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Arb HYP adjustment

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Arborbridge
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Arb HYP adjustment

#405652

Postby Arborbridge » April 20th, 2021, 6:16 pm

No topup this month, but what I have done is acted on my plan to make my RIO and BHP holdings more nearly equal weight. You can see that in the current HYP list, in capital weight order.



And here is the sector weighting:-



I've just used the sector weighting in HYPTUSS as I don't get too fussed about the nuances. No cash available for a true topup, so there it rests for the moment.

Incidentally, I notice my HYP reached it's greatest ever capital size this week. Not highest in terms of price per income unit, but highest in terms of accumulation units and £s. A cheerful piece of news even though the income is not yet back to previous levels.

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405712

Postby MDW1954 » April 20th, 2021, 10:56 pm

I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954

Arborbridge
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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405838

Postby Arborbridge » April 21st, 2021, 1:58 pm

MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954


Well, an interesting point: you do believe I should have more? One does not want to stray further into diworsification ;)

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405848

Postby tjh290633 » April 21st, 2021, 2:35 pm

MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954

I was fooled by seeing the 3 REITS in individual sectors. I would have (and in fact do) lump them under "Property".

TJH

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405859

Postby Arborbridge » April 21st, 2021, 3:34 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954

I was fooled by seeing the 3 REITS in individual sectors. I would have (and in fact do) lump them under "Property".

TJH


So do I, in my head at least. On this occasion, for quickness I took the easy way out and published the table just as it comes, from HYPTUSS. Unless one is concerned to study the exact size of the sector, it isn't of great import.

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405868

Postby MDW1954 » April 21st, 2021, 3:59 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954


Well, an interesting point: you do believe I should have more? One does not want to stray further into diworsification ;)


You have 26% of your portfolio in various forms of financial services. Many of those businesses will be subject to the PRA's strictures on dividends and capital resilience etc.

You have just 4.25% of your portfolio in REITs, which must pay out dividends or lose their REIT status.

MDW1954

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#405871

Postby CatcheeMonkee » April 21st, 2021, 4:16 pm

MDW1954 wrote:
There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954


Any particular ones that you fancy right now? Thank you.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418407

Postby Arborbridge » June 9th, 2021, 3:31 pm

Here is my current top of the table list - 12 shares from the total of 36. There's not much to picker about this month - I shall top up Imperial Brands tomorrow as I can't see compelling reason not to. Interesting to see Tesco at number 2, which could be in the running were the yield higher - at present it is well below my average yield.
My usual rules apply to which choice I make: shares need to be below 5% for income and capital cost and preferably below median weight with a yield not less than 10% below my average - currently 5%.



I shall also add a new holding tomorrow - Greencoat UKW. Yes, I've decided to follow the fashion on this occasion as it will add some diversity to my energy sector. The holding will be just over half sized, so it will probably be near top of the rankings next month.

That's all for this month of June.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418422

Postby idpickering » June 9th, 2021, 4:51 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954


Well, an interesting point: you do believe I should have more? One does not want to stray further into diworsification ;)



I think you've done the right thing buying into UKW. As you know, I hold Primary Health Properties (PHP), Tritax Big Box (BBOX), and a more recent addition to my HYP, Greencoat UK Wind (UKW). I'm looking seriously at adding The Rewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) to the pot. I must admit that I'm dithering about doing so as they're not all that dissimilar to UKW imho? I'm happy to be put right on this to be honest, without drifting to far from the topic of your thread though. Should I buy TRIG, I don't think that'd be diworsification though, imho.

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418427

Postby Arborbridge » June 9th, 2021, 5:00 pm

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:I think that one of the lessons of 2020 is that more REITs are a good idea. You hold three: BBOX, PHP, and BLND. (I don't really understand the sector split, either: 'retail REITs' versus other REITs.)

There are plenty of cheap higher-yielding REITs out there.

MDW1954


Well, an interesting point: you do believe I should have more? One does not want to stray further into diworsification ;)



As for the REITS, as you know, I hold Primary Health Properties (PHP), Tritax Big Box (BBOX), and a more recent addition to my HYP, Greencoat UK Wind (UKW). I'm looking seriously at adding The Rewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) to the pot. I must admit that I'm dithering about doing so as they're not all that dissimilar to UKW imho? I'm happy to be put right on this to be honest, without drifting to far from the topic of your thread though.

