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Dividend return

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Breelander
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Re: Dividend return

#398929

Postby Breelander » March 25th, 2021, 3:15 pm

Bena48 wrote:My dividends for my HYP were down 35% during the last financial year.
Curious as to how others fared.

I have already said that at the end of the calendar year 2020 * "After deducting costs the net dividend/unit was 4.196p, a fall of -37.9% (2019: 6.758p)."

* (well, Christmas eve actually. But as no dividends were paid between 24th and 31st December it's effectively the same thing)

Since the start of this year some of the suspended dividends have been reinstated, so the figure for the end of calendar year 2020 probably marks the low point.

Arborbridge wrote:When you say the last financial year, which one do you mean? This one hasn't ended yet..


Arb is correct, the 2020/21 financial year hasn't ended yet. However, all dividends expected to be paid this financial year have already been declared, it should be possible to say with confidence what the income would be. On that basis I calculate my f/y 2020/21 income will be some 17.2% lower than that of f/y 2019/20.

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Re: Dividend return

#398975

Postby Gengulphus » March 25th, 2021, 5:24 pm

Breelander wrote:
Bena48 wrote:My dividends for my HYP were down 35% during the last financial year.
Curious as to how others fared.

I have already said that at the end of the calendar year 2020 * "After deducting costs the net dividend/unit was 4.196p, a fall of -37.9% (2019: 6.758p)."

* (well, Christmas eve actually. But as no dividends were paid between 24th and 31st December it's effectively the same thing)

Since the start of this year some of the suspended dividends have been reinstated, so the figure for the end of calendar year 2020 probably marks the low point.

I don't think that's at all clear. Dividends paid in the 2020/2021 tax year can be calculated from dividends paid in the 2020 calendar year by adding dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th in this year and subtracting dividends paid between 1st January and 5th April last year.

The vast majority of the dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th last year were 'pre-pandemic' ones - i.e. dividends that were declared before the severity of the pandemic became clear and paid on their normal payment dates (there were lots of 2019 final dividends for companies whose financial years were calendar years that ended up being cancelled or suspended, but all or almost all of them had normal payment dates after April 5th). Dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th this year will generally include the corresponding 'post-pandemic' dividends paid on their normal payment dates, which will include a lot that have been cancelled or cut: that can be expected to have produced quite a large reduction in paid-on-normal-date dividends. It also includes a fair number of reinstated, previously-suspended dividends, which can be expected to counteract that reduction, but are there enough of them to fully counteract it (or even reverse it)?

My general impression is no, I haven't seen enough companies reinstating their previously-suspended dividends to fully reverse the general pre-pandemic-to-post-pandemic reduction. But that impression might be mistaken - so I'm just saying that I regard it as unclear that the end of calendar year 2020 marks the low spot. If I had to bet, I think I would bet on the low point being around now - but mainly, I'm glad I don't have to bet!

Gengulphus

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Re: Dividend return

#398986

Postby Breelander » March 25th, 2021, 6:05 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Breelander wrote:I have already said that at the end of the calendar year 2020 * "After deducting costs the net dividend/unit was 4.196p, a fall of -37.9% (2019: 6.758p)."...

Since the start of this year some of the suspended dividends have been reinstated, so the figure for the end of calendar year 2020 probably marks the low point.

I don't think that's at all clear. Dividends paid in the 2020/2021 tax year can be calculated from dividends paid in the 2020 calendar year by adding dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th in this year and subtracting dividends paid between 1st January and 5th April last year.

The vast majority of the dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th last year were 'pre-pandemic' ones - i.e. dividends that were declared before the severity of the pandemic became clear and paid on their normal payment dates...

My general impression is no, I haven't seen enough companies reinstating their previously-suspended dividends to fully reverse the general pre-pandemic-to-post-pandemic reduction. But that impression might be mistaken - so I'm just saying that I regard it as unclear that the end of calendar year 2020 marks the low spot. If I had to bet, I think I would bet on the low point being around now - but mainly, I'm glad I don't have to bet!


