carillion Plc (LSE: CLLN) was suspended on 15 January 2018....It is expected that Carillion Plc will be delisted from the London Stock Exchange in due course....
https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/business ... lders.html

Didn't know the stock exchange was run by the public sector :lol:

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371820

Postby Breelander » December 31st, 2020, 9:20 pm

absolutezero wrote:...Didn't know the stock exchange was run by the public sector :lol:


As far as liquidations go - no, it's run by accountants. :( If you look through HMRC's list of 'negligible value claims' you can see that typically it takes 10-15 years until a company finally gets legally dissolved.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/negligible-value-agreements

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Re: TJH Portfolio adjustment

#371980

Postby 88V8 » January 1st, 2021, 11:49 am

Breelander wrote:....typically it takes 10-15 years until a company finally gets legally dissolved.

Carillion was an oddity perhaps as I have a note that it was declared of negligible value on 15 Jan 2018, and I claimed it against CGT.
Indeed, I see it on the list Bree kindly posted.
It was also delisted by my broker, whereas Interserve is still sitting there in my portfolio like an old piece of chewing gum.

V8


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