Ian.


TRIG would add some solar to the mix, but as MDW commented, he's often considered it but the truth is he's never bought it. Something else is always ahead in the choice. I had considered it for my IT basket.
My remark about following fashion refers back to Dod's comment, though my following the fashion in buying BBOX and PHP has done well - whereas my purchase of one of Dod's choices, Chesnara, is still 25% under water. That's life! - you make your bed and lie on it. 8-)

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418437

Postby idpickering » June 9th, 2021, 5:18 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
TRIG would add some solar to the mix, but as MDW commented, he's often considered it but the truth is he's never bought it. Something else is always ahead in the choice. I had considered it for my IT basket.
My remark about following fashion refers back to Dod's comment, though my following the fashion in buying BBOX and PHP has done well - whereas my purchase of one of Dod's choices, Chesnara, is still 25% under water. That's life! - you make your bed and lie on it. 8-)

Arb.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this Arb.

This is from HL re TRIG;

Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited is a Guernsey-based closed-ended investment company. The Company invests in operational renewable energy generation projects, predominantly in onshore and offshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) segments, across the United Kingdom and Northern Europe. Its portfolio consists of over 70 wind, solar and battery storage projects with aggregate net generating capacity of approximately 1,664megawatts (MW). Its assets are located across United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Sweden and Germany. InfraRed Capital Partners Limited is the Company’s investment manager.


https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... nformation

I'm not sure of the %age sector split though?

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418448

Postby Arborbridge » June 9th, 2021, 5:48 pm

idpickering wrote:
I'm not sure of the %age sector split though?

Ian.


You can find more info here, including links to the company accounts:-

https://www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/0P0000Z760

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418497

Postby MDW1954 » June 9th, 2021, 11:51 pm

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
TRIG would add some solar to the mix, but as MDW commented, he's often considered it but the truth is he's never bought it. Something else is always ahead in the choice. I had considered it for my IT basket.
My remark about following fashion refers back to Dod's comment, though my following the fashion in buying BBOX and PHP has done well - whereas my purchase of one of Dod's choices, Chesnara, is still 25% under water. That's life! - you make your bed and lie on it. 8-)

Arb.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this Arb.

This is from HL re TRIG;

Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited is a Guernsey-based closed-ended investment company. The Company invests in operational renewable energy generation projects, predominantly in onshore and offshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) segments, across the United Kingdom and Northern Europe. Its portfolio consists of over 70 wind, solar and battery storage projects with aggregate net generating capacity of approximately 1,664megawatts (MW). Its assets are located across United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Sweden and Germany. InfraRed Capital Partners Limited is the Company’s investment manager.


https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... nformation

I'm not sure of the %age sector split though?

Ian.


Ian,

Go to TRIG's own website. Download the last two or three annual reports, and the latest half-yearly report, if applicable.

They will give you much more information than HL's potted summary.

MDW1954

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418514

Postby idpickering » June 10th, 2021, 6:00 am

MDW1954 wrote:
Ian,

Go to TRIG's own website. Download the last two or three annual reports, and the latest half-yearly report, if applicable.

They will give you much more information than HL's potted summary.

MDW1954


Thanks for your ever welcome input Malcolm. I shall certainly do as you kindly suggest. Tbh though, going to the horses' mouth before I invest is something I tend to do anyway.

OK, back to Arbs' thread topic.

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418562

Postby Dod101 » June 10th, 2021, 10:47 am

Arborbridge wrote:Here is my current top of the table list - 12 shares from the total of 36. There's not much to picker about this month - I shall top up Imperial Brands tomorrow as I can't see compelling reason not to. Interesting to see Tesco at number 2, which could be in the running were the yield higher - at present it is well below my average yield.
My usual rules apply to which choice I make: shares need to be below 5% for income and capital cost and preferably below median weight with a yield not less than 10% below my average - currently 5%.



I shall also add a new holding tomorrow - Greencoat UKW. Yes, I've decided to follow the fashion on this occasion as it will add some diversity to my energy sector. The holding will be just over half sized, so it will probably be near top of the rankings next month.