How long is a piece of string? My point was that you can calculate the trailing twelve months of dividends at any date you like then compare it with the same dates in the previous year. Doing so at the end of 2020 gave a fall of 38.9%, doing so today gives me a 17.2% shortfall (not a 'full reversal' as you imply that I claimed).

I think my second point should have been that you can prove almost anything if you choose your dates carefully. I think it will be a long time yet before any year-on-year comparison has any real meaning ;)

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Re: Dividend return

#399112

Postby funduffer » March 26th, 2021, 8:39 am

Breelander wrote:
How long is a piece of string? My point was that you can calculate the trailing twelve months of dividends at any date you like then compare it with the same dates in the previous year. Doing so at the end of 2020 gave a fall of 38.9%, doing so today gives me a 17.2% shortfall (not a 'full reversal' as you imply that I claimed).

I think my second point should have been that you can prove almost anything if you choose your dates carefully. I think it will be a long time yet before any year-on-year comparison has any real meaning ;)


Indeed, choosing specific dates can mislead.

I unitise my HYP, calculating income per unit at the end of each month, using the previous 12 months' income and the current number of units. Using this measure, income per unit started falling in December 2019, accelerated through the pandemic, and is still falling now. Looking forward with dividends announced, I can see this curve bottoming out in Q2 of this year, and hopefully recovering from there onwards.

I think it will take a long time to get back to the dizzy heights of December 2019 though.

FD

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Re: Dividend return

#399315

Postby Arborbridge » March 26th, 2021, 5:46 pm

Bena48 wrote:My dividends for my HYP were down 35% during the last financial year.
Curious as to how others fared.


Mine will be 22% down in actual £. (tax year 2020 compared with 2021)

In pence per unit, I haven't checked, but I notice that the first quarter this year is up on the same quarter last year by 12.1%.

Arb.

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Re: Dividend return

#399355

Postby Gengulphus » March 26th, 2021, 8:26 pm

Breelander wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:
Breelander wrote:I have already said that at the end of the calendar year 2020 * "After deducting costs the net dividend/unit was 4.196p, a fall of -37.9% (2019: 6.758p)."...

Since the start of this year some of the suspended dividends have been reinstated, so the figure for the end of calendar year 2020 probably marks the low point.

I don't think that's at all clear. Dividends paid in the 2020/2021 tax year can be calculated from dividends paid in the 2020 calendar year by adding dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th in this year and subtracting dividends paid between 1st January and 5th April last year.

The vast majority of the dividends paid between January 1st and April 5th last year were 'pre-pandemic' ones - i.e. dividends that were declared before the severity of the pandemic became clear and paid on their normal payment dates...

My general impression is no, I haven't seen enough companies reinstating their previously-suspended dividends to fully reverse the general pre-pandemic-to-post-pandemic reduction. But that impression might be mistaken - so I'm just saying that I regard it as unclear that the end of calendar year 2020 marks the low spot. If I had to bet, I think I would bet on the low point being around now - but mainly, I'm glad I don't have to bet!

How long is a piece of string? My point was that you can calculate the trailing twelve months of dividends at any date you like then compare it with the same dates in the previous year. Doing so at the end of 2020 gave a fall of 38.9%, doing so today gives me a 17.2% shortfall (not a 'full reversal' as you imply that I claimed).

Actually, I saw that you said "probably marks the low point" (my bold) and so didn't think you'd actually claimed anything at all, but were just commenting on what seemed likely. But I'm afraid I overlooked the 17.2% figure in the later section of that post, which if I'd noticed it would have told me that you were working from more certain figures than that "probably" suggested. Sorry about that.

Gengulphus

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Re: Dividend return

#399370

Postby moorfield » March 26th, 2021, 9:21 pm

Breelander wrote:How long is a piece of string?


This long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i577LmfHOsk

I was just passing through on the way to collect my coat. Ah, there it is ...

