Dod101 wrote:Why do investors need a forecast dividend anyway? What is the purpose? In normal times I use the trailing yield (actual income for the last 12 months/ current value) but currently that does not work for all shares because as we know same have cancelled their dividends and others have drastically reduced them. For me that applies only to Imperial Brands and Shell having reduced their dividends and to HSBC having cancelled them. Otherwise for the sake of comparison, I can continue to use the trailing yield.
That avoids my having to worry about forecasts and how to check them and avoids worrying about the reliability of any particular site. Keep it simple.
Dod
Let's look at HSBC. The Sharecast consensus yield is 1.7% (as of this weekend). So analysts as a group consider that HSBC will restart dividends at a modest level next year. Do I believe this is 100% accurate? NO, because there is too much uncertainty in the sector. with interference from authorities. The forecast for Lloyds is 1.4%, so again for a modest dividend next year.
So why do I bother even looking at this data?
1. It gives me some re-assurance that Banks will return to dividends next year, so I should probably continue to hold to see what happens. (Contrast that to say, Marstons, where the forecast is 0%).
2. I have money to top-up my HYP. Should I spend it on HSBC (or LLOY)? Probably not. The forecast yields are too low, and I could get better income elsewhere.
So overall, it indicates I should HOLD HSBC.
This is what HYPTUSS does for you. It is a sieve that filters out the most likely top-up candidates within your HYP, but does rely on you having some faith in the credibility of the financial analysts that provide the underlying data.
FD