That's all for this month of June.


There is something weird about Imperial Brands with a yield like that but it seems to be the way of the tobacco companies with BAT not far behind. Chesnara is in the same ballpark I see. The thing they all have in common is that there has been little or no capital growth but I guess a total return of 8% pa is not bad, assuming that the dividends are secure. Mind you, I would be working on the trailing yield, not the forecast yield. I do not understand why anyone would work on a forecast yield. There is enough crystal ball gazing in investing without introducing that one.

I hold all three and must take a closer look at them some time.

Dod

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418639

Postby funduffer » June 10th, 2021, 3:07 pm

Dod101 wrote: Mind you, I would be working on the trailing yield, not the forecast yield. I do not understand why anyone would work on a forecast yield. There is enough crystal ball gazing in investing without introducing that one.

Dod


Surely with the year we have just had, with dividend cuts and suspensions aplenty, and recovery now underway, you don't think we are going to have the same again do you?

I would have thought a consensus forecast yield would be more accurate than a trailing yield at this point in time .

FD

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418640

Postby Itsallaguess » June 10th, 2021, 3:16 pm

funduffer wrote:
I would have thought a consensus forecast yield would be more accurate than a trailing yield at this point in time.


Agreed - but even beyond that, surely anyone even using a 'trailing yield' is forecasting that this will actually be the case, and we know that it isn't always...

Assuming / Forecasting / Predicting - they're all the same really, in terms of any income-investor making a claim on what's likely to happen in the future...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418643

Postby Arborbridge » June 10th, 2021, 3:28 pm

Dod101 wrote:Mind you, I would be working on the trailing yield, not the forecast yield. I do not understand why anyone would work on a forecast yield. There is enough crystal ball gazing in investing without introducing that one.

I hold all three and must take a closer look at them some time.

Dod


I don't really believe that a trailing yield is "more accurate" - except in the sense that it is an accurate statement of history. It is not more likely to be an accurate predictor of the future than a group of analysts coming to a conclusion based on the know facts plus whatever they glean from the company itself.

All I can tell you is that looking ahead for my income prediction has worked tolerably well over the years at the portfolio level - within a few percent: could we really ask for better than that? I think not. There will always be black swan events which prove the rule - e,g, BP's disaster and covid or Brexit - but in general I cannot see the point of looking backwards when one has a handy way of looking forwards which is known to be accurate enough - for me anyway.

Naturally, in any particularly case a forecast could be completely wrong, but I'll live with those exceptions - those case are likely to be completely wrong if one uses historic dividends as a predictor too!

Using HYPTUSS, if one does, one can choose either method and it is so easy to run I see no reason to avoid doing so.

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418655

Postby Dod101 » June 10th, 2021, 3:57 pm

Well obviously using the trailing yield for say HSBC over the past year is going to err on the side of caution I hope but how do you do a forecast yield for that, or I suppose how does a bunch of analysts do that? So I take the current share price and the trailing yield. Actually I seldom buy motivated by the yield anyway. I am much more interested to know why the market is allowing such a high yield for Imperial Brands and whether that is 8.8% as a forecast or 8.5% based on the trailing yield is neither here nor there. It bothers me especially at the moment when there has been so much disruption to dividends in general.

But I really cannot be bothered to argue the case all over again.

Dod

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418668

Postby Arborbridge » June 10th, 2021, 4:42 pm

Dod101 wrote:Well obviously using the trailing yield for say HSBC over the past year is going to err on the side of caution I hope but how do you do a forecast yield for that, or I suppose how does a bunch of analysts do that? So I take the current share price and the trailing yield. Actually I seldom buy motivated by the yield anyway. I am much more interested to know why the market is allowing such a high yield for Imperial Brands and whether that is 8.8% as a forecast or 8.5% based on the trailing yield is neither here nor there. It bothers me especially at the moment when there has been so much disruption to dividends in general.

But I really cannot be bothered to argue the case all over again.

Dod


Just a point of order: it's the dividend forecast we are concerned with initially, not the yield.
I'm not concerned as to how they do it: I'm happy to know that in most cases it works out near enough correctly for my purposes. There's nothing to argue about, Dod, we are each happy with our ways and that's enough 8-)

Arb.


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