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Re: Dividend return

#399580

Postby Bouleversee » March 27th, 2021, 5:17 pm

I haven't had time to work out the comparisons yet but all I am interested in is the difference in total dividends received between one tax year and the next, even if some are in ISAs and so not taxable. I don't care what the companies' financial years are. I have just received one which will make a great difference to the large drop in total dividends received between April 5 2020 and April 4 2021. That is a dividend of £1810 from Persimmon, not bad for a total book cost of £8608.62, mostly at £4.54 in June 16 with a top up at £21.12 in April 2017, reduced by substantial returns of capital and special dividends in subsequent years. At Friday's s.p. of £30.21 my holding is now worth 408.19% of the original purchase price, not deducting all the large payments received since then. I haven't worked out how much, if anything, the shares actually cost me if I were to take those into account. Happily they are in my ISA.

PSN has had its ups and downs, with greedy directors and poor quality control and now cladding issues to deal with, not to mention a Covid drop, and I know I ought to take some profits but it is one of the few holdings I have which have done really well and helps to balance some spectacular losses after I started to buy HYP shares so will I be able to pull the trigger? We'll see if I get round to it before they have another steep drop. Goodness knows what I would do with the proceeds other than spend them on work needed in house and garden and gift them to needy children. I have lost confidence in any ability to forecast share movements or anticipate events.

Dod, what percentage of your holding do you usually take when topslicing something which appears to have got a bit ahead of itself such as your SMT?

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Re: Dividend return

#399647

Postby Bena48 » March 27th, 2021, 9:33 pm

Thanks for all the replies. To no ones surprise there is a spread of outcomes across peoples HYP's. We seem to have those that have performed roughly on par with the year before and others that are down by 30 to 35%. Although mine is near the bottom of his range there are factors that make the result more palatable. I sold 15% of my shares in March last year and traded in some creaky looking high yielders (e.g BATS) for other shares that I hope will last the course but do not have the equivalent yields. My yield for the portfolio roughly 14 months ago was 5.5% and has declined to 4.95% now. Perhaps asking for peoples overall improvement/decline in dividend yield would have a better question?

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Re: Dividend return

#399655

Postby 88V8 » March 27th, 2021, 10:31 pm

Bena48 wrote: Perhaps asking for peoples overall improvement/decline in dividend yield would have a better question?

It will be 12 months hence, when things have settled again.

V8

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Re: Dividend return

#399677

Postby AJC5001 » March 28th, 2021, 12:30 am

Bouleversee wrote: I have just received one which will make a great difference to the large drop in total dividends received between April 5 2020 and April 4 2021. That is a dividend of £1810 from Persimmon, not bad for a total book cost of £8608.62, mostly at £4.54 in June 16 with a top up at £21.12 in April 2017, reduced by substantial returns of capital and special dividends in subsequent years. At Friday's s.p. of £30.21 my holding is now worth 408.19% of the original purchase price, not deducting all the large payments received since then. I haven't worked out how much, if anything, the shares actually cost me if I were to take those into account. Happily they are in my ISA.


I too have had my recent Persimmon dividend, but received significantly less dividend so I looked with interest at your other numbers. Are you sure about paying £4.54 in June 16? When I look at the 5 year chart on Yahoo https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSN.L?p=PSN.L (click the '5Y' on the chart and use the cursor to position the vertical line on the chart at the first low point at the left hand side of the chart - shows 1st June 2016) it looks like the price on 1st June 2016 was £14.47. Perhaps you've 'lost' the first digit and you paid £14.54 rather than £4.54?

Adrian

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Re: Dividend return

#399736

Postby Gengulphus » March 28th, 2021, 12:17 pm

Bena48 wrote:Thanks for all the replies. To no ones surprise there is a spread of outcomes across peoples HYP's. We seem to have those that have performed roughly on par with the year before and others that are down by 30 to 35%. Although mine is near the bottom of his range there are factors that make the result more palatable. I sold 15% of my shares in March last year and traded in some creaky looking high yielders (e.g BATS) for other shares that I hope will last the course but do not have the equivalent yields. My yield for the portfolio roughly 14 months ago was 5.5% and has declined to 4.95% now. Perhaps asking for peoples overall improvement/decline in dividend yield would have a better question?

No, I don't think that would have been a better question. The yield of a HYP can change either because the income it produces changes or because its capital value changes. So for instance:

* A HYP worth £80k and producing £4k income a year ago, and now worth £100k and producing £4.4k has seen its yield drop from 5.0% to 4.4%, but its income has grown by 10%.

* A HYP worth £100k and producing £5k income a year ago, and now worth £80k and producing £4.4k has seen its yield increase from 5.0% to 5.5%, but its income has shrunk by 12%.

Yields can increase either because the dividend income increases (good) or because the capital value decreases (not good (*)), or for a mixture of those reasons. Similarly, yields can decrease because the dividend income decreases (bad) or because the capital value increases (not bad (*)), or again a mixture of those reasons. And if capital and income move in the same direction, you get a mixture of one causing the yield to increase and the other causing it to decrease, with the outcome depending on which has the stronger effect. So basically, any change to yield can happen for reasons that might be anywhere on the awful/bad/poor/neutral/mediocre/good/excellent scale, and so tells you nothing much about how the HYP is doing, and therefore I would suggest that HYPers should totally ignore changes to yield. Looking at changes to income generated and/or changes to capital value can each tell you something useful about how the HYP is doing, but changes to yield mix up the effects of changes to income generated and capital value to produce figures that are not useful (**).

For an individual HYPer, the percentage change to the dividend income generated by the HYP is a perfectly good measure of progress towards the primary HYP goal of income generation (***). But for comparing between HYPers, it has the problem you indicate that it's affected by what purchases and sales the HYPer does in the year - and how significantly it's affected depends heavily on the HYPer's circumstances. E.g. if the HYPer is building up their HYP by investing £20k per year in an ISA, and they've just finished their second year of that, they would sort-of-expect their dividend income to have risen 100% or more between their first and second years, and be rather disappointed if it hadn't risen by at least that. If on the other hand they've already been building up their HYP for several years, they should be very surprised and pleased to get anything like a 100% year-on-year increase to income!

Percentage changes to dividend income per income unit are still vulnerable to some distortions for what additions/removals of capital individual HYPers do, but generally a lot less so than percentage changes to dividend income, so they're quite a good thing to ask for from the point of view of comparing between HYPers. But they suffer from the disadvantage that many HYPers don't unitise (or only do accumulation unit unitisation), and doing income unit unitisation from scratch be quite a bit of work - so if you ask for that, you may not get many responses!

One other possibility I can think of for what you might ask: ask people to split the shares they held during the year into three groups, which I'll subsequently call groups H, A and D for short:

Holds) Shares they held at the start of the year and still held at the end of the year.

Acquisitions) Shares they didn't hold at the start of the year, but did hold at the end of the year.

Disposals) Shares they held at the start of the year, but no longer held at the end of the year.

To be clear, I mean "shares" in that, not "holdings". E.g. if one held 250 AstraZeneca shares at the start of the year and trimmed the holding down to 200 during the year, that's 200 AstraZeneca shares in group H and 50 in group D, not a varying-size AstraZeneca holding in group A and nothing in either of the other groups.

Then determine five dividend totals: the previous year's dividends from groups H and D, and this year's dividends from all three groups. Then ask for each of this year's dividends from group H, this year's dividends from group A, and both the previous year's dividends and this year's dividends from group D, all as percentages of the previous year's dividends from group H. The idea is that the first of those percentages (this year's dividends from group H as a percentage of the previous year's dividends from group H) tells one about the 'natural' percentage change delivered by the part of the HYP which wasn't affected by the HYPer's actions, while the other three add information about the changes to dividends 'artificially' generated by changes to the HYP.

Generating that information still involves some work, but I think it would usually be quite a bit less than doing income unit unitisation for a HYP that hadn't previously been unitised - so it might be more palatable to some HYPers.

But I think the real answer is that HYPers vary enormously about how much they keep in the way of records, what calculations they already do, and how much extra work they're willing to put into for the sake of answering a question like this. So I suspect the best question would be something along the lines of "Please provide any information you're willing and able to about how the dividends you've received / will receive in the 2020/2021tax year compare with the dividends you received in the 2019/2020 tax year. In doing so, please be clear about just what the information you're providing is - e.g. percentage change to dividends received, or percentage change to dividend income per income unit, or various other possibilities - and please mention significant changes to the HYP for context."

(*) A HYPer who strongly and genuinely thinks that "capital doesn't matter" would regard both of these cases as "neutral" rather than "good" or "bad"; a HYPer who believes "capital is of secondary importance" would regard them as "bad" and "good" respectively. I've chosen the wordings "not good" and "not bad" to apply to either of those beliefs.

(**) One might wonder what the point of high yield is if one is not to look at changes to yield. The answer (or at least my answer) is that its point is basically restricted to yields at the point of purchase (and at the point of sale if you sell). At that point, the yield tells you how much income you will get for the capital you're investing (or giving up for the capital you're extracting). Or put another way, the "HY" in "HYP" refers to what a HYP's investments are (shares that are high yield at the point of purchase), not to an investment objective about the HYP's portfolio yield being high.

(***) Just to be clear, I am only saying that's the primary goal of the strategy. Whether it's the primary goal of the HYPer is up to each HYPer to decide for themselves!

Gengulphus

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Re: Dividend return

#399748

Postby csearle » March 28th, 2021, 12:34 pm

My income is down from £11.90p/unit this day in 2020 to £8.09p/unit (so 32%).

ImageI own (or am legally permitted to post) the content of this image.

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Re: Dividend return

#399799

Postby Bouleversee » March 28th, 2021, 2:29 pm

AJC5001 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote: I have just received one which will make a great difference to the large drop in total dividends received between April 5 2020 and April 4 2021. That is a dividend of £1810 from Persimmon, not bad for a total book cost of £8608.62, mostly at £4.54 in June 16 with a top up at £21.12 in April 2017, reduced by substantial returns of capital and special dividends in subsequent years. At Friday's s.p. of £30.21 my holding is now worth 408.19% of the original purchase price, not deducting all the large payments received since then. I haven't worked out how much, if anything, the shares actually cost me if I were to take those into account. Happily they are in my ISA.


I too have had my recent Persimmon dividend, but received significantly less dividend so I looked with interest at your other numbers. Are you sure about paying £4.54 in June 16? When I look at the 5 year chart on Yahoo https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSN.L?p=PSN.L (click the '5Y' on the chart and use the cursor to position the vertical line on the chart at the first low point at the left hand side of the chart - shows 1st June 2016) it looks like the price on 1st June 2016 was £14.47. Perhaps you've 'lost' the first digit and you paid £14.54 rather than £4.54?

Adrian


I'm sure I paid £4.54 inc. costs but I took the info. from my IWeb account rather than my own records and didn't clock or forgot that June 2016 was the date of the transfer to them from another broker rather than the purchase date which was in fact 27.5.2002 according to my own records so my large (for me, at any rate) profit on top of multiple capital returns (without consolidation) and special dividends took rather longer but it was still very good by my standards. Apologies for the confusion.

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Re: Dividend return

#399833

Postby Gersemi » March 28th, 2021, 4:38 pm

I bought my Persimmon shares in May 2008 at £4.91. They stopped paying dividends almost immediately and were a pretty poor performer until 2013 when they started the capital return plan. They have now paid out over twice my purchase cost and are worth 6 times what I paid for them. One case where hanging on paid off in the end!

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Re: Dividend return

#399849

Postby funduffer » March 28th, 2021, 5:20 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
I'm sure I paid £4.54 inc. costs but I took the info. from my IWeb account rather than my own records and didn't clock or forgot that June 2016 was the date of the transfer to them from another broker rather than the purchase date which was in fact 27.5.2002 according to my own records so my large (for me, at any rate) profit on top of multiple capital returns (without consolidation) and special dividends took rather longer but it was still very good by my standards. Apologies for the confusion.


If you do a transfer to iWeb, then the acquisition price they record is always wrong, in my experience. You can ask them to correct it if you want to, eg for capital gains tax purposes, but the price they quote seems to be completely arbitrary.

FD

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Re: Dividend return

#399870

Postby Bouleversee » March 28th, 2021, 6:31 pm

funduffer wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
I'm sure I paid £4.54 inc. costs but I took the info. from my IWeb account rather than my own records and didn't clock or forgot that June 2016 was the date of the transfer to them from another broker rather than the purchase date which was in fact 27.5.2002 according to my own records so my large (for me, at any rate) profit on top of multiple capital returns (without consolidation) and special dividends took rather longer but it was still very good by my standards. Apologies for the confusion.


If you do a transfer to iWeb, then the acquisition price they record is always wrong, in my experience. You can ask them to correct it if you want to, eg for capital gains tax purposes, but the price they quote seems to be completely arbitrary.

FD


It was correct at £4.54 in this case.

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Re: Dividend return

#399873

Postby Bouleversee » March 28th, 2021, 6:41 pm

Gersemi wrote:I bought my Persimmon shares in May 2008 at £4.91. They stopped paying dividends almost immediately and were a pretty poor performer until 2013 when they started the capital return plan. They have now paid out over twice my purchase cost and are worth 6 times what I paid for them. One case where hanging on paid off in the end!


I, too, was losing for a while but as you say, for once it paid to hang on, which is by no means always the case. I have doubled losses by topping up after a big fall in several cases, only to see them go bust or stay indefinitely in the doldrums, not worth selling.

I gather from an article in Sun. Times today that PSN has a price-to-book ratio of over 2 which they say makes it look rather expensive though they are plugging housebuilders in general, saying that Vistry, Bellway, Redrow and Crest Nicholson are all at the cheap end of the scale. I also have Taylor Wimpey which has not done at all well for me and am not tempted to add any more.

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Re: Dividend return

#399878

Postby AJC5001 » March 28th, 2021, 6:53 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
AJC5001 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote: I have just received one which will make a great difference to the large drop in total dividends received between April 5 2020 and April 4 2021. That is a dividend of £1810 from Persimmon, not bad for a total book cost of £8608.62, mostly at £4.54 in June 16 with a top up at £21.12 in April 2017, reduced by substantial returns of capital and special dividends in subsequent years. At Friday's s.p. of £30.21 my holding is now worth 408.19% of the original purchase price, not deducting all the large payments received since then. I haven't worked out how much, if anything, the shares actually cost me if I were to take those into account. Happily they are in my ISA.


I too have had my recent Persimmon dividend, but received significantly less dividend so I looked with interest at your other numbers. Are you sure about paying £4.54 in June 16? When I look at the 5 year chart on Yahoo https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSN.L?p=PSN.L (click the '5Y' on the chart and use the cursor to position the vertical line on the chart at the first low point at the left hand side of the chart - shows 1st June 2016) it looks like the price on 1st June 2016 was £14.47. Perhaps you've 'lost' the first digit and you paid £14.54 rather than £4.54?

Adrian


I'm sure I paid £4.54 inc. costs but I took the info. from my IWeb account rather than my own records and didn't clock or forgot that June 2016 was the date of the transfer to them from another broker rather than the purchase date which was in fact 27.5.2002 according to my own records so my large (for me, at any rate) profit on top of multiple capital returns (without consolidation) and special dividends took rather longer but it was still very good by my standards. Apologies for the confusion.


Thanks for clarifying :) I did wonder if it was the date that was wrong (it was either the price or the date!) but the price looked more likely.

Adrian

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Re: Dividend return

#399881

Postby monabri » March 28th, 2021, 6:55 pm

TW could have been bought for just under 14p in 2008 ( Oct)....currently 180p.

The 2019 dividend alone would have covered the shareprice!


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