Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
Forum rules
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
Alaric
Lemon Half
Posts: 6031
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:05 am
Has thanked: 20 times
Been thanked: 1398 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405173

Postby Alaric » April 18th, 2021, 6:40 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:Not a bad selection that.


It's a thought that as compared with eighteen months or two years ago, the companies that couldn't really afford their dividends were amongst those taking the opportunity to cancel or cut, leaving the higher quality but lower yielding ones in the frame.

idpickering
The full Lemon
Posts: 11275
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 2468 times
Been thanked: 5761 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405210

Postby idpickering » April 19th, 2021, 6:05 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:Not a bad selection that. A portfolio held as weighted by MCP would be yielding a shade over 5%


I hold all of them bar seven, in my 25 share HYP. Those absent being IMB, MNG, EVR, PSN, POLY, AV., and SVT.

Ian.

csearle
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4762
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 2:24 pm
Has thanked: 4809 times
Been thanked: 2083 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405483

Postby csearle » April 19th, 2021, 10:07 pm

Alaric wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:Not a bad selection that.


It's a thought that as compared with eighteen months or two years ago, the companies that couldn't really afford their dividends were amongst those taking the opportunity to cancel or cut, leaving the higher quality but lower yielding ones in the frame.
I hear LUniversal echoing through my brain. C.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#405588

Postby Arborbridge » April 20th, 2021, 1:35 pm

Alaric wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:Not a bad selection that.


It's a thought that as compared with eighteen months or two years ago, the companies that couldn't really afford their dividends were amongst those taking the opportunity to cancel or cut, leaving the higher quality but lower yielding ones in the frame.


We would need someone to come up with some proper numbers to show that is true. We would also need to find out what happens to those company dividends in the next, say, three years, to reinforce your point, or otherwise.

Arb.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#412133

Postby Arborbridge » May 15th, 2021, 12:51 pm

I thought an update might be instructive:-

Image

As you can see, the pink and yellow lines have moved closer together. There is now only a 3% difference between the forecast as given by HYPTUSS with no correction, and my own estimate where I think correction is needed. 3% difference is quite low - I would hardly expect a rough and ready 12 months forecast to do any better.
In my view, the HYPTUSS is now giving a "raw" uncorrected answer which is good enough for a quick look ahead for budgeting and buying and selling decisions - though I would expect always to check the target shares for any "funnies" before proceeding, naturally.

The dark blue line is my unit price for the HYP asset value.

Arb.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#432581

Postby Itsallaguess » August 5th, 2021, 7:21 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
Would you forecasters like to give an indication of your forecast for HSBC's restored dividend, if any?

The range of possibilities is far too wide to make any forecast and the only sensible one is nil, that is the same as for 2020.

We may get a bit more and my method will treat that as a nice bonus but I do not fuss over it as I assume a forecaster must.


[Note - the post below was posted on November 7th, 2020]

Sharecast is currently showing a Forecast Yield for HSBA of 1.7% -

https://www.sharecast.com/equity/HSBC_Holdings

There's no 'fuss' in getting that data - it's all done automatically for many of us who use that facility, so overplaying the 'fuss' card is actually another red-herring Dod - there's no 'fuss' in using these broker-forecasts, as the brokers do all the 'fussing' for us as part of their day-job in talking to the companies themselves, and it's clear from hearing how the 'non-forecasters' are doing things on this thread that there's actually a lot more 'fuss' in those methods in terms of manual-interventions and data-gathering than using this freely available broker-forecast data...

Anyway, I think it's a good opportunity to test our different theories on something like HSBA, so at a current price of 337.8p, and a Sharecast Forward Yield of 1.7%, they are proposing a total dividend in the next 12-month period of around 5.74p, whereas you're manually assuming there will be no dividends paid in the next 12 months, so it'll be an interesting exercise to re-visit this thread later next year.


I thought it might be worth revisiting this topic now that HSBA have recently declared their interim results, so the 12-month period up to November 2021 discussed in the above posts should now be covered by the available data.

In November 2020, Sharecast were showing a Forecast Yield for HSBA of 1.7%, which equated against a share price of 337.8p at that time to provice forecast dividend of around 5.74p over the following 12-month period up to November 2021.

The only dividend declared during that period, as far as I'm aware, has been from the most recent interims, which has been declared at $0.07 per share -

• The Board has announced an interim dividend for 1H21 of $0.07 per ordinary share, to be paid in cash with no scrip alternative.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/hsbc-holdings-plc--hsba-/rns/half-year-report---part-1-of-3/202108021634132692H/

If we look at the sterling equivalent based on current exchange-rates, which might change of course, that currently comes out at around 5p per share in sterling terms, so we can see that the Sharecast Forecast Yield of 1.7% back in November of last year, for the coming 12-month period, which equated to around 5.74p per share at that time, isn't all that far away from the current exchange-rated 5p per share that's been declared...

If we compare that fairly close and useful forecast against your assumption that nothing at all would be paid, does it go any way to convince you that the type of Forecast Yield data that's readily available using these processes might be more useful and accurate than the assumption that you made, which has been shown to be far wider of the actual delivered result?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Dod101
The full Lemon
Posts: 16629
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 4343 times
Been thanked: 7534 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#432587

Postby Dod101 » August 5th, 2021, 7:35 am

I guess IAAG that your latest comments are for my benefit. If so, guilty as charged. The earlier forecast was not far off but more to the point to me anyway is the fact that the yield is pretty miserable. I will probably though just hang on and see how things develop.

Dod

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10366
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3599 times
Been thanked: 5227 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#432592

Postby Arborbridge » August 5th, 2021, 7:43 am

Itsallaguess wrote:
If we compare that fairly close and useful forecast against your assumption that nothing at all would be paid, does it go any way to convince you that the type of Forecast Yield data that's readily available using these processes might be more useful and accurate than the assumption that you made, which has been shown to be far wider of the actual delivered result?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


And your's is an even more powerful argument at portfolio level, which is what interests me. After all, HYP relies on the "portfolio effect" which should mean the investment whole is stronger than the parts - i.e. the good and bad estimates and choices are averaged to produce a decent result.

People can fly blind if they choose, but I'd rather have some sort of idea of what my income may be over the next year, and over the past decade the forecasts have been most helpful - with the understandable exception of the covid period.

AAMOI I find there is little difference now between the "raw" HYPTUSS run and my manually corrected version (based on new published about dividends) as regards overall income , so I've stopped bothering to check the difference from a month ago.

Arb.

funduffer
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1327
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:11 pm
Has thanked: 122 times
Been thanked: 831 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#432617

Postby funduffer » August 5th, 2021, 8:55 am

Thanks IAAG.

Ditto Lloyds - better forecast than Zero!

FD

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10023 times

Re: Forecast Yields - do we believe them yet?

#432627

Postby Itsallaguess » August 5th, 2021, 9:19 am

Dod101 wrote:
I guess IAAG that your latest comments are for my benefit. If so, guilty as charged.

The earlier forecast was not far off but more to the point to me anyway is the fact that the yield is pretty miserable.


It was really just to start to wrap up the live experiment that we said we'd look at when we both had a view on what the future HSBA dividend situation might be last November, based on our own preferred method of judgement at that time..

I agree with Arb's later note where he mentions how useful these automated forecast yields are when presented at portfolio level, and like him, I continue to witness close ongoing alignment with future portfolio income when set against previously taken forecasts, without any of the hassle of manually recording any individual dividend details as and when they get released by individual holdings...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Return to “HYP Practical (See Group Guidelines)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests